Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Rates of attendance at a smoking cessation clinic within a cardiac rehabilitation service

Objectives: Smoking cessation has been shown to be an important intervention for preventing cardiovascular events and improving the health of patients with heart disease. However, unaided quit attempts in these patients often leads to high rates of failure and a return to smoking. Outpatient smoking cessation clinics using face-to-face counseling, ongoing behavioral support, advice on smoking pharmacotherapy and objective monitoring, have been found to be one of the most effective interventions for improving quit smoking rates. An outpatient smoking cessation clinic was trialed within a cardiac rehabilitation service in order to explore its effects on smoking rates for patients with or at risk of heart disease. Attendance rates to the clinic were also monitored. Methods: A descriptive exploratory design was used for this newly developed clinic. Patients who currently smoked tobacco and who had a history of either coronary artery disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation or those seen under a chest pain assessment service were invited to an outpatient ‘Cardiac Patients Smokers Clinic’. Initially patients were offered up to 10 clinic visits over a 3 month period. Follow-up clinic visits were conducted at 3, 6 and 12 months. A portable carbon monoxide meter was used to objectively measure levels of smoking and validate smoking abstinence. Primary outcomes included rates of attendance. Results: Preliminary findings showed 24 per cent of participants (N = 6) completed all their clinic visits and remained smoke free as measured by their ongoing expired carbon monoxide readings. Clinic attendance rates appeared lowest for those with significant mental health issues such as schizophrenia or substance abuse. However, rates of attendance were improved by having an administration officer make reminder telephone calls prior to clinic visits. Conclusions: Early findings indicate the feasibility of providing a specialist smoking cessation clinic within a cardiac rehabilitation service. Further, that reminder telephone calls prior to appointments improved attendance rates in patients with heart disease to this type of clinic. However, future investigations are warranted.

Spatiotemporal patterns of Japanese Encephalitis in China, 2002–2010

OBJECTIVE The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002-2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders. METHODS Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002-2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003-2005; 2006; and 2007-2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters. RESULTS JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years. CONCLUSION JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

A threshold concepts focus to curriculum design: supporting student learning through application of variation theory

This project develops and evaluates a model of curriculum design that aims to assist student learning of foundational disciplinary ‘Threshold Concepts’. The project uses phenomenographic action research, cross-institutional peer collaboration and the Variation Theory of Learning to develop and trial the model. Two contrasting disciplines (Physics and Law) and four institutions (two research-intensive and two universities of technology) were involved in the project, to ensure broad applicability of the model across different disciplines and contexts. The Threshold Concepts that were selected for curriculum design attention were measurement uncertainty in Physics and legal reasoning in Law. Threshold Concepts are key disciplinary concepts that are inherently troublesome, transformative and integrative in nature. Once understood, such concepts transform students’ views of the discipline because they enable students to coherently integrate what were previously seen as unrelated aspects of the subject, providing new ways of thinking about it (Meyer & Land 2003, 2005, 2006; Land et al. 2008). However, the integrative and transformative nature of such threshold concepts make them inherently difficult for students to learn, with resulting misunderstandings of concepts being prevalent...

The ‘feminine revolution in mining’ : a critique

This paper presents an analysis of media reports of Australian women in mine management. It argues that a dominant storyline in the texts is one of gender change; in fact, a ‘feminine revolution’ is said to have occurred in the mining industry and corporate Australia more generally. Despite this celebratory and transformative discourse the female mine managers interviewed in the media texts seek to distance themselves from women/female identity/femininity and take up a script of gender neutrality. It is demonstrated, however, that this script is saturated with the assumptions and definitions of managerial masculinity.

“Conversations Before the End of Time” : Refuturing Applications of a New Media Praxis

This chapter examines how the methods, outcomes and transformative potentials of my new media arts praxis have been understood by a range of critical commentators from disciplinary perspectives outside of my own ‘home territory’ of media arts. By drawing upon perspectives from Human Computer Interface Design, Engineering, Sustainability Design, Tertiary Education, Communication Design and Public Librarianship I demonstrate how ideas from my arts disciplines have had tangible ‘external’ significance and application.

