Multiple-scale hydrological and geophysical data integration through non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

Th1 and Th17 hypercytokinemia as early host response signature in severe pandemic influenza.

INTRODUCTION Human host immune response following infection with the new variant of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza virus (nvH1N1) is poorly understood. We utilize here systemic cytokine and antibody levels in evaluating differences in early immune response in both mild and severe patients infected with nvH1N1. METHODS We profiled 29 cytokines and chemokines and evaluated the haemagglutination inhibition activity as quantitative and qualitative measurements of host immune responses in serum obtained during the first five days after symptoms onset, in two cohorts of nvH1N1 infected patients. Severe patients required hospitalization (n = 20), due to respiratory insufficiency (10 of them were admitted to the intensive care unit), while mild patients had exclusively flu-like symptoms (n = 15). A group of healthy donors was included as control (n = 15). Differences in levels of mediators between groups were assessed by using the non parametric U-Mann Whitney test. Association between variables was determined by calculating the Spearman correlation coefficient. Viral load was performed in serum by using real-time PCR targeting the neuraminidase gene. RESULTS Increased levels of innate-immunity mediators (IP-10, MCP-1, MIP-1beta), and the absence of anti-nvH1N1 antibodies, characterized the early response to nvH1N1 infection in both hospitalized and mild patients. High systemic levels of type-II interferon (IFN-gamma) and also of a group of mediators involved in the development of T-helper 17 (IL-8, IL-9, IL-17, IL-6) and T-helper 1 (TNF-alpha, IL-15, IL-12p70) responses were exclusively found in hospitalized patients. IL-15, IL-12p70, IL-6 constituted a hallmark of critical illness in our study. A significant inverse association was found between IL-6, IL-8 and PaO2 in critical patients. CONCLUSIONS While infection with the nvH1N1 induces a typical innate response in both mild and severe patients, severe disease with respiratory involvement is characterized by early secretion of Th17 and Th1 cytokines usually associated with cell mediated immunity but also commonly linked to the pathogenesis of autoimmune/inflammatory diseases. The exact role of Th1 and Th17 mediators in the evolution of nvH1N1 mild and severe disease merits further investigation as to the detrimental or beneficial role these cytokines play in severe illness.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29%, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90% on Saturdays, 4.29% on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45%) than for women (0.64%) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62%, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84%, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

IRM cardiaque: imagerie de référence dans le diagnostic de la myocardite aiguë [Cardiac magnetic resonance in acute myocarditis: a new non-invasive diagnostic gold standard?].

Acute myocarditis was until recently one of the most difficult diagnoses in cardiology. The spectrum of signs and symptoms is very wide, the usual non-invasive tests lack specificity and the myocardial biopsy is only performed in a minority of cases to confirm the diagnosis. Due to its unique ability to directly image myocardial necrosis, fibrosis and oedema, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is now considered the primary tool for noninvasive assessment of patients with suspected myocarditis. CMR is also useful for monitoring disease activity under treatment. Myocarditis has been associated with the development of dilated cardiomyopathy; CMR could play a role in the follow-up of such cases to detect the progression toward a dilatative phenotype. Precise mapping of myocardial lesions with cardiac MRI is invaluable to guide myocardial biopsy and increase its diagnostic yield by improving sensitivity.

The overhang hangover

We revisit the debt overhang question. We first use non-parametric techniques to isolate a panel of countries on the downward sloping section of a debt Laffer curve. In particular, overhang countries are ones where a threshold level of debt is reached in sample, beyond which (initial) debt ends up lowering (subsequent)growth. On average, significantly negative coefficients appear when debt face value reaches 60 percent of GDP or 200 percent of exports, and when its present value reaches 40 percent of GDP or 140 percent of exports. Second, we depart from reduced form growth regressions and perform direct tests of the theory on the thus selected sample of overhang countries. In the spirit of event studies, we ask whether, as overhang level of debt is reached: (i)investment falls precipitously as it should when it becomes optimal to default, (ii) economic policy deteriorates observably, as it should when debt contracts become unable to elicit effort on the part of the debtor, and (iii) the terms of borrowing worsen noticeably, as they should when it becomes optimal for creditors to pre-empt default and exact punitive interest rates. We find a systematic response of investment, particularly when property rights are weakly enforced, some worsening of the policy environment, and a fall in interest rates. This easing of borrowing conditions happens because lending by the private sector virtually disappears in overhang situations, and multilateral agencies step in with concessional rates. Thus, while debt relief is likely to improve economic policy (and especially investment) in overhang countries, it is doubtful that it would ease their terms of borrowing, or the burden of debt.

