A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

OPTIMIZATION OF THE TREATMENT PROCESS FOR RESIDUAL WATER FROM A BEER INDUSTRY

The optimization of the treatment process for residual waters from a brewery operating under the modality of an anaerobic reactor and activated sludge combination was studied in two phases. In the first stage, lasting for six months, the characteristics and parameters of the plant operation were analyzed, wherein a diversion rate of more than 50% to aerobic treatment, the use of two aeration tanks and a high sludge production prevailed. The second stage comprised four months during which the system worked under the proposed operational model, with the aim of improving the treatment: reduction of the diversion rate to 30% and use of only one aeration tank At each stage, TSS, VSS and COD were measured at the entrance and exit of the anaerobic reactor mid the aeration tanks. The results were compared with the corresponding design specifications and the needed conditions were applied to reduce the diversion rate towards the aerobic process through monitoring the volume and concentration of the affluent, while applying the strategic changes in reactor parameters needed to increase its efficiency. A diversion reduction from 53 to 34% was achieved, reducing the sludge discharge generated in the aerobic system from 3670mg TSS/l. with two aeration tanks down to 2947mf TSS/l using one tank keeping the same relation VSS:TSS (0.55) and an efficiency of total removal of 98% in terms of COD.

Wine industry residues extracts as natural antioxidants in raw and cooked chicken meat during frozen storage

The effect of Isabel (IGE) and Niagara (NGE) grape seed and peel extracts on lipid oxidation, instrumental colour, pH and sensory properties of raw and cooked processed chicken meat stored at -18 degrees C for nine months was evaluated. The pH of raw and cooked samples was not affected by the addition of grape extracts. IGE and NGE were effective in inhibiting the lipid oxidation of raw and cooked chicken meat, with results comparable to synthetic antioxidants. The extracts caused alterations in colour, as evidenced by the instrumental (darkening and lower intensity of red and yellow colour) and sensory results of cooked samples. In the sensory evaluation of odour and flavour, IGE produced satisfactory results, which did not differ from synthetic antioxidants. These findings suggest that the ICE and NGE are effective in retarding lipid oxidation of raw and cooked chicken meat during frozen storage. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Sugar Cane Vinasse to Mitigate Aluminum Toxicity to Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Owing to its toxicity, aluminum (Al), which is one of the most abundant metals, inhibits the productivity of many cultures and affects the microbial metabolism. The aim of this work was to investigate the capacity of sugar cane vinasse to mitigate the adverse effects of Al on cell growth, viability, and budding, as the likely result of possible chelating action. For this purpose, Fleischmann`s yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) was used in growth tests performed in 125-mL Erlenmeyer flasks containing 30 mL of YED medium (5.0 g/L yeast extract plus 20 g/L glucose) supplemented with the selected amounts of either vinasse or Al in the form of AlCl(3) center dot A H(2)O. Without vinasse, the addition of increasing levels of Al up to 54 mg/L reduced the specific growth rate by 18%, whereas no significant reduction was observed in its presence. The toxic effect of Al on S. cerevisiae growth and the mitigating effect of sugar cane vinasse were quantified by the exponential model of Ciftci et al. (Biotechnol Bioeng 25:2007-2023, 1983). The cell viability decreased from 97.7% at the start to 84.0% at the end of runs without vinasse and to 92.3% with vinasse. On the other hand, the cell budding increased from 7.62% at the start to 8.84% at the end of runs without vinasse and to 17.8% with vinasse. These results demonstrate the ability of this raw material to stimulate cell growth and mitigate the toxic effect of Al.

Herbicide distribution in soils of a riparian forest and neighboring sugar cane field

Riparian forests are protected by Brazilian law to preserve rivers and their margins. A sugar cane field adjacent to a strip of young riparian forest bordering an older riparian forest along a stream was used to study the riparian forest as a buffer zone to prevent pesticides pollution. Concentrations of the herbicides diuron, hexazinone and tebuthiuron were determined in different soil layers of a Red Yellow Oxisol during 2003 and 2004. The determination was done by High Performance Liquid Chromatography with reverse phase C-18 column, through two mobile phases. Diuron and hexazinone concentration diminished between the sugar cane and riparian forest as buffer strip demonstrating a protective effect. However, tebuthiuron had about four times higher concentrations in the old riparian forest compared to the other areas. Concentrations were higher in the surface and decreased in deeper soil layers in the old riparian forest suggesting that this herbicide probably was introduced by air pollution. This pesticide concentrated in the canopy could be washed by rain to the soil adjacent to the stream. Our data suggest that climate conditions were responsible for enhanced volatilization exposing the old riparian forest to more air pollution that was captured by the higher canopy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF FIVE SUGAR CANE PLANTERS

Brazil is the world biggest producer of sugar cane with an area of 7x10(6) hectares. Mainly the system used for planting is the semi-mechanized one, which consists in opening the furrows with a machine, manually allocating the fractioned stalks and then covering the furrows done by the machines. The great amount of human labor used in the semi-mechanized system is becoming harder to find and also more expensive, indicating the need of a fully mechanized operation. Currently in Brazil these agriculture machines industries offers six different types of fully mechanized sugar cane planters (two types of whole stalks for planting and four using mechanized harvested stalks known as billets). All of them plant in two furrows simultaneously in 1.5 m row spacing. This study analyzed five different machines and the following variables: Working Speed (km h(-1)); Effective Capacity (ha h(-1)), Drawbar Force (kgf), Draw Bar Power (in HP), Fuel Consumption (L h(-1)) and Costs (US$ ha(-1)) comparing them with the semi-mechanized system. This research also characterized the stalks for planting as viable gems number (%), non viable gems number (%) and billet length (m). And lastly the mechanized planting system is cheaper than the conventional one and none of the machines has an adequate mechanism for placing the right amount of sugar cane seed.

