A risk infection simulation model for fusarium head blight of wheat

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is a disease of great concern in wheat (Triticum aestivum). Due to its relatively narrow susceptible phase and environmental dependence, the pathosystem is suitable for modeling. In the present work, a mechanistic model for estimating an infection index of FHB was developed. The model is process-based driven by rates, rules and coefficients for estimating the dynamics of flowering, airborne inoculum density and infection frequency. The latter is a function of temperature during an infection event (IE), which is defined based on a combination of daily records of precipitation and mean relative humidity. The daily infection index is the product of the daily proportion of susceptible tissue available, infection frequency and spore cloud density. The model was evaluated with an independent dataset of epidemics recorded in experimental plots (five years and three planting dates) at Passo Fundo, Brazil. Four models that use different factors were tested, and results showed all were able to explain variation for disease incidence and severity. A model that uses a correction factor for extending host susceptibility and daily spore cloud density to account for post-flowering infections was the most accurate explaining 93% of the variation in disease severity and 69% of disease incidence according to regression analysis.

Etiology and epidemiology of Pythium root rot in hydroponic crops: current knowledge and perspectives

The etiology and epidemiology of Pythium root rot in hydroponically-grown crops are reviewed with emphasis on knowledge and concepts considered important for managing the disease in commercial greenhouses. Pythium root rot continually threatens the productivity of numerous kinds of crops in hydroponic systems around the world including cucumber, tomato, sweet pepper, spinach, lettuce, nasturtium, arugula, rose, and chrysanthemum. Principal causal agents include Pythium aphanidermatum, Pythium dissotocum, members of Pythium group F, and Pythium ultimum var. ultimum. Perspectives are given of sources of initial inoculum of Pythium spp. in hydroponic systems, of infection and colonization of roots by the pathogens, symptom development and inoculum production in host roots, and inoculum dispersal in nutrient solutions. Recent findings that a specific elicitor produced by P. aphanidermatum may trigger necrosis (browning) of the roots and the transition from biotrophic to necrotrophic infection are considered. Effects on root rot epidemics of host factors (disease susceptibility, phenological growth stage, root exudates and phenolic substances), the root environment (rooting media, concentrations of dissolved oxygen and phenolic substances in the nutrient solution, microbial communities and temperature) and human interferences (cropping practices and control measures) are reviewed. Recent findings on predisposition of roots to Pythium attack by environmental stress factors are highlighted. The commonly minor impact on epidemics of measures to disinfest nutrient solution as it recirculates outside the crop is contrasted with the impact of treatments that suppress Pythium in the roots and root zone of the crop. New discoveries that infection of roots by P. aphanidermatum markedly slows the increase in leaf area and whole-plant carbon gain without significant effect on the efficiency of photosynthesis per unit area of leaf are noted. The platform of knowledge and understanding of the etiology and epidemiology of root rot, and its effects on the physiology of the whole plant, are discussed in relation to new research directions and development of better practices to manage the disease in hydroponic crops. Focus is on methods and technologies for tracking Pythium and root rot, and on developing, integrating, and optimizing treatments to suppress the pathogen in the root zone and progress of root rot.

Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

Progress of Asian soybean rust and airborne urediniospores of Phakopsora pachyrhizi in southern Brazil

Asian soybean rust, caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, was reported at epidemic levels in 2003/2004 and is the main soybean disease in Brazil. The aim of this study was to investigate the spread of Asian soybean rust and to quantify airborne urediniospores in the region of Campo Mourão, Paraná State, Brazil. Three experiments were conducted under field conditions during the 2007/08 and 2008/09 crop seasons. Using the disease gradient method, provided by the application of increasing levels of the fungicide tebuconazole, four Asian soybean rust epidemics at different intensities were obtained in each experiment. To quantify the urediniospores, weathercock-type spore collectors were installed during and between the two crop seasons. Disease progress curves were plotted for each epidemic, and maximum severity was estimated. The curves were fit to the logistic model, which provided higher coefficients of determination and more randomly distributed residuals plotted over time. Analyses of the area under the disease progress curve showed that the largest epidemics occurred in the 2007/2008 crop season and that the progress rates were higher for severity, even among plants protected with the fungicide. The number of urediniospores collected in the air was related to the presence of soybean plants in the cultivated crops. The quantity of urediniospores was also positively correlated to the disease severity and incidence, as well as to cumulative rainfall and favorable days for P. Pachyrhizi infection.

