The specification of vector autoregressive moving average models

In this paper we propose a new identification method based on the residual white noise autoregressive criterion (Pukkila et al. , 1990) to select the order of VARMA structures. Results from extensive simulation experiments based on different model structures with varying number of observations and number of component series are used to demonstrate the performance of this new procedure. We also use economic and business data to compare the model structures selected by this order selection method with those identified in other published studies.

The 'moving targets' training algorithm

A simple method for training the dynamical behavior of a neural network is derived. It is applicable to any training problem in discrete-time networks with arbitrary feedback. The method resembles back-propagation in that it is a least-squares, gradient-based optimization method, but the optimization is carried out in the hidden part of state space instead of weight space. A straightforward adaptation of this method to feedforward networks offers an alternative to training by conventional back-propagation. Computational results are presented for simple dynamical training problems, with varied success. The failures appear to arise when the method converges to a chaotic attractor. A patch-up for this problem is proposed. The patch-up involves a technique for implementing inequality constraints which may be of interest in its own right.

Modelling water droplet movement on a leaf surface

The central aim for the research undertaken in this PhD thesis is the development of a model for simulating water droplet movement on a leaf surface and to compare the model behavior with experimental observations. A series of five papers has been presented to explain systematically the way in which this droplet modelling work has been realised. Knowing the path of the droplet on the leaf surface is important for understanding how a droplet of water, pesticide, or nutrient will be absorbed through the leaf surface. An important aspect of the research is the generation of a leaf surface representation that acts as the foundation of the droplet model. Initially a laser scanner is used to capture the surface characteristics for two types of leaves in the form of a large scattered data set. After the identification of the leaf surface boundary, a set of internal points is chosen over which a triangulation of the surface is constructed. We present a novel hybrid approach for leaf surface fitting on this triangulation that combines Clough-Tocher (CT) and radial basis function (RBF) methods to achieve a surface with a continuously turning normal. The accuracy of the hybrid technique is assessed using numerical experimentation. The hybrid CT-RBF method is shown to give good representations of Frangipani and Anthurium leaves. Such leaf models facilitate an understanding of plant development and permit the modelling of the interaction of plants with their environment. The motion of a droplet traversing this virtual leaf surface is affected by various forces including gravity, friction and resistance between the surface and the droplet. The innovation of our model is the use of thin-film theory in the context of droplet movement to determine the thickness of the droplet as it moves on the surface. Experimental verification shows that the droplet model captures reality quite well and produces realistic droplet motion on the leaf surface. Most importantly, we observed that the simulated droplet motion follows the contours of the surface and spreads as a thin film. In the future, the model may be applied to determine the path of a droplet of pesticide along a leaf surface before it falls from or comes to a standstill on the surface. It will also be used to study the paths of many droplets of water or pesticide moving and colliding on the surface.

Decomposition of circular dichroism of norepinephrine by singular value decomposition-least square method

Singular value decomposition - least squares (SVDLS), a new method for processing the multiple spectra with multiple wavelengths and multiple components in thin layer spectroelectrochemistry has been developed. The CD spectra of three components, norepinephrine reduced form of norepinephrinechrome and norepinephrinequinone, and their fraction distributions with applied potential were obtained in three redox processes of norepinephrine from 30 experimental CD spectra, which well explains electrochemical mechanism of norepinephrine as well as the changes in the CD spectrum during the electrochemical processes.

An Analog VLSI Chip for Estimating the Focus of Expansion

For applications involving the control of moving vehicles, the recovery of relative motion between a camera and its environment is of high utility. This thesis describes the design and testing of a real-time analog VLSI chip which estimates the focus of expansion (FOE) from measured time-varying images. Our approach assumes a camera moving through a fixed world with translational velocity; the FOE is the projection of the translation vector onto the image plane. This location is the point towards which the camera is moving, and other points appear to be expanding outward from. By way of the camera imaging parameters, the location of the FOE gives the direction of 3-D translation. The algorithm we use for estimating the FOE minimizes the sum of squares of the differences at every pixel between the observed time variation of brightness and the predicted variation given the assumed position of the FOE. This minimization is not straightforward, because the relationship between the brightness derivatives depends on the unknown distance to the surface being imaged. However, image points where brightness is instantaneously constant play a critical role. Ideally, the FOE would be at the intersection of the tangents to the iso-brightness contours at these "stationary" points. In practice, brightness derivatives are hard to estimate accurately given that the image is quite noisy. Reliable results can nevertheless be obtained if the image contains many stationary points and the point is found that minimizes the sum of squares of the perpendicular distances from the tangents at the stationary points. The FOE chip calculates the gradient of this least-squares minimization sum, and the estimation is performed by closing a feedback loop around it. The chip has been implemented using an embedded CCD imager for image acquisition and a row-parallel processing scheme. A 64 x 64 version was fabricated in a 2um CCD/ BiCMOS process through MOSIS with a design goal of 200 mW of on-chip power, a top frame rate of 1000 frames/second, and a basic accuracy of 5%. A complete experimental system which estimates the FOE in real time using real motion and image scenes is demonstrated.

