Submission to the Productivity Commission issues paper business set-Up, transfer and closure

The Commission has been asked to identify appropriate options for reducing entry and exit barriers including advice on the potential impacts of the personal/corporate insolvency regimes on business exits...

Morphometric analysis of the thoracic intervertebral foramen osseous anatomy in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis using low dose computerized tomography

Introduction. The dimensions of the thoracic intervertebral foramen in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have not previously been quantified. During posterior approach scoliosis correction surgery pedicle screws may occasionally breach into the foramen. Better understanding of the dimensions of the foramen may be useful in surgical planning. This study describes a reproducible method for measurement of the thoracic foramen in AIS using computerized tomography (CT). Methods. In 23 pre-operative female patients with Lenke 1 type AIS with right side convexity major curves confined to the thoracic spine the foraminal height (FH), foraminal width (FW), pedicle to superior articular process distance (P-SAP) and cross sectional foraminal area (FA) were measured using multiplanar reconstructed CT. Measurements were made at entrance, midpoint and exit of the thoracic foramina from T1/T2 to T11/T12. Results were correlated with potential dependent variables of major curve Cobb Angle measured on X-ray and CT, Age, Weight, Lenke classification subtype, Risser Grade and number of spinal levels in the major curve. Results. The FH, FW, P-SAP and FA dimensions and ratios are all significantly larger on the convexity of the major curve and maximal at or close to the apex. Mean thoracic foraminal dimensions change in a predictable manner relative to position on the major thoracic curve. There was no significant correlation with the measured foraminal dimensions or ratios and the potential dependent variables. The average ratio of convexity to concavity dimensions at the apex foramina for entrance, midpoint and exit respectively are FH (1.50, 1.38, 1.25), FW (1.28, 1.30, 0.98), FA (2.06, 1.84, 1.32), P-SAP (1.61, 1.47, 1.30). Conclusion. Foraminal dimensions of the thoracic spine are significantly affected by AIS. Foraminal dimensions have a predictable convexity to concavity ratio relative to the proximity to the major curve apex. Surgeons should be aware of these anatomical differences during scoliosis correction surgery.

Using low dose computerized tomography to morphometrically analyse the thoracic intervertebral foramen osseous anatomy in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

INTRODUCTION The dimensions of the thoracic intervertebral foramen in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have not previously been quantified. During posterior approach scoliosis correction surgery pedicle screws may occasionally breach into the foramen. Better understanding of the dimensions of the foramen may be useful in surgical planning. This study describes a reproducible method for measurement of the thoracic foramen in AIS using computerized tomography (CT). METHODS In 23 pre-operative female patients with Lenke 1 type AIS with right side convexity major curves confined to the thoracic spine the foraminal height (FH), foraminal width (FW), pedicle to superior articular process distance (P-SAP) and cross sectional foraminal area (FA) were measured using multiplanar reconstructed CT. Measurements were made at entrance, midpoint and exit of the thoracic foramina from T1/T2 to T11/T12. Results were correlated with potential dependent variables of major curve Cobb Angle measured on X-ray and CT, Age, Weight, Lenke classification subtype, Risser Grade and number of spinal levels in the major curve. RESULTS The FH, FW, P-SAP and FA dimensions and ratios are all significantly larger on the convexity of the major curve and maximal at or close to the apex. Mean thoracic foraminal dimensions change in a predictable manner relative to position on the major thoracic curve. There was no significant correlation with the measured foraminal dimensions or ratios and the potential dependent variables. The average ratio of convexity to concavity dimensions at the apex foramina for entrance, midpoint and exit respectively are FH (1.50, 1.38, 1.25), FW (1.28, 1.30, 0.98), FA (2.06, 1.84, 1.32), P-SAP (1.61, 1.47, 1.30). CONCLUSION Foraminal dimensions of the thoracic spine are significantly affected by AIS. Foraminal dimensions have a predictable convexity to concavity ratio relative to the proximity to the major curve apex. Surgeons should be aware of these anatomical differences during scoliosis correction surgery.

