Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon

Under the project `Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Monsoon' (SPIM), the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by five atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) during 1985-2004 was assessed. The project was a collaborative effort of the coordinators and scientists from the different modelling groups across the country. All the runs were made at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) at Bangalore on the PARAM Padma supercomputing system. Two sets of simulations were made for this purpose. In the first set, the AGCMs were forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) for May-September during 1985-2004. In the second set, runs were made for 1987, 1988, 1994, 1997 and 2002 forced by SST which was obtained by assuming that the April anomalies persist during May-September. The results of the first set of runs show, as expected from earlier studies, that none of the models were able to simulate the correct sign of the anomaly of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for all the years. However, among the five models, one simulated the correct sign in the largest number of years and the second model showed maximum skill in the simulation of the extremes (i.e. droughts or excess rainfall years). The first set of runs showed some common bias which could arise either from an excessive sensitivity of the models to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or an inability of the models to simulate the link of the Indian monsoon rainfall to Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), or both. Analysis of the second set of runs showed that with a weaker ENSO forcing, some models could simulate the link with EQUINOO, suggesting that the errors in the monsoon simulations with observed SST by these models could be attributed to unrealistically high sensitivity to ENSO.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Intraseasonal Variation of the Summer Monsoon I:Observational Aspects

Within the summer monsoon, the circulation and rainfall over the Indian region exhibit large variations over the synoptic scale of 3-7 days and the supersynoptic scales of 10 days and longer. In this paper we discuss some facets of intraseasonal variation on the supersynoptic scale on the basis of existing observational studies and some new analysis. The major variation of the summer monsoon rainfall on this scale is the active-break cycle. The deep convection over the Indian region on a typical day in the active phase is organized over thousands of kilometers in the zonal direction and is associated with a tropical convergence zone (TCZ). The intraseasonal variations on the supersynoptic scale are also coherent on these scales and are related to the space-time variation of the large-scale TCZ. The latitudinal distribution of the occurrence of the TCZ is bimodal with the primary mode over the heated continent and a secondary mode over the ocean. The variation of the continental TCZ is generally out of phase with that of the oceanic TCZ. During the active spells, the TCZ persists over the continent in the monsoon zone. The revival from breaks occurs either by northward propagation of the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean or by genesis of a disturbance in the monsoon zone (often as a result of westward propagations from W. Pacific). The mechanisms governing the fluctuation between active spells and breaks, the interphase transition and the complex interactions of the TCZ over the Indian subcontinent with the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the W. Pacific, have yet to be completely understood.

Hydrography and circulation in the western Bay of Bengal during the northeast monsoon

The Bay of Bengal, a semienclosed tropical basin that comes under the influence of monsoonal wind and freshwater influx, is distinguished by a strongly stratified surface layer and a seasonally reversing circulation. We discuss characteristics of these features in the western Bay during the northeast monsoon, when the East India Coastal Current (EICC) flows southward, using hydrographic data collected during December 1991. Vertical profiles show uniform temperature and salinity in a homogeneous surface layer, on average, 25 m deep but shallower northward and coastward. The halocline, immediately below, is approximately 50 m thick; salinity changes by approximately 3 parts per thousand. About two thirds of the profiles show temperature inversions in this layer. Salinity below the halocline hardly changes, and stratification is predominantly due to temperature variation, The halocline is noticeably better developed and the surface homogeneous layer is thinner in a low-salinity plume that hugs the coastline along the entire east coast of India, The plume is, on average, 50 km wide, with isohalines sloping down toward the coast. Most prominent in the geostrophic velocity field is the equatorward EICC. Its transport north of about 13 degrees N, computed with 1000 dbar as the level of reference, varies between 2.6 and 7.1 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1); just south of this latitude, a northwestward flow from offshore recurves and merges with the coastal current. At the southern end of the region surveyed, the transport is 7.7 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1). Recent model studies lead us to conclude that the EICC during the northeast monsoon is driven by winds along the east coast of India and Ekman pumping in the interior bay. In the south, Ekman pumping over the southwestern bay is responsible for the northwestward flow that merges with the EICC.

