The role of inflammation in vascular function and pregnancy outcome in the pregnant stroke prone spontaneously hypertensive rat

During pregnancy, the maternal cardiovascular system undergoes major adaptation. One of these changes is a 40-50 % increase in circulating blood volume which requires a systemic remodelling of the vasculature in order to regulate maternal blood pressure and maximise blood supply to the developing placenta and fetus. These changes are broadly conserved between humans and rats making them an appropriate pre-clinical model in which to study the underlying mechanisms of pregnancy-dependent cardiovascular remodelling. Whilst women are normally protected against cardiovascular disease; pregnancy marks a period of time where women are susceptible to cardiovascular complications. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the United Kingdom; in particular hypertensive conditions are among the most common complications of pregnancy. One of the main underlying pathologies of these pregnancy complications is thought to be a failure of the maternal cardiovascular system to adapt. The remodelling of the uterine arteries, which directly supply the maternal-fetal interface, is paramount to a healthy pregnancy. Failure of the uterine arteries to remodel sufficiently can result in a number of obstetric complications such as preeclampsia, fetal growth restriction and spontaneous pregnancy loss. At present, it is poorly understood whether this deficient vascular response is due to a predisposition from existing maternal cardiovascular risk factors, the physiological changes that occur during pregnancy or a combination of both. Previous work in our group employed the stroke prone spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHRSP) as a model to investigate pregnancy-dependent remodelling of the uterine arteries. The SHRSP develops hypertension from 6 weeks of age and can be contrasted with the control strain, the Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat. The phenotype of the SHRSP is therefore reflective of the clinical situation of maternal chronic hypertension during pregnancy. We showed that the SHRSP exhibited a deficient uterine artery remodelling response with respect to both structure and function accompanied by a reduction in litter size relative to the WKY at gestational day (GD) 18. A previous intervention study using nifedipine in the SHRSP achieved successful blood pressure reduction from 6 weeks of age and throughout pregnancy; however uterine artery remodelling and litter size at GD18 was not improved. We concluded that the abnormal uterine artery remodelling present in the SHRSP was independent of chronic hypertension. From these findings, we hypothesised that the SHRSP could be a novel model of spontaneously deficient uterine artery remodelling in response to pregnancy which was underpinned by other as yet unidentified cardiovascular risk factors. In Chapter 1 of this thesis, I have characterised the maternal, placental and fetal phenotype in pregnant (GD18) SHRSP and WKY. The pregnant SHRSP exhibit features of left ventricular hypertrophy in response to pregnancy and altered expression of maternal plasma biomarkers which have been previously associated with hypertension in human pregnancy. I developed a protocol for accurate dissection of the rat uteroplacental unit using qPCR probes specific for each layer. This allowed me to make an accurate and specific statement about gene expression in the SHRSP GD18 placenta; where oxidative stress related gene markers were increased in the vascular compartments. The majority of SHRSP placenta presented at GD18 with a blackened ring which encircled the tissue. Further investigation of the placenta using western blot for caspase 3 cleavage determined that this was likely due to increased cell death in the SHRSP placenta. The SHRSP also presented with a loss of one particular placental cell type at GD18: the glycogen cells. These cells could have been the target of cell death in the SHRSP placenta or were utilised early in pregnancy as a source of energy due to the deficient uterine artery blood supply. Blastocyst implantation was not altered but resorption rate was increased between SHRSP and WKY; indicating that the reduction in litter size in the SHRSP was primarily due to late (>GD14) pregnancy loss. Fetal growth was not restricted in SHRSP which led to the conclusion that SHRSP sacrifice part of their litter to deliver a smaller number of healthier pups. Activation of the immune system is a common pathway that has been implicated in the development of both hypertension and adverse pregnancy outcome. In Chapter 2, I proposed that this may be a mechanism of interest in SHRSP pregnancy and measured the pro-inflammatory cytokine, TNFα, as a marker of inflammation in pregnant SHRSP and WKY and in the placentas from these animals. TNFα was up-regulated in maternal plasma and urine from the GD18 SHRSP. In addition, TNFα release was increased from the GD18 SHRSP placenta as was the expression of the pro-inflammatory TNFα receptor 1 (Tnfr1). In order to investigate whether this excess TNFα was detrimental to SHRSP pregnancy, a vehicle-controlled intervention study using etanercept (a monoclonal antibody which works as a TNFα antagonist) was carried out. Etanercept treatment at GD0, 6, 12 and 18 resulted in an improvement in pregnancy outcome in the SHRSP with an increased litter size and reduced resorption rate. Furthermore, there was an improved uterine artery function in GD18 SHRSP treated with etanercept which was associated with an improved uterine artery blood flow over the course of gestation. In Chapter 3, I sought to identify the source of this detrimental excess of TNFα by designing a panel for maternal leukocytes in the blood and placenta at GD18. A population of CD3- CD161+ cells, which are defined as rat natural killer (NK) cells, were increased in number in the SHRSP. Intracellular flow cytometry also identified this cell type as a source of excess TNFα in blood and placenta from pregnant SHRSP. I then went on to evaluate the effects of etanercept treatment on these CD3- CD161+ cells and showed that etanercept reduced the expression of CD161 and the cytotoxic molecule, granzyme B, in the NK cells. Thus, etanercept limits the cytotoxicity and potential damaging effect of these NK cells in the SHRSP placenta. Analysing the urinary peptidome has clinical potential to identify novel pathways involved with disease and/or to develop biomarker panels to aid and stratify diagnosis. In Chapter 4, I utilised the SHRSP as a pre-clinical model to identify novel urinary peptides associated with hypertensive pregnancy. Firstly, a characterisation study was carried out in the kidney of the WKY and SHRSP. Urine samples from WKY and SHRSP taken at pre-pregnancy, mid-pregnancy (GD12) and late pregnancy (GD18) were used in the peptidomic screen. In order to capture peptides which were markers of hypertensive pregnancy from the urinary peptidomic data, I focussed on those that were only changed in a strain dependent manner at GD12 and 18 and not pre-pregnancy. Peptide fragments from the uromodulin protein were identified from this analysis to be increased in pregnant SHRSP relative to pregnant WKY. This increase in uromodulin was validated at the SHRSP kidney level using qPCR. Uromodulin has previously been identified to be a candidate molecule involved in systemic arterial hypertension but not in hypertensive pregnancy thus is a promising target for further study. In summary, we have characterised the SHRSP as the first model of maternal chronic hypertension during pregnancy and identified that inflammation mediated by TNFα and NK cells plays a key role in the pathology. The evidence presented in this thesis establishes the SHRSP as a pre-clinical model for pregnancy research and can be continued into clinical studies in pregnant women with chronic hypertension which remains an area of unmet research need.

