Service Capacity Reserve under Uncertainty by Hospital’s ER Analogies: A Practical Model for Car Services

We define a capacity reserve model to dimension passenger car service installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced by using hospital?s emergency room analogies. Usually, service facilities are designed applying empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the original estimations, and there is a gap between customer?s real demand and the service?s capacity. Our research establishes a valid methodology and covers the absence of recent researches and the lack of statistical techniques implementation, integrating demand uncertainty in a unique model built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, queuing theory, and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Our model has proved to be a useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty integrating the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand and defining a set of new process indicators, such us capacity, occupancy, and cost of capacity reserve never studied before. The new indicators are intended to optimize the service operation. This set of new indicators could be implemented in the information systems used in the passenger car services.

Service capacity reserve under uncertainty by hospital's ER's analogies: a practical model for car services

El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en definir un modelo de reserva de capacidad, por analogías con emergencias hospitalarias, que pueda ser implementado en el sector de servicios. Este está específicamente enfocado a su aplicación en talleres de servicio de automóviles. Nuestra investigación incorpora la incertidumbre de la demanda en un modelo singular diseñado en etapas que agrupa técnicas ARIMA, teoría de colas y simulación Monte Carlo para definir los conceptos de capacidad y ocupación de servicio, que serán utilizados para minimizar el coste implícito de la reserva capacidad necesaria para atender a clientes que carecen de cita previa. Habitualmente, las compañías automovilísticas estiman la capacidad de sus instalaciones de servicio empíricamente, pero los clientes pueden llegar bajo condiciones de incertidumbre que no se tienen en cuenta en dichas estimaciones, por lo que existe una diferencia entre lo que el cliente realmente demanda y la capacidad que ofrece el servicio. Nuestro enfoque define una metodología válida para el sector automovilístico que cubre la ausencia genérica de investigaciones recientes y la habitual falta de aplicación de técnicas estadísticas en el sector. La equivalencia con la gestión de urgencias hospitalarias se ha validado a lo largo de la investigación en la se definen nuevos indicadores de proceso (KPIs) Tal y como hacen los hospitales, aplicamos modelos estocásticos para dimensionar las instalaciones de servicio de acuerdo con la distribución demográfica del área de influencia. El modelo final propuesto integra la predicción del coste implícito en la reserva de capacidad para atender la demanda no prevista. Asimismo, se ha desarrollado un código en Matlab que puede integrarse como un módulo adicional a los sistemas de información (DMS) que se usan actualmente en el sector, con el fin de emplear los nuevos indicadores de proceso definidos en el modelo. Los resultados principales del modelo son nuevos indicadores de servicio, tales como la capacidad, ocupación y coste de reserva de capacidad, que nunca antes han sido objeto de estudio en la industria automovilística, y que están orientados a gestionar la operativa del servicio. ABSTRACT Our aim is to define a Capacity Reserve model to be implemented in the service sector by hospital's emergency room (ER) analogies, with a practical approach to passenger car services. A stochastic model has been implemented using R and a Monte Carlo simulation code written in Matlab and has proved a very useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty. The research integrates demand uncertainty in a unique model which is built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, Queuing Theory and a Monte Carlo simulation to define the concepts of service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Usually, passenger car companies estimate their service facilities capacity using empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the estimations. Thus, there is a gap between customer’s real demand and the dealer’s capacity. This research sets a valid methodology for the passenger car industry to cover the generic absence of recent researches and the generic lack of statistical techniques implementation. The hospital’s emergency room (ER) equalization has been confirmed to be valid for the passenger car industry and new process indicators have been defined to support the study. As hospitals do, we aim to apply stochastic models to dimension installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced. The proposed model integrates the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand. The Matlab code could be implemented as part of the existing information technology systems (ITs) to support the existing service management tools, creating a set of new process indicators. Main model outputs are new indicators, such us Capacity, Occupancy and Cost of Capacity Reserve, never studied in the passenger car service industry before, and intended to manage the service operation.

Robust linear semi-infinite programming duality under uncertainty

In this paper, we propose a duality theory for semi-infinite linear programming problems under uncertainty in the constraint functions, the objective function, or both, within the framework of robust optimization. We present robust duality by establishing strong duality between the robust counterpart of an uncertain semi-infinite linear program and the optimistic counterpart of its uncertain Lagrangian dual. We show that robust duality holds whenever a robust moment cone is closed and convex. We then establish that the closed-convex robust moment cone condition in the case of constraint-wise uncertainty is in fact necessary and sufficient for robust duality. In other words, the robust moment cone is closed and convex if and only if robust duality holds for every linear objective function of the program. In the case of uncertain problems with affinely parameterized data uncertainty, we establish that robust duality is easily satisfied under a Slater type constraint qualification. Consequently, we derive robust forms of the Farkas lemma for systems of uncertain semi-infinite linear inequalities.

