Bayesian networks and the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science

Résumé Ce travail de thèse étudie des moyens de formalisation permettant d'assister l'expert forensique dans la gestion des facteurs influençant l'évaluation des indices scientifiques, tout en respectant des procédures d'inférence établies et acceptables. Selon une vue préconisée par une partie majoritaire de la littérature forensique et juridique - adoptée ici sans réserve comme point de départ - la conceptualisation d'une procédure évaluative est dite 'cohérente' lors qu'elle repose sur une implémentation systématique de la théorie des probabilités. Souvent, par contre, la mise en oeuvre du raisonnement probabiliste ne découle pas de manière automatique et peut se heurter à des problèmes de complexité, dus, par exemple, à des connaissances limitées du domaine en question ou encore au nombre important de facteurs pouvant entrer en ligne de compte. En vue de gérer ce genre de complications, le présent travail propose d'investiguer une formalisation de la théorie des probabilités au moyen d'un environment graphique, connu sous le nom de Réseaux bayesiens (Bayesian networks). L'hypothèse principale que cette recherche envisage d'examiner considère que les Réseaux bayesiens, en concert avec certains concepts accessoires (tels que des analyses qualitatives et de sensitivité), constituent une ressource clé dont dispose l'expert forensique pour approcher des problèmes d'inférence de manière cohérente, tant sur un plan conceptuel que pratique. De cette hypothèse de travail, des problèmes individuels ont été extraits, articulés et abordés dans une série de recherches distinctes, mais interconnectées, et dont les résultats - publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture - sont présentés sous forme d'annexes. D'un point de vue général, ce travail apporte trois catégories de résultats. Un premier groupe de résultats met en évidence, sur la base de nombreux exemples touchant à des domaines forensiques divers, l'adéquation en termes de compatibilité et complémentarité entre des modèles de Réseaux bayesiens et des procédures d'évaluation probabilistes existantes. Sur la base de ces indications, les deux autres catégories de résultats montrent, respectivement, que les Réseaux bayesiens permettent également d'aborder des domaines auparavant largement inexplorés d'un point de vue probabiliste et que la disponibilité de données numériques dites 'dures' n'est pas une condition indispensable pour permettre l'implémentation des approches proposées dans ce travail. Le présent ouvrage discute ces résultats par rapport à la littérature actuelle et conclut en proposant les Réseaux bayesiens comme moyen d'explorer des nouvelles voies de recherche, telles que l'étude de diverses formes de combinaison d'indices ainsi que l'analyse de la prise de décision. Pour ce dernier aspect, l'évaluation des probabilités constitue, dans la façon dont elle est préconisée dans ce travail, une étape préliminaire fondamentale de même qu'un moyen opérationnel.

Systematic study of the temperature dependence of the saturation magnetization in Fe, Fe-Ni and Co-based amorphous alloys

Magnetization versus temperature in the temperature interval 2-200 K was measured for amorphous alloys of three different compositions: Fe 81.5B14.5Si4, Fe40Ni38 Mo4B18, and Co70Fe5Ni 2Mo3B5Si15. The measurements were performed by means of a SQUID (superconducting quantum interference device) magnetometer. The aim was to extract information about the different mechanisms contributing to thermal demagnetization. A powerful data analysis technique based on successive minimization procedures has demonstrated that Stoner excitations of the strong ferromagnetic type play a significant role in the Fe-Ni alloy studied. The Fe-rich and Co-rich alloys do not show a measurable contribution from single-particle excitations.

