Desenvolvimento de índices de preços para infraestrutura no Brasil

Essa dissertação apresenta um conjunto de índices de preços de infraestrutura desenvolvidos com o propósito de fornecer indicadores específicos para este setor de atividades no Brasil. Foi realizado um levantamento dos principais índices dessa natureza produzidos no Brasil e no mundo. As principais referências internacionais foram os países membros da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico – OCDE e da União Europeia. A partir dessa análise, foram identificadas três questões fundamentais para o desenvolvimento do trabalho: i) qual é o conjunto de obras de infraestrutura a ser representado pelos índices e como delimitar esse conjunto?; ii) os índices de preços produzidos atualmente no Brasil representam parcial ou totalmente esse conjunto?; e iii) como desenvolver um conjunto de índices, construídos sobre a mesma base metodológica, de abrangência nacional, capazes de representar adequadamente tal conjunto de obras? Como resultado do trabalho, foi desenvolvido um conjunto dez índices de preços de infraestrutura, que contempla todos os requisitos listados acima. Além da base metodológica para construção dos índices, foram calculadas suas respectivas séries históricas para o período de dezembro/2000 (base = 100) a fevereiro/2015, a partir das quais os índices são analisados sob diversos aspectos como, por exemplo, através de análise comparativa dos dez índices entre si e análise do comportamento dos índices ao longo do tempo, considerando o contexto macroeconômico através da observação de indicadores selecionados.

Uma análise descritiva do índice de desemprego no Brasil

Em meio a um cenário de desaceleração do PIB e às incertezas sobre a inflação seria esperado que a taxa de desemprego aumentasse. Contudo, o mercado de trabalho apresentou resultados bastante satisfatórios nos últimos anos. Segundo dados do IBGE, no triênio 2011-2013, esse índice permaneceu, com uma certa “estabilidade”, no patamar de 6%. Ademais, é possível encontrar diferentes índices a partir de diversas fontes disponíveis para o mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Neste contexto, o presente estudo busca destacar as principais diferenças e semelhanças de cada uma das fontes de informação e avaliar a redução da taxa de desemprego ocorrida ao longo de mais de 10 anos. Para tanto, serão utilizadas as bases de dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios de 2001 a 2013 a fim de analisar como se comporta a taxa de desemprego para os diferentes grupos componentes da força de trabalho. Os resultados indicam que os fatores populacionais foram mais importantes que os fatores econômicos, visto que a mudança na composição de faixa etária da PEA foi responsável por 25% da queda da taxa de desemprego de 2005/2006 para 2012/2013.

A intervenção do estado na economia: um estudo de caso do setor elétrico

Estuda-se a intervenção do Estado na economia através da regulação, tendo como objeto de análise o setor elétrico brasileiro. O presente estudo tem como objetivo verificar de que forma o Estado, desde a promulgação da Constituição de 1988, buscou cumprir os princípios estabelecidos na Ordem Econômica constitucional e exercer a sua função de ente regulador, fiscalizador, planejador e indutor do crescimento econômico, no setor elétrico. Analisa-se a reforma do Estado pensada pelo ex-Ministro Bresser Pereira e a inclusão de empresas do setor elétrico no Plano Nacional de Desestatização. Observa-se que o processo de privatização permanece inacabado nos segmentos da geração e da transmissão. Investiga-se a instituição do MAE e a criação do produtor independente de energia elétrica, no contexto de uma reforma que pretendia encaminhar o setor elétrico para o livre mercado. Estuda-se a crise de racionamento e a mudança de estratégia do Governo, cuja prioridade passou a ser um maior planejamento central que garantisse a segurança energética e a expansão da geração e transmissão. Analisa-se as diferenças entre o ACL e o ACR, bem como a formação do preço da energia elétrica em cada um e conclui-se, por meio da leitura de precedentes do CADE, que trata-se do mesmo mercado relevante na dimensão produto. Investiga-se as mudanças trazidas pela MP-579 e de que forma a intervenção do Estado no setor elétrico aumentou, e os impactos que isso trouxe. Conclui-se que, a partir da edição da MP-579, a intervenção do Estado no setor elétrico aumentou com o objetivo de controlar os preços e garantir a segurança energética, mas que as mudanças regulatórias não foram bem sucedidas em manter e a tarifa da energia paga pelo consumidor final em patamares baixos, tampouco em garantir a oferta de energia elétrica suficiente para cobrir a demanda das distribuidoras.

