A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

An ERP-client benefit-oriented maintenance taxonomy

The worldwide installed base of enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems has increased rapidly over the past 10 years now comprising tens of thousands of installations in large- and medium-sized organizations and millions of licensed users. Similar to traditional information systems (IS), ERP systems must be maintained and upgraded. It is therefore not surprising that ERP maintenance activities have become the largest budget provision in the IS departments of many ERP-using organizations. Yet, there has been limited study of ERP maintenance activities. Are they simply instances of traditional software maintenance activities to which traditional software maintenance research findings can be generalized? Or are they fundamentally different, such that new research, specific to ERP maintenance, is required to help alleviate the ERP maintenance burden? This paper reports a case study of a large organization that implemented ERP (an SAP system) more than three years ago. From the case study and data collected, we observe the following distinctions of ERP maintenance: (1) the ERP-using organization, in addition to addressing internally originated change-requests, also implements maintenance introduced by the vendor; (2) requests for user-support concerning the ERP system behavior, function and training constitute a main part of ERP maintenance activity; and (3) similar to the in-house software environment, enhancement is the major maintenance activity in the ERP environment, encompassing almost 64% of the total change-request effort. In light of these and other findings, we ultimately: (1) propose a clear and precise definition of ERP maintenance; (2) conclude that ERP maintenance cannot be sufficiently described by existing software maintenance taxonomies; and (3) propose a benefits-oriented taxonomy, that better represents ERP maintenance activities. Three salient dimensions (for characterizing requests) incorporated in the proposed ERP maintenance taxonomy are: (1) who is the maintenance source? (2) why is it important to service the request? and (3) what––whether there is any impact of implementing the request on the installed module(s)?

Evidence-based business process management: Using digital opportunities to drive organizational innovation

Process improvement and innovation are risky endeavors, like swimming in unknown waters. In this chapter, I will discuss how process innovation through BPM can benefit from Research-as-a-Service, that is, from the application of research concepts in the processes of BPM projects. A further subject will be how innovations can be converted from confidence-based to evidence-based models due to affordances of digital infrastructures such as large-scale enterprise soft-ware or social media. I will introduce the relevant concepts, provide illustrations for digital capabilities that allow for innovation, and share a number of key takeaway lessons for how organizations can innovate on the basis of digital opportunities and principles of evidence-based BPM: the foundation of all process decisions in facts rather than fiction.

Complex Symbolic Sequence Encodings for Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

This paper addresses the problem of predicting the outcome of an ongoing case of a business process based on event logs. In this setting, the outcome of a case may refer for example to the achievement of a performance objective or the fulfillment of a compliance rule upon completion of the case. Given a log consisting of traces of completed cases, given a trace of an ongoing case, and given two or more possible out- comes (e.g., a positive and a negative outcome), the paper addresses the problem of determining the most likely outcome for the case in question. Previous approaches to this problem are largely based on simple symbolic sequence classification, meaning that they extract features from traces seen as sequences of event labels, and use these features to construct a classifier for runtime prediction. In doing so, these approaches ignore the data payload associated to each event. This paper approaches the problem from a different angle by treating traces as complex symbolic sequences, that is, sequences of events each carrying a data payload. In this context, the paper outlines different feature encodings of complex symbolic sequences and compares their predictive accuracy on real-life business process event logs.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

External support and innovation performance of SMEs in Bangalore: Role of firm level factors

This paper probes the role of internal factors in SMEs in obtaining external support and achieving innovation performance in the context of auto component, electronics and machine tool industries of Bangalore in India. Using step-wise logistic regression analysis, the study found that only if SMEs have internal technical competence in terms of technically qualified entrepreneur, an exclusive design centre, and innovate more frequently, they will be able to obtain external support. Further using step-wise multiple regression the study concluded that SMEs which have come up to implement innovative ideas or exploit market opportunities and which have obtained external support with technically qualified entrepreneurs are able to exhibit better innovation performance.

STREAM Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp 1-21. Jan-March 2007

CONTENTS: Approaches to understanding pond-dike systems in Asia: the POND-LIVE project approach, by Dave Little, Marc Verdegem and Roel Bosma. The contribution of fish ponds to nutrient cycling in integrated farming systems, by P.N. Muendo, J.J. Stoorvogel and Marc Verdegem. Improving the contribution of fishfarming to livelihoods in Northeast Thailand, by Chittra Arjinkit, Roel Bosma, Danai Turongrouang. Benefits of pond-dike systems in Bangladesh, by M.S. Kabir, M.A. Wahab and Marc Verdegem. Common carp increases rohu production in farmers ponds, by Mohammad Mustafizur Rahman, Md. Abdul Wahab and Marc C.J. Verdegem. Improving pond-dike farming systems in the Mekong delta, Vietnam; the Can Tho approach, by Dang Kieu Nhan, Le Thanh Duong, Le Thanh Phong, Roel H. Bosma and Marc C.J. Verdegem. Fuzzy pathways for farm development in Vietnam, by Roel H. Bosma, Le Thanh Phong, and Dang Kieu Nhan.

System requirement report for ‘Level 2’: national management institutions, Fisheries Department in Cambodia

(51 p.)

