Clear-sky biases in satellite infrared estimates of upper tropospheric humidity and its trends

We use microwave retrievals of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) to estimate the impact of clear-sky-only sampling by infrared instruments on the distribution, variability and trends in UTH. Our method isolates the impact of the clear-sky-only sampling, without convolving errors from other sources. On daily time scales IR-sampled UTH contains large data gaps in convectively active areas, with only about 20-30 % of the tropics (30 S­ 30 N) being sampled. This results in a dry bias of about -9 %RH in the area-weighted tropical daily UTH time series. On monthly scales, maximum clear-sky bias (CSB) is up to -30 %RH over convectively active areas. The magnitude of CSB shows significant correlations with UTH itself (-0.5) and also with the variability in UTH (-0.6). We also show that IR-sampled UTH time series have higher interannual variability and smaller trends compared to microwave sampling. We argue that a significant part of the smaller trend results from the contrasting influence of diurnal drift in the satellite measurements on the wet and dry regions of the tropics.

Evaluating the Bank of England density forecasts of inflation

We consider evaluating the UK Monetary Policy Committee's inflation density forecasts using probability integral transform goodness-of-fit tests. These tests evaluate the whole forecast density. We also consider whether the probabilities assigned to inflation being in certain ranges are well calibrated, where the ranges are chosen to be those of particular relevance to the MPC, given its remit of maintaining inflation rates in a band around per annum. Finally, we discuss the decision-based approach to forecast evaluation in relation to the MPC forecasts

Identification of forged Bank of England £20 banknotes using IR spectroscopy

Bank of England notes of £20 denomination have been studied using infrared spectroscopy in order to generate a method to identify forged notes. An aim of this work was to develop a non-destructive method so that a small, compact Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FT-IR) instrument could be used by bank workers, police departments or others such as shop assistants to identify forged notes in a non-lab setting. The ease of use of the instrument is the key to this method, as well as the relatively low cost. The presence of a peak at 1400 cm−1 arising from νasym () from the blank paper section of a forged note proved to be a successful indicator of the note’s illegality for the notes that we studied. Moreover, differences between the spectra of forged and genuine £20 notes were observed in the ν(OH) (ca. 3500 cm−1), ν(CH) (ca. 2900 cm−1) and ν(CO) (ca. 1750 cm−1) regions of the IR spectrum recorded for the polymer film covering the holographic strip. In cases where these simple tests fail, we have shown how an infrared microscope can be used to further differentiate genuine and forged banknotes by producing infrared maps of selected areas of the note contrasting inks with background paper.

Climatology of Upper Tropospheric–Lower Stratospheric (UTLS) Jets and Tropopauses in MERRA

A global climatology (1979–2012) from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) shows distributions and seasonal evolution of upper tropospheric jets and their relationships to the stratospheric subvortex and multiple tropopauses. The overall climatological patterns of upper tropospheric jets confirm those seen in previous studies, indicating accurate representation of jet stream dynamics in MERRA. The analysis shows a Northern Hemisphere (NH) upper tropospheric jet stretching nearly zonally from the mid-Atlantic across Africa and Asia. In winter–spring, this jet splits over the eastern Pacific, merges again over eastern North America, and then shifts poleward over the North Atlantic. The jets associated with tropical circulations are also captured, with upper tropospheric westerlies demarking cyclonic flow downstream from the Australian and Asian monsoon anticyclones and associated easterly jets. Multiple tropopauses associated with the thermal tropopause “break” commonly extend poleward from the subtropical upper tropospheric jet. In Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer, the tropopause break, along with a poleward-stretching secondary tropopause, often occurs across the tropical westerly jet downstream of the Australian monsoon region. SH high-latitude multiple tropopauses, nearly ubiquitous in June–July, are associated with the unique polar winter thermal structure. High-latitude multiple tropopauses in NH fall–winter are, however, sometimes associated with poleward-shifted upper tropospheric jets. The SH subvortex jet extends down near the level of the subtropical jet core in winter and spring. Most SH subvortex jets merge with an upper tropospheric jet between May and December; although much less persistent than in the SH, merged NH subvortex jets are common between November and April.

