Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements

Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.

Modelling impacts of pollution in river systems: a new dispersion model and a case study of mine discharges in the Abrud, Aries and Mures river system in Transylvania, Romania

A new model of dispersion has been developed to simulate the impact of pollutant discharges on river systems. The model accounts for the main dispersion processes operating in rivers as well as the dilution from incoming tributaries and first-order kinetic decay processes. The model is dynamic and simulates the hourly behaviour of river flow and pollutants along river systems. The model has been applied to the Aries and Mures River System in Romania and has been used to assess the impacts of potential dam releases from the Roia Montan Mine in Transylvania, Romania. The question of mine water release is investigated under a range of scenarios. The impacts on pollution levels downstream at key sites and at the border with Hungary are investigated.

An HMV mapping study of a pulsating jet system

A new system for the generation of hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV) is presented. This system consists of an oscillating jet produced through the mechanical vibration of a large diaphragm. The structure of the cell is such that a relatively small vibration is transferred to a large fluid flow at the jet outlet. Positioning of an electrode (Pt, 0.5 mm or 25 mu m diameter) over the exit of this jet enables the detection of the modulated flow of liquid. While this flow creates modest mass transfer rates (time averaged similar to 0.015 cm s(-1)) it can also be used to create a HMV system where a 'lock-in' approach is adopted to investigate the redox chemistry in question. This is demonstrated for the Fe(CN)(6)(3-/4-) redox system. Here 'lock-in' to the modulated hydrodynamic signal is achieved through the deployment of bespoke software. The apparatus and procedure is shown to produce a simple and efficient way to obtain the desired signal. In addition the spatial variation of the HMV signal, phase correction and time averaged current with respect to the jet orifice is presented. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A question of identity - wiring in the human

This paper discusses the RFID implants for identification via a sensor network. Brain-computer implants linked in to a wireless network. Biometric identification via body sensors is also discussed. The use of a network as a means for remote and distance monitoring of humans opens up a range of potential uses. Where implanted identification is concerned this immediately offers high security access to specific areas by means of only an RFID device. If a neural implant is employed then clearly the information exchanged with a network can take on a much richer form, allowing for identification and response to an individual's needs based on the signals apparent on their nervous system.

Revisiting the emergence of the modern business enterprise: entrepreneurship and the Singer global distribution system

This paper approaches the question of why entrepreneurial firms exist from a broad business historical perspective. It observes that the original development of the modern business enterprise was very strongly associated with entrepreneurial innovation rather than an extension of managerial routine. The widely-used theory of the entrepreneur as a specialist in judgmental decision making is applied to the particular point in time when entrepreneurs had to develop novel organizational designs in what Chandler described as the prelude to the ‘managerial revolution’. The paper illustrates how the theory of entrepreneurship then best explains the rise of the modern corporation by focusing on the case study of vertical integration par excellence, Singer.

The emergence and use of diagramming in system dynamics: a critical account

The paper reviews the leading diagramming methods employed in system dynamics to communicate the contents of models. The main ideas and historical development of the field are first outlined. Two diagramming methods—causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and stock/flow diagrams (SFDs)—are then described and their advantages and limitations discussed. A set of broad research directions is then outlined. These concern: the abilities of different diagrams to communicate different ideas, the role that diagrams have in group model building, and the question of whether diagrams can be an adequate substitute for simulation modelling. The paper closes by suggesting that although diagrams alone are insufficient, they have many benefits. However, since these benefits have emerged only as ‘craft wisdom’, a more rigorous programme of research into the diagrams' respective attributes is called for.

Priority research questions for the UK food system

The rise of food security up international political, societal and academic agendas has led to increasing interest in novel means of improving primary food production and reducing waste. There are however, also many ‘post-farm gate’ activities that are critical to food security, including processing, packaging, distributing, retailing, cooking and consuming. These activities all affect a range of important food security elements, notably availability, affordability and other aspects of access, nutrition and safety. Addressing the challenge of universal food security, in the context of a number of other policy goals (e.g. social, economic and environmental sustainability), is of keen interest to a range of UK stakeholders but requires an up-to-date evidence base and continuous innovation. An exercise was therefore conducted, under the auspices of the UK Global Food Security Programme, to identify priority research questions with a focus on the UK food system (though the outcomes may be broadly applicable to other developed nations). Emphasis was placed on incorporating a wide range of perspectives (‘world views’) from different stakeholder groups: policy, private sector, non-governmental organisations, advocacy groups and academia. A total of 456 individuals submitted 820 questions from which 100 were selected by a process of online voting and a three-stage workshop voting exercise. These 100 final questions were sorted into 10 themes and the ‘top’ question for each theme identified by a further voting exercise. This step also allowed four different stakeholder groups to select the top 7–8 questions from their perspectives. Results of these voting exercises are presented. It is clear from the wide range of questions prioritised in this exercise that the different stakeholder groups identified specific research needs on a range of post-farm gate activities and food security outcomes. Evidence needs related to food affordability, nutrition and food safety (all key elements of food security) featured highly in the exercise. While there were some questions relating to climate impacts on production, other important topics for food security (e.g. trade, transport, preference and cultural needs) were not viewed as strongly by the participants.

