China and India’s Maritime Geostrategies:: Implications for International Maritime Security and Scenarios for 2030

Dissertação de Mestrado em Estratégia

Un modelo contable para la evaluación económico-financiera en escenarios futuros de la empresa agropecuaria. An accounting model for the economic and financial evaluation of future scenarios in farm enterprises.

El problema: En todo momento y sobre todo cuando estamos en presencia de escenarios económicos turbulentos resulta imprescindible utilizar herramientas que permitan realizar análisis de sensitividad sobre las distintas situaciones que podrían plantearse. La elaboración de modelos matemáticos deterministas desde las aplicaciones realizadas por Richard Mattessich han constituido un instrumento idóneo para el caso de empresas comerciales o industriales. Los modelos informáticos utilizados para las empresas agropecuarias han abordado fundamentalmente la temática relacionada con la producción, no así las otras variables económicas y financieras. Por lo tanto, entendemos que se hace necesario trabajar con modelos agropecuarios que comprendan todas las variables económicas y financieras, de manera de observar otro tipo de cuestiones, tales como: el modo de financiarse, los costos financieros, necesidades de capital de trabajo. Hipótesis: Es posible, a través de la utilización de la información contable en sentido prospectivo, interpretar adecuadamente los escenarios futuros de las organizaciones agropecuarias, cuantificando los impactos que generan tanto las estrategias y políticas aplicables, como las distorsiones del contexto. Objetivo general: determinar la incidencia de las decisiones internas y las que provengan del funcionamiento del sistema económico, a través de la información contable prospectiva. Objetivos específicos: a. Describir los impactos que se producen en la estructura patrimonial, financiera y en los resultados, como consecuencia de los cambios en las estrategias y políticas de la empresa agropecuaria, así como los efectos macroeconómicos en la estructura de la empresa que pudieran estar conmoviendo la gestión económico-financiera. b. Identificar mecanismos y proponer criterios para la elaboración de modelos que permitan visualizar los impactos en los escenarios futuros y las adecuaciones necesarias en la estructura que permitan soportar las modificaciones. Metodología: será un estudio a nivel teórico, donde una vez identificadas las variables y planteados los modelos, se propondrán distintas situaciones y se testearán las respuestas. Resultados esperados: lograr un avance en la evaluación económico-financiera prospectiva de empresas agropecuarias y constituir un avance para futuras investigaciones. Importancia del proyecto: La producción agropecuaria es vital tanto para el desarrollo económico de Argentina, como en particular para la provincia de Córdoba. Elaborar herramientas que eficientizen la administración de este tipo de empresas, redundará en beneficio colectivo. Pertinencia: El producto verificable será la construcción de un modelo distinto a los actuales, tanto en su desarrollo, objetivo al que está destinado y sencillez de su aplicación, posibilitando la inserción del productor en el proceso de planificación, reduciendo el riesgo en la toma de decisiones. Esperando generar un avance sobre los modelos preexistente.

C allele of the IL-1B-511 SNP is associated with higher risk for Gastric Cancer and its premalignant lesion : a prospective case-control study in Peru

Magdeburg, Univ., Medizin. Fakultät, Diss., 2008

Post-Acute Coronary Syndrome Alcohol Abuse: Prospective Evaluation in the ERICO Study

Background:Some studies have indicated alcohol abuse as one of the contributors to the development of cardiovascular disease, particularly coronary heart disease. However, this relationship is controversial.Objective:To investigate the relationship between post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) alcohol abuse in the Acute Coronary Syndrome Registry Strategy (ERICO Study).Methods:146 participants from the ERICO Study answered structured questionnaires and underwent laboratory evaluations at baseline, 30 days and 180 days after ACS. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was applied to assess harmful alcohol consumption in the 12 months preceding ACS (30 day-interview) and six months after that.Results:The frequencies of alcohol abuse were 24.7% and 21.1% in the 12 months preceding ACS and six months after that, respectively. The most significant cardiovascular risk factors associated with high-risk for alcohol abuse 30 days after the acute event were: male sex (88.9%), current smoking (52.8%) and hypertension (58.3%). Six months after the acute event, the most significant results were replicated in our logistic regression, for the association between alcohol abuse among younger individuals [35-44 year-old multivariate OR: 38.30 (95% CI: 1.44-1012.56) and 45-54 year-old multivariate OR: 10.10 (95% CI: 1.06-96.46)] and for smokers [current smokers multivariate OR: 51.09 (95% CI: 3.49-748.01) and past smokers multivariate OR: 40.29 (95% CI: 2.37-685.93)].Conclusion:Individuals younger than 54 years and smokers showed a significant relation with harmful alcohol consumption, regardless of the ACS subtype.