Capitalismo de estado e inovação: facetas da relação entre estado e iniciativa privada no desenvolvimento nacional

While countries managed to rapidly rise and recover economically, Brazilian social indicators have advanced at short pace in the last decades. Although millions of Brazilians have recently left poverty, Brazil still has a long way to go regarding its socioeconomic development. Circa one fifth of the population is still considered functionally illiterate, basic education has one of the poorest performances in the world, the country has no top-level universities nor produces technology or patents at relevant levels. This paper, at first, analyses how the interaction between government and private agents influenced Brazil’s industrial and economic development, identifying the existence of bonds based on the exchange of private interests that at great extension kept public policies from reaching goals of national interest – the so called crony capitalism. Secondly, the paper verifies how development policies based on the promotion of innovative companies and segments of the industry may positively impact broad socioeconomic development. The paper delves specifically into the cooperation between universities and industry as a development tool. Enterprises and universities, guided by their endogenous interests, may be combined for the structuring of a national innovation system. While universities are fundamentally interested in promoting knowledge accumulation, enterprises are willing to invest financial capital in universities in exchange for the economic exploitation of products developed within the academic environment and direct access to its human capital. Lastly, the paper identifies the legal and cultural barriers and advances of this mechanism in Brazil. It verifies that, notwithstanding the institutional advance promoted by the Law of Innovation to the university-enterprise cooperation in Brazil, the law wasn’t entirely capable of eliminating the legal uncertainty of this relationship and capturing in an efficient way the interests of the agents involved. Recently, federal law n. 12.863/2013 officially offered universities the option of bypassing problems related to public law by regulating support foundations, which conceives greater certainty and simplicity to the cooperation. There are, however, remaining uncertainties regarding the norms to be edited by the executive power, as well as conflicts of interest linked to the property rights over patents resulting from this kind of cooperation. The paper verifies, moreover, the existence of ideological resistance to this tool within universities, in such a way that it is unlikely that those relationships develop in a systematic way throughout the country without further engagement from the government and its executive and legislative bodies.

Análise do crescimento económico e do desenvolvimento da Madeira (período de 1997 a 2008)

Nos finais do século XX e na primeira década do século XXI, o crescimento económico e o desenvolvimento são uma das questões importantes que se colocam sobre a Região Autónoma da Madeira (RAM)! Após 2 acontecimentos marcantes para o país e para a região, que foram a revolução de 25 de Abril de 1974 e a introdução do regime democrático em Portugal com a entrada em vigor da CRP1 em 25 de Abril de 1976 e a adesão de Portugal em 1 de Janeiro de 1986 à CEE2, actual UE3, que marcaram de forma indelével, quer o país, quer a região, o presente estudo pretende analisar através de um conjunto de indicadores, o crescimento económico e o desenvolvimento da RAM face às restantes 6 regiões NUTS II portuguesas. O crescimento económico é analisado através da evolução do PIBpc4 a preços constantes em euros. O desenvolvimento é analisado através de um conjunto de indicadores de natureza económica, social, cultural e ambiental. Serão objecto de análise na medição do desenvolvimento o Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano e as suas componentes, o Poder de Compra per capita e em percentagem e o Índice Sintético de Desenvolvimento Regional e as suas componentes. Posteriormente, analisaremos a convergência (positiva ou negativa) e a divergência (positiva ou negativa) dos indicadores de crescimento e de desenvolvimento da RAM face à média nacional. Finalmente, apresentamos algumas conclusões, tendo em consideração algumas limitações, nomeadamente ao nível dos dados disponíveis. Pretendemos fazer um estudo sobre o crescimento económico e o desenvolvimento da RAM, que seja um ponto de partida para futuros estudos e aprofundamentos destas temáticas.