Neurally adjusted ventilatory assist can improve arterial oxygenation

INTRODUCTION. Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist (NAVA) [1] is a new spontaneousassisted ventilatory mode which uses the diaphragmatic electrical activity (Eadi) to pilot the ventilator. Eadi is used to initiate the ventilator's pressurization and cycling off. Delivered inspiratory assistance is proportional to Eadi. NAVA can improve patient-ventilator synchrony [2] compared to pressure support (PS), but little is known about its effect on minute ventilation and oxygenation. OBJECTIVES. To compare the effects of NAVA and PS on minute ventilation and oxygenation and to analyze potential determinant factors for oxygenation. METHODS. Comparison between two 20-min periods under NAVA and PS. NAVA gain (proportionality factor between Eadi and delivered pressure) set as to obtain the same peak pressure as in PS. FIO2 and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were the same in NAVA and PS. Blood gas analyses were performed at the end of both recording periods. Statistical analysis: groups were compared with paired t tests or non parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. p\0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS. [Mean ± SD]: 22 patients (age 66 ± 12 year, 7 M/15F, BMI 23.4 ± 3.1 kg/m2), 8 patients with COPD. Initial settings: PS 13 ± 3 cmH2O, PEEP 7 ± 2 cmH2O, NAVA gain 2.2 ± 1.8. Minute ventilation and PaCO2 were the same with both modes (p = 0.296 and 0.848, respectively). Tidal volume was lower with NAVA (427 ± 102 vs. 477 ± 102 ml, p\0.001). In contrast respiratory rate was higher with NAVA (25.6 ± 9.5 vs. 22.3 ± 8.9 cycles/min). Arterial oxygenation was improved with NAVA (PaO2 85.1 ± 28.9 vs. 75.8 ± 11.9 mmHg, p = 0.017, PaO2/FIO2 210 ± 53 vs. 195 ± 58 mmHg, p = 0.019). Neural inspiratory time (Tin) was comparable between NAVA and PS (p = 0.566). Among potential determinant factors for oxygenation, mean airway pressure (Pmean) was lower with NAVA (10.6 ± 2.6 vs. 11.1 ± 2.4 cmH2O, p = 0.006), as was the pressure time product (PTP) (6.8 ± 3.0 vs. 9.2 ± 3.5 cmH2O 9 s, p = 0.004). There were less asynchrony events with NAVA (2.3 ± 2.0 vs. 4.4 ± 3.8, p = 0.009).Tidal volume variability was higher with NAVA (variation coefficient: 30 ± 19.5 vs. 13.5 ± 8.6, p\0.001). Inspiratory time in excess (Tiex) was lower with NAVA (56 ± 23 vs. 202 ± 200 ms, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION. Despite lower Pmean and PTP in NAVA, arterial oxygenation was improved compared to PS. As asynchronies may be associated with an increased work of breathing and a higher oxygen consumption, their decrease in number with NAVA could be an explanation for oxygenation improvement. Another explanation could be the increase in VT variability. Further studies should now be performed to confirm the potential of NAVA in improving arterial oxygenation and explore the underlying mechanisms.

Measuring the efficiency in Spanish municipal refuse collection services

The objective of this study is to analyse the technical or productive efficiency ofthe refuse collection services in 75 municipalities located in the Spanish regionof Catalonia. The analysis has been carried out using various techniques. Firstly we have calculated a deterministic parametric frontier, then a stochastic parametric frontier, and finally, various non-parametric approaches (DEA and FDH). Concerning the results, these naturally differ according to the technique used to approach the frontier. Nevertheless, they have an appearance of solidity, at least with regard to the ordinal concordance among the indices of efficiency obtained by the different approaches, as is demonstrated by the statistical tests used. Finally, we have attempted to search for any relation existing between efficiency and the method (public or private) of managing the services. No significant relation was found between the type of management and efficiencyindices