Statistical pattern recognition for audio-forensics : empirical investigations on the application scenarios audio steganalysis and microphone forensics

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2013

Context modelling for IT security in selected application scenarios

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2015

Economic impacts of alternative water policy scenarios in the Spanish production system: an input-output analysis

The objective of this paper is to analyse the economic impacts of alternative water policies implemented in the Spanish production system. The methodology uses two versions of the input-output price model: a competitive formulation and a mark-up formulation. The input-output framework evaluates the impact of water policy measures on production prices, consumption prices, intermediate water demand and private welfare. Our results show that a tax on the water used by sectors considerably reduces the intermediate water demand, and increases the production and consumption prices. On the other hand, according to Jevons' paradox, an improvement in technical efficiency, which leads to a reduction in the water requirements of all sectors and an increase in water production, increases the amount of water consumed. The combination of a tax on water and improved technical efficiency takes the pressure off prices and significantly reduces intermediate water demand. JEL Classification: C67 ; D57 ; Q25. Keywords: Production prices; Consumption prices; Water uses; Water policy; Water taxation.

Portal vein embolization before right hepatectomy: prospective clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of liver hypertrophy of the future liver remnant volume (FLR) induced by preoperative portal vein embolization (PVE) on the immediate postoperative complications after a standardized major liver resection. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: PVE is usually indicated when FLR is estimated to be too small for major liver resection. However, few data exist regarding the exact quantification of sufficient minimal functional hepatic volume required to avoid postoperative complications in both patients with or without chronic liver disease. METHODS: All consecutive patients in whom an elective right hepatectomy was feasible and who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria between 1998 and 2000 were assigned to have alternatively either immediate surgery or surgery after PVE. Among 55 patients (25 liver metastases, 2 cholangiocarcinoma, and 28 hepatocellular carcinoma), 28 underwent right hepatectomy after PVE and 27 underwent immediate surgery. Twenty-eight patients had chronic liver disease. FLR and estimated rate of functional future liver remnant (%FFLR) volumes were assessed by computed tomography. RESULTS: The mean increase of FLR and %FFLR 4 to 8 weeks after PVE were respectively 44 +/- 19% and 16 +/- 7% for patients with normal liver and 35 +/- 28% and 9 +/- 3% for those with chronic liver disease. All patients with normal liver and 86% with chronic liver disease experienced hypertrophy after PVE. The postoperative course of patients with normal liver who underwent PVE before right hepatectomy was similar to those with immediate surgery. In contrast, PVE in patients with chronic liver disease significantly decreased the incidence of postoperative complications as well as the intensive care unit stay and total hospital stay after right hepatectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Before elective right hepatectomy, the hypertrophy of FLR induced by PVE had no beneficial effect on the postoperative course in patients with normal liver. In contrast, in patients with chronic liver disease, the hypertrophy of the FLR induced by PVE decreased significantly the rate of postoperative complications.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Cooperative strategies for imperfect CSI scenarios based on distributed Alamouti

Les comunicacions cooperatives estan guanyant un gran interès en les comunicacions modernes degut a que permeten millorar la transmissió dʼinformació entre un emissor i un receptor utilitzant una sèrie de terminals situats entre ells. Aquest projecte és un estudi complet del sistemes cooperatius, analitzant el seu rendiment i comparant lʼús dʼun sol dʼaquests terminals amb lʼús del codi Alamouti, que utilitza dos terminals. Primer hi ha una introducció als sistemes cooperatius i a la teoria de la informació. Després hem estudiat un sistema cooperatiu amb la teoria de la informació com a base, en termes de probabilitat de fallada del sistema, i posteriorment lʼhem adaptat a un sistema cooperatiu real utilitzant una modulació QPSK, estudiant la seva probabilitat dʼerror de paquet. Finalment es proposen diversos protocols que permeten millorar el rendiment del sistema cooperatiu estudiat.

