Langevin dynamics, large deviations and instantons for the quasi-geostrophic model and two-dimensional Euler equations

We investigate a class of simple models for Langevin dynamics of turbulent flows, including the one-layer quasi-geostrophic equation and the two-dimensional Euler equations. Starting from a path integral representation of the transition probability, we compute the most probable fluctuation paths from one attractor to any state within its basin of attraction. We prove that such fluctuation paths are the time reversed trajectories of the relaxation paths for a corresponding dual dynamics, which are also within the framework of quasi-geostrophic Langevin dynamics. Cases with or without detailed balance are studied. We discuss a specific example for which the stationary measure displays either a second order (continuous) or a first order (discontinuous) phase transition and a tricritical point. In situations where a first order phase transition is observed, the dynamics are bistable. Then, the transition paths between two coexisting attractors are instantons (fluctuation paths from an attractor to a saddle), which are related to the relaxation paths of the corresponding dual dynamics. For this example, we show how one can analytically determine the instantons and compute the transition probabilities for rare transitions between two attractors.

A methodological framework for modeling pavement maintenance costs for projects with performance-based contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

A Methodological Framework for Modeling Pavement Maintenance Costs for Projects with Performance-based Contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Multi-Type Markov Branching Processes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Evaluación de costo efectividad de la profilaxis versus tratamiento a demanda en pacientes con Hemofilia A moderada y severa para prevenir sangrado articular de una aseguradora en Colombia

Introducción: En Colombia existe un protocolo de manejo para pacientes con hemofilia A severa sin inhibidores que recomienda el manejo de profilaxis primaria y secundaria con FVIII. Objetivos: Estimar la relación incremental de costo-efectividad (RICE) de la profilaxis con Factor VIII vs tratamiento a demanda para prevenir sangrados articulares en pacientes con hemofilia A moderada y severa de una aseguradora en Colombia. Materiales y Métodos: Se adaptó un modelo de Markov desde la perspectiva del tercer pagador. Las probabilidades de transición se ajustaron mediante un modelo de regresión logística multinomial explicadas por la edad y el peso. Las tasas de eventos son anuales. Las efectividades se extrajeron de la cohorte de la aseguradora y de la literatura. Los costos incluyeron el FVIII, medicamentos, hospitalización, procedimientos quirúrgicos, apoyo diagnóstico y consultas médicas. La tasa de descuento fue del 3%. Resultados: En pacientes con hemofilia A moderada y severa la profilaxis con FVIII evitará en promedio 7 sangrados articulares, el RICE para el sangrado articular es de $303.457. Conclusiones: La profilaxis con Factor VIII es una estrategia costo-efectiva en el manejo de pacientes con hemofilia A moderada y severa para la aseguradora, disminuyendo el número de sangrados articulares al año.

Radiative electron capture and subsequent radiative decay in collisions of U89+ ions with N-2

To evaluate the radiative electron capture for the collisions of U89+ ion with N-2, radiative recombination cross sections and the corresponding emitted photon energies are calculated from the ground state 1s(2)2s to 1s(2)2snl(j) (2 <= n <= 9, 0 <= l <= 6) using the newly developed relativistic radiative recombination program RERR06 based on the multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock method. The x-ray spectra for radiative electron capture in the collision have been obtained by convolving the radiative recombination cross sections and the Compton profile of N2. Good agreement is found between the calculated and experimental spectra. In addition, the transition energy levels and probabilities among the 147 levels from the captured 1s(2)2snl(j) have been calculated. From the calculated results, radiative decay cascade processes followed by the radiative electron capture have also been studied with the help of multistep model and coupled rate equations, respectively. The present results not only make us understand the details of the radiative electron captures and the radiative decay cascade spectra in the experiment but also show a more efficient way to obtain the cascade spectra. Finally, the equivalence between the multistep model and coupled rate equations has been shown under a proper condition and the latter can hopefully be extended to investigate other cascade processes.

Physical interpretation of the spectral radiative signature in the transition zone between cloud-free and cloudy regions

One-second-resolution zenith radiance measure- ments from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement pro- gram’s new shortwave spectrometer (SWS) provide a unique opportunity to analyze the transition zone between cloudy and cloud-free air, which has considerable bearing on the aerosol indirect effect. In the transition zone, we find a re- markable linear relationship between the sum and difference of radiances at 870 and 1640 nm wavelengths. The intercept of the relationship is determined primarily by aerosol prop- erties, and the slope by cloud properties. We then show that this linearity can be predicted from simple theoretical con- siderations and furthermore that it supports the hypothesis of inhomogeneous mixing, whereby optical depth increases as a cloud is approached but the effective drop size remains un- changed.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual’s previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag–recapture data and tag–recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Aerosol characteristics and radiative impacts over the Arabian Sea during the intermonsoon season: Results from ARMEX field campaign

