Real-time risk monitoring in business processes : a sensor-based approach

This article proposes an approach for real-time monitoring of risks in executable business process models. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, from process design, where risks are defined on top of process models, through to process diagnosis, where risks are detected during process execution. The approach has been realized via a distributed, sensor-based architecture. At design-time, sensors are defined to specify risk conditions which when fulfilled, are a likely indicator of negative process states (faults) to eventuate. Both historical and current process execution data can be used to compose such conditions. At run-time, each sensor independently notifies a sensor manager when a risk is detected. In turn, the sensor manager interacts with the monitoring component of a business process management system to prompt the results to process administrators who may take remedial actions. The proposed architecture has been implemented on top of the YAWL system, and evaluated through performance measurements and usability tests with students. The results show that risk conditions can be computed efficiently and that the approach is perceived as useful by the participants in the tests.

25 million years to break a continent : early to middle Miocene rifting and syn-extensional magmatism in the southern Gulf of California

Cenozoic extension in western Mexico has been divided into two episodes separated by the change from convergence to oblique divergence at the plate boundary. The Gulf Extensional Province is thought to have started once subduction ended at ~12.5 Ma whereas early extension is classified as Basin and Range. Mid-Miocene volcanism of the Comondú group has been considered as a subduction-related arc, whereas post ~12.5 Ma volcanism would be extension-related. Our new integration of the continental onshore and offshore geology of the south-east Gulf region, backed by tens of Ar-Ar and U-Pb ages and geochemical studies, document an early-mid Miocene rifting and extension-related bimodal to andesitic magmatism prior to subduction termination. Between ~21 and 11 Ma a system of NNW-SSE high-angle extensional faults rifted the western side of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) ignimbrite plateau. In Nayarit, rhyolitic domes and some basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 18-17 Ma. These rocks show strong antecrystic inheritance but an absence of Mesozoic and older xenocrysts, suggesting a genesis in the mid-upper crust triggered by extension-induced basaltic influx. In Sinaloa, large grabens were floored by huge dome complexes at ~21-17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated at 15 Ma. Mid-Miocene volcanism, including the largely volcaniclastic Comondú strata in Baja California, was thus emplaced in rift basins and appears associated to decompression melting rather than subduction. Along the coast, flat-lying basaltic lava flows dated at 11-10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here crustal thickness is 25-20 Km, almost half that in the core of the SMO, implying significant lithosphere stretching before ~11 Ma. This mafic pulse, with relatively high Ti but still clear Nb-Ta negative spikes, may be related to the detachment of the lower part of the subducted slab, allowing asthenosphere to flow into parts of the mantle previously fluxed by subduction fluids. Very uniform OIB-like lavas appear in late Pliocene and Pleistocene, only 18 m.y. after the onset of rifting and ~9 m.y. after the end of subduction. Our study shows that rifting began much earlier than Late Miocene and progressively overwhelmed subduction in generating magmatism.

Late Oligocene to middle Miocene rifting and syn-extensional magmatism in the southwestern Sierra Madre occidental, Mexico: the beginning of the Gulf of California rift

Although Basin and Range style extension affected several areas of western Mexico since the Late Eocene, extension in the Gulf of California region (the Gulf Extensional Province GEP) is thought to have started as subduction waned and ended at ~14 12.5 Ma. A general consensus also exists in considering the mid Miocene Comondú group as a suprasubduction volcanic arc. Our new integration of the geology of the south east Gulf region, backed by 43 new Ar Ar and U Pb mineral ages and geochemical studies, document a widespread phase of extension in the southern GEP between latest Oligocene and Early Miocene that subsequently focused in the region of the future Gulf in the Middle Miocene. Upper Oligocene to Lower Miocene rocks across the southern Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO)(northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa) were affected by major ~N S to NNW striking normal faults prior to ~21 Ma. Then, between ~21 and 11 Ma, a system of NNW-SSE high angle extensional faults continued extending the southwestern side of the SMO. Rhyolitic domes, shallow intrusive bodies, and lesser basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 20-17 Ma. In northern Sinaloa, large grabens were floored by huge dome complexes at ~21-17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated at 15-14 Ma, a setting and timing very similar to Sonora. Early to Middle Miocene volcanism, including the largely volcaniclastic Comondú strata in Baja California Sur, was thus emplaced in rift basins and was likely associated to decompression melting of upper mantle (inducing crustal partial melting) rather than to fluxing by fluids from the young subducting plate. Along the Nayarit and Sinaloa coast, flatlying basaltic lava flows dated at 11-10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here, crustal thickness is almost half that in the unextended core of the SMO, implying significant lithosphere stretching before ~11 Ma. Our study shows that rifting began much earlier than Late Miocene and provided a fundamental control on the style and composition of volcanism from at least 30 Ma. We envision a sustained period of lithospheric stretching and magmatism during which the pace and breadth of extension changed at ~20-18 Ma to be narrower and likely more rapid, and again at ~12.5 Ma, when the kinematics of rifting became more oblique.

