Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Managing wetlands sustainably as ecosystems : The contribution of the law (part 1)

The ways in which a society set standards of behaviour and of conduct for its members vary hugely. For example, accepted practices, recognised customs, spiritually or morally inspired norms, judicially declared rules, executively formulated edicts, formal legislative enactments or constitutionally embedded rights and duties. Whatever form they assume, these standards are the artificial construction of the human mind. Accordingly the law - whatever its form - can do no more and no less than regulate or set standards for human behaviour, human conduct, and human decision-making. The law cannot regulate the environment. It can only regulate human activities that impact directly or indirectly upon the environment. This applies as much to wetlands as components of the environment as it does to any other components of the environment or the environment at large. The capacity of the law to protect the environment and therefore wetlands is thus totally dependent upon the capacity of the law to regulate human behaviour, human conduct and human decision-making. At the same time the law needs to reflect the specific nature, functions and locations of wetlands. A wetland is an ecosystem by itself; it comprises a range of ecosystems within it; and it is part of a wider set of ecosystems. Hence, the significant ecological functions performed by wetlands. Then there are the benefits flowing to humans from wetlands. These may be social, economic, cultural, aesthetic, or a combination of some or of all of these. It is a challenge for a society acting through its legal system to find the appropriate balance between these ecological and these human values. But that is what sustainability requires.The ways in which a society set standards of behaviour and of conduct for its members vary hugely. For example, accepted practices, recognised customs, spiritually or morally inspired norms, judicially declared rules, executively formulated edicts, formal legislative enactments or constitutionally embedded rights and duties. Whatever form they assume, these standards are the artificial construction of the human mind. Accordingly the law - whatever its form - can do no more and no less than regulate or set standards for human behaviour, human conduct, and human decision-making. The law cannot regulate the environment. It can only regulate human activities that impact directly or indirectly upon the environment. This applies as much to wetlands as components of the environment as it does to any other components of the environment or the environment at large. The capacity of the law to protect the environment and therefore wetlands is thus totally dependent upon the capacity of the law to regulate human behaviour, human conduct and human decision-making. At the same time the law needs to reflect the specific nature, functions and locations of wetlands. A wetland is an ecosystem by itself; it comprises a range of ecosystems within it; and it is part of a wider set of ecosystems. Hence, the significant ecological functions performed by wetlands. Then there are the benefits flowing to humans from wetlands. These may be social, economic, cultural, aesthetic, or a combination of some or of all of these. It is a challenge for a society acting through its legal system to find the appropriate balance between these ecological and these human values. But that is what sustainability requires.

The contribution of maize cropping in the Midwest USA to global warming: A regional estimate

Agricultural soils emit about 50% of the global flux of N2O attributable to human influence, mostly in response to nitrogen fertilizer use. Recent evidence that the relationship between N2O fluxes and N-fertilizer additions to cereal maize are non-linear provides an opportunity to estimate regional N2O fluxes based on estimates of N application rates rather than as a simple percentage of N inputs as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We combined a simple empirical model of N2O production with the SOCRATES soil carbon dynamics model to estimate N2O and other sources of Global Warming Potential (GWP) from cereal maize across 19,000 cropland polygons in the North Central Region (NCR) of the US over the period 1964–2005. Results indicate that the loading of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from cereal maize production in the NCR was 1.7 Gt CO2e, with an average 268 t CO2e produced per tonne of grain. From 1970 until 2005, GHG emissions per unit product declined on average by 2.8 t CO2e ha−1 annum−1, coinciding with a stabilisation in N application rate and consistent increases in grain yield from the mid-1970’s. Nitrous oxide production from N fertilizer inputs represented 59% of these emissions, soil C decline (0–30 cm) represented 11% of total emissions, with the remaining 30% (517 Mt) from the combustion of fuel associated with farm operations. Of the 126 Mt of N fertilizer applied to cereal maize from 1964 to 2005, we estimate that 2.2 Mt N was emitted as N2O when using a non-linear response model, equivalent to 1.75% of the applied N.

Managing Wetlands Sustainably as Ecosystems: The Contribution of the Law (Part 2)

In this Part 2 attention is turned towards the legal arrangements in nation states for managing wetlands. These national arrangements have effect within the international arrangements already mentioned and any regional arrangements that are relevant. However, each national system is a reflection of its own historical, cultural, political and constitutional background. It is the purpose of this Part 2 to review and assess the national approaches to wetlands management. This involves an analysis of a range of instruments. These are: constitutional rules; strategic rules; regulatory rules; and management rules. Each of these sets of rules performs different functions, assumes different forms and is differentially capable of enforcement.