Epidural anaesthesia and analgesia and outcome of major surgery: a randomised trial

Background Epidural block is widely used to manage major abdominal surgery and postoperative analgesia, but its risks. and benefits are uncertain. We compared adverse outcomes in high-risk patients managed for major surgery with epidural block or alternative analgesic regimens with general anaesthesia in a multicentre randomised trial. Methods 915 patients undergoing major abdominal surgery with one of nine defined comorbid states to identify high-risk status were randomly assigned intraoperative epidural anaesthesia and postoperative epidural analgesia for 72 h with general anaesthesia (site of epidural selected to provide optimum block) or control. The primary endpoint was death at 30 days or major postsurgical morbidity. Analysis by intention to treat involved 447 patients assigned epidural and 441 control. Findings 255 patients (57.1%) in the epidural group and 268 (60.7%) in the control group had at least one morbidity endpoint or died (p=0.29). Mortality at 30 days was low in both groups (epidural 23 [5.1%], control 19 [4.3%], p=0.67). Only one of eight categories of morbid endpoints in individual systems (respiratory failure) occurred less frequently in patients managed with epidural techniques (23% vs 30%, p=0.02). Postoperative epidural analgesia was associated with lower pain scores during the first 3 postoperative days. There were no major adverse consequences of epidural-catheter insertion. Interpretation Most adverse morbid outcomes in high-risk patients undergoing major abdominal surgery are not reduced by use of combined epidural and general anaesthesia and postoperative epidural analgesia. However, the improvement in analgesia, reduction in respiratory failure, and the low risk of serious adverse consequences suggest that many high-risk patients undergoing major intra-abdominal surgery will receive substantial benefit from combined general and epidural anaesthesia intraoperatively with continuing postoperative epidural analgesia.

