An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Jamaica

Climate change is a continuous process that began centuries ago. Today the pace of change has increased with greater rapidity because of global warming induced by anthropogenically generated greenhouse gases (GHG). Failure to effectively deal with the adverse outcomes can easily disrupt plans for sustainable economic development. Because of the failure of export agriculture over the last several decades, to provide the economic stimuli needed to promote economic growth and development, Jamaica, like many other island states in the Caribbean subregion, has come to rely on tourism as an instrument of transformation of the macro-economy. It is believed this shift in economic imperative would eventually provide the economic impetus needed to generate much needed growth and development. This assessment has shown that tourism is not only a leading earner of foreign exchange in Jamaica and a major creator of both direct and indirect jobs but, also, one of the principal contributors to the country‟s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The rapid expansion of the industry which occurred over the last several decades coupled with disregard for sound environmental practices has led to the destruction of coral reefs and the silting of wetlands. Because most of the industry is located along the coastal region it is extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Failure to address the predictable environmental challenges of climate change, with some degree of immediacy, will not only undermine, but quickly and seriously impair the capacity of industry to stimulate and contribute to the process of economic development. To this end, it important that further development of industry be characterised by sound economic and social planning and proper environmental practices.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

Stylized features of the investment-growth connection in Latin America, 1980-2012

Estimates of investment and its components in Latin America over the past 30 years are used to review stylized facts relating to investment and explore factors that explain its connection with economic growth. In particular, the low level of investment, the reduction in public spending in the 1980s and its partial recovery along with private investment between 2003 and 2010 are explored. It is found that the increase in national income —on the back of rising terms of trade— made it possible to increase national saving and its contribution to financing investment between 2004 and 2008. The analysis of causality between the investment ratio and growth in gross domestic product (gdp) suggest that —for a considerable number of Latin American countries— changes in the growth rate have preceded changes in the investment ration in the period under study.

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2015. The regional trade crisis: assessment and outlook.

With external conditions sluggish and highly uncertain as the global economy still struggles to shake off the effects of the economic crisis of 2008-2009, the Latin American and Caribbean region is not isolated from these effects and is projected to record a small drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, followed by a weak recovery in 2016. Against this backdrop, 2015 will be the third consecutive year of increasing declines in regional export values; a state of affairs not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This poor performance reflects the end of the commodity price boom, the slowdown of the Chinese economy, the weak recovery of the eurozone and the lacklustre economic activity in the region, particularly in South America.

The People’s Republic of China and Latin America: the impact of Chinese economic growth on Latin American exports

The role of the People’s Republic of China in the world economy has grown substantially in recent decades, turning it into a strategic foreign trading partner for much of Latin America. Bilateral trade between the region and China totalled US$ 120 billion in 2009. This study analyses the income elasticity of the region’s exports to the country. The findings show that, assuming real gross domestic product (gdp) growth in China of about 7% a year, the value of Latin American exports to China (at 2005 prices) can be expected to increase by an average of about 10% a year between 2014 and 2019. In a more conservative scenario of 4.5% average annual growth in the Chinese economy over the period, exports would rise by about 7% a year.

Avaliação da qualidade dos serviços hospitalares com a adaptação do modelo SERVQUAL em dois hospitais de Bauru - SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Neoliberalismo e corrupção: análise comparativa dos ajustes neoliberais no Brasil de Fernando Collor (1990-1992) e no México de Carlos Salinas (1988-1992) o incremento da corrupção e seus custos sociais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Emergy diagnosis and reflections towards Brazilian sustainable development

This paper presents an environmental emergy-based diagnosis of Brazil compared with Russia, India, China, South Africa and United States. Reflections on the Brazilian sustainable development are presented and discussed based on the evaluations published since 1979. The variation of the emergy per capita for Brazil from 1979 to 2007 indicates that the country's growth is tied to the exploitation of non renewable natural resources which do not directly reflect in the welfare of the population. The total emergy exported per unit of gross domestic product increased in the period, suggesting that the country exports more emergy than that contained in the money received for the exportation. With the help of the emergy indices, the future development of Brazil is explored and discussed. The comparison among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries and United States indicates that what may be appropriate and usable within one country may not be within another and that to achieve the global sustainability two concomitant actions may occur: (i) the reduction of the total emergy use in developed economies, and (ii) the reduction of indigenous resources exportation in developing economies. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classificação de tábuas de madeira usando processamento de imagens digitais e aprendizado de máquina

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Políticas de apoio a gestão da arborização urbana: uma análise do programa município verde azul

Pós-graduação em Agronomia - FEIS

Estudo de caso: aplicação do método DMAIC-White Belt- na redução de latas amassadas em uma produção de leite em pó