An Invariant Representation for Matching Trajectories across Uncalibrated Video Streams

We introduce a view-point invariant representation of moving object trajectories that can be used in video database applications. It is assumed that trajectories lie on a surface that can be locally approximated with a plane. Raw trajectory data is first locally approximated with a cubic spline via least squares fitting. For each sampled point of the obtained curve, a projective invariant feature is computed using a small number of points in its neighborhood. The resulting sequence of invariant features computed along the entire trajectory forms the view invariant descriptor of the trajectory itself. Time parametrization has been exploited to compute cross ratios without ambiguity due to point ordering. Similarity between descriptors of different trajectories is measured with a distance that takes into account the statistical properties of the cross ratio, and its symmetry with respect to the point at infinity. In experiments, an overall correct classification rate of about 95% has been obtained on a dataset of 58 trajectories of players in soccer video, and an overall correct classification rate of about 80% has been obtained on matching partial segments of trajectories collected from two overlapping views of outdoor scenes with moving people and cars.

Application of the european customer satisfaction index to postal services. Structural equation models versus partial least squars

Customer satisfaction and retention are key issues for organizations in today’s competitive market place. As such, much research and revenue has been invested in developing accurate ways of assessing consumer satisfaction at both the macro (national) and micro (organizational) level, facilitating comparisons in performance both within and between industries. Since the instigation of the national customer satisfaction indices (CSI), partial least squares (PLS) has been used to estimate the CSI models in preference to structural equation models (SEM) because they do not rely on strict assumptions about the data. However, this choice was based upon some misconceptions about the use of SEM’s and does not take into consideration more recent advances in SEM, including estimation methods that are robust to non-normality and missing data. In this paper, both SEM and PLS approaches were compared by evaluating perceptions of the Isle of Man Post Office Products and Customer service using a CSI format. The new robust SEM procedures were found to be advantageous over PLS. Product quality was found to be the only driver of customer satisfaction, while image and satisfaction were the only predictors of loyalty, thus arguing for the specificity of postal services

Sparse multioutput radial basis function network construction using combined locally regularised orthogonal least square and D-optimality experimental design

A construction algorithm for multioutput radial basis function (RBF) network modelling is introduced by combining a locally regularised orthogonal least squares (LROLS) model selection with a D-optimality experimental design. The proposed algorithm aims to achieve maximised model robustness and sparsity via two effective and complementary approaches. The LROLS method alone is capable of producing a very parsimonious RBF network model with excellent generalisation performance. The D-optimality design criterion enhances the model efficiency and robustness. A further advantage of the combined approach is that the user only needs to specify a weighting for the D-optimality cost in the combined RBF model selecting criterion and the entire model construction procedure becomes automatic. The value of this weighting does not influence the model selection procedure critically and it can be chosen with ease from a wide range of values.