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Measuring the efficiency in Spanish municipal refuse collection services

The objective of this study is to analyse the technical or productive efficiency ofthe refuse collection services in 75 municipalities located in the Spanish regionof Catalonia. The analysis has been carried out using various techniques. Firstly we have calculated a deterministic parametric frontier, then a stochastic parametric frontier, and finally, various non-parametric approaches (DEA and FDH). Concerning the results, these naturally differ according to the technique used to approach the frontier. Nevertheless, they have an appearance of solidity, at least with regard to the ordinal concordance among the indices of efficiency obtained by the different approaches, as is demonstrated by the statistical tests used. Finally, we have attempted to search for any relation existing between efficiency and the method (public or private) of managing the services. No significant relation was found between the type of management and efficiencyindices

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

How single-trial electrical neuroimaging contributes to multisensory research.

This study details a method to statistically determine, on a millisecond scale and for individual subjects, those brain areas whose activity differs between experimental conditions, using single-trial scalp-recorded EEG data. To do this, we non-invasively estimated local field potentials (LFPs) using the ELECTRA distributed inverse solution and applied non-parametric statistical tests at each brain voxel and for each time point. This yields a spatio-temporal activation pattern of differential brain responses. The method is illustrated here in the analysis of auditory-somatosensory (AS) multisensory interactions in four subjects. Differential multisensory responses were temporally and spatially consistent across individuals, with onset at approximately 50 ms and superposition within areas of the posterior superior temporal cortex that have traditionally been considered auditory in their function. The close agreement of these results with previous investigations of AS multisensory interactions suggests that the present approach constitutes a reliable method for studying multisensory processing with the temporal and spatial resolution required to elucidate several existing questions in this field. In particular, the present analyses permit a more direct comparison between human and animal studies of multisensory interactions and can be extended to examine correlation between electrophysiological phenomena and behavior.

A multicentre, retrospective case-control study assessing the role of trabecular bone score (TBS) in menopausal Caucasian women with low areal bone mineral density (BMDa): Analysing the odds of vertebral fracture.

INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a new parameter that is determined from grey level analysis of DXA images. It relies on the mean thickness and volume fraction of trabecular bone microarchitecture. This was a preliminary case-control study to evaluate the potential diagnostic value of TBS, both alone and combined with bone mineral density (BMDa), in the assessment of vertebral fracture. METHODS: Out of a subject pool of 441 Caucasian, postmenopausal women between the ages of 50 and 80 years, we identified 42 women with osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures, and compared them with 126 age-matched women without any fractures (1 case: 3 controls). Primary outcomes were BMDa and TBS. Inter-group comparisons were undertaken using Student's t-tests and Wilcoxon signed ranks tests for parametric and non-parametric data, respectively. Odds ratios for vertebral fracture were calculated for each incremental one standard deviation decrease in BMDa and TBS, and areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) calculated and sensitivity analysis were conducted to compare BMDa alone, TBS alone, and the combination of BMDa and TBS. Subgroup analyses were performed specifically for women with osteopenia, and for women with T-score-defined osteoporosis. RESULTS: Across all subjects (n=42, 126) weight and body mass index were greater and BMDa and TBS both less in women with fractures. The odds of vertebral fracture were 3.20 (95% CI, 2.01-5.08) for each incremental decrease in TBS, 1.95 (1.34-2.84) for BMDa, and 3.62 (2.32-5.65) for BMDa + TBS combined. The AUC was greater for TBS than for BMDa (0.746 vs. 0.662, p=0.011). At iso-specificity (61.9%) or iso-sensitivity (61.9%) for both BMDa and TBS, TBS + BMDa sensitivity or specificity was 19.1% or 16.7% greater than for either BMDa or TBS alone. Among subjects with osteoporosis (n=11, 40) both BMDa (p=0.0008) and TBS (p=0.0001) were lower in subjects with fractures, and both OR and AUC (p=0.013) for BMDa + TBS were greater than for BMDa alone (OR=4.04 [2.35-6.92] vs. 2.43 [1.49-3.95]; AUC=0.835 [0.755-0.897] vs. 0.718 [0.627-0.797], p=0.013). Among subjects with osteopenia, TBS was lower in women with fractures (p=0.0296), but BMDa was not (p=0.75). Similarly, the OR for TBS was statistically greater than 1.00 (2.82, 1.27-6.26), but not for BMDa (1.12, 0.56-2.22), as was the AUC (p=0.035), but there was no statistical difference in specificity (p=0.357) or sensitivity (p=0.678). CONCLUSIONS: The trabecular bone score warrants further study as to whether it has any clinical application in osteoporosis detection and the evaluation of fracture risk.