This work consists of the implementation of the steps Define, Measure , Analyze , Improve and Control ( DMAIC ) to develop a Six Sigma project in an industry the food industry. The objective was to demonstrate a potential for reducing the occurrence of crushed cans in potting milk powder industry in a White Belt project. The food industry accounts for about 9 % of Brazil's gross domestic product ( GDP ), generating thousands of jobs . Among the major sectors of the food industry is the manufacturing sector of milk , occupies approximately 10 % of the total turnover of the food industry . Brazil is considered today one of the eight largest producers of milk powder in the world. The milk powder is packed , mostly for aluminum cans that are lined internally with varnishes and other materials to protect the milk of metals from aluminum. When the cans are dented food protection is compromised and may lead ingestion causing dis-eases such as botulism. Aiming to solve the problem of dented cans methodology was used as a case study with a quantitative approach through the DMAIC method. Some quality tools used in each step of the project as brainstorming , cause and effect diagram , flowchart , ef-fort and impact matrix, 5W1H , among other Pareto diagram is presented . A survey about the disposal of cans in the company verifying a mean loss and, from this histor-ical , a goal loss was calculated was performed . With the target set we calculated the annual saving design . During application of DMAIC was found that the highest rate of loss occurred in transportation between the factory and the factory that fills cans milk . Several actions were taken to resolve problems that resulted in dented cans and the first two months of phase control it was found that the smaller losses calculated target resulting in a saving for the company. The short time of implementa-tion of the Improve phase did not allow a more detailed a ...

Análise da influência da iluminação de rodovias federais com a redução do número de acidentes

The increasing rate of traffic accidents, followed by the high rate of mortality due to these occurrences, favored to the classification of traffic accidents as a public health problem in Brazil. These accidents consume a significant portion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), especially related to the victims. Considering this scenery with many tragedies and resources being spent only in the end, this paper seeks to examine the influence of federal highways lighting by reducing the number of accidents. Federal Highways sections that received lighting were taken up for study, therefore a survey of statistical data has been raised considering the accidents before and after the route had been illuminated. Taking advantage of the results obtained, an economic analysis has been made considering the amounts consumed by traffic accidents versus the values required for the installation of lighting on highways

Prevalence of the hepatitis C virus among university employees in São Paulo, southeastern Brazil: predictive factors and geoprocessing spatial analysis

Background There are limited studies on the prevalence and risk factors associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Objective Identify the prevalence and risk factors for HCV infection in university employees of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods Digital serological tests for anti-HCV have been performed in 3153 volunteers. For the application of digital testing was necessary to withdraw a drop of blood through a needlestick. The positive cases were performed for genotyping and RNA. Chi-square and Fisher’s exact test were used, with P-value <0.05 indicating statistical significance. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were also used. Results Prevalence of anti-HCV was 0.7%. The risk factors associated with HCV infection were: age >40 years, blood transfusion, injectable drugs, inhalable drugs (InDU), injectable Gluconergam®, glass syringes, tattoos, hemodialysis and sexual promiscuity. Age (P=0.01, OR 5.6, CI 1.4 to 22.8), InDU (P<0.0001, OR=96.8, CI 24.1 to 388.2), Gluconergam® (P=0.0009, OR=44.4, CI 4.7 to 412.7) and hemodialysis (P=0.0004, OR=90.1, CI 7.5 – 407.1) were independent predictors. Spatial analysis of the prevalence with socioeconomic indices, Gross Domestic Product and Human Development Index by the geoprocessing technique showed no positive correlation. Conclusions The prevalence of HCV infection was 0.7%. The independent risk factors for HCV infection were age, InDU, Gluconergan® and hemodialysis. There was no spatial correlation of HCV prevalence with local economic factors.

Diretrizes para o uso da gestão de design a partir de um diagnóstico setorial das microrregiões de Araçatuba e Birigui do Estado de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A influência das variáveis do lixamento tubular na qualidade das peças de Eucalyptus grandis

In 2010, the Brazilian forest sector is represented by about 30,000 companies producing US$ 21 billion annually and account for approximately 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the country. The sanding process is highly demanded in various stages of industrialization of the wood, when there is a need for a better quality surface finishing. The objective of this work was to analyze the influence of cutting speed and sandpaper granulometry on both the surface finishing of pieces of Eucalyptus grandis processed through tubular sanding and on the sanding efforts (force and power of sanding). Four cutting speeds were used (19.5, 22.7, 26 and 28.1 m/s), one advance speed (16 m/min) and three sets of sandpaper (80-100, 80-120 and 100-120) being one for chipping and another for finishing, respectively. A central data acquisition system was set up to capture the variables (cutting power, acoustic emission and vibration) in real time. The cutting force was obtained indirectly, through a frequency inverter. The roughness of the parts was measured by a roughness meter before and after sanding. The highest cutting speed used (28.1 m/s) consumed more power and generated more acoustic emission among the four speeds tested. Regarding the vibration, the lower cutting speed (19.5 m/ s) generated the highest vibration in the sander machine. It is concluded that the range of 100-120 sandpapers resulted in values of average roughness (Ra) lower than the other sets of sandpaper used, as it resulted in better surface finishing.