Validation of a framework for measuring hospital disaster resilience using factor analysis

Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as “the ability of hospitals to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining and surging essential health services, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one.” This article aims to provide a framework which can be used to comprehensively measure hospital disaster resilience. An evaluation framework for assessing hospital resilience was initially proposed through a systematic literature review and Modified-Delphi consultation. Eight key domains were identified: hospital safety, command, communication and cooperation system, disaster plan, resource stockpile, staff capability, disaster training and drills, emergency services and surge capability, and recovery and adaptation. The data for this study were collected from 41 tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province in China, using a specially designed questionnaire. Factor analysis was conducted to determine the underpinning structure of the framework. It identified a four-factor structure of hospital resilience, namely, emergency medical response capability (F1), disaster management mechanisms (F2), hospital infrastructural safety (F3), and disaster resources (F4). These factors displayed good internal consistency. The overall level of hospital disaster resilience (F) was calculated using the scoring model: F = 0.615F1 + 0.202F2 + 0.103F3 + 0.080F4. This validated framework provides a new way to operationalise the concept of hospital resilience, and it is also a foundation for the further development of the measurement instrument in future studies.

Energy price-induced and exogenous technological change : Assessing the economic and environmental outcomes

In this paper, we distinguish between factor/output substitution and shifts in the production technology frontier. Our model includes the by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions where the function requires the simultaneous expansion of good outputs and reductions in emissions. We estimate a directional output distance function for 80 countries over the period 1971-2000 to measure the exogenous and oil price-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial oil price-induced technological progress at the world level when long-term oil prices are rising, although the growth rate is more volatile in developed countries than in developing countries. The results also show that developed countries experience higher exogenous technological progress in comparison with developing countries, and the gap between the two has increased during the period of our study.

Trade-induced technological change : analyzing economic and environmental outcomes

We analyze how changes in trade openness are related to induced technological innovations that are not only GDP increasing but also pollution saving. Our model includes by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. We estimate a directional distance function for 76 countries over the period 1963-2000 to measure exogenous and trade-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial trade-induced technological progress, and its magnitude is about one third of the overall technological change. The trade-induced technological changes, however, are GDP reducing and pollution increasing. Empirically, we find that increased trade openness correlates to increased pollution.

Markers of genetic susceptibility in human environmental hygiene and toxicology : the role of selected CYP, NAT and GST genes

Inherited genetic traits co-determine the susceptibility of an individual to a toxic chemical. Special emphasis has been put on individual responses to environmental and industrial carcinogens, but other chronic diseases are of increasing interest. Polymorphisms of relevant xenobiotic metabolising enzymes may be used as toxicological susceptibility markers. A growing number of genes encoding enzymes involved in biotransformation of toxicants and in cellular defence against toxicant-induced damage to the cells has been identified and cloned, leading to increased knowledge of allelic variants of genes and genetic defects that may result in a differential susceptibility toward environmental toxicants. "Low penetrating" polymorphisms in metabolism genes tend to be much more common in the population than allelic variants of "high penetrating" cancer genes, and are therefore of considerable importance from a public health point of view. Positive associations between cancer and CYP1A1 alleles, in particular the *2C I462V allele, were found for tissues following the aerodigestive tract. Again, in most cases, the effect of the variant CYP1A1 allele becomes apparent or clearer in connection with the GSTM1 null allele. The CYP1B1 codon 432 polymorphism (CYP1B1*3) has been identified as a susceptibility factor in smoking-related head-and-neck squameous cell cancer. The impact of this polymorphic variant of CYP1B1 on cancer risk was also reflected by an association with the frequency of somatic mutations of the p53 gene. Combined genotype analysis of CYP1B1 and the glutathione transferases GSTM1 or GSTT1 has also pointed to interactive effects. Of particular interest for the industrial and environmental field is the isozyme CYP2E1. Several genotypes of this isozyme have been characterised which seem to be associated with different levels of expression of enzyme activity. The acetylator status for NAT2 can be determined by genotyping or by phenotyping. In the pathogenesis of human bladder cancer due to occupational exposure to "classical" aromatic amines (benzidine, 4-aminodiphenyl, 1-naphthylamine) acetylation by NAT2 is regarded as a detoxication step. Interestingly, the underlying European findings of a higher susceptibility of slow acetylators towards aromatic amines are in contrast to findings in Chinese workers occupationally exposed to aromatic amines which points to different mechanisms of susceptibility between European and Chinese populations. Regarding human bladder cancer, the hypothesis has been put forward that genetic polymorphism of GSTM1 might be linked with the occurrence of this tumour type. This supports the hypothesis that exposure to PAH might causally be involved in urothelial cancers. The human polymorphic GST catalysing conjugation of halomethanes, dihalomethanes, ethylene oxide and a number of other industrial compounds could be characterised as a class theta enzyme (GSTT1) by means of molecular biology. "Conjugator" and "non-conjugator" phenotypes are coincident with the presence and absence of the GSTT1 gene. There are wide variations in the frequencies of GSTT1 deletion (GSTT1 *0/0) among different ethnicities. Human phenotyping is facilitated by the GST activity towards methyl bromide or ethylene oxide in erythrocytes which is representative of the metabolic GSTT1 competence of the entire organism. Inter-individual variations in xenobiotic metabolism capacities may be due to polymorphisms of the genes coding for the enzymes themselves or of the genes coding for the receptors or transcription factors which regulate the expression of the enzymes. Also, polymorphisms in several regions of genes may cause altered ligand affinity, transactivation activity or expression levels of the receptor subsequently influencing the expression of the downstream target genes. Studies of individual susceptibility to toxicants and gene-environment interaction are now emerging as an important component of molecular epidemiology.