Parent decisions regarding paid work and care of the child

Australia has witnessed a continual increase in maternal employment over the past two decades, which has placed focus on child care- its effects on the child and on early childhood education and care policy and provision. The engagement of women in the paid workforce contributes to national economic development, and is recognised in government policy incentives such as cash subsidies and tax relief for child care fees. These incentives are targeted towards mothers, to encourage them to engage in paid work. Making a contribution to the family’s economy and to a mother’s economic self sufficiency are two key drivers for women’s engagement in satisfying paid work. Many women also seek to maintain a personal investment in the development of their career, simultaneously ensuring that the child is experiencing suitable care. Policies that support women’s choices for satisfying workforce engagement and care arrangements are prudent for ensuring productivity of the economy as well as for enhancing the wellbeing of parents and children (OECD, 2007). Policies that provide family friendly employment arrangements, paid parental leave, and child care support, directly affect maternal employment decisions. Availability of family friendly employment policies is viewed as one way to not only promote gender equity in employment opportunities but also support the wellbeing of children and families (OECD, 2007). Yet there are not comprehensive and coherent policies on work and family in Australia. Australia is due to implement its first paid parental leave scheme in January, 2011. At the time of the data collection of this research, June 2007 to December 2008, Australia had no statutory provision for paid parental leave. To date, most research has focused on the consequences of paid work and care decisions made by women. Far less is known about the processes of decision-making and reasons underlying women’s choices. Investigation of what is most salient for women as they make decisions regarding engagement in paid work, and care for their child is important in order to inform policy and practices related to parental leave, family friendly employment and care for the child. This prospective longitudinal research was of 124 Australian expectant first-time mothers who completed questionnaires in their third trimester of pregnancy, and again at six and twelve months postpartum. First-time expectant mothers' decisions regarding engaging in paid work and selecting care for their child represent those of a group who are invested in motherhood and have usually had direct experience of engaging in paid work. They therefore provide an important insight into society’s idealised views about motherhood and the emotional and social uncertainty of making personal decisions where the consequences of such decisions are unknown. These decisions reflect public beliefs about the role of women in contributing to the country’s productivity and decisions about providing for the economic and emotional care needs of their family. As so little is known about the reasoning and processes of decision-making of women’s choices regarding paid work and care of the child this research was designed to capture expectant first-time mother’s preferred options for engaging in paid work and the care of their child, and investigate their actual decisions made at six and 12 months postpartum. To capture preferred options, decisions and outcomes of decisions regarding paid work and care of the child a prospective longitudinal research design was utilised. This design had three important components that addressed key limitations in the extant literature. First the research commenced in pregnancy in order to investigate preferences and beliefs about paid work and care and to examine baseline data that may influence decisions made as the women returned to paid work. Second the research involved longitudinal tracking from the antenatal time point to six and 12 months postpartum in order to identify the influences on decisions made. Third the research measured outcomes of the decisions made at each time point. This research examined the intentions, preferences, beliefs, influences, and outcomes of the decisions about engagement in paid work and choice of care. The analyses examined factors predicting return to paid work, the timing of return and extent of engagement in paid work; the care for the child; satisfaction with paid work; satisfaction with care for the child, motherhood and fulfilment; and maternal wellbeing at six and 12 months postpartum. The factors of interest were both rational/economic (availability and extent of paid and unpaid maternity leave; flexible work patterns) and emotional/affective (career satisfaction, investment in motherhood, and concern with quality of care for the child). Results indicated a group preference, and realisation for, return to paid work within the first year after the birth of a child but with reduction in hours to part-time. Most women saw paid work not only as a source of income but also as source of personal satisfaction. There were four key themes arising from this research. First, the women strived to feel emotionally secure when deciding about engaging in paid work and care of the child. To achieve emotional security women made their decisions for paid work and care of the child differently. A woman’s decision for maternal employment is a function of her personal beliefs, preferences and context regarding paid work and care of the child. She adjusts her established work identity with her new identity as a mother. The second key theme from this research is that the women made their decisions for maternal employment in response to their personal context and there were different levels of opportunities between the women’s choices. There is inequity of entitlement regarding work conditions associated with a woman’s education level. This has implications for the woman’s engagement in paid work, and her child’s health and wellbeing. The third key theme is that the quality of the child’s care mattered to the women in the research. They preferred care provided by parents and/or relatives more than any other types of care. The fourth key theme identified that satisfaction and wellbeing outcomes experienced as a result of maternal employment decisions were a complex interaction between multiple factors that change across time with the ongoing development of the mother’s identity, and the development of the child. The implications for policy within Australia are that the employment of mothers in the workforce necessitates that non-parental care becomes a public concern, where there is universal access to good quality affordable care for every child, not just for those who can afford it. This is equitable and represents real choice while supporting the rights of the child (Thorpe, Cloney & Tayler, 2010), protecting and promoting the public interest (Cleveland & Krashinsky, 2010). Children’s health and wellbeing will be supported (Moore & Oberklaid, 2010) while children are in non-parental care, and they will be exposed to environments and experiences that support their learning and development. The significant design of the research enabled the trajectories of first-time expectant women to be tracked from the antenatal point to 12 months postpartum. But there were limitations: the small sample size, the over-representation of the sample being highly educated and the nature of a longitudinal research that is set within the economic, social and political context at that time. These limitations are discussed in relation to suggestions for future research.