A UKF-based estimation strategy for actuator fault detection of UASs

This paper presents a recursive strategy for online detection of actuator faults on a unmanned aerial system (UAS) subjected to accidental actuator faults. The proposed detection algorithm aims to provide a UAS with the capability of identifying and determining characteristics of actuator faults, offering necessary flight information for the design of fault-tolerant mechanism to compensate for the resultant side-effect when faults occur. The proposed fault detection strategy consists of a bank of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) with each one detecting a specific type of actuator faults and estimating correspond- ing velocity and attitude information. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a typical nonlinear UAS model and it is demonstrated in simulations that our method is able to detect representative faults with a sufficient accuracy and acceptable time delay, and can be applied to the design of fault-tolerant flight control systems of UASs.

Under-reporting of road crashes in Pakistan and the role of fate

Objective: Comprehensive, accurate information about road crashes and related trauma is a prerequisite for identification and control of risk factors as well as for identifying faults within the broader road safety system. Quality data and appropriate crash investigation are critical in reducing the road toll that is rapidly growing in much of the developing world, including Pakistan. This qualitative research explored the involvement of social and cultural factors (in particular, fatalism) in risky road use in Pakistan. The findings highlight a significant issue, previously unreported in the road safety literature, namely, the link between fatalistic beliefs and inaccurate reporting of road crashes. Method: Thirty interviews (one-to one) were conducted by the first author with police officers, drivers, policy makers and religious orators in three Pakistani cities. Findings: Evidence emerged of a strong link between fatalism and the under-reporting of road crashes. In many cases, crashes and related road trauma appear to go unreported because a crash is considered to be one’s fate and, therefore, beyond personal control. Fate was also implicated in the practice of reconciliation between parties after a crash without police involvement and the seeking and granting of pardon for a road death. Conclusions: These issues represent additional factors that can contribute to under-reporting of crashes and associated trauma. Together, they highlight complications involved in establishing the true cost of road trauma in a country such as Pakistan and the difficulties faced when attempting to promote scientifically-based road safety information to counteract faith-based beliefs.

Wide area control through aggregation of power systems

This thesis was a step forward in improving the stability of power systems by applying new control and modelling techniques. The developed methods use the data obtained from voltage angle measurement devices which are synchronized with GPS signals to stabilize the system and avoid system-wide blackouts in the event of severe faults. New approaches were developed in this research for identifying and estimating reduced dynamic system models using phasor measurement units. The main goal of this research is achieved by integrating the developed methods to obtain a feasible wide-area control system for stabilizing the power systems.

Monitoring of complex systems of interacting dynamic systems

Increases in functionality, power and intelligence of modern engineered systems led to complex systems with a large number of interconnected dynamic subsystems. In such machines, faults in one subsystem can cascade and affect the behavior of numerous other subsystems. This complicates the traditional fault monitoring procedures because of the need to train models of the faults that the monitoring system needs to detect and recognize. Unavoidable design defects, quality variations and different usage patterns make it infeasible to foresee all possible faults, resulting in limited diagnostic coverage that can only deal with previously anticipated and modeled failures. This leads to missed detections and costly blind swapping of acceptable components because of one’s inability to accurately isolate the source of previously unseen anomalies. To circumvent these difficulties, a new paradigm for diagnostic systems is proposed and discussed in this paper. Its feasibility is demonstrated through application examples in automotive engine diagnostics.

