Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences - that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

Spectral analysis of the electromyograph of the erector spinae muscle before and after a dynamic manual load-lifting test

The aim of the present study was to assess the spectral behavior of the erector spinae muscle during isometric contractions performed before and after a dynamic manual load-lifting test carried out by the trunk in order to determine the capacity of muscle to perform this task. Nine healthy female students participated in the experiment. Their average age, height, and body mass (± SD) were 20 ± 1 years, 1.6 ± 0.03 m, and 53 ± 4 kg, respectively. The development of muscle fatigue was assessed by spectral analysis (median frequency) and root mean square with time. The test consisted of repeated bending movements from the trunk, starting from a 45º angle of flexion, with the application of approximately 15, 25 and 50% of maximum individual load, to the stand up position. The protocol used proved to be more reliable with loads exceeding 50% of the maximum for the identification of muscle fatigue by electromyography as a function of time. Most of the volunteers showed an increase in root mean square versus time on both the right (N = 7) and the left (N = 6) side, indicating a tendency to become fatigued. With respect to the changes in median frequency of the electromyographic signal, the loads used in this study had no significant effect on either the right or the left side of the erector spinae muscle at this frequency, suggesting that a higher amount and percentage of loads would produce more substantial results in the study of isotonic contractions.

Partial characterization of the polluting load of swine wastewater treated with an integrated biodigestion system

The stabilization of swine wastewaters from swine confined housing by the combination of a upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor and waste stabilization ponds is a viable alternative to minimize the environmental impact caused by inadequate disposal of swine wastewaters. In the present study, the polluting load of pre-decanted swine wastewater treated with a series of two 0.705 m(3) UASB reactors and then in parallel in aerated and non-aerated stabilization tanks was investigated from January to July, 2000. Physicochemical and microbiological analyses were made adopting standard methods (Standard Methods for Examination of Water and Wastewater, 19th ed., American Public Health Association, Washington, DC, 1995). COD values decreased as the wastewater ran through the integrated biodigestion system dropping from about 3492 +/- 511-4094 mg l(-1) +/- 481 to 124 +/- 52-490 mg l(-1) +/- 230, while nitrate and nitrite levels increased in stabilization tanks, ranging respectively from 4 +/- 0 to 20 mg l(-1) +/- 3 and 3 +/- 1 to 11 mg l(-1) +/- 24. Although the removal of Escherichia coli was more than 97% +/- 6, the effluents of the treatment system still contained unacceptable levels of E. coli (1.6 x 10(3)-1.2 x 10(6) 100 ml(-1)) according to WHO guidelines for use of wastewater in agriculture and aquaculture. These results indicate the necessity of changes on operational characteristics of the treatment system such as an increase of the hydraulic retention time in UASB reactors or in stabilization tanks. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Analysis of efficiency and rationality in a sugar-alcohol mill using hyperboloid a-load and potency

Brazil is the world's largest producer of sugar cane and which in the state of São Paulo concentrate the greatest amount of sugar cane field of the country. The sugar-alcohol sector has the capacity to produce sufficient thermal and electrical energy to be used in their process of production and commercialize of surplus in electricity distribution network. Therefore it is necessary to evaluate the energy efficiency and rationality within the mill. Accordingly this research proposed analyze the sugar-alcohol mill's sectors globally and individually, located in the west center of the São Paulo state, using the valuation methodology employed by the Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) in the industries that do not have systems of cogeneration. In this analysis, the hyperboloids of load and potency were applied based on the indexes of potency factor and load factor that allow estimate the efficiency and rationality. © 2013 IEEE.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

Immunization of Wistar female rats with 255-Gy-irradiated Toxoplasma gondii: Preventing parasite load and maternofoetal transmission

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison of microbial load in immersion chilling water and poultry carcasses after 8, 16 and 24 working hours