Guava fruit loss caused by rust

The aim of this paper was to estimate the loss caused by rust (Puccinia psidii) to 'Paluma' guava production in orchards located in Rio de Janeiro State. The disease intensity on the reproductive organs of plants was observed during two chemical control experiments carried out in 2003 and 2004. The loss was estimated based on simple linear regression and the production reduction (fruit number and weight ha-1) on the incidence of diseased buds and fruits. In the first experiment, no relationship was established between incidence of diseased buds and loss since there was a delay in spraying and the incidence of buds showing rust was high (mean of 47%) at the beginning of flowering. In the second experiment (2003-2004), spraying occurred at the beginning of the epidemics and there was a linear relationship between incidence of diseased buds and loss, justifying fungicide intervention at this stage. For the fruiting stage, a significant relationship was found between incidence of diseased fruits and loss in both experiments. In the absence of chemical control, rust reduced fruit production by around 90%.

Utilization of Meat and bone meal for energy production

At the end of the 1990s the stock breeding in the Europe was suffering from the animal disease epidemics such as Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and foot –and mouth disease. The European Union (EU) tackled to this problem by tightening the legislation of animal by-products. At this point, rendering and fat producing industries faces new challenges, which they have to cope with in a way of trying to find alternatives to their products (animal fats and meat and bone meal). One of the most promising alternatives to utilize these products was to use them in energy production purposes. The purpose of the Thesis was to examine the utilization possibilities of Meat and bone meal (MBM) for energy production. The first part of the Thesis consists of theory part. The theory part includes evaluation of basic properties of MBM as a fertilizer and as a fuel, legislative evaluation and evaluation of different burning techniques. The second part of the Thesis consists of burning tests in Energy laboratory of LUT with different mixtures of peat and MBM. The purpose of the burning tests was to identify co-firing possibilities of peat and MBM and emission- and ash properties for peat and MBM.

HIV-1 subtypes among intravenous drug users from two neighboring cities in São Paulo State, Brazil

In order to assess the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in two neighboring cities located near the epicenter of the HIV-1 epidemics in Brazil (Santos and São Paulo), we investigated 83 HIV-1 strains obtained from samples collected in 1995 from intravenous drug users. The V3 through V5 region of the envelope of gp 120 was analyzed by heteroduplex mobility analysis. Of the 95 samples, 12 (12.6%) were PCR negative (6 samples from each group); low DNA concentration was the reason for non-amplification in half of these cases. Of the 42 typed cases from São Paulo, 34 (81%, 95% confidence limits 74.9 to 87.0%) were B and 8 (19%, 95% confidence limits 12.9 to 25.0%) were F, whereas of the 41 typed cases from Santos, 39 (95%, 95% confidence limits 91.6 to 98.4%) were B and 2 (5%, 95% confidence limits 1.6 to 8.4%) were C. We therefore confirm the relationship between clade F and intravenous drug use in São Paulo, and the presence of clade C in Santos. The fact that different genetic subtypes of HIV-1 are co-circulating indicates a need for continuous surveillance for these subtypes as well as for recombinant viruses in Brazil.

Genetic characterization of dengue virus type 3 isolates in the State of Rio de Janeiro, 2001

The genetic characterization of dengue virus type 3 (DEN-3) strains isolated from autochthonous cases in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2001 is presented. Restriction site-specific (RSS)-PCR performed on 22 strains classified the Brazilian DEN-3 viruses as subtype C, a subtype that contains viruses from Sri Lanka, India, Africa and recent isolates from Central America. Nucleic acid sequencing (positions 278 to 2550) of one DEN-3 strain confirmed the origin of these strains, since genotype III - classified by sequencing - and RSS-PCR subtype C are correlated. This genetic subtype has been associated with hemorrhagic dengue epidemics and the information provided here could be useful to implement appropriate prevention and control measures.

Use of molecular epidemiology to monitor the nosocomial dissemination of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a University Hospital from 1991 to 2001

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been the cause of major outbreaks and epidemics among hospitalized patients, with high mortality and morbidity rates. We studied the genomic diversity of MRSA strains isolated from patients with nosocomial infection in a University Hospital from 1991 to 2001. The study consisted of two periods: period I, from 1991 to 1993 and period II from 1995 to 2001. DNA was typed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and the similarity among the MRSA strains was determined by cluster analysis. During period I, 73 strains presented five distinctive DNA profiles: A, B, C, D, and E. Profile A was the most frequent DNA pattern and was identified in 55 (75.3%) strains; three closely related and four possibly related profiles were also identified. During period II, 80 (68.8%) of 117 strains showed the same endemic profile A identified during period I, 18 (13.7%) closely related profiles and 18 (13.7%) possibly related profiles and, only one strain presented an unrelated profile. Cluster analysis showed a 96% coefficient of similarity between profile A from period I and profile A from period II, which were considered to be from the same clone. The molecular monitoring of MRSA strains permitted the determination of the clonal dissemination and the maintenance of a dominant endemic strain during a 10-year period and the presence of closely and possibly related patterns for endemic profile A. However, further studies are necessary to improve the understanding of the dissemination of the endemic profile in this hospital.