Impact of short-term preconceptional exposure to particulate air pollution on treatment outcome in couples undergoing in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF/ET)

To assess the potential effects of short-term exposure to particulate air pollution during follicular phase on clinical, laboratory, and pregnancy outcomes of women undergoing IVF/ET. Retrospective cohort study of 400 first IVF/ET cycles of women exposed to ambient particulate matter during follicular phase. Particulate matter (PM) was categorized into quartiles (Q(1): a parts per thousand currency sign30.48 A mu g/m(3), Q(2): 30.49-42.00 A mu g/m(3), Q(3): 42.01-56.72 A mu g/m(3), and Q(4): > 56.72 A mu g/m(3)). Clinical, laboratory, or treatment variables were not affected by follicular phase PM exposure periods. Women exposed to Q(4) period during the follicular phase of conception cycles had a higher risk of miscarriage (odds ratio, 5.05; 95% confidence interval: 1.04-25.51) when compared to women exposed to Q(1-3) periods. Our results show an association between brief exposure to high levels of ambient PM during the preconceptional period and early pregnancy loss, although no effect of this exposure on clinical, laboratory, and treatment outcomes was observed.

Factors predicting the need for insulin therapy in patients with gestational diabetes mellitus

Aim: To determine the possible factors predicting the insulin requirement in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Method: A total of 294 patients with GDM diagnosed by the 100-g/3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were studied. The following factors were analyzed: maternal age, nulliparity, family history of diabetes, prepregnancy BMI, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, multiple pregnancy, polyhydramnios, gestational age at diagnosis of GDM, smoking, hypertension, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). The association between each factor and the need for insulin therapy was then analyzed individually. The performance of these factors to predict the probability of insulin therapy was estimated using a logistic regression model. Results: Univariate analysis showed a positive correlation between insulin therapy and prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, hypertension, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c (P < 0.05). Prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values and HbA1c were statistically significant variables in the logistic regression model. Conclusions: The probability of insulin therapy can be estimated in pregnant women with GDM based on prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c concentration. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognóstico Obstétrico de Pacientes Portadoras de Diabetes Mellitus Pré-Gestacional

OBJETIVO: Avaliar as alterações epidemiológicas, de perfil clínico e de prognóstico obstétrico em pacientes portadoras de diabetes mellitus pré-gestacional. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospetivo (coorte) de todas as gestações simples, com diagnóstico de diabetes prévio que foram seguidas num centro com apoio perinatal diferenciado entre 2004 e 2011 (n=194). Analisaram-se tendências relacionadas com dados demográficos e variáveis clínicas maternas, dados de indicadores de cuidados pre-concepcionais e durante a gravidez, e de controle metabólico. Dados do parto como a idade gestacional(IG) do parto, via do parto e peso do neonato foram variáveis também estudadas. RESULTADOS: A frequência global de diabetes prévia, durante o período estudado, foi de 4,4 por mil, não se verificando variações significativas durante o período de estudo. Os casos de diabetes tipo 2 permaneceram constantes. Em 67% dos casos o parto foi de termo(máximo de 80% em 2010–2011), registrou-se uma redução significativa dos partos por cesárea eletiva (p=0,03) e na incidência de neonatos considerados grandes para a IG (p=0,04) ao longo dos anos em estudo. Apesar dos bons resultados relacionados com o controle metabólico ao longo da vigilância da gravidez não foi registrada nenhuma melhora ao longo do tempo. Da mesma forma a proporção de gestantes diabéticas com avaliação pre-concepcional permaneceu pouco animadora. CONCLUSÕES: O seguimento de gestantes portadoras de diabetes mellitus em unidades multidisciplinares parece permitir um ajuste metabólico tão precoce quanto possível, de forma a conseguir melhorar o prognóstico obstétrico. A melhora nos cuidados pré-concepcionais continua sendo um desafio.

