Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Evolução dos sistema de telegestão da Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres, S.A.

O sistema de telegestão é uma ferramenta que permite a gestão, em tempo real, de todo o sistema de abastecimento da Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres, S.A. (EPAL). Esta gestão pode ser conseguida desde a captação da água até à sua entrega ao cliente final, através dos meios de monitorização necessários às operações de comando que permitem controlar e manobrar à distância os acessórios do sistema (estações elevatórias, reservatórios, válvulas,…). A presente dissertação visa a divulgação e compilação de elementos fundamentais para a otimização das potencialidades que a telegestão oferece, abordando assim, dada a sua especificidade, um tema pouco divulgado mas de extrema importância a quem trabalha ou pretende trabalhar numa entidade gestora similar. Assim, a dissertação é constituída por seis capítulos que compreendem a caracterização do sistema de adução, transporte e distribuição da EPAL, a abordagem genérica das ferramentas de suporte à exploração do sistema, uma resenha histórica do sistema de telegestão na EPAL, bem como informações referentes ao atual sistema de telegestão, nomeadamente a sua arquitetura, principais funcionalidades, tais como o controlo de órgãos de manobra à distância e análise de parâmetros de qualidade em tempo real. Finalmente, apresentam-se algumas conclusões e recomendações para trabalhos futuros. Pretende-se assim que o presente documento contribua para uma aglutinação de informações relativas aos sistemas de telegestão para abastecimento de água, respetivas vantagens aliadas às suas funcionalidades, bem como a identificação de fragilidades do sistema que poderão ser aperfeiçoadas ou mesmo eliminadas.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Partial utility-driven scheduling for flexible SLA and pricing arbitration in clouds

Cloud SLAs compensate customers with credits when average availability drops below certain levels. This is too inflexible because consumers lose non-measurable amounts of performance being only compensated later, in next charging cycles. We propose to schedule virtual machines (VMs), driven by range-based non-linear reductions of utility, different for classes of users and across different ranges of resource allocations: partial utility. This customer-defined metric, allows providers transferring resources between VMs in meaningful and economically efficient ways. We define a comprehensive cost model incorporating partial utility given by clients to a certain level of degradation, when VMs are allocated in overcommitted environments (Public, Private, Community Clouds). CloudSim was extended to support our scheduling model. Several simulation scenarios with synthetic and real workloads are presented, using datacenters with different dimensions regarding the number of servers and computational capacity. We show the partial utility-driven driven scheduling allows more VMs to be allocated. It brings benefits to providers, regarding revenue and resource utilization, allowing for more revenue per resource allocated and scaling well with the size of datacenters when comparing with an utility-oblivious redistribution of resources. Regarding clients, their workloads’ execution time is also improved, by incorporating an SLA-based redistribution of their VM’s computational power.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Conditional probability applied to the definition of limestone geochemical facies: A new Methodological Approach

A new method, based on linear correlation and phase diagrams was successfully developed for processes like the sedimentary process, where the deposition phase can have different time duration - represented by repeated values in a series - and where the erosion can play an important rule deleting values of a series. The sampling process itself can be the cause of repeated values - large strata twice sampled - or deleted values: tiny strata fitted between two consecutive samples. What we developed was a mathematical procedure which, based upon the depth chemical composition evolution, allows the establishment of frontiers as well as the periodicity of different sedimentary environments. The basic tool isn't more than a linear correlation analysis which allow us to detect the existence of eventual evolution rules, connected with cyclical phenomena within time series (considering the space assimilated to time), with the final objective of prevision. A very interesting discovery was the phenomenon of repeated sliding windows that represent quasi-cycles of a series of quasi-periods. An accurate forecast can be obtained if we are inside a quasi-cycle (it is possible to predict the other elements of the cycle with the probability related with the number of repeated and deleted points). We deal with an innovator methodology, reason why it's efficiency is being tested in some case studies, with remarkable results that shows it's efficacy. Keywords: sedimentary environments, sequence stratigraphy, data analysis, time-series, conditional probability.