Prognostic value of sentinel node biopsy in 327 prospective melanoma patients from a single institution

AIM: To confirm the accuracy of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) procedure and its morbidity, and to investigate predictive factors for SN status and prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between October 1997 and December 2004, 327 consecutive patients in one centre with clinically node-negative primary skin melanoma underwent an SNB by the triple technique, i.e. lymphoscintigraphy, blue-dye and gamma-probe. Multivariate logistic regression analyses as well as the Kaplan-Meier were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of the patients had at least one metastatic SN, which was significantly associated with Breslow thickness (p<0.001). The success rate of SNB was 99.1% and its morbidity was 7.6%. With a median follow-up of 33 months, the 5-year DFS/DSS were 43%/49% for patients with positive SN and 83.5%/87.4% for patients with negative SN, respectively. The false-negative rate of SNB was 8.6% and sensitivity 91.4%. On multivariate analysis, DFS was significantly worsened by Breslow thickness (RR=5.6, p<0.001), positive SN (RR=5.0, p<0.001) and male sex (RR=2.9, p=0.001). The presence of a metastatic SN (RR=8.4, p<0.001), male sex (RR=6.1, p<0.001), Breslow thickness (RR=3.2, p=0.013) and ulceration (RR=2.6, p=0.015) were significantly associated with a poorer DSS. CONCLUSION: SNB is a reliable procedure with high sensitivity (91.4%) and low morbidity. Breslow thickness was the only statistically significant parameter predictive of SN status. DFS was worsened in decreasing order by Breslow thickness, metastatic SN and male gender. Similarly DSS was significantly worsened by a metastatic SN, male gender, Breslow thickness and ulceration. These data reinforce the SN status as a powerful staging procedure

Role of surgery in the management of brain arteriovenous malformations: prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Management of brain arteriovenous malformation (bAVM) is controversial. We have analyzed the largest surgical bAVM cohort for outcome. METHODS: Both operated and nonoperated cases were included for analysis. A total of 779 patients with bAVMs were consecutively enrolled between 1989 and 2014. Initial management recommendations were recorded before commencement of treatment. Surgical outcome was prospectively recorded and outcomes assigned at the last follow-up visit using modified Rankin Scale. First, a sensitivity analyses was performed to select a subset of the entire cohort for which the results of surgery could be generalized. Second, from this subset, variables were analyzed for risk of deficit or near miss (intraoperative hemorrhage requiring blood transfusion of ≥2.5 L, hemorrhage in resection bed requiring reoperation, and hemorrhage associated with either digital subtraction angiography or embolization). RESULTS: A total of 7.7% of patients with Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVM had an adverse outcome from surgery leading to a modified Rankin Scale >1. Sensitivity analyses that demonstrated outcome results were not subject to selection bias for Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVMs. Risk factors for adverse outcomes from surgery for these bAVMs include size, presence of deep venous drainage, and eloquent location. Preoperative embolization did not affect the risk of perioperative hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the ruptured and unruptured low and middle-grade bAVMs (Spetzler-Ponce A and B) can be surgically treated with a low risk of permanent morbidity and a high likelihood of preventing future hemorrhage. Our results do not apply to Spetzler-Ponce C bAVMs.

Taux sanguins et sériques d'ions métalliques chez les patients porteurs de PHTs à col modulaire - une étude de cohorte prospective comparative