On the effect of Reynolds number for flow past three side-by-side square cylinders for unequal gap spacings

Flow patterns and aerodynamic characteristics behind three side-by-side square cylinders has been found depending upon the unequal gap spacing (g1 = s1/d and g2 = s2/d) between the three cylinders and the Reynolds number (Re) using the Lattice Boltzmann method. The effect of Reynolds numbers on the flow behind three cylinders are numerically studied for 75 ≤ Re ≤ 175 and chosen unequal gap spacings such as (g1, g2) = (1.5, 1), (3, 4) and (7, 6). We also investigate the effect of g2 while keeping g1 fixed for Re = 150. It is found that a Reynolds number have a strong effect on the flow at small unequal gap spacing (g1, g2) = (1.5, 1.0). It is also found that the secondary cylinder interaction frequency significantly contributes for unequal gap spacing for all chosen Reynolds numbers. It is observed that at intermediate unequal gap spacing (g1, g2) = (3, 4) the primary vortex shedding frequency plays a major role and the effect of secondary cylinder interaction frequencies almost disappear. Some vortices merge near the exit and as a result small modulation found in drag and lift coefficients. This means that with the increase in the Reynolds numbers and unequal gap spacing shows weakens wakes interaction between the cylinders. At large unequal gap spacing (g1, g2) = (7, 6) the flow is fully periodic and no small modulation found in drag and lift coefficients signals. It is found that the jet flows for unequal gap spacing strongly influenced the wake interaction by varying the Reynolds number. These unequal gap spacing separate wake patterns for different Reynolds numbers: flip-flopping, in-phase and anti-phase modulation synchronized, in-phase and anti-phase synchronized. It is also observed that in case of equal gap spacing between the cylinders the effect of gap spacing is stronger than the Reynolds number. On the other hand, in case of unequal gap spacing between the cylinders the wake patterns strongly depends on both unequal gap spacing and Reynolds number. The vorticity contour visualization, time history analysis of drag and lift coefficients, power spectrum analysis of lift coefficient and force statistics are systematically discussed for all chosen unequal gap spacings and Reynolds numbers to fully understand this valuable and practical problem.

Making apartments affordable: Moving from speculative to deliberative development

Urban planning policies in Australia presuppose apartments as the new dominant housing type, but much of what the market has delivered is criticised as over-development, and as being generic, poorly-designed, environmentally unsustainable and unaffordable. Policy responses to this problem typically focus on planning regulation and construction costs as the primary issues needing to be addressed in order to increase the supply of quality, affordable apartment housing. In contrast, this paper uses Ball’s (1983) ‘structures of provision’ approach to outline the key processes informing apartment development and identifies a substantial gap in critical understanding of how apartments are developed in Australia. This reveals economic problems not typically considered by policymakers. Using mainstream economic analysis to review the market itself, the authors found high search costs, demand risk, problems with exchange, and lack of competition present key barriers to achieving greater affordability and limit the extent to which ‘speculative’ developers can respond to the preferences of would be owner-occupiers of apartments. The existing development model, which is reliant on capturing uplift in site value, suits investors seeking rental yields in the first instance and capital gains in the second instance, and actively encourages housing price inflation. This is exacerbated by lack of density restrictions, such as have existed in inner Melbourne for many years, which permits greater yields on redevelopment sites. The price of land in the vicinity of such redevelopment sites is pushed up as landholders' expectation of future yield is raised. All too frequently existing redevelopment sites go back onto the market as vendors seek to capture the uplift in site value and exit the project in a risk free manner...

The Influence of Processing Parameters on Characteristics of an Aluminum Alloy Spray Deposition

In the present investigation, two nozzle configurations are used for spray deposition, convergent nozzle (nozzle-A), and convergent nozzle with 2 mm parallel portion attached at its end (nozzle-C) without changing the exit area. First, the conditions for subambient aspiration pressure, i.e., pressure at the tip of the melt delivery tube, are established by varying the protrusion length of the melt delivery tube at different applied gas pressures for both of the nozzles. Using these conditions, spray deposits in a reproducible manner are successfully obtained for 7075 Al alloy. The effect of applied gas pressure, flight distance, and nozzle configuration on various characteristics of spray deposition, viz., yield, melt flow rate, and gas-to-metal ratio, is examined. The over-spray powder is also characterized with respect to powder size distribution, shape, and microstructure. Some of the results are explained with the help of numerical analysis presented in an earlier article.