The mean and turbulence structure simulation of the monsoon trough boundary layer using a one-dimensional model with e-l and e-epsilon closures

An attempt has been made here to study the sensitivity of the mean and the turbulence structure of the monsoon trough boundary layer to the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation for two stations Delhi and Calcutta, using one-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer model with e-epsilon turbulence closure. An analytical discussion of the problems associated with the constants of the dissipation equation is presented. It is shown here that the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation is quite crucial and the turbulence structure is very sensitive to these constants. The modification of the dissipation equation adopted by earlier studies, that is, approximating the Tke generation (due to shear and buoyancy production) in the epsilon-equation by max (shear production, shear + buoyancy production), can be avoided by a suitable choice of the constants suggested here. The observed turbulence structure is better simulated with these constants. The turbulence structure simulation with the constants recommended by Aupoix et al (1989) (which are interactive in time) for the monsoon region is shown to be qualitatively similar to the simulation obtained with the constants suggested here, thus implying that no universal constants exist to regulate dissipation rate. Simulations of the mean structure show little sensitivity to the type of the closure parameterization between e-l and e-epsilon closures. However the turbulence structure simulation with e-epsilon closure is far better compared to the e-l model simulations. The model simulations of temperature profiles compare quite well with the observations whenever the boundary layer is well mixed (neutral) or unstable. However the models are not able to simulate the nocturnal boundary layer (stable) temperature profiles. Moisture profiles are simulated reasonably better. With one-dimensional models, capturing observed wind variations is not up to the mark.

Turbulent heat flux variation over the Monsoon-Trough region during MONTBLEX-90

Tower data collected during the Monsoon-Trough Boundary Layer Experiment (MONTBLEX-90) have been analysed to understand the observed structure of the surface layer over an arid region (Jodhpur) and a moist region (Kharagpur) during active and weak phases of the 1990 southwest monsoon. Turbulent heat and momentum fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation method using sonic data. The turbulent momentum flux at both Jodhpur and Kharagpur was larger when the winds were stronger, reaching a maximum of the order of 0.5 N m(-2) on 5 and 6 August when a low pressure system was located over the region. The heat flux at Jodhpur is high during weak monsoon days, the maximum being 450 W m(-2), whereas during active days the flux never exceeds 200 W m(-2). At Kharagpur, the flux does not vary significantly between active and weak monsoon days, the maximum in either phase being 160 W m(-2) At Jodhpur, there is significant contrast in the near-surface air temperature, being higher during weak monsoon days as compared to active days. Cloud cover did not vary significantly in both the regions. The turbulent heat flux variation at both the sites appears to be correlated mainly with soil mixture, and less sensitive to cloud cover.

Genesis of the monsoon trough boundary layer experiment (MONTBLEX)

This paper sets out the motivation for carrying out an observational experiment on the atmospheric boundary layer along the monsoon trough, in the light of earlier studies of the atmospheric boundary layer in India and elsewhere, and the significant role that the trough has been shown to play as a key semi-permanent feature of the southwest monsoon. The scientific objectives of the experiment are set out, and its planning and execution are touched upon. Some of the gains resulting from the experiment are mentioned, and lessons for the future about the conduct of such programmes are drawn.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Rossby waves in May and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Large amplitude stationary Rossby wave trains with wavelength in the range 50 degrees to 60 degrees longitude have been identified in the upper troposphere during May, through the analysis of 200 hPa wind anomalies. The spatial phase of these waves has been shown to differ by about 20 degrees of longitude between the dry and wet Indian monsoon years. It has been shown empirically that the Rossby waves are induced by the heat sources in the ITCZ. These heat sources appear in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining regions in May just prior to the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. The inter-annual spatial phase shift of the Rossby waves has been shown to be related to the shift in the deep convection in the zonal direction.