Institutionalization

During the 18th and 19th centuries, prostitution came to be understood as a potentially disruptive element in the management of society. New forms of social control developed that sought to transform the souls of prostitutes to better control their bodies. Institutions for managing prostitutes, such as Magdalen Homes and lock hospitals, were introduced or increased in number throughout the British Empire, North America, and Western Europe. Often these institutions had as their stated objective the physical purification and moral reform of prostitutes, appearing to make a dramatic break with earlier methods of social control that had relied on practices of physical punishment and spatial segregation. Emergent institutions for the social control of prostitutes used a regimen of religious training, hard labor, and medical expertise. The objective of the Magdalen Home was not to punish sin but to absolve it, while the function of the lock hospital was not simply to confine the ill, but to confine the ill to "cure" them. The role of these institutions was not only symbolic, mirroring in some way the operation of earlier forms of social control, but was also practical and transformative. The mass institutionalization of prostitutes that occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries produced and emphasized sexual, class, and gender boundaries, grounded in the broad distinction between "pure" and "impure" women. Because of its association with sin, prostitution before the 18th century had been constructed as a religious problem relating to salvation and penitence. Throughout Western Europe during the Middle Ages, prostitutes, like the medieval leper and the Jew, were subject to restrictions designed to distinguish and isolate them from other members of their communities. The repression of prostitution during the Middle Ages was neither systematic nor highly organized, although it reinforced the image of the prostitute as sinful "other".

Evaluative decision-making for high-quality professional development: Cultivating an evaluative stance

Unprecedented policy attention to early childhood education internationally has highlighted the crucial need for a skilled early years workforce. Consequently, professional development of early years educators has become a global policy imperative. At the same time, many maintain that professional development research has reached an impasse. In this paper, we offer a new approach to addressing this impasse. In contrast to calls for a redesign of comparative studies of professional development programs, or for the refinement of researcher-constructed professional development evaluation frameworks, we argue the need to cultivate what we refer to as an ‘evaluative stance’ amongst all involved in making decisions about professional development in the early years – from senior bureaucrats with responsibilities for funding professional development programs to individual educators with choices about which professional development opportunities to take up. Drawing on three bodies of literature -- evaluation capacity building, personal epistemology, and co-production -- that, for the most part, have been overlooked with respect to early years professional learning this paper proposes a conceptual framework to explain why cultivating an evaluative stance in professional development decision-making has rich possibilities for systemic, sustainable, and transformative change in early years education.

Monikulttuurisen akateemisen opetuksen hallinta

Starting point for the study was the notion made in previous studies that the Finnish educational practices are not sufficient in multicultural teaching. The main objective of the research was to find out good multicultural teaching practices developed by experienced teachers. The subject of the research was teachers narratives about the problems, solutions and the development of multicultural academic teaching. Previous research has shown that disturbances in multicultural activity can be caused among other things by cultural and linguistic differences, racism and prejudice and stress related to immigration. The management of multicultural teaching can be examined from the individual point of view as intercultural competence and from the collective point of view as management of the disturbances of multicultural teaching. The development of the management has been illustrated with the models of adaptation and transformative/expansive learning. The methodological approach of the research was narrative. I interviewed six teachers with narrative methods. Half of the interviews were pair interviews. As an analytical framework I used the basic story model by Labov (1972). I analysed critical incidents, resolutions and evaluations of the stories. According to the results the problems of the multicultural academic teaching are diverse. Most often mentioned problems were cultural differences and racism. Problems were managed by developing practices that support the multicultural activity broadly and by reacting to sudden problems intuitively or reflectively. In the management of the academic multicultural teaching the experienced teachers emphasised flexibility, group building and trust, intensified guidance, acting against racism and prejudice and characteristics of the teacher, like patience and sense of humour. The management of multicultural teaching has developed through the accumulation of intercultural experiences, reflection of experiences, cooperative problem solving, following the research of the field and experimenting different approaches. In accordance with the previous studies, this research showed that continuous learning is needed in the management of multicultural teaching. The results can be used in developing academic multicultural teaching and education.

Discovering urban citizenship in the surveillance society

Cities and urban spaces around the world are changing rapidly from their origins in the industrialising world to a post-industrial, hard wired landscape. A further embellishment is the advent of mobile media technologies supported by both existing and new communications and computing technology which claim to put the urban dweller at the heart of a new, informed and ‘liberated’ seat of participatory urban governance. This networked, sensor enabled society permits flows of information in a multitude of directions ostensibly empowering the citizenry through ‘smart’ installations such as ‘talking bus stops’ detailing services, delays, transport interconnections and even weather conditions along desired routes. However, while there is considerable potential for creative and transformative kinds of citizen participation, there is also the momentum for ‘function-creep’, whereby vast amounts of data are garnered in a broad application of urban surveillance. This kind of monitoring and capacity for surveillance connects with attempts by civic authorities to regulate, restrict, rebrand and reframe urban public spaces into governable and predictable arenas of consumption. This article considers questions around the possibilities for retaining and revitalising forms of urban citizenship, set in the context of Marshall’s original premise of civil, social and political citizenship(s) in the middle of the last century, following World War Two and the coming of the modern welfare state.