Assistance in poverty alleviation through improved aquatic resources management in Asia-Pacific: DoF/NACA-STREAM/FAO Workshop on livelihoods approaches and analysis. Yangon, Union of Myanmar, 11-15 May 2004

This is the report of the “DoF/NACA-STREAM/FAO Workshop on Livelihoods Approaches and Analysis” that was conducted in Yangon, Union of Myanmar from 11-15 May 2004. The purpose of the workshop was to develop and document mechanisms for training in livelihoods approaches and analysis, and to build national capacity to conduct livelihoods studies. The workshop in Yangon was the first STREAM event in Myanmar, with colleagues coming to participate from Yangon and many Divisions and States throughout the country. The workshop in Yangon was the fourth in a series, the first of which was held in Iloilo City, Philippines, in November 2003, the second in Ranchi, India, in February 2004, and the third in Vientiane, Lao PDR in March 2004. A subsequent workshop will take place in Yunnan, China. The objectives of the workshop were to: Understand issues of interest to people whose livelihoods include aquatic resources management, especially those with limited resources Build “(national) livelihoods teams” to do livelihoods analyses and training, and share their experiences with communities and other stakeholders Share understandings of livelihoods approaches and analysis using participatory methods Review current NACA-STREAM livelihoods analysis documentation, adapt and supplement, towards the drafting of a Guide for Livelihoods Analysis Experience the use of participatory tools for livelihoods analysis Plan activities for carrying out livelihoods analyses, and Consider how to build capacity in monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and “significant change”. (Pdf contains 56 pages).

Poverty and aquatic resources in Vietnam: an assessment of the role and potential of aquatic resource management in poor people's livelihoods

This report seeks to discuss a variety of approaches to poverty in order to illustrate the diversity of poor people, and the range of ways in which people are poor, facilitating a broader understanding of poverty and the significance of aquatic resources in poor people’s livelihoods. This is intended to provide a balance to the general neglect of the poor in the pursuit of aquaculture development within the Fisheries sector. It is also intended that this approach to poverty will assist in the planning and targeting of aquatic resource interventions that aim to promote poverty alleviation. In its many different forms, poverty remains a persistent problem with a great number of people facing deprivation and vulnerable livelihoods. Rates of poverty alleviation also differ; whereas the Red River Delta has achieved the greatest reductions in poverty, the Mekong Delta has achieved the smallest improvements, with possible indications that inequality has increased (see 2.4). Inequality between regions persists despite progress in all regions. (PDF has 37 pages.)

Investigating opportunities to support indigenous aquaculture in Australia : Visit to Kimberley, Western Australia, May 2003

The STREAM Initiative has been working with issues relating to livelihoods, policy and institutional development and communications throughout Asia-Pacific. Recently this has included work in India with indigenous communities supporting people to have a voice in policy making processes. There appear to be some parallels between this work and the objectives of Kimberley Aquaculture Aboriginal Corporation (KAAC) and also the Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry Australia (AFFA) Indigenous Aquaculture Unit (IAU), National Aquaculture Development Strategy for Indigenous Communities in Australia. (PDF contains 13 pages)

Symposium on participatory approaches to reservoir fisheries management: issues, challenges and policies. Dambulla, Sri Lanka, 04-06 Oct. 2004. Session I: Community-based fisheries management: experience in other countries

This paper advocates strategies, processes and practices that enable: livelihoods approaches rather than resource-based approaches, ‘direct’ institutional and policy development, rather than ‘project demonstrations’, and support for regional, national and local communications. (Pdf contains 12 pages).

Assistance in poverty alleviation through improved aquatic resources management in Asia-Pacific: GVT/NACA-STREAM/FAO International Workshop on livelihoods approaches and analysis. Ranchi, Jharkhand, India, 2-6 Feb. 2004

This is the report of the “GVT/NACA-STREAM/FAO International Workshop on Livelihoods Approaches and Analysis” that was conducted in Ranchi, India from 2-6 February 2004. The purpose of the workshop was to develop and document mechanisms for training in livelihoods approaches and analysis, and to build national capacity to conduct livelihoods analysis. The workshop in Ranchi was a joint India-Nepal event, with colleagues coming to participate from Kathmandu and other areas of Nepal. The workshop in Ranchi was the second in a series, the first of which was held in Iloilo City, Philippines, in November 2003. Subsequent workshops will take place in other countries in the region, including Lao PDR, Myanmar and Yunnan, China. (Pdf contains 48 pages).

Assistance in poverty alleviation through improved aquatic resources management in Asia-Pacific: DLF/NACA-STREAM/FAO National Workshop on livelihoods approaches and analysis. Vientiane, Lao PDR, 8-12 Mar. 2004

This is the report of the “DLF/NACA-STREAM/FAO National Workshop on Livelihoods Approaches and Analysis” that was conducted in Vientiane, Lao PDR from 8-12 March 2004. The purpose of the workshop was to develop and document mechanisms for training in livelihoods approaches and analysis, and to build national capacity to conduct livelihoods analysis. The workshop in Vientiane was the first STREAM event in Lao PDR, with colleagues coming to participate from Vientiane and many provinces throughout the country. The workshop in Vientiane was the third in a series, the first of which was held in Iloilo City, Philippines, in November 2003 and the second in Ranchi, India, in February, 2004. Subsequent workshops will take place in other countries in the region, including Myanmar and Yunnan, China. (Pdf contains 59 pages).

Assistance in poverty alleviation through improved aquatic resources management in Asia-Pacific: Yunnan DOA/NACA-STREAM/FAO Workshop on livelihoods approaches and analysis. Mengzi, Yunnan, China, 6-10 Sep. 2004

This is the report of the “Yunnan DOA/NACA-STREAM/FAO Workshop on Livelihoods Approaches and Analysis” that was conducted in Mengzi, Yunnan from 6-10 September 2004. The purpose of the workshop was to develop and document mechanisms for training in livelihoods approaches and analysis, and to build national capacity to conduct livelihoods analysis. The workshop in Yunnan was the first STREAM event in China, with colleagues coming to participate from throughout the province. It was the fifth workshop in a series, the first of which was held in Iloilo City, Philippines, in November 2003, the second in Ranchi, India, in February 2004, third in Vientiane, Lao PDR, in March 2004 and the fourth in Yangon, Myanmar, in May 2004. (Pdf contains 44 pages).