Ratio-dependent response of a temperate Australian estuarine system to sustained nitrogen loading

Classical resource- and the less studied ratio-dependent models of predator–prey relationships provide divergent predictions as to the sustained ecological effects of bottom-up forcing. While resource-dependent models, which consider only instantaneous prey density in modelling predator responses, predict community responses that are dependent on the number of trophic levels in a system, ratio-dependent models, which consider the number of prey per consumer, predict proportional increase in each level irrespective of chain length. The two models are only subtly different for systems with two or three trophic levels but in the case of four trophic levels, predict opposite effects of enrichment on primary producers. Despite the poor discriminatory power of tests of the models in systems with two or three trophic levels, field tests in estuarine and marine systems with four trophic levels have been notably absent. Sampling of phytoplankton, macroinvertebrates, invertebrate-feeding fishes, piscivorous fishes in Kooloonbung Creek, Hastings River estuary, eastern Australia, subject to over 20 years of sewage discharge, revealed increased abundances in all four trophic levels at the disturbed location relative to control sites. Increased abundance of phytoplankton at the disturbed site was counter to the predictions of resource-dependent models, which posit a reduction in the first trophic level in response to enrichment. By contrast, the increase in abundance of this first trophic level and the proportionality of increases in abundances of each of the four trophic groups to nitrogen loading provided strong support for ratio dependency. This first evidence of ratio dependence in an estuarine system with four trophic levels not only demonstrates the applicability of ecological theory which seeks to simplify the complexity of systems, but has implications for management. Although large nutrient inputs frequently induce mortality of invertebrates and fish, we have shown that smaller inputs may in fact enhance biomass of all trophic levels.

Two tests of approach-iron golf skill and their ability to predict tournament performance

The aim of this study was to investigate the convergent and predictive validity of two skill tests that examine the ability of golfers to hit accurate approach-iron shots. Twenty-four high-level golfers (handicap = 2.6 ± 1.7) performed the Nine-Ball Skills Test (assesses the ability to shape/control ball trajectory with high accuracy) and the Approach-Iron Skill Test (assesses the ability to hit straight shots from varying distances with high accuracy). Participants then completed at least eight rounds of tournament golf over the following 90 days and reported an indicator of approach-iron accuracy (per cent error index). A moderate correlation (r = 0.50, P < 0.05) was noted between scores for both tests. Generalised estimating equations, using two covariates (lie of the ball and distance to hole), were used to determine model fit and the amount of variance explained for tournament per cent error index. Results showed that the Approach-Iron Skill Test was the slightly stronger predictor of on-course per cent error index. With both test scores considered together, a minimal amount of additional variance was explained. These findings suggest that either of the tests used individually or combined may be used to predict tournament approach iron performance in high-level golfers.

Fuzzy portfolio allocation models through a new risk measure and fuzzy sharpe ratio

A new portfolio risk measure that is the uncertainty of portfolio fuzzy return is introduced in this paper. Beyond the well-known Sharpe ratio (i.e., the reward-to-variability ratio) in modern portfolio theory, we initiate the so-called fuzzy Sharpe ratio in the fuzzy modeling context. In addition to the introduction of the new risk measure, we also put forward the reward-to-uncertainty ratio to assess the portfolio performance in fuzzy modeling. Corresponding to two approaches based on TM and TW fuzzy arithmetic, two portfolio optimization models are formulated in which the uncertainty of portfolio fuzzy returns is minimized, while the fuzzy Sharpe ratio is maximized. These models are solved by the fuzzy approach or by the genetic algorithm (GA). Solutions of the two proposed models are shown to be dominant in terms of portfolio return uncertainty compared with those of the conventional mean-variance optimization (MVO) model used prevalently in the financial literature. In terms of portfolio performance evaluated by the fuzzy Sharpe ratio and the reward-to-uncertainty ratio, the model using TW fuzzy arithmetic results in higher performance portfolios than those obtained by both the MVO and the fuzzy model, which employs TM fuzzy arithmetic. We also find that using the fuzzy approach for solving multiobjective problems appears to achieve more optimal solutions than using GA, although GA can offer a series of well-diversified portfolio solutions diagrammed in a Pareto frontier.

Nonparametric rank tests for non-stationary panels

We develop a set of nonparametric rank tests for non-stationary panels based on multivariate variance ratios which use untruncated kernels. As such, the tests do not require the choice of tuning parameters associated with bandwidth or lag length and also do not require choices with respect to numbers of common factors. The tests allow for unrestricted cross-sectional dependence and dynamic heterogeneity among the units of the panel, provided simply that a joint functional central limit theorem holds for the panel of differenced series. We provide a discussion of the relationships between our setting and the settings for which first- and second generation panel unit root tests are designed. In Monte Carlo simulations we illustrate the small-sample performance of our tests when they are used as panel unit root tests under the more restrictive DGPs for which panel unit root tests are typically designed, and for more general DGPs we also compare the small-sample performance of our nonparametric tests to parametric rank tests. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration by testing for income convergence among countries.

Robustness of stationary tests under long-memory alternatives

This paper investigates the presence of long memory in financiaI time series using four test statistics: V/S, KPSS, KS and modified R/S. There has been a large amount of study on the long memory behavior in economic and financiaI time series. However, there is still no consensus. We argue in this paper that spurious short-term memory may be found due to the incorrect use of data-dependent bandwidth to estimating the longrun variance. We propose a partially adaptive lag truncation procedure that is robust against the presence of long memory under the alternative hypothesis and revisit several economic and financiaI time series using the proposed bandwidth choice. Our results indicate the existence of spurious short memory in real exchange rates when Andrews' formula is employed, but long memory is detected when the proposed lag truncation procedure is used. Using stock market data, we also found short memory in returns and long memory in volatility.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models

This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.

Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Panel Data on G7 Countries

Using the theoretical framework of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), we perform an empirical investigation on how widespread is the predictability of cay {a modi ed consumption-wealth ratio { once we consider a set of important countries from a global perspective. We chose to work with the set of G7 countries, which represent more than 64% of net global wealth and 46% of global GDP at market exchange rates. We evaluate the forecasting performance of cay using a panel-data approach, since applying cointegration and other time-series techniques is now standard practice in the panel-data literature. Hence, we generalize Lettau and Ludvigson's tests for a panel of important countries. We employ macroeconomic and nancial quarterly data for the group of G7 countries, forming an unbalanced panel. For most countries, data is available from the early 1990s until 2014Q1, but for the U.S. economy it is available from 1981Q1 through 2014Q1. Results of an exhaustive empirical investigation are overwhelmingly in favor of the predictive power of cay in forecasting future stock returns and excess returns.

Minimizing inter-genotypic competition effects to predict genetic values and selection in forestry genetic tests

The effect of competition is an important source of variation in breeding experiments. This study aimed to compare the selection of plants of open-pollinated families of Eucalyptus with and without the use of competition covariables. Genetic values were determined for each family and tree and for the traits height, diameter at breast height and timber volume in a randomized block design, resulting in the variance components, genetic parameters, selection gains, effective size and selection coincidence, with and without the use of covariables. Intergenotypic competition is an important factor of environmental variation. The use of competition covariables generally reduces the estimates of variance components and influences genetic gains in the studied traits. Intergenotypic competition biases the selection of open-pollinated eucalypt progenies, and can result in an erroneous choice of superior genotypes; the inclusion of covariables in the model reduces this influence.

Utilização de modelos de regressão aleatória para produção de leite no dia do controle, com diferentes estruturas de variâncias residuais

Foram utilizados quatorze modelos de regressão aleatória, para ajustar 86.598 dados de produção de leite no dia do controle de 2.155 primeiras lactações de vacas Caracu, truncadas aos 305 dias. Os modelos incluíram os efeitos fixos de grupo contemporâneo e a covariável idade da vaca ao parto. Uma regressão ortogonal de ordem cúbica foi usada para modelar a trajetória média da população. Os efeitos genéticos aditivos e de ambiente permanente foram modelados por meio de regressões aleatórias, usando polinômios ortogonais de Legendre, de ordens cúbicas. Diferentes estruturas de variâncias residuais foram testadas e consideradas por meio de classes contendo 1, 10, 15 e 43 variâncias residuais e de funções de variâncias (FV) usando polinômios ordinários e ortogonais, cujas ordens variaram de quadrática até sêxtupla. Os modelos foram comparados usando o teste da razão de verossimilhança, o Critério de Informação de Akaike e o Critério de Informação Bayesiano de Schwar. Os testes indicaram que, quanto maior a ordem da função de variâncias, melhor o ajuste. Dos polinômios ordinários, a função de sexta ordem foi superior. Os modelos com classes de variâncias residuais foram aparentemente superiores àqueles com funções de variância. O modelo com homogeneidade de variâncias foi inadequado. O modelo com 15 classes heterogêneas foi o que melhor ajustou às variâncias residuais, entretanto, os parâmetros genéticos estimados foram muito próximos para os modelos com 10, 15 ou 43 classes de variâncias ou com FV de sexta ordem.