As atividades dos estabelecimentos de abate de frangos são conhecidas por utilizarem grandes volumes de água durante seus processos, principalmente no processo de resfriamento das carcaças de frangos. Parte desse volume utilizado se faz necessário, em cumprimento à legislação que determina que cada tanque do sistema de pré-resfriadores contínuos por imersão deve ser completamente esvaziado, limpo e desinfetado no final de cada período de trabalho (oito horas). O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar a carga microbiana das águas do sistema de resfriamento e das carcaças de frango ao final de oito, dezesseis e vinte e quatro horas de trabalho do abatedouro, para possível redução do número de vezes do completo esvaziamento dos tanques do sistema de resfriamento. Foram avaliadas, por meio de métodos convencionais microbiológicos e físico-químicos, amostras da água de abastecimento (n=69), visando a evitar possível interferência nas contagens das águas do sistema de resfriamento, amostras de carcaças de frango antes (n=345) e após (n=345) sua passagem pelo sistema de resfriamento e amostras de águas do último estágio do sistema de resfriamento de carcaças (n=69). Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que não houve diferença significativa na carga microbiana das amostras entre as três jornadas de trabalho do estabelecimento, sugerindo que a redução é segura, diminuindo assim o volume de águas residuais e seu impacto no meio ambiente, bem como melhorando o uso racional do tempo de processamento.

Increasing Utilization of US Electric Grids via Smart Technologies: Integration of Load Management, Real Time Pricing, Renewables, EVs and Smart Grid Sensors

Electric power grids throughout the world suffer from serious inefficiencies associated with under-utilization due to demand patterns, engineering design and load following approaches in use today. These grids consume much of the world’s energy and represent a large carbon footprint. From material utilization perspectives significant hardware is manufactured and installed for this infrastructure often to be used at less than 20-40% of its operational capacity for most of its lifetime. These inefficiencies lead engineers to require additional grid support and conventional generation capacity additions when renewable technologies (such as solar and wind) and electric vehicles are to be added to the utility demand/supply mix. Using actual data from the PJM [PJM 2009] the work shows that consumer load management, real time price signals, sensors and intelligent demand/supply control offer a compelling path forward to increase the efficient utilization and carbon footprint reduction of the world’s grids. Underutilization factors from many distribution companies indicate that distribution feeders are often operated at only 70-80% of their peak capacity for a few hours per year, and on average are loaded to less than 30-40% of their capability. By creating strong societal connections between consumers and energy providers technology can radically change this situation. Intelligent deployment of smart sensors, smart electric vehicles, consumer-based load management technology very high saturations of intermittent renewable energy supplies can be effectively controlled and dispatched to increase the levels of utilization of existing utility distribution, substation, transmission, and generation equipment. The strengthening of these technology, society and consumer relationships requires rapid dissemination of knowledge (real time prices, costs & benefit sharing, demand response requirements) in order to incentivize behaviors that can increase the effective use of technological equipment that represents one of the largest capital assets modern society has created.

Sensitivity Analysis for the Assessment of Causal Vaccine Effects on Viral Load in HIV Vaccine Trials

Vaccines with limited ability to prevent HIV infection may positively impact the HIV/AIDS pandemic by preventing secondary transmission and disease in vaccine recipients who become infected. To evaluate the impact of vaccination on secondary transmission and disease, efficacy trials assess vaccine effects on HIV viral load and other surrogate endpoints measured after infection. A standard test that compares the distribution of viral load between the infected subgroups of vaccine and placebo recipients does not assess a causal effect of vaccine, because the comparison groups are selected after randomization. To address this problem, we formulate clinically relevant causal estimands using the principal stratification framework developed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002), and propose a class of logistic selection bias models whose members identify the estimands. Given a selection model in the class, procedures are developed for testing and estimation of the causal effect of vaccination on viral load in the principal stratum of subjects who would be infected regardless of randomization assignment. We show how the procedures can be used for a sensitivity analysis that quantifies how the causal effect of vaccination varies with the presumed magnitude of selection bias.

Are implants more reliable than severely compromised endodontically treated teeth as abutments for zirconia-based FPDs? : In vitro results of long-term preclinical load simulation

OBJECTIVES The aim was to study the impact of the defect size of endodontically treated incisors compared to dental implants as abutments on the survival of zirconia two-unit anterior cantilever-fixed partial dentures (2U-FPDs) during 10-year simulation. MATERIALS AND METHODS Human maxillary central incisors were endodontically treated and divided into three groups (n = 24): I, access cavities rebuilt with composite core; II, teeth decoronated and restored with composite; and III as II supported by fiber posts. In group IV, implants with individual zirconia abutments were used. Specimens were restored with zirconia 2U-FPDs and exposed to two sequences of thermal cycling and mechanical loading. Statistics: Kaplan-Meier; log-rank tests. RESULTS During TCML in group I two tooth fractures and two debondings with chipping were found. Solely chippings occurred in groups II (2×), IV (2×), and III (1×). No significant different survival was found for the different abutments (p = 0.085) or FPDs (p = 0.526). Load capability differed significantly between groups I (176 N) and III (670 N), and III and IV (324 N) (p < 0.024). CONCLUSION Within the limitations of an in vitro study, it can be concluded that zirconia-framework 2U-FPDs on decoronated teeth with/without post showed comparable in vitro reliability as restorations on implants. The results indicated that restorations on teeth with only access cavity perform worse in survival and linear loading. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Even severe defects do not justify per se a replacement of this particular tooth by a dental implant from load capability point of view.

Cardiomyocyte PDGFR-beta signaling is an essential component of the mouse cardiac response to load-induced stress.

PDGFR is an important target for novel anticancer therapeutics because it is overexpressed in a wide variety of malignancies. Recently, however, several anticancer drugs that inhibit PDGFR signaling have been associated with clinical heart failure. Understanding this effect of PDGFR inhibitors has been difficult because the role of PDGFR signaling in the heart remains largely unexplored. As described herein, we have found that PDGFR-beta expression and activation increase dramatically in the hearts of mice exposed to load-induced cardiac stress. In mice in which Pdgfrb was knocked out in the heart in development or in adulthood, exposure to load-induced stress resulted in cardiac dysfunction and heart failure. Mechanistically, we showed that cardiomyocyte PDGFR-beta signaling plays a vital role in stress-induced cardiac angiogenesis. Specifically, we demonstrated that cardiomyocyte PDGFR-beta was an essential upstream regulator of the stress-induced paracrine angiogenic capacity (the angiogenic potential) of cardiomyocytes. These results demonstrate that cardiomyocyte PDGFR-beta is a regulator of the compensatory cardiac response to pressure overload-induced stress. Furthermore, our findings may provide insights into the mechanism of cardiotoxicity due to anticancer PDGFR inhibitors.

Loads and loads and loads: the influence of prospective load, retrospective load, and ongoing task load in prospective memory

In prospective memory tasks different kinds of load can occur. Adding a prospective memory task can impose a load on ongoing task performance. Adding ongoing task load (OTL) can affect prospective memory performance. The existence of multiple target events increases prospective load (PL) and adding complexity to the to-be-remembered action increases retrospective load (RL). In two experiments, we systematically examined the effects of these different types of load on prospective memory performance. Results showed an effect of PL on costs in the ongoing task for categorical targets (Experiment 2), but not for specific targets (Experiment 1). RL and OTL both affected remembering the retrospective component of the prospective memory task. We suggest that PL can enhance costs in the ongoing task due to additional monitoring requirements. RL and OTL seem to impact the division of resources between the ongoing task and retrieval of the retrospective component, which may affect disengagement from the ongoing task. In general, the results demonstrate that the different types of load affect prospective memory differentially.

Risk charts to guide targeted HIV-1 viral load monitoring of ART: development and validation in patients from resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Nationwide impact and vehicle to grid application of electric vehicles mobility using an activity based model

This paper describes the impact of electric mobility on the transmission grid in Flanders region (Belgium), using a micro-simulation activity based models. These models are used to provide temporal and spatial estimation of energy and power demanded by electric vehicles (EVs) in different mobility zones. The increment in the load demand due to electric mobility is added to the background load demand in these mobility areas and the effects over the transmission substations are analyzed. From this information, the total storage capacity per zone is evaluated and some strategies for EV aggregator are proposed, allowing the aggregator to fulfill bids on the electricity markets.