Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

On an organizational level: How can the emergency department at Rouge Valley Centenary hospital improve their wait times?

The prolonged wait times may arguably put into question the Canadian Health Act of 1984. Statistics show throughput wait times are 5.5 hours and output wait times for admitted patients are 32.4 hours. After probing and analyzing best practices through a qualitative/quantitative Value Stream Mapping and a qualitative SWOT Analysis; Team Triage and an Overcapacity Protocol is suggested to improve non-admitted patients wait times by 1.89 hours and admitted patients wait times by 16 hours by eliminating wasteful steps in the patient process and upon overcapacity, effectively sharing already stabilized and admitted patients with all wards in the hospital.

Demographic determinants of survival of people living with HIV attending an outpatient reference unit in the city of Três Lagoas, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in the period 1984-2009

INTRODUCTION: While the incidence of HIV infection and AIDS is increasing in small Brazilian cities, epidemiological studies are often conducted in large urban centers. METHODS: Our group conducted a retrospective analysis of survival determinants among 358 patients who attended a reference unit in a small city. RESULTS: Death risk was lower among men that had sex with men, patients with an HIV-seropositive partner, and those admitted after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was available. CONCLUSIONS: The study documents the striking beneficial effect of HAART. The finding of other groups with improved survival may aid in the development of programmatic strategies.

O vestuário no cinema: percursos de análise em filmes portugueses de etnoficção

A presente tese enfrenta o tema do documentário e da ficção no cinema de etnoficção português pondo ao centro deste binómio o vestuário como fenómeno, ora votado a explicitar a verosimilhança das sequencias, ora ferramenta para criar uma simulação da realidade. Tratamos o termo etnoficção como se fosse um género cinematográfico e escolhemos, como exemplo de analise, 3 trilogias do cinema português. Tratamos o vestuário de acordo com os novos conceitos do corpo revestido que veem da Fashion Theory e nossas bases teóricas serão Simmel e Bogatyrev, Barthes e Calefato, entre outros. Analisar o vestuário de filmes por género ajuda por um lado na criação de uma primeira definição de todo este tipo de vestuário e por outro a compreender a sua importância dentro de uma obra fílmica. As partes teóricas sobre Fashion Theory e sobre o conceito de etno-ficção serão depois aplicadas aos filmes escolhidos, tentando ampliar os conhecimentos através da introdução de outros autores que se debruçaram sobre os dois assuntos, ao fim de unificar os dois conceitos, do corpo revestido e da etno-ficção, num só, de vestuário cinematográfico. Filmes analisados. Trilogia do Mar, de Leitão de Barros: Nazaré, praia de pescadores (1927), Maria do Mar (1929), Ala arriba! (1942); Trilogia de Trás-os-Montes, de António Reis e Margarina Cordeiro: Trás-os-Montes (1976), Ana (1984), Rosa de areia (1989); Trilogia das Fontainhas, de Pedro Costa: Ossos (1997), O quarto da Vanda (2000), Juventude em marcha (2006).

The early metallurgy in Southwestern Iberia: metals from the Chalcolithic Settlement of São Pedro (Redondo)

Archaeological excavations carried out in the archaeological site of São Pedro (Southern Portugal) revealed a Chalcolithic settlement occupied in different moments of the 3rd millennium BC. The material culture recovered includes different types of materials, such as ceramics, lithics and metals. The later comprises about 30 artefacts with different typologies such as tools (e.g. awls, chisels and a saw) and weapons (e.g. daggers and arrowheads) mostly belonging to the 2nd and 3rd quarter of the 3rd millennium BC. In the present work the collection of chalcolithic metallic artefacts recovered in São Pedro was characterized. Analytical studies involved micro energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (micro-EDXRF) to determine elemental composition, together with optical microscopy and Vickers microhardness testing for microstructural characterisation and hardness determination. Main results show copper with variable amounts of arsenic and very low content of other impurities, such as iron. Moreover, nearly half of the collection is composed by arsenical copper alloys (As > 2 wt.%) and an association was found between arsenic content and typology since the weapons group (mostly daggers) present higher values than tools (mostly awls). These results suggest some criteria in the selection of arsenic-rich copper ores or smelting products. Furthermore, after casting an artefact would have been hammered, annealed and sometimes, finished with a hammering operation. Additionally, microstructural variations in this collection reveal somewhat different operational conditions during casting, annealing and forging, as expected in such a primitive metallurgy. Moreover the operational sequence seems to be used to achieve the required shape to the object, rather than to intentionally make the alloy harder. Overall, this study suggests that Chalcolithic metallurgists might have a poor control of the addition of arsenic and/or were unable to use this element to increase the hardness of tools and weapons. Finally, the compositions, manufacturing processes and hardness were compared to those from neighbouring regions and different chronological periods.

Motivos aquáticos em mosaicos antigos de Portugal. Decorativismo e simbolismo

Neste breve texto da comunicação apresentada na Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, a 11 de Julho de 2008, no âmbito do I Ciclo Internacional de Palestras promovido pela APECMA – Associação Portuguesa para o Estudo e Conservação do Mosaico Antigo e IHA, Instituto de História da Arte, UNL, versamos sobre a ideografia das águas em mosaicos elaborados no espaço do actual território português (correspondente a parte das Províncias romanas da Lusitânia e da Galécia) e destacamos as dimensões decorativas e simbólicas que os motivos ictiográficos assumem nos conjuntos mais significativos.