Priority list of endemic diseases for the red meat industries

This report provides a systematic review of the most economically damaging endemic diseases and conditions for the Australian red meat industry (cattle, sheep and goats). A number of diseases for cattle, sheep and goats have been identified and were prioritised according to their prevalence, distribution, risk factors and mitigation. The economic cost of each disease as a result of production losses, preventive costs and treatment costs is estimated at the herd and flock level, then extrapolated to a national basis using herd/flock demographics from the 2010-11 Agricultural Census by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Information shortfalls and recommendations for further research are also specified. A total of 17 cattle, 23 sheep and nine goat diseases were prioritised based on feedback received from producer, government and industry surveys, followed by discussions between the consultants and MLA. Assumptions of disease distribution, in-herd/flock prevalence, impacts on mortality/production and costs for prevention and treatment were obtained from the literature where available. Where these data were not available, the consultants used their own expertise to estimate the relevant measures for each disease. Levels of confidence in the assumptions for each disease were estimated, and gaps in knowledge identified. The assumptions were analysed using a specialised Excel model that estimated the per animal, herd/flock and national costs of each important disease. The report was peer reviewed and workshopped by the consultants and experts selected by MLA before being finalised. Consequently, this report is an important resource that will guide and prioritise future research, development and extension activities by a variety of stakeholders in the red meat industry. This report completes Phase I and Phase II of an overall four-Phase project initiative by MLA, with identified data gaps in this report potentially being addressed within the later phases. Modelling the economic costs using a consistent approach for each disease ensures that the derived estimates are transparent and can be refined if improved data on prevalence becomes available. This means that the report will be an enduring resource for developing policies and strategies for the management of endemic diseases within the Australian red meat industry.

Work Stress in the Nursing Profession : An Evaluation of Organizational Causal Attribution

The goal of this study was to examine the role of organizational causal attribution in understanding the relation of work stressors (work-role overload, excessive role responsibility, and unpleasant physical environment) and personal resources (social support and cognitive coping) to such organizational-attitudinal outcomes as work engagement, turnover intention, and organizational identification. In some analyses, cognitive coping was also treated as an organizational outcome. Causal attribution was conceptualized in terms of four dimensions: internality-externality, attributing the cause of one’s successes and failures to oneself, as opposed to external factors, stability (thinking that the cause of one’s successes and failures is stable over time), globality (perceiving the cause to be operative on many areas of one’s life), and controllability (believing that one can control the causes of one’s successes and failures). Several hypotheses were derived from Karasek’s (1989) Job Demands–Control (JD-C) model and from the Job Demands–Resources (JD-R) model (Demerouti, Bakker, Nachreiner & Schaufeli, 2001). Based on the JD-C model, a number of moderation effects were predicted, stating that the strength of the association of work stressors with the outcome variables (e.g. turnover intentions) varies as a function of the causal attribution; for example, unpleasant work environment is more strongly associated with turnover intention among those with an external locus of causality than among those with an internal locuse of causality. From the JD-R model, a number of hypotheses on the mediation model were derived. They were based on two processes posited by the model: an energy-draining process in which work stressors along with a mediating effect of causal attribution for failures deplete the nurses’ energy, leading to turnover intention, and a motivational process in which personal resources along with a mediating effect of causal attribution for successes foster the nurses’ engagement in their work, leading to higher organizational identification and to decreased intention to leave the nursing job. For instance, it was expected that the relationship between work stressors and turnover intention could be explained (mediated) by a tendency to attribute one’s work failures to stable causes. The data were collected from among Finnish hospital nurses using e-questionnaires. Overall 934 nurses responded the questionnaires. Work stressors and personal resources were measured by five scales derived from the Occupational Stress Inventory-Revised (Osipow, 1998). Causal attribution was measured using the Occupational Attributional Style Questionnaire (Furnham, 2004). Work engagement was assessed through the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (Schaufeli & al., 2002), turnover intention by the Van Veldhoven & Meijman (1994) scale, and organizational identification by the Mael & Ashforth (1992) measure. The results provided support for the function of causal attribution in the overall work stress process. Findings related to the moderation model can be divided into three main findings. First, external locus of causality along with job level moderated the relationship between work overload and cognitive coping. Hence, this interaction was evidenced only among nurses in non-supervisory positions. Second, external locus of causality and job level together moderated the relationship between physical environment and turnover intention. An opposite pattern of interaction was found for this interaction: among nurses, externality exacerbated the effect of perceived unpleasantness of the physical environment on turnover intention, whereas among supervisors internality produced the same effect. Third, job level also disclosed a moderation effect for controllability attribution over the relationship between physical environment and cognitive coping. Findings related to the mediation model for the energetic process indicated that the partial model in which work stressors have also a direct effect on turnover intention fitted the data better. In the mediation model for the motivational process, an intermediate mediation effect in which the effects of personal resources on turnover intention went through two mediators (e.g., causal dimensions and organizational identification) fitted the data better. All dimensions of causal attribution appeared to follow a somewhat unique pattern of mediation effect not only for energetic but also for motivational processes. Overall findings on mediation models partly supported the two simultaneous underlying processes proposed by the JD-R model. While in the energetic process the dimension of externality mediated the relationship between stressors and turnover partially, all the dimensions of causal attribution appeared to entail significant mediator effects in the motivational process. The general findings supported the moderation effect and the mediation effect of causal attribution in the work stress process. The study contributes to several research traditions, including the interaction approach, the JD-C, and the JD-R models. However, many potential functions of organizational causal attribution are yet to be evaluated by relevant academic and organizational research. Keywords: organizational causal attribution, optimistic / pessimistic attributional style, work stressors, organisational stress process, stressors in nursing profession, hospital nursing, JD-R model, personal resources, turnover intention, work engagement, organizational identification.