Diminished chaos of heart rate time series in patients with major depression

Background: Depression and anxiety have been linked to serious cardiovascular events in patients with preexisting cardiac illness. A decrease in cardiac vagal function as suggested by a decrease in heart rate (HR) variability has been linked to sudden death. Methods: We compared LLE and nonlinearity scores of the unfiltered (UF) and filtered time series (very low, low, and high frequency; VLF, LF and HF) of HR between patients with depression (n = 14) and healthy control subjects (n = 18). Results: We found significantly lower LLE of the unfiltered series in either posture, and HF series in patients with major depression in supine posture (p < .002). LLE (LF/UF), which may indicate relative sympathetic activity was also significantly higher in supine and standing postures in patients (p < .05); LF/HF (LLE) was also higher in patients (p < .05) in either posture. Conclusions: These findings suggest that major depression is associated with decreased cardiac vagal function and a relative increase in sympathetic function, which may be related to the higher risk of cardiovascular mortality, in this group and illustrates the usefulness of nonlinear measures of chaos such as LLE in addition to the commonly used spectral measures.

Enhanced aerosol loading over Arabian Sea during the pre-monsoon season: Natural or anthropogenic?

[1] Recent experiments conducted over the oceanic regions adjacent to the Indian sub continent have revealed the presence of anthropogenic aerosol haze during January to March. It has been suggested that the major source of this aerosol is South and Southeast Asia. Here we show from long term, multi-station and ship borne observations that aerosols transported from regions northwest of Indian subcontinent especially Arabian and Saharan regions (mostly natural dust) along with the locally produced sea-salt aerosols by sea-surface winds constitute a more significant source of aerosols during April-May period. The radiative forcing due to Arabian/Saharan aerosols (mostly natural) during April May period is comparable and often exceed (as much as 1.5 times) the forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols during January to March period. The presence of dust load over the Arabian Sea can influence the temperature profile and radiative balance in this region.

Major depression with ischemic heart disease: Effects of paroxetine and nortriptyline on measures of nonlinearity and chaos of heart rate

Depression is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with preexisting cardiac illness. A decrease in cardiac vagal function as suggested by a decrease in heart rate variability (HRV) or heart period variability has been linked to sudden death in patients with cardiac disease as well as in normal controls. Recent studies have shown decreased vagal function in cardiac patients with depression as well as in depressed patients without cardiac illness. In this study, we compared 20 h awake and sleep heart period nonlinear measures using quantification of nonlinearity and chaos in two groups of patients with major depression and ischemic heart disease (mean age 59-60 years) before and after 6 weeks of treatment with paroxetine or nortriptyline. Patients received paroxetine, 20-30 mg/day or nortriptyline targeted to 190-570 nmol/l for 6 weeks. For HRV analysis, 24 patients were included in the paroxetine treatment study and 20 patients in the nortriptyline study who had at least 20,000 s of awake data. The ages of these groups were 60.4 +/- 10.5 years for paroxetine and 60.8 +/- 13.4 years for nortriptyline. There was a significant decrease in the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) after treatment with nortriptyline but not paroxetine. There were also significant decreases in nonlinearity scores on S-netPR and S-netGS after nortriptyline, which may be due to a decrease in cardiac vagal modulation of HRV. S-netGS and awake LLE were the most significant variables that contributed to the discrimination of postparoxetine and postnortriptyline groups even with the inclusion of time and frequency domain measures. These findings suggest that nortriptyline decreases the measures of chaos probably through its stronger vagolytic effects on cardiac autonomic function compared with paroxetine, which is in agreement with previous clinical and preclinical reports. Nortriptyline was also associated with a significant decrease in nonlinearity scores, which may be due to anticholinergic and/or sympatholytic effects. As depression is associated with a strong risk factor for cardiovascular mortality, one should be careful about using any drug that adversely affects cardiac vagal function. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.