Pertussis: infection, vaccination and gene polymorphisms

Pertussis or whooping cough is a human respiratory tract infection and a vaccine-preventable disease that is caused by Bordetella pertussis bacteria. Pertussis vaccination has been part of the Finnish national vaccine program since 1952. Despite extensive vaccinations, the incidence of pertussis has increased in many countries during the last decades. Large epidemics have been observed also in countries with high vaccine coverage. Inter-individual variation in immune responses is always encountered after vaccination. Low vaccine responses may cause vulnerability to pertussis even straight after vaccination. Reasons for low responses are not fully understood. The innate immune system is responsible for the initial recognition of pathogens and vaccine antigens. The role of innate immunity on pertussis immunity has not been thoroughly investigated. Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) and toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) are important molecules of the innate immune system and in the recognition of pathogens. Cytokines form a signaling network that have a notable role in immune responses after infections as well as after vaccinations. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is common in genes encoding these molecules and the polymorphisms have been reported to affect vaccine response after viral and bacterial vaccines. This study investigated the gene polymorphisms of MBL2, TLR4 and interleukin (IL)-10 promoter and their association with vaccine responses after acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination in Finnish adolescents and infants. Cell-mediated immune responses were investigated ten years after the previous pertussis vaccinations in young adults. In addition, the role of MBL deficiency in pertussis infection susceptibility was evaluated. The results of this study show that subjects with TLR4 polymorphism had lower antibody production and persistence after aP vaccination compared with normal allele. A specific SNP in the TLR4 gene was associated with decreased antibody responses and persistence in adolescents after aP booster vaccination. Cell-mediated immune responses were partly detected ten years after the previous vaccination; booster vaccine clearly enhanced the responses. In addition, subjects with IL-10 polymorphism had altered cell-mediated immune responses. MBL deficiency was found to be more frequent in pertussis patients than healthy controls but the polymorphism of MBL2 was not associated with antibody responses after acellular pertussis vaccination. The novel finding of this study was that genetic variation in the innate immune system seems to play a role in altered pertussis vaccine responses as well as in pertussis infection. These new findings enlighten the mechanisms behind the low responses after pertussis vaccination and help to predict risk factors related to this phenomenon.

Detection, Identification and Molecular Variation of Human Enteroviruses

Picornaviruses are the most common human viruses and the identification of the picornaviruses is nowadays based on molecular techniques, for example, reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). One aim of this thesis was to improve the identification of picornaviruses, especially rhino- and enteroviruses, with a real-time assay format and, also, to improve the differentiation of the viruses with genus-specific locked nucleic acid (LNA) probes. Another aim was to identify and study the causative agent of the enterovirus epidemics that appeared in Finland during seasons 2008-2010. In this thesis, the first version of picornavirus qRT-PCR with a melting curve analysis was used in a study of rhinovirus transmission within families with a rhinovirus positive index child where rhinovirus infection was monitored in all family members. In conclusion, rhinoviruses spread effectively within families causing mostly symptomatic infections in children and asymptomatic infections in adults. To improve the differentiation between rhino- and enterovirus the picornavirus qRT-PCR was modified with LNA-incorporated probes. The LNA probes were validated with picornavirus prototypes and different clinical specimen types. The LNA probe-based picornavirus qRT-PCR was able to differentiate all rhino- and enteroviruses correctly, which makes it suitable for diagnostic use. Moreover, in this thesis enterovirus outbreaks were studied with a well-observed method to create a strain-specific qRT-PCR from the typing region VP1 protein. In a hand-foot-and-mouth-disease (HFMD) outbreak in 2008, the causative agent was identified as CV-A6 and when the molecular evolution of the new HFMD CV-A6 strain was studied it was found that CV-A6 was the emerging agent for HFMD and onychomadesis. Furthermore, unusual E-30 meningitis epidemics that apeared during seasons 2009 and 2010 were studied with strain-specific qRT-PCR. The E-30 affected mostly adolescents and was probably spread in sports teams.

