The responsibility of futurists in strategic foresight - Hungarian examples

The Futures Studies Department at the Corvinus University of Budapest conducted a few strategic foresight projects at the beginning of the twenty-first century. The goals of two projects were to increase the regional competitiveness of two towns in Hungary; whereas, two other projects dealt with the long-term, 15- to 20- year-long, macro-development opportunities of Hungary. They focused on defining social trends that influence the long-termdecision-making environment of the regions and the country. The two types of experience made it possible to enhance strategic foresight by defining the role and responsibility of professional futurists and average, everyday people.

Investigating the effect of geographical distances and cultural proximity on the Hungarian wine trade

Wine is a very special product from an economic, cultural, and sociological point of view. Wine culture and wine trade play an important role in Hungary. The effect of cultural and geographical proximity on international trade has already been proven in the international trade literature. The size of bilateral trade flows between any two countries can be approximated by the gravity theory of trade. The gravity model provides empirical evidence of the relationship between the size of the economies, the distances between them, and their trade. This paper seeks to analyse the effect of cultural and geographical proximity on Hungary���s bilateral wine trade between 2000 and 2012, employing the gravity equation. The analysis is based on data from the World Bank WITS, WDI, as well as CEPII, and WTO databases. I apply OLS, Random Effects, Poisson, Pseudo-Poisson-Maximum-Likelihood and Heckman two stage estimators to calculate the gravity regression. The results show that in the case of Hungary, cultural similarity and trade liberalisation have a positive impact, while geographical distance, landlockedness, and contiguity have a negative impact on Hungarian wine exports.

An analysis of the labor market situation of vocational students based on national and international data

The article focuses on the labour market situation and opportunities of the Hungarian vocational students. After briefly placing the topic in an international context, the study introduces the findings of the Hungarian empirical researches. Due to the differences between the various national education systems, it is not easy to make international comparisons; therefore I chose former socialist countries with characteristics similar to those of Hungary. When comparing the relevant data, it became clear that obtaining a diploma provides more advantages in Hungary. Hungarian researches suggest that vocational schools mostly attract students with poor competence test scores at the end of primary school. Also a significant proportion of these students are disadvantaged. Vocational students are the most likely to drop out of the system and their return to the school later is sporadic at best. Although a completed VET improves their employment conditions and prospects, many of the graduates will leave their profession or do unskilled labour. Their labour income varies greatly depending on their type of trade and experience gained.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Zoroastrianism, Cosmology, and Chaos: A Detailed Analysis of the Musical Composition, Druj Aeterni

Druj Aeterni is a large chamber ensemble piece for flute, clarinet, French horn, two trumpets, piano, two percussionists, string quintet, and electric bass. My composition integrates three intellectual pursuits and interests, ancient mythology, cosmology, and mathematics. The title of the piece uses Latin and the language of the Avesta, the holy book of Zoroastrianism, and comments upon a philosophical perspective based in string theory. I abstract the cosmological implications of string theory, apply them to the terminology and theology of Zoroastrianism, and then structure the composition in consideration of a possible reconciliation. The analysis that follows incorporates analytical techniques similar to David Cope’s style of Vectoral Analysis.

Millwork

An exhibition of drawing and sculpture that extends the artist's process of self-portraiture, applying the historical form of the portrait roundel to the crown of the head as an exclusive subject matter.

Global trends in prescribing contact lenses for extended wear

Extended wear has long been the ‘holy grail’ of contact lenses by virtue of the increased convenience and freedom of lifestyle which they accord; however, this modality enjoyed only limited market success during the last quarter of the 20th century. The introduction of silicone hydrogel materials into the market at the beginning of this century heralded the promise of successful extended wear due to the superior oxygen performance of this lens type. To assess patterns of contact lens fitting, including extended wear, over the past decade, up to 1000 survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA each year between 2000 and 2009. Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the survey form. Analysis of returned forms revealed that, averaged over this period, 9% of all soft lenses prescribed were for extended wear, with national figures ranging from 2% in Japan to 17% in Norway. The trend over the past decade has been for an increase from about 5% of all soft lens fits in 2000 to a peak of between 9 and 12% between 2002 and 2007, followed by a decline to around 7% in 2009. A person receiving extended wear lenses is likely to be an older female who is being refitted with silicone hydrogel lenses for full-time wear. Although extended wear has yet again failed to fulfil the promise of being the dominant contact lens wearing modality, it is still a viable option for many people.