The SPARC Data Initiative: Comparison of upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone climatologies from limb-viewing instruments and the nadir-viewing Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

We present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300–70 hPa) as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir-viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb-viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large-scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb-viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a “zonal mean” ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p ≤ 100 hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak-to-peak amplitude of <15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the data sets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry-climate models, indicating that the multiple-instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.

An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the ocean reanalyses inter-comparison project (ORA-IP)

Many institutions worldwide have developed ocean reanalyses systems (ORAs) utilizing a variety of ocean models and assimilation techniques. However, the quality of salinity reanalyses arising from the various ORAs has not yet been comprehensively assessed. In this study, we assess the upper ocean salinity content (depth-averaged over 0–700 m) from 14 ORAs and 3 objective ocean analysis systems (OOAs) as part of the Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project. Our results show that the best agreement between estimates of salinity from different ORAs is obtained in the tropical Pacific, likely due to relatively abundant atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The largest disagreement in salinity reanalyses is in the Southern Ocean along the Antarctic circumpolar current as a consequence of the sparseness of both atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The West Pacific warm pool is the largest region where the signal to noise ratio of reanalysed salinity anomalies is >1. Therefore, the current salinity reanalyses in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be more reliable than those in the Southern Ocean and regions along the western boundary currents. Moreover, we found that the assimilation of salinity in ocean regions with relatively strong ocean fronts is still a common problem as seen in most ORAs. The impact of the Argo data on the salinity reanalyses is visible, especially within the upper 500m, where the interannual variability is large. The increasing trend in global-averaged salinity anomalies can only be found within the top 0–300m layer, but with quite large diversity among different ORAs. Beneath the 300m depth, the global-averaged salinity anomalies from most ORAs switch their trends from a slightly growing trend before 2002 to a decreasing trend after 2002. The rapid switch in the trend is most likely an artefact of the dramatic change in the observing system due to the implementation of Argo.

Petrogenesis of Upper Paleozoic post-collisional peraluminous leucogranites, Sierra de Ancasti, northwest Argentina

The Santa Rosa and Sauce Guacho plutons are two post-collisional peraluminous Late Devonian to Early Carboniferous leucogranites that intruded the banded schists of the Ancasti Formation. The leucogranites are composed of microcline phenocrysts along with quartz, plagioclase, muscovite, biotite, ilmenite, tourmaline, apatite, monazite and zircon. Their geochemical composition is consistent with S-type granites and mineralogically they belong to MPG granites (muscovite-peraluminous granites). It is proposed that granite magma generation was related to shear zones that concentrated fluids in the metasedimentary crust during a collision or transcurrent tectonics. U-Pb analyses on monazite gave an age of 369.8 +/- 5.3 Ma, while Sm/Nd isotopic data yield epsilon(Nd(t)) values of -5.3 for Sauce Guacho and -5.7 for Santa Rosa indicating crustal provenance. Nd model ages between 1,544 and 1,571 Ma are within the range of magmatic rocks from the Lower Ordovician Famatinian Arc in the Central Sierras Pampeanas.

A criterion for unitary similarity of upper triangular matrices in general position

Each square complex matrix is unitarily similar to an upper triangular matrix with diagonal entries in any prescribed order. Let A = [a(ij)] and B = [b(ij)] be upper triangular n x n matrices that are not similar to direct sums of square matrices of smaller sizes, or are in general position and have the same main diagonal. We prove that A and B are unitarily similar if and only if parallel to h(A(k))parallel to = parallel to h(B(k))parallel to for all h is an element of C vertical bar x vertical bar and k = 1, ..., n, where A(k) := [a(ij)](i.j=1)(k) and B(k) := [b(ij)](i.j=1)(k) are the leading principal k x k submatrices of A and B, and parallel to . parallel to is the Frobenius norm. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning Grammar : A study of upper secondary level students’ attitudes and beliefs concerning the learning of grammar

