Pre-play communication and credibility: A test of Aumann's conjecture

The effectiveness of pre-play communication in achieving efficientoutcomes has long been a subject of controversy. In some environments,cheap talk may help to achieve coordination. However, Aumannconjectures that, in a variant of the Stag Hunt game, a signal forefficient play is not self-enforcing and concludes that an "agreementto play [the efficient outcome] conveys no information about what theplayers will do." Harsanyi and Selten (1988) cite this example as anillustration of risk-dominance vs. payoff-dominance. Farrell and Rabin(1996) agree with the logic, but suspect that cheap talk willnonetheless achieve efficiency. The conjecture is tested with one-waycommunication. When the sender first chooses a signal and then anaction, there is impressive coordination: a 94% probability for thepotentially efficient (but risky) play, given a signal for efficientplay. Without communication, efforts to achieve efficiency wereunsuccessful, as the proportion of B moves is only 35%. I also test ahypothesis that the order of the action and the signal affects theresults, finding that the decision order is indeed important. WhileAumann s conjecture is behaviorally disconfirmed when the signal isdetermined initially, the signal s credibility seems to be much moresuspect when the sender is known to have first chosen an action, andthe results are not statistically distinguishable from those whenthere is no signal. Some applications and issues in communication andcoordination are discussed.

Modelo de evaluación integrada del stock norte-centro de la anchoveta peruana Engraulis ringens Jenyns

Se presenta un nuevo modelo integrado de evaluación para el stock norte-centro de la anchoveta peruana que permite reconstruir y hacer un seguimiento de la estructura de longitudes del stock desde un modelo basado en edades. El modelo fue calibrado usando estimados acústicos de biomasa y estructuras de tallas provenientes de cruceros científicos y de desembarques de la pesquería. Para la calibración se utilizó un algoritmo evolutivo con diferentes funciones de aptitud para cada variable calibrada (biomasas y capturas). Se presentan los estimados mensuales de biomasa total, biomasa desovante, reclutamiento y mortalidad por pesca obtenidos por el modelo de evaluación integrada para el periodo 1964-2008. Se encontraron tres periodos cualitativamente distintos en la dinámica de anchoveta, entre 1961-1971, 1971-1991 y 1991 al presente, que se distinguen tanto por las biomasas medias anuales como por los niveles de reclutamiento observado.

Biplots of compositional data

The singular value decomposition and its interpretation as alinear biplot has proved to be a powerful tool for analysing many formsof multivariate data. Here we adapt biplot methodology to the specifficcase of compositional data consisting of positive vectors each of whichis constrained to have unit sum. These relative variation biplots haveproperties relating to special features of compositional data: the studyof ratios, subcompositions and models of compositional relationships. Themethodology is demonstrated on a data set consisting of six-part colourcompositions in 22 abstract paintings, showing how the singular valuedecomposition can achieve an accurate biplot of the colour ratios and howpossible models interrelating the colours can be diagnosed.

UBVRI-CCD photometry of Cepheus OB3 association

Johnson CCD photometry was performed in the two subgroups of the association Cepheus OB3, for selected fields each containing at least one star with previous UBV photoelectric photometry. Photometry for about 1000 stars down to visual magnitude 21 is provided, although the completeness tests show that the sample is complete down to V=19mag. Individual errors were assigned to the magnitude and colours for each star. Colour-colour and colour-magnitude diagrams are shown. Astrometric positions of the stars are also given. Description of the reduction procedure is fully detailed.