Oxygen; my view

Oxygen has been the “holy grail” of contact lens wear for over 100 years, but it is just one piece of a complex jigsaw puzzle. Clearly, high oxygen transmissibility (Dk/t) silicone hydrogel lenses meet the oxygen needs of the cornea. The Dk/t of these lenses is over 75 Dk units, which is far above that of the “best” hydrogel lenses (30 Dk units). Clinical trials have failed to reveal any hypoxic problemswith silicone hydrogel lenses. Thus, conditions such as epithelial microcysts, limbal redness, hypoxic staining, stromal neovascularisation, oedema and endothelial polymegethism do not occur with these lenses. My view is that – looking at the “big picture” – we are far better off now that we have silicone hydrogel lenses.

Achieving enterprise integration through software customization : part I-evidence from the field

Achieving business and IT integration is strategic goal for many organisations – it has almost become the ‘Holy Grail’ of organisational success. In this environment Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) packages have become the defacto option for addressing this issue. Integration has come to mean adopting ERP, through configuration and without customization, but this all or nothing approach has proved difficult for many organisations. In part 1 of a 2 part update we provide evidence from the field that suggests that whilst costly, if managed appropriately, customization can have value in aiding organisational integration efforts. In part 2, we discuss in more detail the benefits and pitfalls involved in enacting a non-standard based integration strategy.

The sequence: Inside the race for the human genome

The human genome project was a grand scientific enterprise which attracted both hyperbole and ridicule alike. The project was lauded as “the moon shot of the life sciences”, the “holy grail of man”, “the code of codes”, and “the book of life”. Such rhetoric has also received scorn. President George Bush senior managed to deflate the pretensions of the project with the accidental slip that it was the “human gnome initiative”. In The Sequence, Kevin Davies seeks to go beyond such metaphors, and provide a candid and honest account of the race of the human genome project. The author is indebted to the authoritative book The Gene Wars, which considered the early struggles over the human genome project. Robert Cook-Deegan observes that there was initially much debate over whether there should be a Human Genome Project at all: The debate became one of “big” science versus “small” science. The reliance on systematic technology development and goal-directed gene-mapping efforts presaged a new style for biology, one that elicited excitement from those attracted to whiz-bang technologies but drew gasps of revulsion from those who aspired to cultivate biology on a more modest scale and with decentralized organisation. The battle was, among other things, over whose vision would control the budget and which scientific aesthetic would prevail.

Genome-wide association studies and musculoskeletal diseases

Bone and joint diseases are major causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and their prevalence is increasing as the average population age increases. Most common musculoskeletal diseases show significant heritability, and few have treatments that prevent disease or can induce true treatment-free, disease-free remission. Furthermore, despite valiant efforts of hypothesis-driven research, our understanding of the etiopathogenesis of these conditions is, with few exceptions, at best moderate. Therefore, there has been a long-standing interest in genetics research in musculoskeletal disease as a hypothesis-free method for investigating disease etiopathogenesis. Important contributions have been made through the identification of monogenic causes of disease, but the holy grail of human genetics research has been the identification of the genes responsible for common diseases. The development of genome-wide association (GWA) studies has revolutionized this field, and led to an explosion in the number of genes identified that are definitely involved in musculoskeletal disease pathogenesis. However, this approach will not identify all common disease genes, and although the current progress is exciting and proves the potential of this research discipline, other approaches will be required to identify many of the types of genetic variation likely to be involved.