Discrepancies between clinical needs and helpseeking behaviors in co-occurring posttraumatic stress and alcohol use disorders.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to compare subjects dually diagnosed with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) to those with only one or none of these conditions regarding helpseeking needs and behaviors. METHOD: Data from a large community sample (N=3694) were used to assess the associations among lifetime PTSD and AUD, other psychiatric disorders, clinical characteristics and lifetime helpseeking behaviors derived from a semi-structured interview. RESULTS: Comorbid individuals had more severe clinical profiles and were more impaired than individuals with either PTSD or AUD alone or those with no/other psychiatric conditions. However, they did not differ in overall helpseeking behavior from any other group. Those with comorbid PTSD/AUD were even less likely than the other groups to seek help for depression and anxiety disorders through specific treatment facilities or the use of prescribed psychotropic drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a greater need for treatment the comorbid group did not seek more help than the others. Their lower use of prescribed drugs supports the self-medication hypothesis, suggesting that those individuals relieve their symptoms through higher alcohol use instead. Our findings underline the need for health care facilities to encourage helpseeking behavior in the aftermath of stressful life events.

Aluminium fouling and its impact on activated carbon based dioxin and furan removal in a wet scrubber at a co-incineration plant

Dioxins and furans, PCDD/Fs, are highly toxic substances formed in post combustion zones in furnaces. PCDD/F emissions are regulated by a waste incineration directive which relates also to co-incineration plants. Several observations of dioxin and furan enhancements in wet scrub- bers have been reported previously. This is thought to be due to the so-called "memory effect" which occurs when dioxins and furans absorb into plastic material in scrubbers and desorb when ambient circumstances alter significantly. At the co-incineration plant involved, dioxins and furans are controlled with a wet scrubber, the tower packing of which is made of plastic in which activated carbon particles are dispersed. This should avoid the memory effect and act as a dioxin and furan sink since dioxins and furans are absorbed irreversibly into the packing ma- terial. In this case, the tower packing in the scrubber is covered with a white layer that has been found to be mainly aluminium. The aim of this thesis was to determine the aluminium balance and the dioxin and furan behaviour in the scrubber and, thus, the impacts that the foul- ing has on dioxin and furan removal. The source of aluminium, reasons for fouling and further actions to minimize its impacts on dioxin and furan removal were also to be discovered. Measurements in various media around the scrubber and in fuels were made and a profile analysis of PCDD/F and mass balance calculations were carried out. PCDD/F content de- creased in the scrubber. The reduced PCDD/F was not discharged into scrubbing water. The removal mechanism seems to work in spite of the fouling, at least with low PCDD/F loads. Most of the PCDD/F in excess water originates from the Kymijoki River which is used as feeding water in the scrubber. Fouling turned out to consist mainly of aluminium hydroxides. Sludge combusted in the furnace was found to be a significant source of aluminium. Ways to minimize the fouling would be adjustment of pH to a proper lever, installation of a mechanical filter to catch the loose material from the scrubbing water and affecting the aluminium content of the sludge.

