Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocksbased on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the commonjoins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems.Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomialrandom function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and areexplicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistenciesof the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possiblycontradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that theprobabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere inthe domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identicalmultinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomialdistributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts canbe considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so calledHardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This isa generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignmentof phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilitiesdo not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observedprobabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation ofthe multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shiftcan be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithmto perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and realdata are presented.Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases,joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinbergmanifold, Aitchison geometry

Normal forms, stability and splitting of invariant manifolds II. Finitely differentiable Hamiltonians

This paper is a sequel to ``Normal forms, stability and splitting of invariant manifolds I. Gevrey Hamiltonians", in which we gave a new construction of resonant normal forms with an exponentially small remainder for near-integrable Gevrey Hamiltonians at a quasi-periodic frequency, using a method of periodic approximations. In this second part we focus on finitely differentiable Hamiltonians, and we derive normal forms with a polynomially small remainder. As applications, we obtain a polynomially large upper bound on the stability time for the evolution of the action variables and a polynomially small upper bound on the splitting of invariant manifolds for hyperbolic tori.

Reactive hyperreninemia is a major determinant of plasma angiotensin II during ACE inhibition.

The new ACE inhibitor trandolapril was administered to normal volunteers at daily doses of 0.5, 2, and 8 mg for 10 days. Twenty-one volunteers, aged 21-30 years, were included in the study. To randomly selected groups of seven subjects, each dose was administered in a single-blind fashion. None of the doses induced a consistent fall in blood pressure. Angiotensin-converting enzyme activity (ACE) was measured in vitro using three different synthetic substrates (i.e., Hip-Gly-Gly, Z-Phe-His-Leu, or angiotensin I). Although the degree of ACE inhibition assessed with the three methods varied widely, all methods clearly indicated dose-dependent ACE inhibition. These in vitro results were confirmed by measuring ACE inhibition in vivo using the ratio of plasma angiotensin II (ANG II) to blood angiotensin I (ANG I). The dose-dependent ACE inhibition was paralleled by a dose-dependent rise in active renin and blood angiotensin I levels, most evident on day 10. In contrast, plasma ANG II levels on day 10 were not different whether the volunteers received 0.5 or 8 mg trandolapril. Thus, whereas increasing doses of this new ACE inhibitor progressively enhanced the blockade of ACE activity, this was not reflected by additional reductions of plasma ANG II levels. The progressive enhancement of ACE inhibition seemed to be offset by the accentuation of the compensatory rise in renin and ANG I, which was still partially converted to ANG II.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Interregional compensatory mechanisms of motor functioning in progressing preclinical neurodegeneration.

Understanding brain reserve in preclinical stages of neurodegenerative disorders allows determination of which brain regions contribute to normal functioning despite accelerated neuronal loss. Besides the recruitment of additional regions, a reorganisation and shift of relevance between normally engaged regions are a suggested key mechanism. Thus, network analysis methods seem critical for investigation of changes in directed causal interactions between such candidate brain regions. To identify core compensatory regions, fifteen preclinical patients carrying the genetic mutation leading to Huntington's disease and twelve controls underwent fMRI scanning. They accomplished an auditory paced finger sequence tapping task, which challenged cognitive as well as executive aspects of motor functioning by varying speed and complexity of movements. To investigate causal interactions among brain regions a single Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) was constructed and fitted to the data from each subject. The DCM parameters were analysed using statistical methods to assess group differences in connectivity, and the relationship between connectivity patterns and predicted years to clinical onset was assessed in gene carriers. In preclinical patients, we found indications for neural reserve mechanisms predominantly driven by bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, which increasingly activated superior parietal cortices the closer individuals were to estimated clinical onset. This compensatory mechanism was restricted to complex movements characterised by high cognitive demand. Additionally, we identified task-induced connectivity changes in both groups of subjects towards pre- and caudal supplementary motor areas, which were linked to either faster or more complex task conditions. Interestingly, coupling of dorsal premotor cortex and supplementary motor area was more negative in controls compared to gene mutation carriers. Furthermore, changes in the connectivity pattern of gene carriers allowed prediction of the years to estimated disease onset in individuals. Our study characterises the connectivity pattern of core cortical regions maintaining motor function in relation to varying task demand. We identified connections of bilateral dorsal premotor cortex as critical for compensation as well as task-dependent recruitment of pre- and caudal supplementary motor area. The latter finding nicely mirrors a previously published general linear model-based analysis of the same data. Such knowledge about disease specific inter-regional effective connectivity may help identify foci for interventions based on transcranial magnetic stimulation designed to stimulate functioning and also to predict their impact on other regions in motor-associated networks.