Recensão: José Custódio Vieira da Silva e Pedro Redol, Mosteiro da Batalha

Recensão de: José Custódio Vieira da Silva, Pedro Redol. 2008.Mosteiro da Batalha. SCALA / IPPAR

Biologia de Anofelinos Amazônicos. VI. Variabilidade Enzimática em ANOPHELES DARLINGI Root. (DIPTERA, CULICIDAE)

São relatados resultados preliminares sobre o polimorfismo protético de populuções naturais de Anopheles darlingi, procedentes de duas localidades da região amazônica-Ariquemes (Rondônia) e Rodovia PA-422 (Pará). Pata as esterases, foi detectada variação para o locus Est-2na população de Ariquemes, enquanto foi monomórfico na população da PA-422, sendo verificados nesta última, apenas indivíduos com o genótipo Est2*F/Est2*F. A freqüência do alelo Est2*F foi estimada em 0,80 na população de Ariquemes, valor este muito maior do que o observado na população da BR-174 (Manaus/Boa Vista), em estudos anteriores, que foi de 0,48. Os resultados para o sistema da leucina aminopeptidase (LAP) sugerem que a enzima é controlada por três loci, aparentemente monomórficos em ambas as populações.

PRODUÇÃO PESQUEIRA EM PORTO VELHO, RONDÔNIA (1984-89) - ALGUNS ASPECTOS ECOLÓGICOS DAS ESPÉCIES COMERCIALMENTE RELEVANTES.

Foi realizado o levantamento do pescado comercializado em Porto Velho no período 1984-89, capturado na área de influência doe garimpos de ouro no rio Madeira, entre Guajará-Mirim (Rondônia) e Humaitá (Amazonas). A produção pesqueira é discutida de acordo com os hábitos alimentares e migratórios das espécies comercialmente relevantes. Constatou-se que do total capturado para pesca comercial, entre 39.3% (em 84) e 49.5% (em 89) são frutívoras, sendo que o Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) apresenta o maior volume de captura; entre 22.9% (em 09) e 32.5% (em 86) são detritívoras, sendo o Curimatá (Prochilodus nigricans) a mais significativa. Apenas entre 10.7% (em 85) e 15.1% (em 84) são espécies carnívoras (Tucunaré - Cichia sp e Dourada - Brachyplatystoma flavicans). São feitos alguns comentários sobre os fatores ecológicos que possivelmente interferem na acumulação do mercúrio nas cadeias alimentares.

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Estudo da dinâmica da floresta manejada no projeto de manejo florestal comunitário do PC Pedro Peixoto na Amazônia Ocidental

Neste trabalho são apresentados resultados do estudo da dinâmica da floresta em um sistema de manejo florestal voltado para a pequena propriedade. O sistema prescreve ciclo de corte de 10 anos e taxa de corte de 10 m³.ha-1 e tração animal para o arraste. O crescimento da floresta de 1 m³.ha-1.ano-1 foi compatível com o ciclo e taxa de corte adotados. Os danos causados pela exploração representaram 5 % da área basal total, e a taxa de mortalidade quatro anos após a exploração foi 3,2 %.

Da utilização e análise de dados de Geofísica em contextos arqueológicos: o Castro de Sapelos (Boticas) e o Seminário Conciliar de São Pedro e São Paulo (Braga)

Dissertação de mestrado em Arqueologia

Acute myocardial infarction in the Brazilian State of São Paulo. In-hospital deaths from 1979 to 1996 and hospital fatality from 1984 to 1998 in the public health system

OBJECTIVE: To determine the following parameters in the Brazilian State of São Paulo: 1) the percentage of deaths due to acute myocardial infarction (AMI) occurring in hospitals; 2) the percentage of deaths due to AMI occurring in public health system hospitals as compared with all in-hospital deaths due to AMI between 1979 and 1996; 3) the fatality due to AMI in public health system hospitals from 1984 to 1998. METHODS: Data were available on the Datasus Web site (the health information agency of the Brazilian Department of Health) that provided the following: a) number of deaths resulting from AMI in hospitals; b) number of deaths resulting from AMI in public health system hospitals; c) number of hospital admissions due to AMI in public health system hospitals. RESULTS: The percentage of in-hospital deaths due to AMI increased from 54.9 in 1979 to 68.6 in 1996. The percentage contribution of the public health system to total number of deaths due to AMI occurring in hospitals decreased from 22.9 in 1984 to 13.7 in 1996; fatality due to AMI occurring in public health system hospitals had an irregular evolution from 1984 to 1992 and showed a slight trend for increased frequency from 1993 to 1998. CONCLUSION: The percentage of in-hospital deaths due to AMI has been increasing. Deaths resulting from AMI in public health system hospitals have decreased when compared with the total number of deaths due to AMI in all hospitals. Fatality due to AMI in public health system hospitals did not decrease from 1992 to 1998.