Parametric Approach to Blind Deconvolution of Nonlinear Channels

A parametric procedure for the blind inversion of nonlinear channels is proposed, based on a recent method of blind source separation in nonlinear mixtures. Experiments show that the proposed algorithms perform efficiently, even in the presence of hard distortion. The method, based on the minimization of the output mutual information, needs the knowledge of log-derivative of input distribution (the so-called score function). Each algorithm consists of three adaptive blocks: one devoted to adaptive estimation of the score function, and two other blocks estimating the inverses of the linear and nonlinear parts of the channel, (quasi-)optimally adapted using the estimated score functions. This paper is mainly concerned by the nonlinear part, for which we propose two parametric models, the first based on a polynomial model and the second on a neural network, while [14, 15] proposed non-parametric approaches.

Impact of videogame playing on glucose metabolism in children with type 1 diabetes.

Phan-Hug F, Thurneysen E, Theintz G, Ruffieux C, Grouzmann E. Impact of videogame playing on glucose metabolism in children with type 1 diabetes. Time spent playing videogames (VG) occupies a continually increasing part of children's leisure time. They can generate an important state of excitation, representing a form of mental and physical stress. This pilot study aimed to assess whether VG influences glycemic balance in children with type 1 diabetes. Twelve children with type 1 diabetes were subjected to two distinct tests at a few weeks interval: (i) a 60-min VG session followed by a 60-min rest period and (ii) a 60-min reading session followed by a 60-min rest period. Heart rate, blood pressure, glycemia, epinephrine (E), norepinephrine (NE), cortisol (F), and growth hormone (GH) were measured at 30 min intervals from -60 to +120 min. Non-parametric Wilcoxon tests for paired data were performed on Δ-values computed from baseline (0 min). Rise in heart rate (p = 0.05) and NE increase (p = 0.03) were shown to be significantly higher during the VG session when compared to the reading session and a significant difference of Δ-glycemic values was measured between the respective rest periods. This pilot study suggests that VG playing could induce a state of excitation sufficient to activate the sympathetic system and alter the course of glycemia. Dietary and insulin dose recommendations may be needed to better control glycemic excursion in children playing VG.

Testing Weak-Form Efficiency of the Chinese Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta ja random walk -hypoteesin voimassaoloa. Tavoitteena on myös selvittää esiintyykö viikonpäiväanomalia Kiinan osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimusaineistona käytetään Shanghain osakepörssin A-sarjan,B-sarjan ja yhdistelmä-sarjan ja Shenzhenin yhdistelmä-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 21.2.1992-30.12.2005 sekä Shenzhenin osakepörssin A-sarjan ja B-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 5.10.1992-30.12.2005. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään neljä tilastollista menetelmää, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotestiä, epäparametrista runs-testiä, varianssisuhdetestiä sekä Augmented Dickey-Fullerin yksikköjuuritestiä. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Testejä tehdään sekä koko aineistolla että kolmella erillisellä ajanjaksolla. Tämän tutkielman empiiriset tulokset tukevat aikaisempia tutkimuksia Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehottomuudesta. Lukuun ottamatta yksikköjuuritestien saatuja tuloksia, autokorrelaatio-, runs- ja varianssisuhdetestien perusteella random walk-hypoteesi hylättiin molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden kohdalla. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että molemmilla osakepörssillä B-sarjan indeksien käyttäytyminenon ollut huomattavasti enemmän random walk -hypoteesin vastainen kuin A-sarjan indeksit. Paitsi B-sarjan markkinat, molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuus näytti myös paranevan vuoden 2001 markkinabuumin jälkeen. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat myös viikonpäiväanomalian esiintyvän Shanghain osakepörssillä, muttei kuitenkaan Shenzhenin osakepörssillä koko tarkasteluajanjaksolla.