An analysis of the currently available calibrations inStromgren photometry by using open clusters

In recent years, several authors have revised the calibrations used to compute physical parameters (tex2html_wrap_inline498, tex2html_wrap_inline500, log g, [Fe/H]) from intrinsic colours in the tex2html_wrap_inline504 photometric system. For reddened stars, these intrinsic colours can be computed through the standard relations among colour indices for each of the regions defined by Strömgren (1966) on the HR diagram. We present a discussion of the coherence of these calibrations for main-sequence stars. Stars from open clusters are used to carry out this analysis. Assuming that individual reddening values and distances should be similar for all the members of a given open cluster, systematic differences among the calibrations used in each of the photometric regions might arise when comparing mean reddening values and distances for the members of each region. To classify the stars into Strömgren's regions we extended the algorithm presented by Figueras et al. (1991) to a wider range of spectral types and luminosity classes. The observational ZAMS are compared with the theoretical ZAMS from stellar evolutionary models, in the range tex2html_wrap_inline506 K. The discrepancies are also discussed.

AUTOIMMUNE PANCREATITIS

Autoimmune Pancreatitis (AIP) is a new nosological entity that was first reported by Sarles et al. in 1961 and then named by Yoshida et al. in 1995 in Japan. It was then ignored by many Western researchers and now, in the last decade; it appears to have been recognized worldwide. AIP is a distinct form a chronic pancreatitis with an immune mediated fibroinflammatory process that has unique histopathologic features that makes it distinguishable from other forms of pancreatitis. Moreover, AIP is the only type of pancreatitis that responds to steroid administration. The Honolulu consensus document that has recently been published by Chari et al. described the histopathologic and clinical subtypes of AIP. Indeed, it appears that there are two forms of AIP, with different prevalence in Europe and Asia and distinct clinical profiles. The first subtype, the most common type in Asia, has recently been named Lymphoplasmocytic sclerosing pancreatitis (LPSP) or type I AIP because of its histological features and its association with elevated IgG serum levels and various autoantibodies. The second one is called idiopathic duct centric pancreatitis, IDCP, or type II AIP, that barely exists in Japan, but more accounted in Caucasian people. IDCP is recognized by its particular histology that is a granulocytic epithelial lesion (GEL) which makes some people call it AIP with GEL. Still nowadays, the diagnosis of AIP is a challenge. AIP can only be definitively diagnosed by histological examination. The main differential diagnosis of AIP is, except chronic pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer. That explains why there are still some unnecessary resections. Several groups have proposed diagnostic criteria for AIP as in Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy and the United States. Thus, it is important to find an international consensus. Above all, it is important to find new criteria as specific markers in the serum and the pancreatic tissues, for example using proteomics, to be able to diagnosis both types of AIP, and distinguish AIP from pancreatic cancer in order to avoid surgical resection in patients with AIP. The aim of this project is to review all relevant studies about AIP and to document all the available diagnostic tools.

The Sensation of colour

The figurative painter accesses very complex levels of knowledge. To produce a painting requires, first, a deep analysis of the image of the reality and, afterwards, the study of the reconstruction of this reality. This is not about a process of copying, but a process of the comprehension of the concepts that appear in the representation. The drawing guides us in the process of the production of the surface and in the distribution of the colours that, after all, are the data with which the vision mechanism builds the visual reality. Knowing the colour and its behaviour have always been a requirement for the figurative painter. From that knowledge we can draw wider conclusions.

Contribution à la cartographie géomorphologique de la dynamique sédimentaire des petits bassins versants torrentiels