A contabilidade de gestão nas autarquias locais: o caso do Município de Espinho

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientação: Doutora Alcina Augusta de Sena Portugal Dias Coorientação: Doutora Amélia Cristina Ferreira Silva

Com Hélder Costa: o sábio prático d’A Barraca: relatório de estágio

Relatório de Estágio submetido à Escola Superior de Teatro e Cinema para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Teatro - especialização em Artes Performativas (Interpretação).

A Multi-DAG Model for Real-Time Parallel Applications with Conditional Execution

The 30th ACM/SIGAPP Symposium On Applied Computing (SAC 2015). 13 to 17, Apr, 2015, Embedded Systems. Salamanca, Spain.

A Multiple Criteria Utility-based Approa h for the Unit Commitment with Wind Power and Pumped Storage Hydro

The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.

Potential utility of hyperbaric oxygen therapy and propolis in enhancing the leishmanicidal activity of glucantime

In this study we investigated the efficacy of hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) therapy, alone or combined with the pentavalent antimonial glucantime on Leishmania amazonensis infection. In parallel, the effect of Brazilian red propolis gel (propain) alone or combined with glucantime on L. amazonensis infection was evaluated. The inhibition of the infection in macrophages treated with glucantime in combination with HBO exposition was greater than that of macrophages treated with glucantime alone or HBO alone. The susceptible mouse strain BALB/c infected in the shaved rump with L. amazonensis treated with glucantime and exposed to HBO showed: time points in the course of the disease in which lesions were smaller than those of mice treated with glucantime alone and revascularization of the skin in the lesion site; interferon-gamma (IFN-g) levels were not elevated in lymph node cells from these animals. Propain alone was not efficient against lesions, although less exudative lesions were observed in animals treated with propain alone or combined with glucantime. These results reveal the potential value of HBO and red propolis in combination with glucantime for treating cutaneous leishmaniasis and encourage further studies on the effect of more aggressive HBO, propolis and glucantime therapies on different mouse models of leishmaniasis.

Otimização da operação de picking em armazéns

A Logística, vista como uma perspetiva integradora entre os parceiros de negócio, com objetivos comuns de proporcionar ao cliente mais-valias e aspetos diferenciadores perante os outros concorrentes, contribui em muito na manutenção das empresas na globalização atual, que se torna cada vez mais flexível. Através de uma boa gestão de processos críticos de negócio, boa localização dos materiais, sejam eles quais forem, produtos finais, matérias-primas ou produtos em vias de fabrico e através do transporte a logística cria utilidade temporal e diferenciadora. De facto, a logística poderá assumir um papel fundamental em proporcionar valor acrescentado ao disponibilizar, a tempo, os serviços que os clientes necessitam ou esperam. Enquadrando-se na temática de gestão dos armazéns, o presente projeto consistiu no estudo de operações de picking com a finalidade de otimização dos processos de picking no armazém do operador logístico AR – Serviços de Logística, localizado em Ribeirão, Vila Nova de Famalicão. O trabalho inicial passou pelo levantamento do funcionamento das operações do processo de picking na empresa e posteriormente confrontá-los com as tecnologias e procedimentos atuais no mercado. Com base nos resultados obtidos, foi possível definir e implementar métricas enquadradas nas finalidades estratégicas e operacionais do operador logístico. As soluções passaram também pela melhoria da aplicação de gestão de armazéns (WMS), reavaliação dos indicadores previamente estabelecidos e na aquisição de equipamentos para automatização das operações picking e localizações. Os registos e informações relacionadas com os módulos fulcrais são armazenados e tratados na base de dados de suporte à aplicação com contributo de melhoria contínua aos procedimentos logístico da empresa e sua relação com os stakeholders na estratégia global de negócio com o operador logístico. Finalmente, foi possível analisar os resultados obtidos em modo real em relação as estimativas calculadas e definidas na fase de implementação e desenvolvimento.

What is the value of value-at-risk after all?: A conditional approach using quantile regressions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics