A world full of surprises:Bayesian theory of surprise to quantify degrees of uncertainty

In the specific area of software engineering (SE) for self-adaptive systems (SASs) there is a growing research awareness about the synergy between SE and artificial intelligence (AI). However, just few significant results have been published so far. In this paper, we propose a novel and formal Bayesian definition of surprise as the basis for quantitative analysis to measure degrees of uncertainty and deviations of self-adaptive systems from normal behavior. A surprise measures how observed data affects the models or assumptions of the world during runtime. The key idea is that a "surprising" event can be defined as one that causes a large divergence between the belief distributions prior to and posterior to the event occurring. In such a case the system may decide either to adapt accordingly or to flag that an abnormal situation is happening. In this paper, we discuss possible applications of Bayesian theory of surprise for the case of self-adaptive systems using Bayesian dynamic decision networks. Copyright © 2014 ACM.

On an ODE Relevant for the General Theory of the Hyperbolic Cauchy Problem

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 34E20, 35L80, 35L15.

Grounded theory, a kvalitatív kutatás klasszikus mérföldköve (Grounded theory, the classic milestone of qualitative research)

A grounded theory olyan kutatási módszer, ahol az elmélet az empirikus adatokból fejlődik ki és abban gyökerezik (Glaser - Strauss, 1967). Annak ellenére, hogy a módszer nemzetközileg rendkívül népszerű, a grounded theory nem igazán vert gyökeret a hazai menedzsment- és marketingkutatás talajában. A cikk célja a grounded theory kulcsfontosságú mozzanatainak bemutatása és a módszer népszerűsítése. / === / Grounded theory is a research method in which theory emerges from the data and is grounded in it (Glaser - Strauss, 1967). Despite the international popularity of the method, the grounded theory unfortunately hasn't taken roots in the Hungarian management and marketing research fields. The purpose of this article is to highlight some features and key points of the method and to popularize it among researchers.

A bizonyosságfüggvények elméletének alkalmazása a pénzügyi kimutatások ellenőrzésében (The application of the theory of belief functions in the audit of financial statements)

A könyvvizsgálati kockázat a téves auditjelentés kiadásának kockázata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszámoló lényeges hibás állítást tartalmaz. Ez a kockázat indirekt módon a hitelintézetek és pénzügyi vállalkozások működésében is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lényeges hibás állítást a finanszírozott vállalkozás auditált beszámolója tartalmazza, amelynek az alapján finanszírozási döntést hoznak, vagy a finanszírozás folytatásáról a beszámolóban szereplő, hibás információkból számított hitelkovenánsok alapján döntenek. A könyvvizsgálat kockázatában a vizsgált gazdálkodó üzleti kockázatai tükröződnek vissza, ezért a kockázat felmérése és az ellenőrzés ennek alapján való megtervezése, majd végrehajtása kulcsfontosságú. Jelen tanulmány – kapcsolódva a Hitelintézeti Szemle 2011. évi 4. számához – szintén a kockázat és bizonytalanság témakörét tárgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetületét: a bizonyosságfüggvények (belief functions) alkalmazását a könyvvizsgálatban; mindezt a teljesség és a tankönyvszerű rendszerfelépítés igénye nélkül. A módszer ugyanis hazánkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetközi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatásban is rámutattak már az alkalmazás lehetséges előnyeire a hagyományos valószínűségelméleten alapuló számszerű kockázatbecslésekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyosságfüggvények jobban reprezentálják a könyvvizsgálóknak a kockázatról alkotott képét, mint a valószínűségek, mert – szemben a hagyományos modellel – nem két, hanem három állapotot kezelnek: a pozitív bizonyíték létezését, a negatív bizonyíték létezését és a bizonyíték hiányának esetét. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entity’s statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study – connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintézeti Szemle – also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors’ perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.