Greenhouse gases emission from soil contaminated with automobile industry residue in Brazil

Solid waste of the automobile industry containing large amounts of heavy metals might affect the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) when applied to the soil. Accumulation of inorganic chemical elements in the environment generally occurs due to human activity (industry, agriculture, mining and waste landfills). Residues from human activities may release heavy metals to the soil solution, causing toxicity to plants and other soil organisms. Heavy metals may also be adsorbed to clay minerals and/or complexed by the soil organic matter, becoming a potential source of pollutants. Not much is known about the behavior of solid wastes in tropical soil as regarded as source of greenhouse gases (GHG). The emission of GHG (CO(2), CH(4) and N(2)O) was evaluated in incubated soil samples collected in an area contaminated with a solid residue from an automobile industry. Samples were randomly collected at 0 to 0.2 m (a mix of soil and residue), 0.2 to 0.4 m (only residue) and 0.4 to 0.6 m (only soil). A contiguous uncontaminated area, cultivated with sugarcane, was also sampled following the same protocol. Canonical Discriminant Analysis and Principal Component Analysis were applied to the data to evaluate the GHG emission rates. Emission rates of GHG were greater in the samples from the contaminated than the sugarcane area, particularly high during the first days of incubation. CO(2) emissions were greater in samples collected at the upper layer for both areas, while CH(4) and N(2)O emissions were similar in all samples. The emission rates of CH(4) were the most efficient variables to differentiate contaminated and uncontaminated areas.

Phytoplasma closely related to the pigeon pea witches`-broom phytoplasma (16Sr IX) is associated with citrus huanglongbing symptoms in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In February 2007, sweet orange trees with characteristic symptoms of huanglongbing (HLB) were encountered in a region of Sao Paulo state (SPs) hitherto free of HLB. These trees tested negative for the three liberibacter species associated with HLB. A polymerase chain reaction (PCR) product from symptomatic fruit columella DNA amplifications with universal primers fDI/rPI was cloned and sequenced. The corresponding agent was found to have highest 16S rDNA sequence identity (99%) with the Pigeon pea witches`-broom phytoplasma of group 16Sr IX. Sequences of PCR products obtained with phytoplasma 16S rDNA primer pairs fU5/rU3, fU5/P7 confirm these result.,;. With two primers D7f2/D7r2 designed based oil the 16S rDNA Sequence of the cloned DNA fragment, positive amplifications were obtained from more than one hundred samples including symptomatic fruits and blotchy mottle leaves. Samples positive for phytoplasmas were negative for liberibacters, except for four samples, which were positive for both the phytoplasma and `Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus`. The phytoplasma was detected by electron microscopy in the sieve tubes of midribs from symptomatic leaves. These results Show that a phytoplasma of group IX is associated with citrus HLB symptoms ill northern, central, and Southern SPs. This phytoplasma has very probably been transmitted to citrus from an external Source of inoculum, but the Putative insect vector is not yet known.

Effect of modifiers for As, Cu and Pb determinations in sugar-cane spirits by GF AAS

Palladium plus magnesium nitrates with and without Ir, Ru and W were evaluated for the simultaneous determination of As, Cu and Pb in cachaca by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. For 20 mu L sample, 5 mu L Pd(NO(3))(2) and 3 mu L Mg(NO(3))(2) dispensed together onto the Ir-coated platform of the THGA, analytical curves in the 0-30.0 mu g L(-1) As, 0-1.50 mg L(-1) Cu and 0-60.0 mu g L(-1) Pb were built up and typical linear correlation coefficients were always better than 0.999. The limit of detection was 1.30 mu g L(-1) As, 140 mu g L(-1) Cu and 0.90 mu g L(-1) Pb. As, Cu and Pb contents in 10 cachaca samples agreed with those obtained by ICP-MS. Recoveries of spiked samples varied from 96% to 106% (As), 97% to 112% (Cu) and 92% to 108% (Pb). The relative standard deviation (n = 12) was typically 2.7%, 3.3% and 1.9%. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Quadrupole Resonance: A Technique to Control Hydration Processes in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Pharmaceuticals can exist in many solid forms, which can have different physical and chemical properties. These solid forms include polymorphs, solvates, amorphous, and hydrates. Particularly, hydration process can be quite common since pharmaceutical solids can be in contact with water during manufacturing process and can also be exposed to water during storage. In the present work, it is proved that NQR technique is capable of detecting different hydrated forms not only in the pure raw material but also in the final product (tablets), being in this way a useful technique for quality control. This technique was also used to study the dehydration process from pentahydrate to trihydrate.

Warehouse, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of exterior wall to warehouse.

Downpipes, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

Detailed view of downpipes and drainage grill.

PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View past tiered amphitheatre and offices above to air strip beyond.

View along western elevation, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View past timber blinds to balcony and timber sunscreens.

Under construction, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of post being hoisted into position during construction.