Typhoid fever & vaccine development: a partially answered question

Typhoid fever is a systemic disease caused by the human specific Gram-negative pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S Typhi). The extra-intestinal infections caused by Salmonella are very fatal. The incidence of typhoid fever remains very high in impoverished areas and the emergence of multidrug resistance has made the situation worse. To combat and to reduce the morbidity and mortality caused by typhoid fever, many preventive measures and strategies have been employed, the most important being vaccination. In recent years, many Salmonella vaccines have been developed including live attenuated as well as DNA vaccines and their clinical trials have shown encouraging results. But with the increasing antibiotic resistance, the development of potent vaccine candidate for typhoid fever is a need of the hour. This review discusses the latest trends in the typhoid vaccine development and the clinical trials which are underway.

Hermano de hombre soy : Entrevista al P. Juan Carlos Scannone S.I. sobre la mediación de la filosofía en el diálogo entre literatura y teología

Tres miembros del Seminario Interdisciplinario Permanente de Literatura, Estética y Teología entrevistaron a Juan Carlos Scannone en búsqueda de una conversación que abra nuevas perspectivas. Los temas principales fueron: el inicio de Scannone en el diálogo entre literatura y teología, la formación humanística de los jesuitas, los precursores en la Argentina, la mediación simbólica, los aportes de Paul Ricoeur, el método interdisciplinario y la mediación filosófica, la novela latinoamericana.

Aplicação da técnica de difração de raios X usando luz síncroton para caracterização de esmalte dentário humano flluorótico e de controle

Com a introdução do flúor como o principal agente anticariogênico e, talvez, um aumento do flúor na nossa cadeia alimentar, a fluorose dentária tornou-se um problema mundial. Os mecanismos que conduzem à formação do esmalte fluorótico são desconhecidos, mas devem envolver modificações nas reações físico-químicas básicas de desmineralização e remineralização do esmalte dentário. O aumento daquantidade de flúor no cristal apatita resulta no aumento dos parâmetros de rede. O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar o esmalte dentário humano saudável e fluorótico usando difração de raios X com luz síncrotron. Todos os perfis de espalhamento foram medidos na linha de difração de raios X (XRD1) do Laboratório Nacional de Luz Síncrotron, Campinas SP. Os experimentos foram realizados usando amostras em pó e em lâminas polidas. As amostras em pó foram analisadas a fim de obter a caracterização do esmalte dentário saudável. As lâminas foram analisadas em áreas do esmalte específicas identificadas como fluoróticas. Todos os perfis foram comparados com amostras de esmalte de controle e também com a literatura. A evidente similaridade entre os perfis de difração mostraram a analogia entre as estruturas do esmalte dentário e a hidroxiapatita padrão. Fica evidente que os perfis de difração do esmalte dentário das amostras em lâmina são diferentes daqueles obtidos para o esmalte em pó. As diferenças encontradas incluem variação na cristalinidade e orientação preferencial. Os valores encontrados para as distâncias interplanares para o esmalte de controle e fluorótico das amostras em lâmina não apresentaram diferenças estatisticamente significativas. Isto pode ser explicado pelo fato que a hidroxiapatita e a fluoropatita formam cristais com a mesma estrutura hexagonal, mesmo grupo de simetria e têm parâmetros de rede muito próximos, os quais a habilidade do sistema não foi suficiente para resolver. Finalmente, este trabalho mostra que a difração de raios X usando radiação síncrotron é uma técnica poderosa para o estudo da cristalografia e microestrutura do esmalte dentário e, ainda, pode ser igualmente aplicada no estudo de outros tecidos biológicos duros e de biomateriais sintéticos.