Les laves torrentielles sont l'un des vecteurs majeurs de sédiments en milieu montagneux. Leur comportement hydrogéomorphologique est contrôlé par des facteurs géologique, géomorphologique, topographique, hydrologique, climatique et anthropique. Si, en Europe, la recherche s'est plus focalisée sur les aspects hydrologiques que géomorphologiques de ces phénomènes, l'identification des volumes de sédiments potentiellement mobilisables au sein de petits systèmes torrentiels et des processus responsables de leur transfert est d'une importance très grande en termes d'aménagement du territoire et de gestion des dangers naturels. De plus, une corrélation entre des événements pluviométriques et l'occurrence de laves torrentielles n'est pas toujours établie et de nombreux événements torrentiels semblent se déclencher lorsqu'un seuil géomorphologique intrinsèque (degré de remplissage du chenal) au cours d'eau est atteint.Une méthodologie pragmatique a été développée pour cartographier les stocks sédimentaires constituant une source de matériaux pour les laves torrentielles, comme outil préliminaire à la quantification des volumes transportés par ces phénomènes. La méthode s'appuie sur des données dérivées directement d'analyses en environnement SIG réalisées sur des modèles numériques d'altitude de haute précision, de mesures de terrain et d'interprétation de photographies aériennes. La méthode a été conçue pour évaluer la dynamique des transferts sédimentaires, en prenant en compte le rôle des différents réservoirs sédimentaires, par l'application du concept de cascade sédimentaire sous un angle cartographique.Les processus de transferts sédimentaires ont été étudiés dans deux bassins versants des Alpes suisses (torrent du Bruchi, à Blatten beiNaters et torrent du Meretschibach, à Agarn). La cartographie géomorphologique a été couplée avec des mesures complémentaires permettant d'estimer les flux sédimentaires et les taux d'érosion (traçages de peinture, piquets de dénudation et utilisation du LiDAR terrestre). La méthode proposée se révèle innovatrice en comparaison avec la plupart des systèmes de légendes géomorphologiques existants, qui ne sont souvent pas adaptés pour cartographier de manière satisfaisante les systèmes géomorphologiques complexes et actifs que sont les bassins torrentiels. L'intérêt de cette méthode est qu'elle permet l'établissement d'une cascade sédimentaire, mais uniquement pour des systèmes où l'occurrence d'une lave torrentielle est contrôlé par le degré de remplissage en matériaux du chenal. Par ailleurs, le produit cartographique ne peut être directement utilisé pour la création de cartes de dangers - axées sur les zones de dépôt - mais revêt un intérêt pour la mise en place de mesures de correction et pour l'installation de systèmes de monitoring ou d'alerte.La deuxième partie de ce travail de recherche est consacrée à la cartographie géomorphologique. Une analyse a porté sur un échantillon de 146 cartes ou systèmes de légende datant des années 1950 à 2009 et réalisés dans plus de 40 pays. Cette analyse a permis de mettre en évidence la diversité des applications et des techniques d'élaboration des cartes géomorphologiques. - Debris flows are one of the most important vectors of sediment transfer in mountainous areas. Their hydro-geomorphological behaviour is conditioned by geological, geomorphological, topographical, hydrological, climatic and anthropic factors. European research in torrential systems has focused more on hydrological processes than on geomorphological processes acting as debris flow triggers. Nevertheless, the identification of sediment volumes that have the potential to be mobilised in small torrential systems, as well as the recognition of processes responsible for their mobilisation and transfer within the torrential system, are important in terms of land-use planning and natural hazard management. Moreover, a correlation between rainfall and debris flow occurrence is not always established and a number of debris flows seems to occur when a poorly understood geomorphological threshold is reached.A pragmatic methodology has been developed for mapping sediment storages that may constitute source zone of bed load transport and debris flows as a preliminary tool before quantifying their volumes. It is based on data directly derived from GIS analysis using high resolution DEM's, field measurements and aerial photograph interpretations. It has been conceived to estimate sediment transfer dynamics, taking into account the role of different sediment stores in the torrential system applying the concept of "sediment cascade" in a cartographic point of view.Sediment transfer processes were investigated in two small catchments in the Swiss Alps (Bruchi torrent, Blatten bei Naters and Meretschibach torrent, Agarn). Thorough field geomorphological mapping coupled with complementary measurements were conducted to estimate sediment fluxes and denudation rates, using various methods (reference coloured lines, wooden markers and terrestrial LiDAR). The proposed geomorphological mapping methodology is quite innovative in comparison with most legend systems that are not adequate for mapping active and complex geomorphological systems such as debris flow catchments. The interest of this mapping method is that it allows the concept of sediment cascade to be spatially implemented but only for supply-limited systems. The map cannot be used directly for the creation of hazard maps, focused on the deposition areas, but for the design of correction measures and the implementation of monitoring and warning systems.The second part of this work focuses on geomorphological mapping. An analysis of a sample of 146 (extracts of) maps or legend systems dating from the middle of the 20th century to 2009 - realised in more than 40 different countries - was carried out. Even if this study is not exhaustive, it shows a clear renewed interest for the discipline worldwide. It highlights the diversity of applications, techniques (scale, colours and symbology) used for their conception.