Genetic susceptibility to environmental toxicants : the interface between human and experimental studies in the development of new toxicological concepts

The growing knowledge of the genetic polymorphisms of enzymes metabolising xenobiotics in humans and their connections with individual susceptibility towards toxicants has created new and important interfaces between human epidemiology and experimental toxicology. The results of molecular epidemiological studies may provide new hypotheses and concepts, which call for experimental verification, and experimental concepts may obtain further proof by molecular epidemiological studies. If applied diligently, these possibilities may be combined to lead to new strategies of human-oriented toxicological research. This overview will present some outstanding examples for such strategies taken from the practically very important field of occupational toxicology. The main focus is placed on the effects of enzyme polymorphisms of the xenobiotic metabolism in association with the induction of bladder cancer and renal cell cancer after exposure to occupational chemicals. Also, smoking and induction of head and neck squamous cell cancer are considered.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

Bullying in children and adolescents : a modifiable risk factor for mental illness

It is a serious concern to health practitioners and policymakers that, in spite of substantial investment, there has been no meaningful decline in the prevalence of mental illness in Australia (Slade et al., 2009). It is now understood that a complex array of biopsychosocial factors confer varying degrees of risk of mental illness. Genetic predisposition, obstetric complications, environmental toxins, poverty, developmental delay, substance abuse, exposure to loss and trauma, chaotic family environments with accompanying abuse and neglect, chronic physical illness and maladaptive interpersonal interactions all contribute to an increased risk of developing mental disorders (Kieling et al., 2011). Bullying in childhood and adolescence is an identified risk factor for mental disorders, suicide attempts and drug and alcohol problems (Copeland et al., 2013; Moore et al., 2013)...

Systems thinking and the 'factor five' payoff

Government efforts to help our economy through the global financial crisis could be eroded by the future economic impacts of global warming. The good news is that a ‘factor five’ approach to productivity – delivering five times more value with the same input, or using one-fifth the resources to deliver the same value – will not only help cut greenhouse gas emissions but, done effectively, bring economic benefits.

A factor 5 water saving with a cooling systems innovation

Melbourne-based manufacturer Muller Industries Australia’s new cooling system saves 80 per cent of the average water usage in commercial office buildings that use water-based cooling towers.

Factor 5 in eco-cement: Zeobond Pty Ltd

Cement production is estimated to be responsible for approximately 6 per cent of total global greenhouse gas emissions. One of the most promising alternatives to common Portland cement is geopolymer cement, and Australian company Zeobond is a bone fide leader in its manufacture.

Soil N2O emissions under N2-fixing legumes and N-fertilised canola: A reappraisal of emissions factor calculations

Introducing nitrogen (N)-fixing legumes into cereal-based crop rotations reduces synthetic fertiliser-N use and may mitigate soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O). Current IPCC calculations assume 100% of legume biomass N as the anthropogenic N input and use 1% of this as an emission factor (EF)—the percentage of input N emitted as N2O. However, legumes also utilise soil inorganic N, so legume-fixed N is typically less than 100% of legume biomass N. In two field experiments, we measured soil N2O emissions from a black Vertosol in sub-tropical Australia for 12 months after sowing of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), canola (Brassica napus L.), faba bean (Vicia faba L.), and field pea (Pisum sativum L.). Cumulative N2O emissions from N-fertilised canola (624 g N2O-N ha−1) greatly exceeded those from chickpea (127 g N2O-N ha−1) in Experiment 1. Similarly, N2O emitted from canola (385 g N2O-N ha−1) in Experiment 2 was significantly greater than chickpea (166 g N2O-N ha−1), faba bean (166 g N2O-N ha−1) or field pea (135 g N2O-N ha−1). Highest losses from canola were recorded during the growing season, whereas 75% of the annual N2O losses from the legumes occurred post-harvest. Legume N2-fixation provided 37–43% (chickpea), 54% (field pea) and 64% (faba bean) of total plant biomass N. Using only fixed-N inputs, we calculated EFs for chickpea (0.13–0.31%), field pea (0.18%) and faba bean (0.04%) that were significantly less than N-fertilised canola (0.48–0.78%) (P < 0.05), suggesting legume-fixed N is a less emissive form of N input to the soil than fertiliser N. Inputs of legume-fixed N should be more accurately quantified to properly gauge the potential for legumes to mitigate soil N2O emissions. EF’s from legume crops need to be revised and should include a factor for the proportion of the legume’s N derived from the atmosphere.