Characterisation of combustion related acoustic emission sources for diesel engine condition monitoring

This thesis represents a major step forward in understanding the link between the development of combustion related faults in diesel engines and the generation of acoustic emissions. The findings presented throughout the thesis provide a foundation so that future diesel engine monitoring systems are able to more effectively detect and monitor developing faults. In undertaking this research knowledge concerning engine function and relevant failure mechanisms was combined with different modelling methods to generate a framework that was used to effectively identify fault related activity within acoustic emissions recorded from different engines.

Late Oligocene to Middle Miocene rifting and synextensional magmatism in the southwestern Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico : the beginning of the Gulf of California rift

Although Basin and Range–style extension affected large areas of western Mexico after the Late Eocene, most consider that extension in the Gulf of California region began as subduction waned and ended ca. 14–12.5 Ma. A general consensus also exists in considering Early and Middle Miocene volcanism of the Sierra Madre Occidental and Comondú Group as subduction related, whereas volcanism after ca. 12.5 Ma is extension related. Here we present a new regional geologic study of the eastern Gulf of California margin in the states of Nayarit and Sinaloa, Mexico, backed by 43 new Ar-Ar and U-Pb mineral ages, and geochemical data that document an earlier widespread phase of extension. This extension across the southern and central Gulf Extensional Province began between Late Oligocene and Early Miocene time, but was focused in the region of the future Gulf of California in the Middle Miocene. Late Oligocene to Early Miocene rocks across northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa were affected by major approximately north-south– to north-northwest– striking normal faults prior to ca. 21 Ma. Between ca. 21 and 11 Ma, a system of north-northwest–south-southeast high angle extensional faults continued extending the southwestern side of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Rhyolitic domes, shallow intrusive bodies, and lesser basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 20–17 Ma. Rhyolitic rocks, in particular the domes and lavas, often show strong antecrystic inheritance but only a few Mesozoic or older xenocrysts, suggesting silicic magma generation in the mid-upper crust triggered by an extension induced basaltic infl ux. In northern Sinaloa, large grabens were occupied by huge volcanic dome complexes ca. 21–17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated as 15–14 Ma, a stratigraphy and timing very similar to those found in central Sonora (northeastern Gulf of California margin). Early to Middle Miocene volcanism occurred thus in rift basins, and was likely associated with decompression melting of upper mantle (inducing crustal partial melting) rather than with fluxing by fluids from the young and slow subducting microplates. Along the eastern side of the Gulf of California coast, from Farallón de San Ignacio island offshore Los Mochis, Sinaloa, to San Blas, Nayarit, a strike distance of >700 km, flat lying basaltic lavas dated as ca. 11.5–10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here crustal thickness is almost half that in the unextended core of the adjacent Sierra Madre Occidental, implying signifi cant lithosphere stretching before ca. 11 Ma. This mafic pulse, with subdued Nb-Ta negative spikes, may be related to the detachment of the lower part of the subducted slab, allowing an upward asthenospheric flow into an upper mantle previously modified by fluid fluxes related to past subduction. Widespread eruption of very uniform oceanic island basalt–like lavas occurred by the late Pliocene and Pleistocene, only 20 m.y. after the onset of rifting and ~9 m.y. after the end of subduction, implying that preexisting subduction-modified mantle had now become isolated from melt source regions. Our study shows that rifting across the southern-central Gulf Extensional Province began much earlier than the Late Miocene and provided a fundamental control on the style and composition of volcanism from at least 30 Ma. We envision a sustained period of lithospheric stretching and magmatism during which the pace and breadth of extension changed ca. 20–18 Ma to be narrower, and again after ca. 12.5 Ma, when the kinematics of rifting became more oblique.

Nonlinear actuator fault detection for small-scale UAS

This paper presents a recursive strategy for online detection of actuator faults on a unmanned aerial system (UAS) subjected to accidental actuator faults. The proposed detection algorithm aims to provide a UAS with the capability of identifying and determining characteristics of actuator faults, offering necessary flight information for the design of fault-tolerant mechanism to compensate for the resultant side-effect when faults occur. The proposed fault detection strategy consists of a bank of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) with each one detecting a specific type of actuator faults and estimating corresponding velocity and attitude information. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a typical nonlinear UAS model and it is demonstrated in simulations that our method is able to detect representative faults with a sufficient accuracy and acceptable time delay, and can be applied to the design of fault-tolerant flight control systems of UASs.