Topographic forcing of flow partition and flow structures at river bifurcations

This paper presents the predicted flow dynamics from the application of a Reynolds-averaged NavierStokes model to a series of bifurcation geometries with morphologies measured during previous flume experiments. The topography of the bifurcations consists of either plane or bedform-dominated beds which may or may not possess discordance between the two bifurcation distributaries. Numerical predictions are compared with experimental results to assess the ability of the numerical model to reproduce the division of flow into the bifurcation distributaries. The hydrodynamic model predicts: (1) diverting fluxes in the upstream channel which direct water into the distributaries; (2) super-elevation of the free surface induced at the bifurcation edge by pressure differences; and (3) counter-rotating secondary circulation cells which develop upstream of the apex of the bifurcation and move into the downstream channels, with water converging at the surface and diverging at the bed. When bedforms are not present, weak transversal fluxes characterize the upstream channel for almost its entire length, associated with clearly distinguishable secondary circulation cells, although these may be under-estimated by the turbulence model used in the solution. In the bedform dominated case, the same hydrodynamic conditions were not observed, with the bifurcation influence restricted and depth scale secondary circulation cells not forming. The results also demonstrate the dominant effect bed discordance has upon flow division between the two distributaries. Finally, results indicate that in bedform dominated rivers. Consequently, we suggest that sand-bed river bifurcations are more likely to have an influence that extends much further upstream and have a greater impact upon water distribution. This may contribute to observed morphological differences between sand-bedded and gravel-bedded braided river networks. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Frequency-dependent attenuation as a potential indicator of oil saturation

At seismic frequencies, wave-induced fluid flow is a major cause of P-wave attenuation in partially saturated porous rocks. Attenuation is of great importance for the oil industry in the interpretation of seismic field data. Here, the effects on P-wave attenuation resulting from changes in oil saturation are studied for media with coexisting water, oil, and gas. For that, creep experiments are numerically simulated by solving Biot's equations for consolidation of poroelastic media with the finite-element method. The experiments yield time-dependent stress?strain relations that are used to calculate the complex P-wave modulus from which frequency-dependent P-wave attenuation is determined. The models are layered media with periodically alternating triplets of layers. Models consisting of triplets of layers having randomly varying layer thicknesses are also considered. The layers in each triplet are fully saturated with water, oil, and gas. The layer saturated with water has lower porosity and permeability than the layers saturated with oil and gas. These models represent hydrocarbon reservoirs in which water is the wetting fluid preferentially saturating regions of lower porosity. The results from the numerical experiments showed that increasing oil saturation, connected to a decrease in gas saturation, resulted in a significant increase of attenuation at low frequencies (lower than 2 Hz). Furthermore, replacing the oil with water resulted in a distinguishable behavior of the frequency-dependent attenuation. These results imply that, according to the physical mechanism of wave-induced fluid flow, frequency-dependent attenuation in media saturated with water, oil, and gas is a potential indicator of oil saturation.

Ammonia volatilization from nitrogen fertilizers in no-till wheat and maize in southern Brazil

Crop residues on the soil surface of no-till systems can intensify ammonia volatilization from N fertilizers applied to cereal crops. This study assessed the magnitude of N losses through ammonia volatilization from urea applied to no-till winter (wheat) and summer crops (maize) on a Typic Hapludox in the south-central region of Paraná, southern Brazil. In addition, the potential of alternative N sources (urea with urease inhibitor, liquid fertilizer, ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate) and different urea managements (fertilizer applied in the morning or afternoon) were evaluated. Two experiments with maize and wheat were carried out for two years, arranged in a randomized block design with four replications. Nitrogen volatilization losses were assessed with a semi-open static collector until 21 days after fertilization. In winter, the losses were low (<5.5 % of applied N) for all N sources, which were not distinguishable, due to the low temperatures. In the summer, volatilization rates from urea were higher than in the winter, but did not exceed 15 % of applied N. The main factor decreasing N losses in the summer was the occurrence of rainfall in the first five days after fertilization. Urea with urease inhibitor, nitrate and ammonium sulfate were efficient to decrease ammonia volatilization in maize, whereas the application time (morning or afternoon) had no influence.