Aspects of spatial and habitat ecology of multiple Anopheles species (Diptera: Culicidae): malaria vectors in the highlands and foothills of Ecuador

The resurgence of malaria in highland regions of Africa, Oceania and recently in South America underlines the importance of the study of the ecology of highland mosquito vectors of malaria. Since the incidence of malaria is limited by the distribution of its vectors, the purpose of this PhD thesis was to examine aspects of the ecology of Anopheles mosquitoes in the Andes of Ecuador, South America. A historical literature and archival data review (Chapter 2) indicated that Anopheles pseudopunctipennis transmitted malaria in highland valleys of Ecuador prior to 1950, although it was eliminated through habitat removal and the use of chemical insecticides. Other anopheline species were previously limited to low-altitude regions, except in a few unconfirmed cases. A thorough larval collection effort (n=438 attempted collection sites) in all road-accessible parts of Ecuador except for the lowland Amazon basin was undertaken between 2008 - 2010 (Chapter 3). Larvae were identified morphologically and using molecular techniques (mitochondrial COl gene), and distribution maps indicated that all five species collected (Anopheles albimanus, An. pseudopunctipennis, Anopheles punctimacula, Anopheles oswaldoi s.l. and Anopheles eiseni) were more widespread throughout highland regions than previously recorded during the 1940s, with higher maximum altitudes for all except An. pseudopunctipennis (1541 m, 1930 m, 1906 m, 1233 m and 1873 m, respectively). During larval collections, to characterize species-specific larval habitat, a variety of abiotic and biotic habitat parameters were measured and compared between species-present and species-absent sites using chi-square tests and stepwise binary logistic regression analyses (Chapter 4). An. albimanus was significantly associated with permanent pools with sand substrates and An. pseudopunctipennis with gravel and boulder substrates. Both species were significantly associated with floating cyanobacterial mats and warmer temperatures, which may limit their presence in cooler highland regions. Anopheles punctimacula was collected more often than expected from algae-free, shaded pools with higher-than-average calculated dissolved oxygen. Anopheles oswaldoi s.l., the species occurring on the Amazonian side of the Andes, was associated with permanent, anthropogenic habitats such as roadside ditches and ponds. To address the hypothesis that human land use change is responsible for the emergence of multiple highland Anopheles species by creating larval habitat, common land uses in the western Andes were surveyed for standing water and potential larval habitat suitability (Chapter 5). Rivers and road edges provided large amounts of potentially suitable anopheline habitat in the western Andes, while cattle pasture also created potentially suitable habitat in irrigation canals and watering ponds. Other common land uses surveyed (banana farms, sugarcane plantations, mixed tree plantations, and empty lots) were usually established on steep slopes and had very little standing water present. Using distribution and larval habitat data, a GIS-based larval habitat distribution model for the common western species was constructed in ArcGIS v.l 0 (ESRI 2010) using derived data layers from field measurements and other sources (Chapter 6). The additive model predicted 76.4 - 97.9% of the field-observed collection localities of An. albimanus, An. pseudopunctipennis and An. punctimacula, although it could not accurately distinguish between species-absent and speciespresent sites due to its coarse scale. The model predicted distributional expansion and/or shift of one or more anopheline species into the following highland valleys with climate warming: Mira/Chota, Imbabura province, Tumbaco, Pichincha province, Pallatanga and Sibambe, Chimborazo province, and Yungilla, Azuay province. These valleys may serve as targeted sites of future monitoring to prevent highland epidemics of malaria. The human perceptions of malaria and mosquitoes in relation to land management practices were assessed through an interview-based survey (n=262) in both highlands and lowlands, of male and female land owners and managers of five property types (Chapter 7). Although respondents had a strong understanding of where the disease occurs in their own country and of the basic relationship among standing water, mosquitoes and malaria, about half of respondents in potential risk areas denied the current possibility of malaria infection on their own property. As well, about half of respondents with potential anopheline larval habitat did not report its presence, likely due to a highly specific definition of suitable mosquito habitat. Most respondents who are considered at risk of malaria currently use at least one type of mosquito bite prevention, most commonly bed nets. In conclusion, this interdisciplinary thesis examines the occurrence of Anopheles species in the lowland transition area and highlands in Ecuador, from a historic, geographic, ecological and sociological perspective.

New pandemics: HIV and AIDS, HCV and chronic hepatitis, Influenza virus and flu.