Robust Solutions of MultiObjective Linear Semi-Infinite Programs under Constraint Data Uncertainty

The multiobjective optimization model studied in this paper deals with simultaneous minimization of finitely many linear functions subject to an arbitrary number of uncertain linear constraints. We first provide a radius of robust feasibility guaranteeing the feasibility of the robust counterpart under affine data parametrization. We then establish dual characterizations of robust solutions of our model that are immunized against data uncertainty by way of characterizing corresponding solutions of robust counterpart of the model. Consequently, we present robust duality theorems relating the value of the robust model with the corresponding value of its dual problem.

Ending uncertainty: recapitalisation under European Central Bank supervision. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/18, 17 December 2013

Estimates of the recapitalisation needs of the euro-area banking system vary between €50 and €600 billion. The range shows the considerable uncertainty about the quality of banks’ balance sheets and about the parameters of the forthcoming European Central Bank stress tests, including the treatment of sovereign debt and systemic risk. Uncertainty also prevails about the rules and discretion that will applyto bank recapitalisation, bank restructuring and bank resolution in 2014 and beyond. The ECB should communicate the relevant parameters of its exercise early and in detail to give time to the private sector to find solutions. The ECB should establish itself as a tough supervisor and force non-viable banks into restructuring. This could lead to short-term financial volatility, but it should be weighed against the cost of a durably weak banking system and the credibility risk to the ECB. The ECB may need to provide large amounts of liquidity to the financial system. Governments should support the ECB, accept cross-border bank mergers and substantial creditor involvement under clear bail-in rules and should be prepared to recapitalise banks. Governments should agree on the eventual creation of a single resolution mechanism with efficient and fast decision-making procedures, and which can exercise discretion where necessary. A resolution fund, even when fully built-up, needs to have a common fiscal backstop to be credible.

Report of the commissioners of inland revenue on the duties under their management, for the years 1856 to 1869 inclusive; with some retrospective history, and complete tables of accounts of the duties from their first imposition ... Presented to both Houses of Parliament by command of Her Majesty.

Mode of access: Internet.

The complete writings of Walt Whitman. Issued under the editorial supervision of his literary executors, Richard Maurice Bucke, Thomas B. Harned, and Horace L. Traubel;

"The book-lover's Camden edition."

The Mexican war and its heroes : being a complete history of the Mexican war, embracing all the operations under Generals Taylor and Scott, with a biography of the officers ; also, an account of the conquests of California and New Mexico, under Gen. Kearney, Cols. Doniphan and Fremont ; together with numerous anecdotes of the war, and presonal adventures of the officers.

A reprint of two separate works: General Taylor and his staff, Philadelphia, Grigg, Elliot & co., 1848, and General Scott and his staff. Philadelphia, Grigg, Elliot & co., 1848.

The white apron; a compilation of the history of Occidental Lodge, no. 40, A.F. & A.M., Ottawa, Illinois, with a complete list of members from the date of dispensation, 1845, to October 10, 1906, and a summary of her daughter, Humboldt Lodge, no. 555, A.F. & A.M., working under the jurisdiction of the Grand Lodge of Kentucky, 1839 to 1845. Also a resume of her daughter, St. John's Lodge, no. 13, A.F. & A.M., located at Vermillionville in 1841, and transferred to Pern, Illinois, 1843. Also a synopsis of the introduction of freemasonry into America and the first lodges in Illinois.

Mode of access: Internet.

A complete dictionary of poetical quotations: comprising the most excellent and appropriate passages in the old British poets ; with choice and copious selections from the best modern British and American poets /

Mode of access: Internet.

The cyclopaedia of wit and humor; containing choice and characteristic selections from the writings of the most eminent humorists of America, Ireland, Scotland, and England : complete in one volume.

Mode of access: Internet.

The pilgrim's progress from this world to that which is to come : delivered under the similitude of a dream. Wherein is discovered I. The matter of his setting out. II. His dangerous journey; and III. His safe arrival at the desired country. Complete in two parts. With the life of the author prefixed /

Mode of access: Internet.

Illinois Commerce Commission report to the General Assembly : experimental programs initiated by electric utilities under section 16-106 of the Electric Service Customer Choice and Rate Relief Law of 1997.

"This report is submitted in compliance with section 16-106 of the Electric Customer Choice and Rate Relief Law of 1997."

Fox's book of martyrs; or, The acts and monuments of the Christian church : being a complete history of the lives, sufferings, and deaths of the Christian martyrs; from the commencement of Christianity to the present period. To which is added an account of the Inquisition, the Bartholomew massacre in France, the general persecution under Louis XIV, the massacres in the Irish rebellions in the years 1641, and 1798, rise, progress, and persecutions of the people commonly called Quakers, together with an account of the Western martyrology, or bloody assizes; with the lives of some of the early eminent reformers ... /

This edition first published 1829 by William Borradaile, New York (Cf. title page verso)

An inquiry into the medical efficacy of a new species of Peruvian bark, lately imported into this country under the name of yellow bark: including practical observations respecting the choice of bark in general /

Mode of access: Internet.