Studying Key Amino Acids in the Function of Ras Interference 1 (Rinl) SH2 and Vps9 Domains

Receptor mediated endocytosis effectively removes the "ears" with which a cell would "hear" a signal conveyed by extracellular signaling molecules, but does not necessarily block the signaling pathway in which the endocytosed receptor participates. In the process of signal attenuation, this newly formed vesicle is fused with a phagosome and the receptor molecules are degraded. Receptor mediated endocytosis as a way to attenuate epidermal growth factor (EGF) and insulin signaling will be the focus here. Ras Interference 1 (Rin 1) is a multifunctional protein involved in intracellular membrane trafficking and receptor mediated endocytosis through its Rab5 Guanine Exchange Factor and SH2 domains. The goal of this investigation is to determine the role of key amino acids involved in the interaction of Rinl with Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor and Rab5. To elucidate this role, a number of point mutations have been created and the effects of each mutation on Rin 1 function will be investigated. Key amino acids in the SH2 and Vps9 Domain were identified and effects of mutations on rate of endocytosis were observed.

The Theory of Planned Behavior and Ethnically Diverse Community College Students and Their Intentions to Exercise: A Preliminary Analysis

Although regular exercise is the key to a healthy lifestyle, college students are insufficiently active to maintain good health. Motivations to exercise may vary among different ethnic groups. The results of a pilot study using the Theory of Planned Behavior (Gordon, 2008) showed that ethnically diverse college students can rate their beliefs (behavioral, social, and cognitive) pertaining to physical activity.

Toy model to describe the effect of positional blocklike disorder in metamaterials composites

We study theoretically the effect of a new type of blocklike positional disorder on the effective electromagnetic properties of one-dimensional chains of resonant, high-permittivity dielectric particles, where particles are arranged into perfectly well-ordered blocks whose relative position is a random variable. This creates a finite order correlation length that mimics the situation encountered in metamaterials fabricated through self-assembled techniques, whose structures often display short-range order between near neighbors but long-range disorder, due to stacking defects. Using a spectral theory approach combined with a principal component statistical analysis, we study, in the long-wavelength regime, the evolution of the electromagnetic response when the composite filling fraction and the block size are changed. Modifications in key features of the resonant response (amplitude, width, etc.) are investigated, showing a regime transition for a filling fraction around 50%.

Frontline employees’ innovative service behavior as key to customer loyalty:insights into FLEs’ resource gain spiral

Many service firms require frontline service employees (FLEs) to follow routines and standardized operating procedures during the service encounter, to deliver consistently high service standards. However, to create superior, pleasurable experiences for customers, featuring both helpful services and novel approaches to meeting their needs, firms in various sectors also have begun to encourage FLEs to engage in more innovative service behaviors. This study therefore investigates a new and complementary route to customer loyalty, beyond the conventional service-profit chain, that moves through FLEs' innovative service behavior. Drawing on conservation of resources (COR) theory, this study introduces a resource gain spiral at the service encounter, which runs from FLEs' emotional job engagement to innovative service behavior, and then leads to customer delight and finally customer loyalty. In accordance with COR theory, the proposed model also includes factors that might hinder (customer aggression, underemployment) or foster (colleague support, supervisor support) FLEs' resource gain spiral. A multilevel analysis of a large-scale, dyadic data set that contains responses from both FLEs and customers in multiple industries strongly supports the proposed resource gain spiral as a complementary route to customer loyalty. The positive emotional job engagement-innovative service behavior relationship is undermined by customer aggression and underemployment, as hypothesized. Surprisingly though, and contrary to the hypotheses, colleague and supervisor support do not seem to foster FLEs' resource gain spiral. Instead, colleague support weakens the engagement-innovative service behavior relationship, and supervisor support does not affect it. These results indicate that if FLEs can solicit resources from other sources, they may not need to invest as many of their individual resources. In particular, colleague support even appears to serve as a substitute for FLEs' individual resource investments in the resource gain spiral.

Charge compensation and Ce3+ formation in trivalent doping of the CeO2(110) surface: The key role of dopant ionic radius

In this paper, we use density functional theory corrected for on-site Coulomb interactions (DFT + U) and hybrid DFT (HSE06 functional) to study the defects formed when the ceria (110) surface is doped with a series of trivalent dopants, namely, Al3+, Sc3+, Y3+, and In 3+. Using the hybrid DFT HSE06 exchange-correlation functional as a benchmark, we show that doping the (110) surface with a single trivalent ion leads to formation of a localized MCe / + O O • (M = the 3+ dopant), O- hole state, confirming the description found with DFT + U. We use DFT + U to investigate the energetics of dopant compensation through formation of the 2MCe ′ +VO ̈ defect, that is, compensation of two dopants with an oxygen vacancy. In conjunction with earlier work on La-doped CeO2, we find that the stability of the compensating anion vacancy depends on the dopant ionic radius. For Al3+, which has the smallest ionic radius, and Sc3+ and In3+, with intermediate ionic radii, formation of a compensating oxygen vacancy is stable. On the other hand, the Y3+ dopant, with an ionic radius close to that of Ce4+, shows a positive anion vacancy formation energy, as does La3+, which is larger than Ce4+ (J. Phys.: Condens. Matter 2010, 20, 135004). When considering the resulting electronic structure, in Al3+ doping, oxygen hole compensation is found. However, Sc 3+, In3+, and Y3+ show the formation of a reduced Ce3+ cation and an uncompensated oxygen hole, similar to La3+. These results suggest that the ionic radius of trivalent dopants strongly influences the final defect formed when doping ceria with 3+ cations. In light of these findings, experimental investigations of these systems will be welcome.

The Market for Apples: A Theory of Identity and Consumption

This paper presents an economic model of the effects of identity and social norms on consumption patterns. By incorporating qualitative studies in psychology and sociology, I propose a utility function that features two components – economic (functional) and identity elements. This setup is extended to analyze a market comprising a continuum of consumers, whose identity distribution along a spectrum of binary identities is described by a Beta distribution. I also introduce the notion of salience in the context of identity and consumption decisions. The key result of the model suggests that fundamental economic parameters, such as price elasticity and market demand, can be altered by identity elements. In addition, it predicts that firms in perfectly competitive markets may associate their products with certain types of identities, in order to reduce product substitutability and attain price-setting power.

I Can't Believe It's Not Bakhtin!: Literary Theory, Postmodern Advertising and the Gender Agenda

Taking the literary theories of Mikhail Bakhtin as a starting point, the authors offer three gendered readings of a postmodern advertisement for Moët & Chandon champagne. They commence with a discussion of the influence of gender on textual interpretation; continue with an outline of Bakhtin's key concepts, with particular reference to gender; present three contrasting readings of Moët's postmodern advertisement; and conclude with a discussion of their interpretations together with some reflexive reflections on the gender agenda. Though not claiming to offer a comprehensive introduction to Bakhtin, they do try to exemplify, in a quasi-carnivalesque mode of exposition, something of the character of that supremely gifted thinker and to demonstrate the insights his concepts provide in relation to gendered readings of advertising texts.

Tourism in Albarracín and Region. Local Public Action and dynamics in recent key sustainable tourism development

Spanish tourist destinations in rural areas have been established over more than two decades of implementation of various public policy instruments (mainly tourism and rural development policies). These convey complementary objectives in theory but provoke distant results in practice. The intervention of these instruments produces in the region of Sierra de Albarracín (Teruel) two types of destination whose sustainability is committed: the historical urban site of Albarracín as a consolidated cultural tourism destination based on heritage and the Sierra as a generic and incipient destination of rural tourism. It is discussed how the deployment of the local public action causes a fragmented territory in two models of management and tourism development. Cooperation is presented as a key element for the necessary rethinking of tourism development in the region.

Analysis of the fast electron scaling theory for the heating of a solid target

Simple scaling laws for laser-generated fast electron heating of solids that employ a Spitzer-like resistivity are unlikely to be universally adequate as this model does not produce an adequate description of a material's behaviour at low temperatures. This is demonstrated in this paper by using both numerical simulations and by comparing existing analytical scaling laws for low temperature resistivity. Generally, we find that, in the low temperature regime, the scaling for the heating of the background material has a much stronger dependence on the key empirical parameters (laser intensity, pulse duration, etc.).

Social Theory and Nursing

Despite noteworthy exceptions, nursing’s literature largely disregards the ways in which social and sociological theory permeates, guides and shapes research, education, and practice. Likewise, social theory’s ability to position nursing within wider structures of healthcare and educational provision is similarly and puzzlingly downplayed. The questions nurses ask and the problems they face cannot however, adequately be addressed without engaging with social and sociological theory and, to progress this engagement, contributors to this book explore how social theories are used by and might apply to nursing and nursing practice. This work brings together leading international nursing and non-nursing scholars to stimulate thought and debate around a fascinating and enduring topic.