Evolutionary patterns of MHC class II B in owls and their implications for the understanding of avian MHC evolution

Owing to its special mode of evolution and central role in the adaptive immune system, the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) has become the focus of diverse disciplines such as immunology, evolutionary ecology, and molecular evolution. MHC evolution has been studied extensively in diverse vertebrate lineages over the last few decades, and it has been suggested that birds differ from the established mammalian norm. Mammalian MHC genes evolve independently, and duplication history (i.e., orthology) can usually be traced back within lineages. In birds, this has been observed in only 3 pairs of closely related species. Here we report strong evidence for the persistence of orthology of MHC genes throughout an entire avian order. Phylogenetic reconstructions of MHC class II B genes in 14 species of owls trace back orthology over tens of thousands of years in exon 3. Moreover, exon 2 sequences from several species show closer relationships than sequences within species, resembling transspecies evolution typically observed in mammals. Thus, although previous studies suggested that long-term evolutionary dynamics of the avian MHC was characterized by high rates of concerted evolution, resulting in rapid masking of orthology, our results question the generality of this conclusion. The owl MHC thus opens new perspectives for a more comprehensive understanding of avian MHC evolution.

Augmented myocardial methionine-enkephalin in a murine model of cardiac angiotensin II-overexpression.

INTRODUCTION: The endogenous opioid system has been reported to interact with both the cardiac sympathetic and renin-angiotensin systems in exerting a local regulatory action on the heart. The goal of this investigation was to examine how cardiac levels of enkephalin production are altered in the development of normotensive primary hypertrophy due to elevated intra-cardiac angiotensin II (Ang II) production. METHODS: Atrial and ventricular methionine-enkephalin (ME) levels were measured by quantitative radioimmunoassay in 14 and 28-week-old male transgenic mice (TG1306/1R) and control mice. The TG1306/1R exhibit cardiac specific Ang II overexpression and cardiac hypertrophy, but not hypertension. RESULTS: TG1306/1R mice had significantly higher heart/body weight ratios (15-20%) than control littermates at both 14 (p=0.02) and 28 weeks (p=0.04). Relative to controls, ME content was significantly elevated (approximately two-fold) in atria and ventricles in the older 28-week TG1306/1R mice only. A significant inverse correlation between heart size and ME level was observed for 28-week TG1306/1R only. CONCLUSIONS: We have provided evidence that a marked elevation of myocardial enkephalin level is observed in the established (but not early) phase of cardiac hypertrophy associated with cardiac-specific Ang II-overexpression. This study identifies a potentially important relationship between two endogenous peptidergic signalling systems involved in the regulation of growth and function of the hypertrophic heart.

Characterization of the angiotensin II receptor antagonist TCV-116 in healthy volunteers.

The purpose of this study was to assess the inhibitory effect of TCV-116, an orally active angiotensin II (Ang II) antagonist, on the pressor action of exogenous Ang II and to determine the compensatory rise in plasma renin activity and Ang II levels. Twenty-three male volunteers were treated for 8 days in a double-blind fashion with either placebo or TCV-116 (1, 2, or 4 mg PO daily) and challenged on the first, fourth, and eighth days with repeated bolus injections of Ang II. An additional 4 subjects received 8 mg PO daily in a single-blind fashion. The inhibitory effect on the systolic blood pressure response to Ang II was long lasting and clearly dose related. Six hours after 4 mg TCV-116, the systolic blood pressure response to a given dose of Ang II was reduced to 40 +/- 4% and 35 +/- 8% of baseline value on days 1 and 8, respectively. TCV-116 induced a dose-related increase in plasma renin activity and Ang II levels that was more pronounced on the eighth than on the first day of drug administration. Despite this compensatory mechanism, the relation between the time-integrated systolic blood pressure response to Ang II and the time-integrated CV-11974 levels, the active metabolite of TCV-116, was not different between days 1 and 8. In conclusion, TCV-116 appears to be a well-tolerated, orally active, potent, and long-lasting antagonist of Ang II in men.