New pandemics are a serious threat to the health of the entire world. They are essentially of viral origin and spread at large speed. A meeting on this topic was held in Lyon, France, within the XIXth Jacques Cartier Symposia, a series of France-Québec meetings held every year. New findings on HIV and AIDS, on HCV and chronic hepatitis, and an update on influenza virus and flu were covered during this meeting on December 4 and 5, 2006. Aspects of viral structure, virus-host interactions, antiviral defenses, drugs and vaccinations, and epidemiological aspects were discussed for HIV and HCV. Old and recent data on the flu epidemics ended this meeting.

Stratégies et déterminants de la vaccination au Burkina Faso 1993-2003

Introduction : La vaccination est l’une des interventions de santé publique les plus efficaces et les plus efficientes. Comme dans la plupart des pays de la région Ouest africaine, le programme national de vaccination a bénéficié du soutien de nombreuses initiatives internationales et nationales dans le but d’accroître la couverture vaccinale. La politique vaccinale du Burkina Faso s’est appuyée sur différentes stratégies à savoir: la vaccination-prospection, la «vaccination commando», le Programme élargi de vaccination (PEV) et les Journées nationales de vaccination. La couverture vaccinale complète des enfants de 12 à 23 mois a certes augmenté, mais elle est restée en deçà des attentes passant de 34,7% en 1993, à 29,3% en 1998 et 43,9% en 2003. Objectif : Le but de cette thèse est d’analyser à plusieurs périodes et à différents niveaux, les facteurs associés à la vaccination complète des enfants de 12 à 23 mois en milieu rural au Burkina Faso. Méthodes : Nous avons utilisé plusieurs stratégies de recherche et quatre sources de données : - les enquêtes démographiques et de santé (EDS) de 1998-1999 et de 2003 - les annuaires statistiques de 1997 et de 2002 - des entretiens individuels auprès de décideurs centraux, régionaux et d’acteurs de terrain, œuvrant pour le système de santé du Burkina Faso - des groupes de discussion et des entretiens individuels auprès de populations desservies par des centres de santé et de promotion sociale (niveau le plus périphérique du système de santé) et du personnel local de santé. Des approches quantitatives (multiniveau) et qualitatives ont permis de répondre à plusieurs questions, les principaux résultats sont présentés sous forme de trois articles. Résultats : Article 1: « Les facteurs individuels et du milieu de vie associés à la vaccination complète des enfants en milieu rural au Burkina Faso : une approche multiniveau ». En 1998, bien que la propension à la vaccination s’accroisse significativement avec le niveau de vie des ménages et l’utilisation des services de santé, ces 2 variables n’expliquent pas totalement les différences de vaccination observées entre les districts. Plus de 37 % de la variation de la vaccination complète est attribuable aux différences entre les districts sanitaires. A ce niveau, si les ressources du district semblent jouer un rôle mineur, un accroissement de 1 % de la proportion de femmes éduquées dans le district accroît de 1,14 fois les chances de vaccination complète des enfants. Article 2: « Rates of coverage and determinants of complete vaccination of children in rural areas of Burkina Faso (1998 - 2003) ». Entre 1998 et 2003, la couverture vaccinale complète a augmenté en milieu rural, passant de 25,90% à 41,20%. Alors que les ressources du district n’ont présenté aucun effet significatif et que celui de l’éducation s’est atténué avec le temps, le niveau de vie et l’expérience d’utilisation des services de santé par contre, restent les facteurs explicatifs les plus stables de la vaccination complète des enfants. Mais, ils n’expliquent pas totalement les différences de vaccination complète qui persistent entre les districts. Malgré une tendance à l’homogénéisation des districts, 7.4% de variation de la vaccination complète en 2003 est attribuable aux différences entre les districts sanitaires. Article 3: « Cultures locales de vaccination : le rôle central des agents de santé. Une étude qualitative en milieu rural du Burkina Faso ». L’exploration des cultures locales de vaccination montre que les maladies cibles du PEV sont bien connues de la population et sont classées parmi les maladies du «blanc», devant être traitées au centre de santé. Les populations recourent à la prévention traditionnelle, mais elles attribuent la régression de la fréquence et de la gravité des épidémies de rougeole, coqueluche et poliomyélite à la vaccination. La fièvre et la diarrhée post vaccinales peuvent être vues comme un succès ou une contre-indication de la vaccination selon les orientations de la culture locale de vaccination. Les deux centres de santé à l’étude appliquent les mêmes stratégies et font face aux mêmes barrières à l’accessibilité. Dans une des aires de santé, l’organisation de la vaccination est la meilleure, le comité de gestion y est impliqué et l’agent de santé est plus disponible, accueille mieux les mères et est soucieux de s’intégrer à la communauté. On y note une meilleure mobilisation sociale. Le comportement de l’agent de santé est un déterminant majeur de la culture locale de vaccination qui à son tour, influence la performance du programme de vaccination. Tant dans la sphère professionnelle que personnelle il doit créer un climat de confiance avec la population qui acceptera de faire vacciner ses enfants, pour autant que le service soit disponible. Résultats complémentaires : le PEV du Burkina est bien structuré et bien supporté tant par un engagement politique national que par la communauté internationale. En plus de la persistance des inégalités de couverture vaccinale, la pérennité du programme reste un souci de tous les acteurs. Conclusion : Au delà des conclusions propres à chaque article, ce travail a permis d’identifier plusieurs facteurs critiques qui permettraient d’améliorer le fonctionnement et la performance du PEV du Burkina Faso et également de pays comparables. Le PEV dispose de ressources adéquates, ses dimensions techniques et programmatiques sont bien maîtrisées et les différentes initiatives internationales soutenues par les bailleurs de fonds lui ont apporté un support effectif. Le facteur humain est crucial : lors du recrutement du personnel de santé, une attention particulière devrait être accordée à l’adoption d’attitudes d’ouverture et d’empathie vis-à-vis de la population. Ce personnel devrait être en nombre suffisant au niveau périphérique et surtout sa présence et sa disponibilité devraient être effectives. Les liens avec la population sont à renforcer par une plus grande implication du comité de gestion dans l’organisation de la vaccination et en définissant plus clairement le rôle des agents de santé villageois. Ces différents points devraient constituer des objectifs du PEV et à ce titre faire l’objet d’un suivi et d’une évaluation adéquats. Finalement, bien que la gratuité officielle de la vaccination ait réduit les barrières financières, certaines entraves demeurent et elles devraient être levées pour améliorer l’accès aux services de vaccination.