Essays on Spatial Econometrics

Esta dissertação concentra-se nos processos estocásticos espaciais definidos em um reticulado, os chamados modelos do tipo Cliff & Ord. Minha contribuição nesta tese consiste em utilizar aproximações de Edgeworth e saddlepoint para investigar as propriedades em amostras finitas do teste para detectar a presença de dependência espacial em modelos SAR (autoregressivo espacial), e propor uma nova classe de modelos econométricos espaciais na qual os parâmetros que afetam a estrutura da média são distintos dos parâmetros presentes na estrutura da variância do processo. Isto permite uma interpretação mais clara dos parâmetros do modelo, além de generalizar uma proposta de taxonomia feita por Anselin (2003). Eu proponho um estimador para os parâmetros do modelo e derivo a distribuição assintótica do estimador. O modelo sugerido na dissertação fornece uma interpretação interessante ao modelo SARAR, bastante comum na literatura. A investigação das propriedades em amostras finitas dos testes expande com relação a literatura permitindo que a matriz de vizinhança do processo espacial seja uma função não-linear do parâmetro de dependência espacial. A utilização de aproximações ao invés de simulações (mais comum na literatura), permite uma maneira fácil de comparar as propriedades dos testes com diferentes matrizes de vizinhança e corrigir o tamanho ao comparar a potência dos testes. Eu obtenho teste invariante ótimo que é também localmente uniformemente mais potente (LUMPI). Construo o envelope de potência para o teste LUMPI e mostro que ele é virtualmente UMP, pois a potência do teste está muito próxima ao envelope (considerando as estruturas espaciais definidas na dissertação). Eu sugiro um procedimento prático para construir um teste que tem boa potência em uma gama de situações onde talvez o teste LUMPI não tenha boas propriedades. Eu concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com o tamanho da amostra e com o parâmetro de dependência espacial (o que está de acordo com a literatura). Entretanto, disputo a visão consensual que a potência do teste diminui a medida que a matriz de vizinhança fica mais densa. Isto reflete um erro de medida comum na literatura, pois a distância estatística entre a hipótese nula e a alternativa varia muito com a estrutura da matriz. Fazendo a correção, concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com a distância da alternativa à nula, como esperado.

Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100

Neste trabalho, propomos uma especificação de modelo econométrico na forma reduzida, estimado por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) e baseado em variáveis macroeconômicas, com o objetivo de explicar os retornos trimestrais do índice de ações IBRX-100, entre 2001 e 2015. Testamos ainda a eficiência preditiva do modelo e concluímos que o erro de previsão estimado em janela móvel, com re-estimação de MQO a cada rodada, e utilização de VAR auxiliar para projeção dos regressores, é significativamente inferior ao erro de previsão associado à hipótese de Random Walk para o horizonte de previsão de um trimestre a frente.

DETERMINATION of SILICON IN LUBRICANT OIL BY HIGH-RESOLUTION CONTINUUM SOURCE FLAME ATOMIC ABSORPTION SPECTROMETRY USING LEAST-SQUARE BACKGROUND CORRECTION and INTERNAL STANDARDIZATION

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Application of a meshless method in electromagnetics

An improved meshless method is presented with an emphasis on the detailed description of this new computational technique and its numerical implementations by investigating the usefulness of a commonly neglected parameter in this paper. Two approaches to enforce essential boundary conditions are also thoroughly investigated. Numerical tests on a mathematical function is carried out as a means of validating the proposed method. It will be seen that the proposed method is more robust than the conventional ones. Applications in solving electromagnetic problems are also presented.

Precision of yule-walker methods for the arma spectral model

In this work a new method is proposed of separated estimation for the ARMA spectral model based on the modified Yule-Walker equations and on the least squares method. The proposal of the new method consists of performing an AR filtering in the random process generated obtaining a new random estimate, which will reestimate the ARMA model parameters, given a better spectrum estimate. Some numerical examples will be presented in order to ilustrate the performance of the method proposed, which is evaluated by the relative error and the average variation coefficient.

Development and validation of an environmentally friendly attenuated total reflectance in the mid-infrared region method for the determination of ethanol content in used engine lubrication oil

Lubricating oils are crucial in the operation of automotive engines because they both reduce friction between moving parts and protect against corrosion. However, the performance of lubricant oil may be affected by contaminants, such as gasoline, diesel, ethanol, water and ethylene glycol. Although there are many standard methods and studies related to the quantification of contaminants in lubricant oil, such as gasoline and diesel oil, to the best of our knowledge, no methods have been reported for the quantification of ethanol in used Otto cycle engine lubrication oils. Therefore, this work aimed at the development and validation of a routine method based on partial least-squares multivariate analysis combined with attenuated total reflectance in the mid-infrared region to quantify ethanol content in used lubrication oil. The method was validated based on its figures of merit (using the net analyte signal) as follows: limit of detection (0.049%), limit of quantification (0.16%), accuracy (root mean square error of prediction=0.089% w/w), repeatability (0.05% w/w), fit (R 2 =0.9997), mean selectivity (0.047), sensitivity (0.011), inverse analytical sensitivity (0.016% w/w-1) and signal-to-noise ratio (max: 812.4 and min: 200.9). The results show that the proposed method can be routinely implemented for the quality control of lubricant oils. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.