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Causas de variação nos preços de bovinos nelore elite no Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Efeitos de diferentes frações inspiradas de oxigênio no índice biespectral em cães submetidos à infusão contínua de propofol

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Paradigma constitucional brasileiro da livre concorrência e da defesa do consumidor face às estruturas de poder no mercado

The Federal Constitution of 1988, when taking care of the economical order, denotes special concern in the abuses of the economical power and the disloyal competition. The mark to mediate of all this is, in fact, the defense and the consumer's protection, once this is final addressee of whatever if it puts at the consumption market. The coming of the Law 8.078/90, Code of Protection and Defense of the Consumer, inaugurates a time of effective concern with the homogeneous individual interests originating from of the consumption relationships. In this point, the focus of main to face of the present work lives, in other words, the protection of the right to the individual property, especially manifests in the exercise of the trade freedom that keeps direct relationship with the respective social function the one that is destined. The code of the consumer's defense doesn't just take care of this, but also of the other star of the relationships of the consumption. When affirming in the interruption VI of the art. 4th that the national politics of those relationships, finds ballast in the prohibition and repression efficient of all of the abuses committed in the consumption relationships, keeping inherent relationship-causality in the economical order, sculpted for the article 170 in the Constitution of 1988. In the generic plan, the mark of the present work is to question concerning the limits of the trade freedom and previsible collisions with protection norms and the consumer's defense, as well as factual convergences of those small systems, especially in what he/she refers to the innate interests to the suppliers. In the specific plan, we aspirated to identify the protection device-commands to the actors of the trade relationship, capable to guarantee the free competition in a global economy of market, seeking especially the Well-being, for soon afterwards, in an analytical perspective, to discover the possible applications that it holds the Federal Constitution, in headquarters of economical freedoms. It was observed that the consumer today doesn't need only of laws that their needs, fruit of the vulnerability that it is him/her meditate innate. He/she lacks, yes, of effective mechanisms that prevent lesions that can be them impinged by the suppliers at the time in that you/they are useful to repair the damages when happened, punishing the author of the damage

A revenda de combustível e os limites constitucionais para a sua regulação: uma análise aplicada aos aspectos concorrênciais e ao controle de preços

The gas retail represents the end of a section of the oil and natural gas derivative chain, for it is at this stage where the commercialization of those merchandises takes place towards the costumers. This process involves an enormous amount of economic agents, which reflects on an activity of great influence on the citizen's everyday. By the time of the gas retail price liberalization, in 2002, there were great expectations towards that measure, for the insertion of that segment in a competitive market was likely to create a decrease in prices. As there was not a drastic drop off in cost, the question was no longer the price itself, but, predominantly, the conduct taken by the economic agents that operate the market. Not in vain, the segment introduces a greater number of different procedures combined with the organs that compose the Brazilian System of Competition Protection. What is understood, however, is that many of these complaints are made in a lightly way, without a proper analysis of the market and its practices, that being why, in this paper, evidences the causes of these complaints and explained what, in fact, occurs in this market. Also, the organs that protect the free initiative in the sector use different methods to assess anticompetitive practices, which are counterproductive on the combat of anticompetitive practice, that being why the present paper analyzes the used methods on a critic perspective, choosing one which is believed to be the most adequate. The present work also tries to present the gas retail prices on a constitutional, free competition, free initiative and consumers defense perspective, analyzing the competition s aspects on the gas market; the shaping of the gas prices; the market boundaries; the anti-competitive practices under the gas market; and analyze the possibility, according to the defined economic standards in the constitutional text of existing a greater control or gas price indexing and/or regulation which limits the distributors and resellers profit on gas. Still, in consequence of this analysis, a study on Natal s market behavior will be developed in its competitive feature. That being said, moreover being a theoretical-descriptive study, data and statistics gathered is used, which will lead, willing to grasp an experiential study on a few aspects of the Potiguar gas retail market

Concentração da posse da terra e o programa nacional de crédito fundiário - uma análise para o estado do Rio Grande do Norte, 2006 - 2012