During the second phase of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX-II), extensive measurements of spectral aerosol optical depth, mass concentration, and mass size distribution of ambient aerosols as well as mass concentration of aerosol black carbon (BC) were made onboard a research vessel during the intermonsoon period (i.e., when the monsoon winds are in transition from northeasterlies to westerlies/ southwesterlies) over the Arabian Sea (AS) adjoining the Indian Peninsula. Simultaneous measurements of spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) were made at different regions over the adjoining Indian landmass. Mean AODs (at 500-nm wavelength) over the ocean (similar to0.44) were comparable to those over the coastal land (similar to0.47), but were lower than the values observed over the plateau regions of central Indian Peninsula (similar to0.61). The aerosol properties were found to respond distinctly with respect to change in the trajectories, with higher optical depths and flatter AOD spectra associated with trajectories indicating advection from west Asia, and northwest and west-coastal India. On average, BC constituted only similar to2.2% to total aerosol mass compared to the climatological values of similar to6% over the coastal land during the same season. These data are used to characterize the physical properties of aerosols and to assess the resulting short-wave direct aerosol forcing. The mean values were similar to27 W m(-2) at the surface and -12 W m(-2) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), resulting in a net atmospheric forcing of +15 W m(-2). The forcing also depended on the region from where the advection predominates. The surface and atmospheric forcing were in the range -40 to -57 W m(-2) and +27 to +39 W m(-2), respectively, corresponding to advection from the west Asian and western coastal India where they were as low as -19 and +10 W m(-2), respectively, when the advection was mainly from the Bay of Bengal and from central/peninsular India. In all these cases, the net atmospheric forcing (heating) efficiency was lower than the values reported for northern Indian Ocean during northern winter, which is attributed to the reduced BC mass fraction.

Synthesis, photoluminescence and Judd-Ofelt parameters of LiNa3P2O7:Eu3+ orthorhombic microstructures

We report, for the first time, the photoluminescence properties of Eu3+-doped LiNa3P2O7 phosphor, synthesized by a facile solid-state reaction method in air atmosphere. The crystal structure and phase purity of the phosphors were analyzed by X-ray diffraction analysis. Orthorhombic structural morphology was identified by scanning electron microscopy. The phosphate groups in the phosphor were confirmed by Fourier transform infrared analysis. Bandgap of the phosphor was calculated from the diffuse reflectance spectra data using Kubelka-Munk function. Under 395-nm UV excitation, the phosphors show signs of emitting red color due to the D-5(0) -> F-7(2) transition. In accordance with Judd-Ofelt theory, spectroscopic parameters such as oscillator intensity parameter Omega(t) (t = 2), spontaneous emission probabilities, fluorescence branching ratios and radiative lifetimes were calculated and analyzed for the first time in this system.

Spectroscopic properties and Judd-Ofelt theory analysis of Dy3+ doped oxyfluoride silicate glass

Dy3+ doped oxyfluoride silicate glass was prepared and its optical absorption, 1.3 mu m emission, and upconversion luminescence properties were studied. Furthermore, the Judd-Ofelt [Phys. Rev. 127, 750 (1962); J. Chem. Phys. 37, 511 (1962)] intensity parameters, oscillator strengths, spontaneous transition probability, fluorescence branching ratio and radiative lifetime were calculated by Judd-Ofelt theory, while stimulated emission cross section of H-6(9/2)+F-6(11/2)-> H-6(15/2) transition was calculated by McCumber theory [Phys. Rev. A. 134, 299 (1964)]. According to the obtained Judd-Ofelt intensity parameters Omega(2)=2.69x10(-20) cm(2), Omega(4)=1.64x10(-20) cm(2), and Omega(6)=1.64x10(-20) cm(2), the radiative lifetime was calculated to be 810 mu s for 1.3 mu m emission, whose full width at half maximum and sigma(e) were 115 nm and 2.21x10(-20)cm(2), respectively. In addition, near infrared to visible upconversion luminescence was observed and evaluated. The results suggest that Dy3+ doped oxyfluoride silicate glass can be used as potential host material for developing broadband optical amplifiers and laser applications.

Effect of hydroxyl groups on nonradiative decay of Er3+: I-4(13/2)-> I-4(15/2) transition in zinc tellurite glasses

A series of zinc tellurite glasses of 75TeO(2)-20ZnO-(5-x)La2O3-xEr(2)O(3) (x=0.02, 0.05, and 0.1 mol%) with the different hydroxl groups were prepared by the conventional melt-quenching method. Infrared spectra were measured in order to estimate the exact content of OH- groups in samples. The observed increase of the fluorescence lifetime with the oxygen bubbling time has been related to the reduction in the OH- content concentration as evidenced by IR transmission spectra. Various nonradiative decay rates from I-4(13/2) of Er3+ with. the change of OH content were determined from the fluorescence lifetime and radiative decay rates were calculated on the basis of Judd-Ofelt theory. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spontaneous emission from radiative chiral nematic liquid crystals at the photonic band-gap edge: An investigation into the role of the density of photon states near resonance

In this article, we investigate the spontaneous emission properties of radiating molecules embedded in a chiral nematic liquid crystal, under the assumption that the electronic transition frequency is close to the photonic edge mode of the structure, i.e., at resonance. We take into account the transition broadening and the decay of electromagnetic field modes supported by the so-called "mirrorless"cavity. We employ the Jaynes-Cummings Hamiltonian to describe the electron interaction with the electromagnetic field, focusing on the mode with the diffracting polarization in the chiral nematic layer. As known in these structures, the density of photon states, calculated via the Wigner method, has distinct peaks on either side of the photonic band gap, which manifests itself as a considerable modification of the emission spectrum. We demonstrate that, near resonance, there are notable differences between the behavior of the density of states and the spontaneous emission profile of these structures. In addition, we examine in some detail the case of the logarithmic peak exhibited in the density of states in two-dimensional photonic structures and obtain analytic relations for the Lamb shift and the broadening of the atomic transition in the emission spectrum. The dynamical behavior of the atom-field system is described by a system of two first-order differential equations, solved using the Green's-function method and the Fourier transform. The emission spectra are then calculated and compared with experimental data. © 2013 American Physical Society.