Explaining legal norm transmission using an epidemiological model : the case of employment drug testing

Dans cette thèse, nous construisons un modèle épidémiologique de la dissémina- tion de normes juridiques. L’objectif est d’expliquer la transmission de normes juridiques américaines régissant les tests de dépistages pour drogues au travail vers le Canada ainsi que la propagation subséquente de ces normes à travers la jurisprudence canadienne. La propagation des normes régissant les tests de dépistages pour drogues au travail sert donc à la fois de point de départ pour une réflexion théorique sur la transmission de normes juridiques et pour une étude de cas empirique. Nous partons de la prémisse que les explications du changement juridique, telles celle de la transplantation et celle de l’harmonisation, sont essentiellement métaphoriques. Ces métaphores explicatives fonctionnent en invitant des comparaisons entre les domaines connus et inconnus. Quand ce processus de comparaison est systématisé, la métaphore devient un modèle. Dans la thèse, nous appliquons cette procédure de systématisation afin de transformer la métaphore de la propagation virale en modèle épidémiologique. Après une revue de la littérature sur les épidémies sociales, nous décrivons les éléments pertinents de la théorie épidémiologique pour, ensuite, les transposer au domaine juridique. Le modèle est alors opérationnalisé en l’appliquant à une base de données composée de la jurisprudence pertinente (n=187). Les résultats soutiennent les hypothèses du modèle. 90 % des décisions qui citent les sources américaines sont infectées selon les critères du modèle, alors que seulement 64 % des décisions qui ne citent pas de sources américaines sont infectées. Cela soutient l’hypothèse d’une épidémie dite de « réservoir commun ». Nous avons également démontré une corrélation positive entre la référence à ces décisions et l’état d’infection! : 87 % des décisions qui citent des décisions qui réfèrent aux sources américaines sont infectées, alors que le taux d’infection parmi la population restante est de seulement 53 %. Les résultats semblables ont été obtenus pour les décisions de troisième génération. Cela soutient l’hypothèse selon laquelle il y a eu propagation à travers la jurisprudence suite aux contacts initiaux avec le réservoir commun. Des corrélations positives ont aussi été démontrées entre l’état d’infection et l’appartenance à l’une ou l’autre de sous-populations particulières qui seraient, par hypothèse, des points d’infection. En conclusion de la thèse, nous avançons que c’est seulement après avoir construit un modèle et d’avoir constaté ses limites que nous pouvons vraiment comprendre le rôle des métaphores et des modèles dans l’explication de phénomènes juridiques.