Relationship between Neutrophil-To-Lymphocyte Ratio and Electrocardiographic Ischemia Grade in STEMI

Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been found to be a good predictor of future adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Changes in the QRS terminal portion have also been associated with adverse outcomes following STEMI. Objective: To investigate the relationship between ECG ischemia grade and NLR in patients presenting with STEMI, in order to determine additional conventional risk factors for early risk stratification. Methods: Patients with STEMI were investigated. The grade of ischemia was analyzed from the ECG performed on admission. White blood cells and subtypes were measured as part of the automated complete blood count (CBC) analysis. Patients were classified into two groups according to the ischemia grade presented on the admission ECG, as grade 2 ischemia (G2I) and grade 3 ischemia (G3I). Results: Patients with G3I had significantly lower mean left ventricular ejection fraction than those in G2I (44.58 ± 7.23 vs. 48.44 ± 7.61, p = 0.001). As expected, in-hospital mortality rate increased proportionally with the increase in ischemia grade (p = 0.036). There were significant differences in percentage of lymphocytes (p = 0.010) and percentage of neutrophils (p = 0.004), and therefore, NLR was significantly different between G2I and G3I patients (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only NLR was the independent variable with a significant effect on ECG ischemia grade (odds ratio = 1.254, 95% confidence interval 1.120–1.403, p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found an association between G3I and elevated NLR in patients with STEMI. We believe that such an association might provide an additional prognostic value for risk stratification in patients with STEMI when combined with standardized risk scores.

Prognostic Value of Pulmonary Vascular Resistance by Magnetic Resonance in Systolic Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Pulmonary hypertension is associated with poor prognosis in heart failure. However, non-invasive diagnosis is still challenging in clinical practice. Objective: We sought to assess the prognostic utility of non-invasive estimation of pulmonary vascular resistances (PVR) by cardiovascular magnetic resonance to predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: Prospective registry of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% and recently admitted for decompensated heart failure during three years. PVRwere calculated based on right ventricular ejection fraction and average velocity of the pulmonary artery estimated during cardiac magnetic resonance. Readmission for heart failure and all-cause mortality were considered as adverse events at follow-up. Results: 105 patients (average LVEF 26.0 ±7.7%, ischemic etiology 43%) were included. Patients with adverse events at long-term follow-up had higher values of PVR (6.93 ± 1.9 vs. 4.6 ± 1.7estimated Wood Units (eWu), p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, PVR ≥ 5 eWu(cutoff value according to ROC curve) was independently associated with increased risk of adverse events at 9 months follow-up (HR2.98; 95% CI 1.12-7.88; p < 0.03). Conclusions: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of PVR ≥ 5.0 Wu is associated with significantly worse clinical outcome at follow-up. Non-invasive estimation of PVR by cardiac magnetic resonance might be useful for risk stratification in HFrEF, irrespective of etiology, presence of late gadolinium enhancement or LVEF.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Mycoplasma hominis in mid-trimester amniotic fluid : relation to pregnangy outcome