Structural and Resting State Functional Connectivity of the Subthalamic Nucleus: Identification of Motor STN Parts and the Hyperdirect Pathway.

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson's disease often alleviates the motor symptoms, but causes cognitive and emotional side effects in a substantial number of cases. Identification of the motor part of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) as part of the presurgical workup could minimize these adverse effects. In this study, we assessed the STN's connectivity to motor, associative, and limbic brain areas, based on structural and functional connectivity analysis of volunteer data. For the structural connectivity, we used streamline counts derived from HARDI fiber tracking. The resulting tracks supported the existence of the so-called "hyperdirect" pathway in humans. Furthermore, we determined the connectivity of each STN voxel with the motor cortical areas. Functional connectivity was calculated based on functional MRI, as the correlation of the signal within a given brain voxel with the signal in the STN. Also, the signal per STN voxel was explained in terms of the correlation with motor or limbic brain seed ROI areas. Both right and left STN ROIs appeared to be structurally and functionally connected to brain areas that are part of the motor, associative, and limbic circuit. Furthermore, this study enabled us to assess the level of segregation of the STN motor part, which is relevant for the planning of STN DBS procedures.

Partitioning of reproduction in mother-daughter versus sibling associations : a test of optimal skew theory

A critical feature of cooperative animal societies is the reproductive skew, a shorthand term for the degree to which a dominant individual monopolizes overall reproduction in the group. Our theoretical analysis of the evolutionarily stable skew in matrifilial (i.e., mother-daughter) societies, in which relatednesses to offspring are asymmetrical, predicts that reproductive skews in such societies should tend to be greater than those of semisocial societies (i.e., societies composed of individuals of the same generation, such as siblings), in which relatednesses to offspring are symmetrical. Quantitative data on reproductive skews in semisocial and matrifilial associations within the same species for 17 eusocial Hymenoptera support this prediction. Likewise, a survey of reproductive partitioning within 20 vertebrate societies demonstrates that complete reproductive monopoly is more likely to occur in matrifilial than in semisocial societies, also as predicted by the optimal skew model.

Repetition-induced plasticity of motor representations of action sounds.

Action-related sounds are known to increase the excitability of motoneurones within the primary motor cortex (M1), but the role of this auditory input remains unclear. We investigated repetition priming-induced plasticity, which is characteristic of semantic representations, in M1 by applying transcranial magnetic stimulation pulses to the hand area. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were larger while subjects were listening to sounds related versus unrelated to manual actions. Repeated exposure to the same manual-action-related sound yielded a significant decrease in MEPs when right, hand area was stimulated; no repetition effect was observed for manual-action-unrelated sounds. The shared repetition priming characteristics suggest that auditory input to the right primary motor cortex is part of auditory semantic representations.

Pre-play communication and credibility: A test of Aumann's conjecture

The effectiveness of pre-play communication in achieving efficientoutcomes has long been a subject of controversy. In some environments,cheap talk may help to achieve coordination. However, Aumannconjectures that, in a variant of the Stag Hunt game, a signal forefficient play is not self-enforcing and concludes that an "agreementto play [the efficient outcome] conveys no information about what theplayers will do." Harsanyi and Selten (1988) cite this example as anillustration of risk-dominance vs. payoff-dominance. Farrell and Rabin(1996) agree with the logic, but suspect that cheap talk willnonetheless achieve efficiency. The conjecture is tested with one-waycommunication. When the sender first chooses a signal and then anaction, there is impressive coordination: a 94% probability for thepotentially efficient (but risky) play, given a signal for efficientplay. Without communication, efforts to achieve efficiency wereunsuccessful, as the proportion of B moves is only 35%. I also test ahypothesis that the order of the action and the signal affects theresults, finding that the decision order is indeed important. WhileAumann s conjecture is behaviorally disconfirmed when the signal isdetermined initially, the signal s credibility seems to be much moresuspect when the sender is known to have first chosen an action, andthe results are not statistically distinguishable from those whenthere is no signal. Some applications and issues in communication andcoordination are discussed.