Determination of four sequential stages during microautophagy in vitro.

Microautophagy is the transfer of cytosolic components into the lysosome by direct invagination of the lysosomal membrane and subsequent budding of vesicles into the lysosomal lumen. This process is topologically equivalent to membrane invagination during multivesicular body formation and to the budding of enveloped viruses. Vacuoles are lysosomal compartments of yeasts. Vacuolar membrane invagination can be reconstituted in vitro with purified yeast vacuoles, serving as a model system for budding of vesicles into the lumen of an organelle. Using this in vitro system, we defined different reaction states. We identified inhibitors of microautophagy in vitro and used them as tools for kinetic analysis. This allowed us to characterize four biochemically distinguishable steps of the reaction. We propose that these correspond to sequential stages of vacuole invagination and vesicle scission. Formation of vacuolar invaginations was slow and temperature-dependent, whereas the final scission of the vesicle from a preformed invagination was fast and proceeded even on ice. Our observations suggest that the formation of invaginations rather than the scission of vesicles is the rate-limiting step of the overall reaction.

Experimental cutaneous Leishmaniasis: a powerful model to study in vivo the mechanisms underlying genetic differences in Th subset differentiation.

The murine model of infection with Leishmania major has allowed the demonstration in vivo of the importance CD4+ T cell subsets, distinguishable by the pattern of cytokines they produce, on the outcome of infectious diseases. Genetically determined resistance and susceptibility to infection with this parasite are the result of the development of Th1 and Th2 response, respectively. In this short paper, we present some results obtained in our group pertaining to the analysis of the mechanisms, operational during the early phase of this infection, responsible for the maturation of these functionally distinct CD4+ responses.

Color sensation in figurative painting

The figurative painter accesses very complex levels of knowledge. To produce a painting requires, first, a deep analysis of the image of the reality and, afterwards, the study of the reconstruction of this reality. This is not about a process of copying, but a process of the comprehension of the concepts that appear in the representation. The drawing guides us in the process of the production of the surface and in the distribution of the colours that, after all, are the data with which the vision mechanism builds the visual reality. Knowing the colour and its behaviour have always been a requirement for the figurative painter. From that knowledge we can draw wider conclusions.

The use of micro-XRD for the study of glaze color decorations

The compounds responsible for the colours and decorations in glass and glazed ceramics include: colouring agents (transition metal ions), pigments (micro-and nano-precipitates of compounds that either do not dissolve or recrystallize in the glassy matrix) and opacifiers (microcrystalline compounds with high light scattering capability). Their composition, structure and range of stability are highly dependent not only on the composition but also on the procedures followed to obtain them. Chemical composition of the colorants and crystallites may be obtained by means of SEM-EDX and WDX. Synchrotron Radiation micro-X-ray Diffraction has a small beam size adequate (10 to 50 microns footprint size) to obtain the structural information of crystalline compounds and high brilliance, optimal for determining the crystallites even when present in low amounts. In addition, in glass decorations the crystallites often appear forming thin layers (from 10 to 100 micrometers thick) and they show a depth dependent composition and crystal structure. Their nature and distribution across the glass/glazes decorations gives direct information on the technology of production and stability and may be related to the color and appearance. A selection of glass and glaze coloring agents and decorations are studied by means of SR-micro- XRD and SEM-EDX including: manganese brown, antimony yellow, red copper lusters and cobalt blue. The selection includes Medieval (Islamic, and Hispano Moresque) and renaissance tin glazed ceramics from the 10th to the 17th century AD.