O objetivo do trabalho é propor um estudo sobre a relação do Programa Nacional de Crédito Fundiário - PNCF, no estado do Rio Grande do Norte, e sua concentração fundiária. Ou seja, se o PNCF está sendo direcionado, para as microrregiões que apresentam maior índice de concentração, de acordo com o índice de Gini, e se as áreas adquiridas através do crédito fundiário estão emergindo nestas microrregiões. Para isto, o estudo levantou a hipótese de que o PNCF no estado do Rio Grande do Norte não está sendo conduzida, de modo a reduzir a concentração fundiária, dentre as microrregiões do estado. Ou seja, não existe correlação entre o índice de Gini, da concentração fundiária, e as áreas adquiridas através do programa. Além disso, o trabalho buscou realizar uma discussão da literatura sobre os programas de reforma agrária assistida pelo mercado. Apresentando os autores que são exaltadores do modelo e das suas potencialidades, atrelando as causas dos problemas levantados como sendo de ordem técnica e operacional, onde os principais autores desta linha são: Van Zyl, Kirsten & Binswanger, (1996), Deininger & Binswanger, (1999). Têm-se também a apresentação da posição dos autores adeptos as políticas fundiárias pautadas na dinâmica e liberação dos mercados de terras, mas que visam contribuir com estudos que permitam uma redução para o custo elevado e a sua incapacidade de abarcar a esfera social, em decorrência do pagamento á vista e a preço de mercado aos donos das terras, são eles: De Janvry & Sadoulet (2002), Gordillo (2002), Banerjee (1999), Jaramillo (1998) e Burki & Perry (1997). Todavia, apresentou-se a corrente de autores que ressalta a natureza socialmente agressiva da Reforma Agrária Assistida pelo Mercado (RAAM), sendo os seus principais contribuidores: El-Ghonemy (2001); Barros, Schwartzman & Sauer (2003); Borras Jr. (2006, 2003 e 2003a); Garoz et al. (2005); Sauer & Pereira (2006); Pereira (2005, 2006 e 2010); Sauer (2010); Lahiff, Borras Jr. & Kay (2007). Em sequência, o trabalho apresentou a transição e características dos programas de acesso à terra, no Brasil, a partir da década de 1990, bem como, alguns indicadores do PNCF, no Brasil e o estado do Rio Grande do Norte. Apresentou-se também os indicadores da concentração fundiária, no Brasil e no estado. Através dos dados do Censo Agropecuário de 2006 foi possível calcular o índice de Gini da distribuição fundiária nas microrregiões no estado do Rio Grande do Norte. Com os dados fornecidos pela Secretaria de Estado de Assuntos Fundiários e de Apoio à Reforma Agrária - SEARA mostrou-se a distribuição das linhas de crédito do PNCF e as áreas adquiridas, entre os anos de 2006 e 2012. Por fim, o valor do coeficiente de correlação simples (r) igual a (0,2865), que com base no teste bilateral da distribuição de t de Student chegou-se no resultado para T calculado no valor de (1,2333), que ao ser comparado com o valor de T crítico igual a (2,898), com 17 graus de liberdade, a um nível de significância de 1%, pode aceitar a hipótese de partida, ou seja, que o PNCF não estava sendo direcionado para diminuir a concentração fundiária no estado

Reconfigurações industriais das regiões metropolitanas do Nordeste: uma análise a partir do emprego formal