Turbulent mixed convection in a shallow enclosure with a series of heat generating components

Turbulent mixed convection flow and heat transfer in a shallow enclosure with and without partitions and with a series of block-like heat generating components is studied numerically for a range of Reynolds and Grashof numbers with a time-dependent formulation. The flow and temperature distributions are taken to be two-dimensional. Regions with the same velocity and temperature distributions can be identified assuming repeated placement of the blocks and fluid entry and exit openings at regular distances, neglecting the end wall effects. One half of such module is chosen as the computational domain taking into account the symmetry about the vertical centreline. The mixed convection inlet velocity is treated as the sum of forced and natural convection components, with the individual components delineated based on pressure drop across the enclosure. The Reynolds number is based on forced convection velocity. Turbulence computations are performed using the standard k– model and the Launder–Sharma low-Reynolds number k– model. The results show that higher Reynolds numbers tend to create a recirculation region of increasing strength in the core region and that the effect of buoyancy becomes insignificant beyond a Reynolds number of typically 5×105. The Euler number in turbulent flows is higher by about 30 per cent than that in the laminar regime. The dimensionless inlet velocity in pure natural convection varies as Gr1/3. Results are also presented for a number of quantities of interest such as the flow and temperature distributions, Nusselt number, pressure drop and the maximum dimensionless temperature in the block, along with correlations.

State space formulation of ammonia reactor dynamics

The specific objective of this paper is to develop a state space model of a tubular ammonia reactor which is the heart of an ammonia plant in a fertiliser complex. A ninth order model with three control inputs and two disturbance inputs is generated from the nonlinear distributed model using linearization and lumping approximations. The lumped model is chosen such that the steady state temperature at the exit of the catalyst bed computed from the simplified state space model is close enough to the one computed from the nonlinear steady state model. The model developed in this paper is very useful for the design of continuous/discrete versions of single variable/multivariable control algorithms.

A Theoretical Investigation of the Ni(II)-Catalyzed Hydrovinylation of Styrene

We report a detailed and full computational investigation on the hydrovinylation reaction of styrene with the Ni(II)-phospholane catalytic system, which was originally presumed to proceed through a cationic mechanism involving a nickel hydride intermediate. The following general features emerge from this study on a specific catalyst complex that was found to give quantitative yield and moderate selectivity: (a) the activation barrier for the initiation (18.8 kcal/mol) is higher than that for the reaction due to a low-lying square-planar pentenyl chelate intermediate originating from a Ni(II)-allyl catalyst precursor. Consequently there is an induction period for the catalysis; (b) the exit of product from the catalyst is via a β-H-transfer step instead of the usual β-H elimination pathway, which has a very high activation energy due to a trans effect of the phospholane ligand; (c) the turnover-limiting and enantio- determining transition state is also the β-H-transfer; (d) because of the absence of a hydride intermediate, the unwanted isomerization of the product is prevented; (e) since the enantio-discrimination is decided at the H-transfer stage itself, the configuration of the product in a catalytic cycle influences the enantioselectivity in the subsequent cycle; (f) the trans effect of the sole strong ligand in the d8 square-planar Ni(II), the stability of the η3-benzyl intermediate, and the availability of three coordination sites enable regioselective hydrovinylation over the possible oligomerization/polymerization of the olefin substrates and linear hydrovinylation. This work has also confirmed the previously recognized role of the hemilabile group at various stages in the mechanism.

Losing the rural nursing workforce: Lessons learnt from resigning nurses

Background Australian workforce planning predicts a shortfall of nurses by 2025 with rural areas being most at risk. Rural areas have lower retention rates of nurses than metropolitan areas, with remote communities experiencing an even higher turnover of nursing staff. There have been few studies that examine the impact of nurse resignations on rural nursing workforces. Objective This paper is abstracted from a larger study into the reasons why nurses resign from rural hospitals and explores the resignation period. Design A qualitative study using grounded theory methods. Following in-depth interviewing and transcription, data analysis occurred with the assistance of NVivo software. Setting Rural NSW. Participants Twelve registered nurses who had resigned from rural NSW hospitals and not for reasons of retirement, maternity leave or relocation; two participants were re-interviewed. Results While the overall study identified a grounded theory which explained rural nurses resign from hospitals due to a conflict of values, three additional themes emerged about the resignation practices at rural hospitals. The first theme identified a ‘window period’ which was an opportunity for the nurse to be retained. The second theme identified that nurses who had resigned were not involved in formal exit processes such as exit interviews. The third theme captured the flow-on effect from rural nurse resignations resulting in nurses leaving the profession of nursing. Conclusion To facilitate nurse retention, it is important that rural hospitals manage nurse resignations more effectively. This includes re-examining resignation procedures, how nurses are treated and collecting meaningful data to inform retention strategies.