Directing Democracy : The Case of the John Lewis Partnership

The John Lewis Partnership was founded in 1929 as an “experiment in industrial democracy” (Lewis, 1948). This thesis explores the meaning of democracy in the Partnership and examines the wider implications of the case. It argues that democracy in work should be viewed as something which is intrinsically valuable because of its connection to furthering justice, equality, freedom and the rights and interests of all workers. The thesis makes three main contributions. Firstly, the production of a historically situated exploration of democratic participation in the John Lewis Partnership – the largest co-owned business in the UK. Secondly, an analysis of power relations in the organisation and an examination of the ways in which disciplinary power and regimes of truth both constrain democratic practice and offer the potential for resistance and challenge. Thirdly, the thesis challenges critics of the Partnership who have dismissed it as a form of “pseudo democracy” (Pateman, 1970: 73) and “suffocatingly paternalistic” (Ramsay, 1980: 52). Despite the constant threat of degeneration and dilution of the value framework laid down by the founder, the Partnership’s continued commitment to democratic participation provides an important contribution to our understanding of co-ownership and democratically organised forms of work. The analysis shows that management have attempted to direct and define democracy in a highly constrained way, assigning it an instrumental purpose, and privileging the ‘business case’ for democratic engagement. However, the study emphasises that the meaning of democracy is heavily contested and fraught with contradictions and paradoxes. This creates a space in which understandings of equality, solidarity and democracy are debated by the 69,000 employees who are co-owners of the business.

Contribution of take-out food consumption to socioeconomic differences in fruit and vegetable intake : a mediation analysis

Lower fruit and vegetable intake among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups has been well documented, and may be a consequence of a higher consumption of take-out foods. This study examined whether, and to what extent, take-out food consumption mediated (explained) the association between socioeconomic position and fruit and vegetable intake. A cross-sectional postal survey was conducted among 1500 randomly selected adults aged 25–64 years in Brisbane, Australia in 2009 (response rate = 63.7%, N = 903). A food frequency questionnaire assessed usual daily servings of fruits and vegetables (0 to 6), overall take-out consumption (times/week) and the consumption of 22 specific take-out items (never to ≥once/day). These specific take-out items were grouped into “less healthy” and “healthy” choices and indices were created for each type of choice (0 to 100). Socioeconomic position was ascertained by education. The analyses were performed using linear regression, and a bootstrap re-sampling approach estimated the statistical significance of the mediated effects. Mean daily serves of fruits and vegetables was 1.89 (SD 1.05) and 2.47 (SD 1.12) respectively. The least educated group were more likely to consume fewer serves of fruit (B= –0.39, p<0.001) and vegetables (B= –0.43, p<0.001) compared with the highest educated. The consumption of “less healthy” take-out food partly explained (mediated) education differences in fruit and vegetable intake; however, no mediating effects were observed for overall and “healthy” take-out consumption. Regular consumption of “less healthy” take-out items may contribute to socioeconomic differences in fruit and vegetable intake, possibly by displacing these foods.

The PSS : From Flat Maps to Layered Perspectives - the contribution of the Airport Metropolis Planning Support System (PSS) to sub-regional planning in the Brisbane Airport case environment

Conventional planning and decision making, with its sectoral and territorial emphasis and flat-map based processes are no longer adequate or appropriate for the increased complexity confronting airport/city interfaces. These crowed and often contested governance spaces demand a more iterative and relational planning and decision-making approach. Emergent GIS based planning and decision-making tools provide a mechanism which integrate and visually display an array of complex data, frameworks and scenarios/expectations, often in ‘real time’ computations. In so doing, these mechanisms provide a common ground for decision making and facilitate a more ‘joined-up’ approach to airport/city planning. This paper analyses the contribution of the Airport Metropolis Planning Support System (PSS) to sub-regional planning in the Brisbane Airport case environment.

A multi-resolution image alignment technique based on direct methods for pose estimation of aerial vehicles

In this paper, we seek to expand the use of direct methods in real-time applications by proposing a vision-based strategy for pose estimation of aerial vehicles. The vast majority of approaches make use of features to estimate motion. Conversely, the strategy we propose is based on a MR (Multi- Resolution) implementation of an image registration technique (Inverse Compositional Image Alignment ICIA) using direct methods. An on-board camera in a downwards-looking configuration, and the assumption of planar scenes, are the bases of the algorithm. The motion between frames (rotation and translation) is recovered by decomposing the frame-to-frame homography obtained by the ICIA algorithm applied to a patch that covers around the 80% of the image. When the visual estimation is required (e.g. GPS drop-out), this motion is integrated with the previous known estimation of the vehicles’ state, obtained from the on-board sensors (GPS/IMU), and the subsequent estimations are based only on the vision-based motion estimations. The proposed strategy is tested with real flight data in representative stages of a flight: cruise, landing, and take-off, being two of those stages considered critical: take-off and landing. The performance of the pose estimation strategy is analyzed by comparing it with the GPS/IMU estimations. Results show correlation between the visual estimation obtained with the MR-ICIA and the GPS/IMU data, that demonstrate that the visual estimation can be used to provide a good approximation of the vehicle’s state when it is required (e.g. GPS drop-outs). In terms of performance, the proposed strategy is able to maintain an estimation of the vehicle’s state for more than one minute, at real-time frame rates based, only on visual information.