Co-evolution of Policy Sectors: Health Care and Public Health in five Countries

Cette thèse analyse la co-évolution de deux secteurs dans la politique de la santé: santé publique (public health) et soins aux malades (health care). En d'autres termes, la relation entre les dimensions curative et préventive de la politique de la santé et leur développement dans la durée. Une telle recherche est nécessaire car les problèmes de la santé sont complexes et ont besoin de solutions coordonnées. De plus, les dépenses de la santé ont augmenté sans arrt durant les dernières décennies. Un moyen de réduire une future augmentation des dépenses pourrait consister en davantage d'investissement dans des mesures préventives. En relation avec cette idée, ma recherche analyse les politiques de la santé publique et les soins aux malades de cinq pays: Allemagne, Angleterre, Australie, Etats-Unis et Suisse. En m'appuyant sur la littérature secondaire, des statistiques descriptives et des entretiens avec des experts et des politiciens, j'analyse la relation entre les deux secteurs depuis la fin du dix-neuvième siècle. En particulier, je me focalise sur la relation des deux champs sur trois niveaux: institutions, acteurs et politiques. Mes résultats montrent les similitudes et les différences d'évolution entre les cinq pays. D'un c^oté, lorsque la profession médicale est politiquement active et que le pays consiste en une fédération centralisée ou en un gouvernement unitaire, les deux secteurs sont intégrés au niveau institutionnel, ralliant les professions et groupes d'intérêt des deux secteurs la cause commune dans une activité politique. Par contre, dans tous les pays, les deux secteurs ont co-évolué vers une complémentarité malgré de la politisation des professions et la centralisation du gouvernement. Ces résultats sont intéressants pour la science politique en général car ils soulignent l'importance des professions pour le développement institutionnel et proposent un cadre pour l'analyse de la co-évolution des politiques publiques en général. -- This Ph.D. thesis analyzes the co-evolution of the health care and the public health sectors. In other words, the relation between preventive and curative health policy and its evolution over time. Such research is necessary, because current health problems are complex and might need coordinated solutions. What is more, health expenditures have increased continuously in the last decades. One way to slow down further increase in health spending could be to invest more in preventative health policies. Therefore, I am connecting individual health care and public health into a common analysis, taking Australia, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the U.S. as examples. Based on secondary literature, descriptive statistics and interviews with experts and policymakers, I am analyzing how the two sectors' relations co-evolved between the late nineteenth and the early twenty-first century. Specifically, I am researching how health care and public health were related on the levels of institutions, actors and policies. My results show that there are differences and similarities in the co-evolution of policy sectors between these countries. On the one hand, when the medical profession was politically active and the country a centralized federation or a unitary state, there was institutional integration and common political advocacy of the sectors' interest groups and professions. On the other hand, in all countries, both sectors co-evolved towards complementarity, irrespectively of the politicization of professions and centralization of government. These findings are interesting for the political science literature at large, because they underline the importance of professions for institutional development and propose an analytical framework for analyzing the co-evolution of policy sectors in general.

Value co-creation in industrial buyer-seller partnerships - creating and exploiting interdependencies : an empirical case study

In summary the main findings of the study are that there seems to be is no universal definition of value in the context of industrial relationships, but a notion that it is context-, time-, and actor dependent. Value co-creation is a suitable concept in the context of buyerseller relationships. The evolution of a relationship from a transactional to a partnership is long and eventful - a process where the outcome is impossible to estimate in advance. The process is filled with differenttypes of events and also conflicts, which as a matter of fact can be seen as constructive forces in relationship development. The perceived value of a relationship is an antecedent to pursuing a high-involvement strategy; once a partnership exists, the value co-creation potential is realizable through exploiting interdependencies. Those interdependencies are the trigger for value co-creation potential. The value cocreation potential is realized though different processes of value co-creation either to achieve efficiency in exchange or effective use of resources. The logic of buyer-seller partnerships is to create and exploit interdependencies in order to create both efficiency and effective use of resources. (Summary of main findings p. 176)

FLOWERING AND POLLINATORS OF THREE DISTYLOUS SPECIES OF Psychotria (Rubiaceae) CO-OCCURRING IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST1

ABSTRACT This study investigates the flowering and pollinators of the floral morphs of three co-occurring distylous species, Psychotria conjugens Müll, P. hastisepala Müll. Arg. and P. sessilis Vell., in two consecutive flowering seasons in an Atlantic Forest fragment in southeastern Brazil. The species have diurnal, cream-colored, tubular, nectariferous flowers and their flowering occurs in the rainy season, from September to April, with little or no overlapping between species, characterizing a staggered flowering. The flowering of the long-and short-styled floral morphs of each species was synchronous, but the number of open flowers per day per morph tended to vary in each flowering season. These numbers were higher in P. sessilis and P. conjugens and, probably, resulted in higher total numbers of visits on its flowers (up to 1084 visits in P. sessilis and 756 in P. conjugens), compared to that observed in P. hastisepala (up to 71). There was a higher frequency of visits to long-styled flowers of all species. The bee Ariphanarthra palpalis was a common pollinator to all species. This bee is native to Brazil, solitary, considered relatively rare and its host plants were unknown. Other native bees (Melipona spp.) also visited the flowers of the Psychotria species. The availability of flowers with similar floral features over eight months, the staggered flowering and common pollinators appear to be part of a strategy to attract floral visitors, minimizing the competition for pollinators and then favoring the legitimate pollination of these plants.