Energy productivity and decarbonization of the global economy: Factor five resource productivity

In the 21st Century much of the world will experience untold wealth and prosperity that could not even be conceived only some three centuries before. However as with most, if not all, of the human civilisations, increases in prosperity have accumulated significant environmental impacts that threaten to result in environmentally induced economic decline. A key part of the world’s response to this challenge is to rapidly decarbonise economies around the world, with options to achieve 60-80 per cent improvements (i.e. in the order of Factor 5) in energy and water productivity now available and proven in every sector. Drawing upon the 2009 publication “Factor 5”, in this paper we discuss how to realise such large-scale improvements, involving complexity beyond technical and process innovation. We begin by considering the concept of greenhouse gas stabilisation trajectories that include reducing current greenhouse gas emissions to achieve a ‘peaking’ of global emissions, and subsequent ‘tailing’ of emissions to the desired endpoint in ‘decarbonising’ the economy. Temporal priorities given to peaking and tailing have significant implications for the mix of decarbonising solutions and the need for government and market assistance in causing them to be implemented, requiring careful consideration upfront. Within this context we refer to a number of examples of Factor 5 style opportunities for energy productivity and decarbonisation, and then discuss the need for critical economic contributions to take such success from examples to central mechanisms in decarbonizing the global economy.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Flying-Fox Species Density-A Spatial Risk Factor for Hendra Virus Infection in Horses in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.

Enhanced processing of SPOT multispectral satellite imagery for environmental monitoring and modelling

The Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya form the northernmost part of Africa’s Eastern Arc Mountains, which have been identified by Conservation International as one of the top ten biodiversity hotspots on Earth. As with many areas of the developing world, over recent decades the Taita Hills have experienced significant population growth leading to associated major changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as escalating land degradation, particularly soil erosion. Multi-temporal medium resolution multispectral optical satellite data, such as imagery from the SPOT HRV, HRVIR, and HRG sensors, provides a valuable source of information for environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level at local and regional scales. However, utilization of multi-temporal SPOT data in quantitative remote sensing studies requires the removal of atmospheric effects and the derivation of surface reflectance factor. Furthermore, for areas of rugged terrain, such as the Taita Hills, topographic correction is necessary to derive comparable reflectance throughout a SPOT scene. Reliable monitoring of LULC change over time and modelling of land degradation and human population distribution and abundance are of crucial importance to sustainable development, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding and mitigating climate change and its impacts. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop and validate enhanced processing of SPOT satellite imagery for use in environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level, in regions of the developing world with limited ancillary data availability. The Taita Hills formed the application study site, whilst the Helsinki metropolitan region was used as a control site for validation and assessment of the applied atmospheric correction techniques, where multiangular reflectance field measurements were taken and where horizontal visibility meteorological data concurrent with image acquisition were available. The proposed historical empirical line method (HELM) for absolute atmospheric correction was found to be the only applied technique that could derive surface reflectance factor within an RMSE of < 0.02 ps in the SPOT visible and near-infrared bands; an accuracy level identified as a benchmark for successful atmospheric correction. A multi-scale segmentation/object relationship modelling (MSS/ORM) approach was applied to map LULC in the Taita Hills from the multi-temporal SPOT imagery. This object-based procedure was shown to derive significant improvements over a uni-scale maximum-likelihood technique. The derived LULC data was used in combination with low cost GIS geospatial layers describing elevation, rainfall and soil type, to model degradation in the Taita Hills in the form of potential soil loss, utilizing the simple universal soil loss equation (USLE). Furthermore, human population distribution and abundance were modelled with satisfactory results using only SPOT and GIS derived data and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. The SPOT derived LULC data was found to be unnecessary as a predictor because the first and second order image texture measurements had greater power to explain variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. The ability of the procedures to be implemented locally in the developing world using low-cost or freely available data and software was considered. The techniques discussed in this thesis are considered equally applicable to other medium- and high-resolution optical satellite imagery, as well the utilized SPOT data.