RESUME Introduction : Les naissances prématurées compliquent 6-10 % des grossesses dans les pays industrialisés et contribuent de façon notable aux taux de mortalité périnatale et de morbidité néonatale. Il a été démontré que la colonisation bactérienne du liquide amniotique joue un rôle dans l'étiologie des accouchements prématurés spontanés et des ruptures prématurées des membranes. Le but de ce travail était d'évaluer la présence de Mycoplasma hominis dans le liquide amniotique prélevé au 2eme trimestre de grossesse chez des patientes asymptomatiques et de déterminer son association avec une issue défavorable de la grossesse. Matériels et méthodes : Les échantillons de liquide amniotique de 456 patientes ayant subi une amniocentèse trans-abdominale entre les 15eme et I7eme semaines de grossesse pour diverses indications ont été testés par PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) afin d'identifier Mycoplasma hominis. Les produits ainsi amplifiés étaient ensuite détectés par ELISA (Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay). Les données cliniques étaient obtenues après l'accouchement. Résultats : Mycoplasma hominis a été identifié dans 29 (6,4%) des échantillons de liquide amniotique. Le taux de menace d'accouchement prématuré chez les patientes positives pour Mycoplasma hominis (14,3%) était plus élevé que chez les patientes négatives (3,3 %) (p=0,01). De même, les naissances prématurées spontanées avec membranes intactes étaient plus fréquentes chez les patientes positives (10,7%) que chez les patientes négatives (1,9 %) (p=0,02). Le taux de menace d'accouchement prématuré lors d'une grossesse antérieure était plus de trois fois plus élevé chez les patientes positives, cependant ce résultat n'était pas statistiquement significatif. Finalement, la présence du mycoplasme n'était pas corrélée à la gestose, au retard de croissance intra-utérin ou aux anomalies chromosomiques foetales. Conclusions : Les résultats montrent que la présence de Mycoplasma hominis dans le liquide amniotique prélevé entre les 15eme et I7eme semaines d' aménorrhée chez des patientes asymptomatiques est associée à un taux plus élevé de menace d'accouchement prématuré et de naissances prématurées spontanées. La détection de ce microorganisme au 2eme trimestre de la grossesse peut donc identifier les patientes à risque de menace d'accouchement et de naissance prématurées. Abstract Objective: The relationship between detection of Mycoplasma hominis in mid-trimester amniotic fluid and subsequent pregnancy outcome was investigated. Study design: Amniotic fluids from 456 women of European background who underwent a transabdominal amniocentesis at weeks 15-17 of pregnancy were tested for M. hominis by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The amplicons were hybridized to an internal probe and detected by ELISA. Pregnancy outcomes and clinical data were subsequently obtained. Results: M. hominis were identified in 29 (6.4%) of the amniotic fluids. The rate of preterm labor in women positive for M. hominis (14.3%) was higher than in the negative women (3.3%) (p = 0.01). Similarly, a spontaneous preterm birth with intact membranes occurred in 10.7% of the M. hominis-posltive women as opposed to only 1.9% of the negative women (p = 0.02). The presence of this mycoplasma was not correlated with fetal chromosomal aberrations, intrauterine growth restriction or preeclampsia. Conclusions: Detection of M. hominis in second-trimester amniotic fluids can identify women at increased risk for subsequent preterm labor and delivery.

Closeness in relationships as a mediator between sexual abuse in childhood or adolescence and psychopathological outcome in adulthood.

The risk of adverse psychological outcomes in adult victims of childhood and adolescent sexual abuse (CSA) has been documented; however, research on possible mediating variables is still required, namely with a clinical perspective. The attachment literature suggests that secure interpersonal relationships may represent such a variable. Twenty-eight women who had experienced episodes of CSA, and 16 control women, were interviewed using Bremner's Early Trauma Inventory and the DSM-IV Global Assessment of Functioning; they also responded to Collins' Relationship Scales Questionnaire, evaluating adult attachment representations in terms of Closeness, Dependence and Anxiety. Subjects with an experience of severe abuse reported significantly more interpersonal distance in relationships (low index of Closeness) than other subjects. The index of psychopathological functioning was correlated with both the severity of abuse and attachment (low index of Closeness). Regression analysis on the sample of abused women revealed that attachment predicted psychopathology when abuse was controlled for, whereas abuse did not predict psychopathology when attachment was controlled for. Therefore, preserving a capacity for closeness with attachment figures in adulthood appears to mediate the consequences of CSA on subsequent psychopathological outcome.