Two-stage power network reconfiguration strategy considering node importance and restored generation capacity

Network reconfiguration after complete blackout of a power system is an essential step for power system restoration. A new node importance evaluation method is presented based on the concept of regret, and maximisation of the average importance of a path is employed as the objective of finding the optimal restoration path. Then, a two-stage method is presented to optimise the network reconfiguration strategy. Specifically, the restoration sequence of generating units is first optimised so as to maximise the restored generation capacity, then the optimal restoration path is selected to restore the generating nodes concerned and the issues of selecting a serial or parallel restoration mode and the reconnecting failure of a transmission line are next considered. Both the restoration path selection and skeleton-network determination are implemented together in the proposed method, which overcomes the shortcoming of separate decision-making in the existing methods. Finally, the New England 10-unit 39-bus power system and the Guangzhou power system in South China are employed to demonstrate the basic features of the proposed method.

Fault detection in wind turbine : a systematic literature review

Wind power has become one of the popular renewable resources all over the world and is anticipated to occupy 12% of the total global electricity generation capacity by 2020. For the harsh environment that the wind turbine operates, fault diagnostic and condition monitoring are important for wind turbine safety and reliability. This paper employs a systematic literature review to report the most recent promotions in the wind turbine fault diagnostic, from 2005 to 2012. The frequent faults and failures in wind turbines are considered and different techniques which have been used by researchers are introduced, classified and discussed.

Precedent-free fault isolation in a diesel engine EGR valve system

In this paper, a framework for isolating unprecedented faults for an EGR valve system is presented. Using normal behavior data generated by a high fidelity engine simulation, the recently introduced Growing Structure Multiple Model System (GSMMS) is used to construct models of normal behavior for an EGR valve system and its various subsystems. Using the GSMMS models as a foundation, anomalous behavior of the entire system is then detected as statistically significant departures of the most recent modeling residuals from the modeling residuals during normal behavior. By reconnecting anomaly detectors to the constituent subsystems, the anomaly can be isolated without the need for prior training using faulty data. Furthermore, faults that were previously encountered (and modeled) are recognized using the same approach as the anomaly detectors.

Precedent-free fault isolation in a diesel engine exhaust gas recirculation system

In this paper, a recently introduced model-based method for precedent-free fault detection and isolation (FDI) is modified to deal with multiple input, multiple output (MIMO) systems and is applied to an automotive engine with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system. Using normal behavior data generated by a high fidelity engine simulation, the growing structure multiple model system (GSMMS) approach is used to construct dynamic models of normal behavior for the EGR system and its constituent subsystems. Using the GSMMS models as a foundation, anomalous behavior is detected whenever statistically significant departures of the most recent modeling residuals away from the modeling residuals displayed during normal behavior are observed. By reconnecting the anomaly detectors (ADs) to the constituent subsystems, EGR valve, cooler, and valve controller faults are isolated without the need for prior training using data corresponding to particular faulty system behaviors.

Torsional properties of bamboo-like structured Cu nanowires

Recently, researchers reported that nanowires (NWs) are often polycrystalline, which contain grain or twin boundaries that transect the whole NW normal to its axial direction into a bamboo like structure. In this work, large-scale molecular dynamics simulation is employed to investigate the torsional behaviours of bamboo-like structured Cu NWs. The existence of grain boundaries is found to induce a considerably large reduction to the critical angle, and the more of grain boundaries the less reduction appears, whereas, the presence of twin boundaries only results in a relatively smaller reduction to the critical angle. The introduction of grain boundaries reduces the torsional rigidity of the NW, whereas, the twin boundaries exert insignificant influence to the torsional rigidity. NWs with grain boundaries are inclined to produce a local HCP structure during loading, and the plastic deformation is usually evenly distributed along the axial axis of the NW. The plastic deformation of both perfect NW and NWs with twin boundaries is dominated by the nucleation and propagation of parallel intrinsic stacking faults. This study will enrich the current understanding of the mechanical properties of NWs, which will eventually shed lights on their applications.