Co-infection by porcine circovirus type 2 and porcine parvovirus in aborted fetuses and stillborn piglets in southern Brazil

Porcine circovirus types 1 and 2 (PCV1, PCV2) and porcine parvovirus (PPV) are widespread in pig populations around the world. Nevertheless, only PCV2 has been associated with different clinical syndromes, thus representing a major problem to the pig industry. The association of cases of swine abortions and stillborns with PCV1 and PCV2 and PPV was studied retrospectively (2005-2007). Additional pathogens were also investigated in lesioned fetuses. The studied litters included stillborn piglets and several mummified fetuses of varied sizes. Ventricular dilatation, myocardial pale areas, and mesocolic edema were the gross lesions. Escherichia coli was detected as co-infecting with PCV2 the cases in which mesocolic edema was seen. Microscopic lesions included non-suppurative myocarditis, myocardial necrosis and fibrosis, mineralization foci and intranuclear inclusion bodies in cardiomyocytes, and interstitial mononuclear pneumonia. Samples from 7 (5.78 per cent) of 121 aborted fetuses and stillborn piglets had lesions consistent with a viral cause and showed both positive anti-PCV2 immunostaining as well as PCV2-PCR. In samples from 3 (2.47 per cent) of these 7 fetuses, co-infection with PPV was confirmed by Nested-PCR. Both viruses were detected in fetuses at different stages of gestation. Viral antigens of PCV2 were detected by immunohistochemistry mainly in macrophages and myocytes. PCV1 individually was not detected in any of these affected fetuses, but it was associated with PCV2 and/or PPV in some of them. These findings indicate that PCV2 alone or in association with PPV should be kept in mind when investigating causes of infectious abortion in pigs in Brazil.

Co-infection by Tritrichomonas foetus and Pentatrichomonas hominis in asymptomatic cats

Abstract: Tritrichomonas foetus, a parasite well known for its significance as a venereally transmitted pathogen in cattle, has been identified as a cause of chronic large bowel diarrhea in domestic cats in many countries of the world. In Brazil, several studies on the diagnosis of bovine trichomoniasis have been performed, but until now, no study was made regarding feline trichomoniasis. Thus, this is the first study to report the occurrence of T. foetus and Pentatrichomonas hominis in cats using morphological and molecular analysis. Feces from 77 cats were examined, four of which (5.2%) were positive for the presence of parabasalids. Morphological analysis of stained smears revealed piriform trophozoites showing the three anterior flagella, elongated nucleus and axostyle ending abruptly in fillet, characteristic of T. foetus. In scanning and transmission electron microscopy, identification characters similar to those previously reported for T. foetus were observed. The cultures containing trophozoites were submitted for molecular analysis, which resulted positive for T. foetus DNA using specific primers (TFR3 and TFR4), and all samples were positive and subjected to sequencing in which they showed 99.7-100% similarity with another isolate sequencing of T. foetus (JX960422). Although no trophozoite with consistent morphology of P. hominis has been visualized in the samples, differential diagnosis was performed using specific primers for P. hominis (TH3 and TH5) amplicon. In three of the four samples (3.89%) sequencing revealed 100% similarity when compared with another sequence of P. hominis deposited in Genbank (KC623939). Therefore, the present study revealed through the diagnostic techniques employed the simultaneous infection by T. foetus and P. hominis in the feces of cats. However, it was necessary to use more than one technique for the diagnosis of the co-infection. These results demonstrate the importance of a correct diagnosis to allow an appropriate treatment by the veterinarian.

Targeted Annotation of Scientific Literature and Data Resources in Invenio Digital Libraries

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Individual learner, peer group and teacher roles in fostering autonomous language-learning behaviour

Julkaisumaa: Bulgaria