Predictors of disability retirement: From early intentions to retirement

The strong tendency of elderly employees to retire early and the simultaneous aging of the population have been major topics of policy and scientific debate. A key concern has been the financing of future pension schemes and possible labour shortage, especially in social and health services within the public sector. The aging of the population is inevitable, but efforts can be made to prevent or postpone early exit from the labour force, e.g., by identifying and intervening in the factors that contribute to the process of early retirement due to disability. The associations of intentions to retire early, poor mental health and different psychosocial factors with the process of disability retirement are still poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations of intentions to retire early, poor mental health, work and family related psychosocial factors and experiences of earlier life stages with the process of disability retirement. The data were derived from the Helsinki Health Study (HHS, N=8960) and the Health and Social Support Study (HeSSup, N=25 901). The Helsinki Health Study is an ongoing employee cohort study among middle-aged women and men. The Health and Social Support Study is an ongoing longitudinal study of a working-age sample representative of the Finnish population. The analyses were restricted to respondents 40 years of age or older. Age and gender adjusted prevalence and incidence rates were calculated. Associations were studied by using logistic, multinomial and Cox regression. Strong intentions to retire early were common among employees. Poor mental health, unfavourable working conditions and work-to-family conflicts were clearly associated with increased intentions to retire early. Strong intentions to retire early predicted disability retirement. Risk of disability retirement increased in a dose-response manner with increasing number of childhood adversities. Poor mental and somatic health, life dissatisfaction, heavy alcohol consumption, current smoking, obesity and low socioeconomic status were also predictors of disability retirement. The impact of poor mental health and adverse experiences from earlier life stages, work and family related psychosocial factors, e.g., work-family interface, the subjective experience of well-being and health related risk behaviours on the process of disability retirement should be recognised. Preventive measures against disability retirement should be launched before subjective experience of ill health, work disability and strong intentions to retire early emerge.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Theoretical study of a 16-µm CO2 downstream-mixing gasdynamic laser: A two-dimensional approach

A 16-µm CO2-N2 downstream-mixing gasdynamic laser, where a cold CO2 stream is mixed with a vibrationally excited N2 stream at the exit of the nozzle, is studied theoretically. The flow field is analyzed using a two-dimensional, unsteady, laminar and viscous flow model including appropriate finite-rate vibrational kinetic equations. The analysis showed that local small-signal gain up to 21.75 m−1 can be obtained for a N2 reservoir temperature of 2000 K and a velocity ratio of 1:1 between the CO2 and N2 mixing streams. Applied Physics Letters is copyrighted by The American Institute of Physics.

Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

To Greta: The Biography of Kurt Tauber 1914-1995

The memoir contains poems, eulogies and family photos and was written in 1995 in Connecticut. Recollections of the author's childhood in an orthodox Jewish family in the Leopoldstadt, the second district in Vienna. He was the third of four children. His father was a businessman who was dealing with clothing and textile. Kurt was enrolled in the same class as his older brother Hans at Gymnasium. Memories of his Bar Mitzvah celebration. Cello lessons and concerts with his brother Hans. After graduation Kurt started to study medicine at the Anatomic Institute of Julius Tandler at the Vienna University. Member of the liberal medical students' union "Wiener Mediziner". Acquaintance with his future-wife Greta. Skiing trip in the mountains. Antisemitic attacks at University, particularly within the faculties of law and medicine. Arrest under the false accusation of distributing illegal literature. In January 1938 Greta and Kurt Tauber were married. Worsening of political situation and rising of the illegal Nazi movement in Austria. Recollections of the "Anschluss" (Nazi take-over) in March 1938. Affidavit for Greta and Kurt from her brother in the United States. In June 1938 they went to London, where they waited for their visas to the US. Fervent attempts to arrange exit permits for their families in Vienna. Greta and Kurt Tauber arrived in New York in October of 1938. Difficult start at the beginning. Kurt started to work in a bakery. Greta and Kurt moved to a small apartment in the Lower East Side. Move to Queens with Greta's parents. Kurt's parents arrived in 1940 and moved to Washington Heights. Kurt and Greta started a baking business in Kew Gardens, Queens. Birth of their daughters Judy in 1941 and Ellen in 1944. Recollections of Passover family celebrations and vacations in the mountains and at Fleischmann's in the Catskills. Description of business encounters and family events, such as the birth of their grandchildren. Journey to Israel. Retirement and