The communicative approach to language learning is widely taught in Western education, and yet its predecessor, the grammar-translation method, is still commonly employed in other parts of the world. In Sweden, the increasing popularity of the communicative approach is often justified by the high level of students’ communicative skills (Öhman, 2013). At the same time, students’ written texts and speech contain many grammatical errors (Öhman, 2013). Consequently, being aware of their tendency to produce grammatical errors, some students express beliefs regarding both the explicit and implicit learning of grammar (Sawir, 2005; Boroujeni, 2012). The objective of this thesis is to gain more knowledge regarding students’ beliefs concerning the learning of English grammar at the upper secondary level, in Sweden. With this purpose a survey was conducted in two schools in Sweden, where 49 upper-secondary English students participated. Qualitative and quantitative methods were applied to process the collected data. Despite some difference in the participants’ ages, there were many similarities in their attitudes towards the teaching and learning of grammar. The results show that the participants in both schools believe that only by applying both, explicit and implicit methods, can they obtain a high level of language proficiency. The results of this study can help teachers in planning different activities that enhance the students’ knowledge of grammar.

What happens after the central bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

I start presenting an explicit solution to Taylorís (2001) model, in order to illustrate the link between the target interest rate and the overnight interest rate prevailing in the economy. Next, I use Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interest rate by 1%. Point estimates show a four-year accumulated output loss ranging from 0:04% (whole sample, 1980 : 1-2004 : 2; quarterly data) to 0:25% (Post-Real data only) with a Örst-year peak output response between 0:04% and 1:0%; respectively. Prices decline between 2% and 4% in a 4-year horizon. The accumulated output response is found to be between 3:5 and 6 times higher after the Real Plan than when the whole sample is considered. The 95% confidence bands obtained using bias-corrected bootstrap always include the null output response when the whole sample is used, but not when the data is restricted to the Post-Real period. Innovations to interest rates explain between 4:9% (whole sample) and 9:2% (post-Real sample) of the forecast error of GDP.

What happens after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

In this paper I use Taylor's (2001) model and Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of some key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil, through the COPOM, increases the target interest rate by 1%. From a quantitative perspective, the best estimate from the empírical analysis, obtained with a 1994 : 2 - 2004 : 2 subsample of the data, is that GDP goes through an accumulated decline, over the next four years, around 0.08%. Innovations to interest rates explain around 9.2% of the forecast erro r of GDP.

Relationship of upper-limb and thoracic muscle strength to 6-min walk distance in COPD patients

Study objectives: This study was developed to investigate the influence of thoracic and upperlimb muscle function on 6-min walk distance (6MWD) in patients with COPD.Design: A prospective, cross-sectional study.Setting: the pulmonary rehabilitation center of a university hospital.Patients: Thirty-eight patients with mild to very severe COPD were evaluated.Measurements and results: Pulmonary function and baseline dyspnea index (BDI) were assessed, handgrip strength, maximal inspiratory pressure (Pimax), and 6MWD were measured, and the one-repetition maximum (1RM) was determined for each of four exercises (bench press, lat pull down, leg extension, and leg press) performed on gymnasium equipment. Quality of life was assessed using the St. George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ). We found statistically significant positive correlations between 6MWD and body weight (r = 0.32; p < 0.05), BDI (r = 0.50; p < 0.01), FEV, (r = 0.33; p < 0.05), PImax (r = 0.53; p < 0.01), and all values of 1RM. A statistically significant negative correlation was observed between 6MWD and dyspnea at the end of the 6-min walk test (r = -0.29; p < 0.05), as well as between 6MWD and the SGRQ activity domain (r = -0.45; p < 0.01) and impact domain (r = -0.34; p < 0.05) and total score (r = -0.40; p < 0.01). Multiple regression analysis selected body weight, BDI, Pimax, and lat pull down IRM as predictive factors for 6MWD (R-2 = 0.589).Conclusions: the results of this study showed the importance of the skeletal musculature of the thorax and upper limbs in submaximal exercise tolerance and could open new perspectives for training programs designed to improve functional activity in COPD patients.