Industrial development experienced by Brazil from the 1950s, changed the concentration of population in the country. The process of development of domestic industry, concentrated in urban areas, crowded growing portion of the population.The Southeast region during the first stage of industrialization driven by the state, with the implementation of Plan goals, captained the major industrial projects implemented in the period and became the main industrial center of the country.In the decade from 1960 to 1980 the state action was marked by numerous regional development projects, softening the industrial concentration and Brazilian investment redirected to the Northeast.The second National Development Plan implemented in the 1970s led to major investments Northeast.This period marked the widespread urban growth and institutionalization of the first metropolitan areas in Brazil.The change of this developmental process is altered with the fiscal and financial crisis of the state in the 1980s and 1990s and spending cuts aimed at national development, reorienting the economy to liberal policies of economic liberalization and reduction of activity in the economy.Industrial policy was relegated to local development plans from the 1990s to the federating units fitting the wide use of tax incentives, the "war tax" to the continued industrialization process.In this context of the national economy work seeks to analyze the industrial setting in the metropolitan areas of Fortaleza, Recife and Salvador between 1995 and 2010.Although the metropolitan areas of Fortaleza, Recife and Salvador are the main urban centers of the Northeast, responsible for the advancement of industrial development, reconfigurations occurred between 1995 and 2010 by changing the level of industrial specialization built by regional division of labor in these regions.The work will be carried out by the method of descriptive analysis of the literature review on regional and urban development.Constitute quantitative method as the secondary data analysis of formal employment from the Annual Social Information (RAIS) Ministry of Labour and Employment (MTE).Using data RAIS / MTE analyzes the industrial specialization index using the Locational Quotient (LQ).Thus, it is assumed as a parameter analysis QL> 1, when the region has become specialized in a particular sector or QL <1, when the region does not have expertise in industrial sector analyzed.The conclusion of study indicates that there was in these metropolitan areas maintained the same bias hub.Fiscal policies, the states, was not successful in diversifying the productive structure and the Northeast region itself.This result is demonstrated by the need and dependence on state investments in the region to promote development.Industrial policies of recent years have been positive to meet the objectives of employment generation, but there must be specific policies for better diversification of production, in addition to integrating the economy of the Northeast sector and regionally

Fatores que afetam a satisfação e a fidelidade do consumidor: um estudo com usuários de calçado esportivo (tênis), na Região Sul da cidade de Natal

This paper aims to investigate the factors that influence the satisfaction and fidelity of tennis´s users with the region southern city of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte as the area of analyzing , using the national satisfaction index models as a tool to study. In this study was used the questionnaire as a tool for collecting data based on the new Norwegian customer satisfaction barometer model proposed by Johnson et. al. (2001). The data collection took place during the months of May and June 2008, when 450 tennis´s users were interviewed. The main results obtained by multiple regression analysis and logistic regression showed that the users' satisfaction with the tennis´s brand is influenced by the quality, comfort, material used in the manufacture and price, while fidelity is potentized by the image of the brand and the satisfaction degree with the user's tennis and with the brand of tennis. In relation to user satisfaction with the tennis, that satisfaction is influenced by the quality, comfort, weight and the material used, while fidelity is potentized by the satisfaction with the tennis´s brand, with the possibility of paying the same amount again and the emotional commitment. As the processing of claims there was no direct influence on satisfaction and consumers fidelity due to the low number complaints

Gestão da satisfação e fidelidade do cliente : um estudo dos fatores que influenciam na satisfação e fidelidade dos clientes corporativos de telefonia celular

The competition in the telecommunications industry has grown in Brazil since the privatization, forcing companies that are active in the market to a growing commitment to quality products and services in order to survive. In this context, this work aims to understand the main factors that influence the degree of satisfaction exists in respect of a mobile operator with its corporate customers. The research covered theoretical concepts and analytical models of quality management system and models of indices related to the measurement of customer satisfaction. For the field research was carried out in a practical application of the main approaches based on this thesis by a case study in corporate segment, through a questionnaire applied to 10 consultants and 40 corporate customers of that company. Comparing the results of research with the consultants and corporate clients there is the concern of respondents to the indicators that comprise the constructs of customer satisfaction, commitment calculated, the price index and the handling of complaints, denoting the dissatisfaction of the general assessment for corporate customers with the carrier, against its current expectations. It is concluded that the mobile operator of the telecommunications industry have a big challenge, after ten years of privatization and consequently the period of rapid expansion of customer base and with the depleted, retain corporate customers as highly strategic, thus avoiding that migrate to other companies. We emphasize the need for further research and analysis of different approaches through research and using the same models to specifically evaluate and measure customer satisfaction of mobile enterprise, to adjust the model to the national market. Finally, we suggest the creation of an effective customer loyalty program with a strategy of relationship and specific to the corporate sector of mobile telephony