Les évidences s'accumulent concernant des problèmes de corrosion touchant les prothèses à col modulaires. Plusieurs études récentes révèlent des taux d'ions métalliques élevés. Le but de cette étude était de comparer les taux d'ions métalliques (Co, Cr, Mo, Ti), dans le sérum, chez des porteurs de prothèses à col modulaire, à tige monobloc, ainsi que sans implant. Méthodes Nous avons recruté 60 patients, dont 50 porteurs d'une PTH, unilatérale, sans aucun autre implant, non-cimentée, avec tête en céramique, à minimum 1 année postopératoire. Quarante avaient une tige SPS (Symbios) (Ti6Al4 V) modulaire (col en CoCr) et 10 une SPS monobloc (non-modulaire). Les cupules étaient toutes en alliage de Ti (Ti6Al4 V) avec insert céramique ou PE. Nous avons constitué un groupe témoin sans aucun implant. Dans le groupe o modulaires O, le col a été choisi en préopératoire sur la base d'une planification 3D et assemblé à sec avant implantation. Nous avons prélevé un échantillon sérique, un autre sanguin, qui ont été analysés par spectrométrie de masse, permettant une détermination atomique quantitative. Le résultat clinique a été estimé à l'aide du o Oxford Hip Score O. Résultats Nous avons trouvé un Co sérique moyen à 1,54 Ig L dans le groupe O modulaires O et à 0,32 Ig L dans le groupe o monobloc O avec un p < 0,001. Pour le Cr, on a 1,12 Ig L (modulaires) vs 0,60 Ig L (monoblocs) avec un p < 0,001, pour le Ti 31 Ig L (modulaires) vs 22 Ig L (monoblocs) avec p < 0,001 et pour le Mo, 0,96 Ig L (modulaires) vs 0,74 (monoblocs) avec p = 0,254. Deux patients avaient des valeurs de Co supérieures à 7 Ig L et 11 étaient au-dessus de 1 Ig L, valeur considérée comme limite. Les valeurs dans le sang complet étaient similaires. Nous n'avons pas trouvé de différence significative selon les types de col modulaires (longs vs courts et rétro vs normaux). Curieusement, le taux de Cr était significativement plus élevé chez les patients sans aucun implant que chez les porteurs de SPS monobloc, par contre les différences n'étaient pas significatives pour les autres éléments. Conclusion Les taux sériques et sanguins de ions Co, Cr et Ti étaient significativement plus élevés dans le groupe des patients avec col modulaire, avec 2 valeurs 40 extrêmement hautes et plus de la moitié (11 40) anormalement hautes. Bien que ces valeurs soient inférieures à celles d'autres études, nous avons arrêter d'utiliser de tiges à cols modulaires, et avons initié un suivi annuel des patients porteurs, similaire à celui instauré pour les grosses têtes métal-métal.

Pregnancy Outcome Following Maternal Exposure To Statins: A Multicenter Prospective Study

Introduction: Statin use for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia in women of childbearing age is increasingly common. However, published data on pregnancy outcome after exposure to statins are scarce and conflicting. This contribution addresses the safety of exposure to statins during pregnancy.Method: In a multi-center (n = 11) observational, prospective study we compared the outcomes of 249 women exposed during the 1st trimester of pregnancy to simvastatin (n = 124), atorvastatin (n = 67), pravastatin (n = 32), rosuvastatin (n = 18), fluvastatin (n = 7) or cerivastatin (n = 1) with a control group exposed to agents known to be non-teratogenic (n = 249). The data were collected by members of the European Network of Teratology Information Services (ENTIS) during individual risk counseling between 1990 and 2009. Standardized procedures for data collection were used in each center.Results: The difference in the rate of major birth defects between the statin-exposed group and the control group was not statistically significant (4.0% vs. 2.7% OR 1.5; 95% CI 0.5-4.5, P = 0.44). The crude rate of spontaneous abortions (12.8% vs. 7.1%, OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.6, P = 0.04) was higher in the exposed group. However, after adjustment to maternal age and gestational age at initial contact, the difference became statistically insignificant. The rate of elective pregnancy-termination (8.8% vs. 4.4%, P = 0.05) was higher and the rate of deliveries resulting in live births was significantly lower in the statin exposed group (77.9% vs. 88.4%, P = 0.002). Prematurity was more frequent in exposed pregnancies (16.1% vs. 8.5%; OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-3.8, P = 0.02). Nonetheless, gestational age at birth (median 39 weeks, IQR 37-40 vs. 39 weeks, IQR 38-40, P = 0.27) and birth weight (median 3280 g, IQR 2835-3590 vs. 3250 g, IQR 2880-3600, P = 0.95) did not differ between exposed and non-exposed pregnancies.Conclusion: This study did not detect a clear teratogenic effect of statins. Its statistical power however is not sufficient to reverse the recommendation of treatment discontinuation during pregnancy. At most, the results are reassuring in case of inadvertent exposure.