Should system dynamics be described as a 'hard' or 'deterministic' systems approach?

This paper explores the criticism that system dynamics is a ‘hard’ or ‘deterministic’ systems approach. This criticism is seen to have four interpretations and each is addressed from the perspectives of social theory and systems science. Firstly, system dynamics is shown to offer not prophecies but Popperian predictions. Secondly, it is shown to involve the view that system structure only partially, not fully, determines human behaviour. Thirdly, the field's assumptions are shown not to constitute a grand content theory—though its structural theory and its attachment to the notion of causality in social systems are acknowledged. Finally, system dynamics is shown to be significantly different from systems engineering. The paper concludes that such confusions have arisen partially because of limited communication at the theoretical level from within the system dynamics community but also because of imperfect command of the available literature on the part of external commentators. Improved communication on theoretical issues is encouraged, though it is observed that system dynamics will continue to justify its assumptions primarily from the point of view of practical problem solving. The answer to the question in the paper's title is therefore: on balance, no.

TNF-alpha mediated transport of NF-kappaB to the nucleus is independent of the cytoskeleton-based transport system in non-neuronal cells

In unstimulated cells, proteins of the nuclear factor kappaB (NF-kappaB) transcription factor family are sequestered in the cytoplasm through interactions with IkappaB inhibitor proteins. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) activates the degradation of IkappaB-alpha and the nuclear import of cytoplasmic NF-kappaB. Nuclear localization of numerous cellular proteins is mediated by the ability of the cytoskeleton, usually microtubules, to direct their perinuclear accumulation. In a former study we have shown that activated NF-kappaB rapidly moves from distal processes in neurons towards the nucleus. The fast transport rate suggests the involvement of motor proteins in the transport of NF-kappaB. Here we address the question how NF-kappaB arrives at the nuclear membrane before import in non-neuronal cells, i.e., by diffusion alone or with the help of active transport mechanisms. Using confocal microscopy imaging and analysis of nuclear protein extracts, we show that NF-kappaB movement through the cytoplasm to the nucleus is independent of the cytoskeleton, in the three cell lines investigated here. Additionally we demonstrate that NF-kappaB p65 is not associated with the dynein/dynactin molecular motor complex. We propose that cells utilize two distinct mechanisms of NF-kappaB transport: (1) signaling via diffusion over short distances in non-neuronal cells and (2) transport via motor proteins that move along the cytoskeleton in neuronal processes where the distances between sites of NF-kappaB activation and nucleus can be vast.

Imbalanced land-surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system

There has been a significant increase in the skill and resolution of numerical weather prediction models (NWPs) in recent decades, extending the time scales of useful weather predictions. The land-surface models (LSMs) of NWPs are often employed in hydrological applications, which raises the question of how hydrologically representative LSMs really are. In this paper, precipitation (P), evaporation (E) and runoff (R) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global models were evaluated against observational products. The forecasts differ substantially from observed data for key hydrological variables. In addition, imbalanced surface water budgets, mostly caused by data assimilation, were found on both global (P-E) and basin scales (P-E-R), with the latter being more important. Modeled surface fluxes should be used with care in hydrological applications and further improvement in LSMs in terms of process descriptions, resolution and estimation of uncertainties is needed to accurately describe the land-surface water budgets.