Epidemiology of small intestinal atresia in Europe: a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of congenital small intestinal atresia (SIA) has not been well studied. This study describes the presence of additional anomalies, pregnancy outcomes, total prevalence and association with maternal age in SIA cases in Europe. METHODS: Cases of SIA delivered during January 1990 to December 2006 notified to 20 EUROCAT registers formed the population-based case series. Prevalence over time was estimated using multilevel Poisson regression, and heterogeneity between registers was evaluated from the random component of the intercept. RESULTS: In total 1133 SIA cases were reported among 5126, 164 registered births. Of 1044 singleton cases, 215 (20.6%) cases were associated with a chromosomal anomaly. Of 829 singleton SIA cases with normal karyotype, 221 (26.7%) were associated with other structural anomalies. Considering cases with normal karyotype, the total prevalence per 10 000 births was 1.6 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.7) for SIA, 0.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.0) for duodenal atresia and 0.7 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.8) for jejunoileal atresia (JIA). There was no significant trend in SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA prevalence over time (RR=1.0, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.0 to 1.0 for each), but SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied by geographical location (p=0.03 and p=0.04, respectively). There was weak evidence of an increased risk of SIA in mothers aged less than 20 years compared with mothers aged 20 to 29 years (RR=1.3, 95% CrI: 1.0 to 1.8). CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence of a temporal trend in the prevalence of SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA, although SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied significantly between registers.

Report on Perinatal Statistics for 1999

The principal aim of the National Perinatal Reporting Scheme (NPRS) is the provision of national statistics on perinatal events. Since 1999, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has been contracted by the Department of Health and Children to oversee the collection, processing, management and reporting of data submitted to the NPRS. In this report, data on pregnancy outcomes, with particular reference to perinatal mortality and important aspects of perinatal care, are presented for 1999. In addition, descriptive social and biological characteristics of mothers giving birth and babies born in 1999 are recorded. Download document here

Saving Mothers' Lives 2003-2005

This, the seventh Report of the Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the United Kingdom (UK) enquires into maternal deaths and has a new title, "Saving Mothers' Lives". The change has been made to more accurately reflect the purpose of this, the longest running example of a maternal death review in the world. The Enquiry's aim is to stimulate and promote beneficial clinical actions and health and social service changes that will save yet more mothers' and babies' lives in future. By acting on the recommendations and results contained in the Report, the inequalities in pregnancy outcomes that currently exist between the most advantaged and most vulnerable and excluded mothers and babies in society should reduce, as should the numbers of those who suffer the consequences of severe morbidity.In addition, and perhaps of most importance, all mothers, infants and families will benefit from accessiblematernity services whose staff are proud to provide them with the safest and best possible individualised care that meets all their medical and other needs.

Comparison of 2 frailty indexes for prediction of falls, disability, fractures, and death in older women.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, as defined by the index derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS index), predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older adults. Use of this index, however, is impractical in clinical practice. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6701 women 69 years or older to compare the predictive validity of a simple frailty index with the components of weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times without using arms, and reduced energy level (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF index]) with that of the CHS index with the components of unintentional weight loss, poor grip strength, reduced energy level, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity. Women were classified as robust, of intermediate status, or frail using each index. Falls were reported every 4 months for 1 year. Disability (> or =1 new impairment in performing instrumental activities of daily living) was ascertained at 4(1/2) years, and fractures and deaths were ascertained during 9 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and -2 log likelihood statistics were compared for models containing the CHS index vs the SOF index. RESULTS: Increasing evidence of frailty as defined by either the CHS index or the SOF index was similarly associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Frail women had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio, 2.4), disability (odds ratio, 2.2-2.8), nonspine fracture (hazard ratio, 1.4-1.5), hip fracture (hazard ratio, 1.7-1.8), and death (hazard ratio, 2.4-2.7) (P < .001 for all models). The AUC comparisons revealed no differences between models with the CHS index vs the SOF index in discriminating falls (AUC = 0.61 for both models; P = .66), disability (AUC = 0.64; P = .23), nonspine fracture (AUC = 0.55; P = .80), hip fracture (AUC = 0.63; P = .64), or death (AUC = 0.72; P = .10). Results were similar when -2 log likelihood statistics were compared. CONCLUSION: The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture, and death as well as the more complex CHS index and may provide a useful definition of frailty to identify older women at risk of adverse health outcomes in clinical practice.

A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.