Estimation models of variance components for farrowing interval in swine

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal avaliar a importância da inclusão dos efeitos genético materno, comum de leitegada e de ambiente permanente no modelo de estimação de componentes de variância para a característica intervalo de parto em fêmeas suínas. Foram utilizados dados que consistiam de 1.013 observações de fêmeas Dalland (C-40), registradas em dois rebanhos. As estimativas dos componentes de variância foram realizadas pelo método da máxima verossimilhança restrita livre de derivadas. Foram testados oito modelos, que continham os efeitos fixos (grupos de contemporâneo e covariáveis) e os efeitos genético aditivo direto e residual, mas variavam quanto à inclusão dos efeitos aleatórios genético materno, ambiental comum de leitegada e ambiental permanente. O teste da razão de verossimilhança (LR) indicou a não necessidade da inclusão desses efeitos no modelo. No entanto observou-se que o efeito ambiental permanente causou mudança nas estimativas de herdabilidade, que variaram de 0,00 a 0,03. Conclui-se que os valores de herdabilidade obtidos indicam que esta característica não apresentaria ganho genético como resposta à seleção. O efeito ambiental comum de leitegada e o genético materno não apresentaram influência sobre esta característica. Já o ambiental permanente, mesmo sem ter sido significativo o seu efeito pelo LR, deve ser considerado nos modelos genéticos para essa característica, pois sua presença causou mudança nas estimativas da variância genética aditiva.

Estimação de componentes de co-variância para pesos corporais do nascimento aos 365 dias de idade de bovinos Guzerá empregando-se modelos de regressão aleatória

Um total de 19.770 pesos corporais de bovinos Guzerá, do nascimento aos 365 dias de idade, pertencentes ao banco de dados da Associação Brasileira dos Criadores de Zebu (ABCZ) foi analisado com os objetivos de comparar diferentes estruturas de variâncias residuais, considerando 1, 18, 28 e 53 classes residuais e funções de variância de ordens quadrática a quíntica; e estimar funções de co-variância de diferentes ordens para os efeitos genético aditivo direto, genético materno, de ambiente permanente de animal e de mãe e parâmetros genéticos para os pesos corporais usando modelos de regressão aleatória. Os efeitos aleatórios foram modelados por regressões polinomiais em escala de Legendre com ordens variando de linear a quártica. Os modelos foram comparados pelo teste de razão de verossimilhança e pelos critérios de Informação de Akaike e de Informação Bayesiano de Schwarz. O modelo com 18 classes heterogêneas foi o que melhor se ajustou às variâncias residuais, de acordo com os testes estatísticos, porém, o modelo com função de variância de quinta ordem também mostrou-se apropriado. Os valores de herdabilidade direta estimados foram maiores que os encontrados na literatura, variando de 0,04 a 0,53, mas seguiram a mesma tendência dos estimados pelas análises unicaracterísticas. A seleção para peso em qualquer idade melhoraria o peso em todas as idades no intervalo estudado.

Genetic parameters for test-day yield of milk, fat and protein in buffaloes estimated by random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Flexibility and Torsional Strength of ProTaper and ProTaper Universal Rotary Instruments Assessed by Mechanical Tests

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparative analysis of cell proliferation ratio in oral lichen planus, epithelial dysplasia and oral squamous cell carcinoma

Background: Although oral lichen planus has been classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a potentially malignant disorder, such classification is still the target of much controversy. Aim: To evaluate the cell proliferation rate in oral lichen planus, comparing it to the rate observed in epithelial dysplasia and oral squamous cell carcinoma, aiming at indications which might indicate the potential for malignant transformation. Material and Methods: Twenty-four cases of each lesion were submitted to the streptoavidin-biotin and AgNOR technique to evaluate the immunohistochemical expression of PCNA and the mean NORs/ nucleus, respectively. Results: Positivity for PCNA was observed in 58.33% of oral lichen planus cases, 83.33% of epithelial dysplasia cases and 91.67% of oral squamous cell carcinoma cases. Chi-squared test showed that the number of positive cases for PCNA was significantly lower in oral lichen planus than in oral squamous cell carcinoma (p<0.05). No significant statistical difference between oral lichen planus and epithelial dysplasia (p>0.05) and between the epithelial dysplasia and oral squamous cell carcinoma (p>0.05) was observed. The mean NORs/ nucleus in oral lichen planus, epithelial dysplasia and oral squamous cell carcinoma were 1.74 +/- 0.32, 2.42 +/- 0.62 e 2.41 +/- 0.61, respectively. Variance analysis (ANOVA) revealed significant statistical difference between oral lichen planus and the other studied lesions (p<0.05). Conclusion: Oral lichen planus cell proliferation rate was less than in oral epithelial dysplasia and oral squamous cell carcinoma which might explain the lower malignant transformation rate.