Lumometsän syli : Anni Swanin satusymbolismi 1896-1923

Lumometsän syli, Anni Swanin satusymbolismi 1896-1923 on suomenkielisen satukirjallisuuden poetiikkaa ja 1900-luvun alun modernia naiseutta selvittävä feministiseen tutkimustraditioon liittyvä tutkimus. Sen kohteena ovat lasten- ja nuortenkirjailija Anni Swanin (1875-1958) satukokoelmat vuosilta 1901-1923 ja Uusi Suometar -lehden sadunomaiset novellit vuosilta 1896-1904. Tutkimus tuo uutta tietoa lastenkirjallisuuden osalta 1900-luvun alun modernin ihmisen problematiikasta. Se sisältää naissubjektin kehityskaaren ja sisäisen kasvun kohti naistaiteilijuutta. Yksityiskohtaisen tarkastelun kohteina ovat sadut Veli ja sisar (1917), Ihmekukka (1905), Marjaanan helmikruunu (1912), Aaltojen salaisuus (1901), Jääkukka (1905), Tyttö ja kuolema (1917), Merenkuningatar ja hänen poikansa (1905), Lumolinna (1905) ja Tarina Kultasirkasta (1901). Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan Swanin satujen poeettista kieltä ja naiseuden tematiikkaa ranskalaisen postmodernin ajan feministisen viitekehyksen valossa. Siinä keskeisiä ovat Julia Kristevan psykoanalyyttispohjaiset näkemykset ja Hélène Cixous´n sekä Luce Irigarayn ajatukset feminiinisestä kirjoituksesta. Sadut kontekstualisoidaan ajankohdan symbolistiseen taidevirtaukseen ja Suomen taiteen kultakauteen. Satuja tulkitaan naiskirjailijan lajina ja erityisenä naisen metaforisen ilmaisun muotona. Satujen feministinen lukutapa purkaa perinteisiä lukemiskonventioita ja merkitsee satutekstin lukemista "toisin". Se avaa varhaista modernia naiseutta ja sille ominaista naisen ilmaisukielen erityisyyttä sekä mykkää ei-kielellistä, melankolian ilmaisua. Tutkimus tuo esiin uudenlaisen naiskirjailijan aistimusvoimaisen kielen. Swanin satusymbolismi on luonnon kauneuden synesteettista ja aistimusvoimaista kerrontaa, jolle on luonteenomaista aistiestetiikka, metaforisuus, metonymisyys ja metamorfoosit. Swan vahvistaa osaltaan naisen sankaruutta, omaa ilmaisukieltä ja ääntä. Tuloksena paljastuu satuperinteeseen verrattuna uudenlaisia tyttöyden, äitiyden, naistaiteilijuuden ja perheen malleja ja niiden representaatioita. Satumallit osoittautuvat aikanaan moderneiksi tyttösankareiksi, osin ambivalenteiksi uudenlaista naiseutta ja suhteessa oloa heijastaviksi ja ovat siten varhaisia feministisen sadun tunnusmerkkejä. Tutkimus selvittää, miten Swan rakentaa omaperäisen satusymboliikan. Satumetsä on luonnonkauniin suomalaismetsän symbolinen mielenmaisema ja samanaikaisesti sadun myyttis-symbolinen topos. Swanin luontokäsitys sisältää luonnonsuojelun ja varhaisen ekokriittisen näkemyksen. Tutkimus osoittaa Swanin satujen kytkeytyvän 1900-luvun alun modernismiin ja Suomen taiteen kultakauteen. Swan on suomenkielisen symbolistisen taidesadun kehittäjä ja feministisen sadun aloittaja.

Family in war - a personal chronicle : [1938-1943].

The book contains an introduction by Paul Weisz and a collection of family letters written during World War II. The letters were written between February 1938 and September 1945. Some were translated into English and complemented by commentary by the editor, Paul Weisz. Paul Weisz' introduction is 10 pages long and serves as a short memoir by itself. He provides a family chronicle, the living circumstances of his family, and his childhood in Vienna. He ends in 1938 when the family was eager to leave Austria. The following years are covered by the various letters he brought together in this book. The authors are cousin Willie, then already in Palestine, his father Samuel, his mother Stephanie, and his sister Ruth. His father and mother fled to Belgium, but were arrested after the beginning of World War II. They were deported to internment camps in France (St. Cyprien). His sister Ruth tried to escape from Austria to Palestine via the Danube. She got stuck in Yugoslavia, and was interned in Sabac internment camp. Paul's mother died in France in 1942, his father was sent to a concentration camp in Poland and murdered. His sister Ruth was murdered in Yugoslavia. Paul was released in Canada, and was enabled to go to college. He later named his children after his family members who did not survive the Nazi terror: Stephanie, Ruth, and Samuel.

A People Re-United with its Land Coin

Obverse: 50 Lirot silver coin. Reverse: Stylized tree, its lower branches creating letters. Inscription in the crown of tree.

A People Re-united with its Land Coin

Obverse: 50 Lirot silver coin. Reverse: Stylized tree, its lower branches creating letters, inscription in the crown of tree.