Investigation of the hypothalamic defensive system in the mouse

The hypothalamus plays especially important roles in various endocrine, autonomic, and behavioral responses that guarantee the survival of both the individual and the species. In the rat, a distinct hypothalamic defensive circuit has been defined as critical for integrating predatory threats, raising an important question as to whether this concept could be applied to other prey species. To start addressing this matter, in the present study, we investigated, in another prey species (the mouse), the pattern of hypothalamic Fos immunoreactivity in response to exposure to a predator (a rat, using the Rat Exposure Test). During rat exposure, mice remained concealed in the home chamber for a longer period of time and increased freezing and risk assessment activity. We were able to show that the mouse and the rat present a similar pattern of hypothalamic activation in response to a predator. Of particular note, similar to what has been described for the rat, we observed in the mouse that predator exposure induces a striking activation in the elements of the medial hypothalamic defensive system, namely, the anterior hypothalamic nucleus, the dorsomedial part of the ventromedial hypothalamic nucleus and the dorsal premammillary nucleus. Moreover, as described for the rat, predator-exposed mice also presented increased Fos levels in the autonomic and parvicellular parts of the paraventricular hypothalamic nucleus, lateral preoptic area and subfornical region of the lateral hypothalamic area. In conclusion, the present data give further support to the concept that a specific hypothalamic defensive circuit should be preserved across different prey species. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solcellsdrivet FTX-system för miljonprogramshus : Tjärna Ängar, Borlänge

Projektet omfattade undersökning och framtagande av ett solcellssystem med förmåga att försörja ett FTX-system i ett flerbostadshus från miljonprogrammet med el. För att kunna bedöma storlek och utformning av komponenter har information tagits genom: Informationssökning via databaser, kurslitteratur och intervjuer Simuleringar av solceller i datorprogrammet PVSYST Modulering av ventilationskanaler i datorprogrammet MagiCAD Syftet var främst att undersöka om det gick att få fram ett teoretiskt fungerande system med avseende på både solceller och ventilation. Beroende på vad resultatet blev skulle även ekonomin i projektet undersökas. Undersökningen visade att det teoretiskt ska gå att installera solceller för elframställning som klarar av att täcka FTX-systemets elbehov på årsbasis. Solcellerna bedöms även producera tillräckligt med el för viss övrig elkrävande utrustning under stora delar av året. Det visade sig även att det skulle gå att få solcellerna ekonomiskt lönsamma om en kalkyltid på 14 år används. Metoden som använts för dessa resultat är noga beskriven och är med små förändringar tillämpbar för ett stort antal byggnader i det svenska byggnadsbeståndet. En viktig slutsats är att om fastighetsägarna kan se 15 år fram i tiden för en investering i solenergi, skulle det innebära inte bara miljömässiga utan även ekonomiska vinster. Det finns redan idag kunnande, teknik och produkter för att utvinna en stor del av fastigheternas elbehov genom solens energi.

Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines

An underwater gas pipeline is the portion of the pipeline that crosses a river beneath its bottom. Underwater gas pipelines are subject to increasing dangers as time goes by. An accident at an underwater gas pipeline can lead to technological and environmental disaster on the scale of an entire region. Therefore, timely troubleshooting of all underwater gas pipelines in order to prevent any potential accidents will remain a pressing task for the industry. The most important aspect of resolving this challenge is the quality of the automated system in question. Now the industry doesn't have any automated system that fully meets the needs of the experts working in the field maintaining underwater gas pipelines. Principle Aim of this Research: This work aims to develop a new system of automated monitoring which would simplify the process of evaluating the technical condition and decision making on planning and preventive maintenance and repair work on the underwater gas pipeline. Objectives: Creation a shared model for a new, automated system via IDEF3; Development of a new database system which would store all information about underwater gas pipelines; Development a new application that works with database servers, and provides an explanation of the results obtained from the server; Calculation of the values MTBF for specified pipelines based on quantitative data obtained from tests of this system. Conclusion: The new, automated system PodvodGazExpert has been developed for timely and qualitative determination of the physical conditions of underwater gas pipeline; The basis of the mathematical analysis of this new, automated system uses principal component analysis method; The process of determining the physical condition of an underwater gas pipeline with this new, automated system increases the MTBF by a factor of 8.18 above the existing system used today in the industry.

Electoral institutions,cleavage structures,and the number of parties

Theory: A classic question in political science concems ",hat deteImines the number of parties that compete in a given polity. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to answering this question, one that emphasizes the role of electorallaws in structuring coalitional incentives, another that emphasizes the importance of pre-existing social cleavages. In tbis paper, we view the number of parties as a product of the interaction between these two forces, following Powell (1982) and Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994). Hypotheses: The effective number of parties in a polity should be a multiplicative rather than an additive function ofthe peImissiveness ofthe electoral system and the heterogeneity ofthe society. Methods: Multiple regression on cross-sectional aggregate electoral statistics. Unlike previous studies, we (1) do not confine attention to developed democracies; (2) explicitly control for the influence of presidential elections, taking account of whether they are concurrent or nonconcurrent, and ofthe effective number ofpresidential candidates; and (3) also control for the presence and operation of upper tiers in legislative elections. Results: The hypothesis is confiImed, both as regards the number of legislative and the number of presidential parties .