993 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction


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Captures with black and white Shannon traps were undertaken to identify aspects of the behavior of the two cryptic and sympatric species implicated as vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis, Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) and Nyssomyia neivai (Pinto, 1926). The traps were installed side by side, monthly, from July 2001 to June 2002, from 18 to 07 hours, in a peridomicile of Iporanga municipality, state of São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 2,142 specimens were captured, Ny. intermedia (47.4%) and Ny. neivai (50.5%). The white trap was more attractive to both sexes of both species. Males of Ny. neivai predominated (70%) over those of Ny. intermedia on the two traps; on the black trap, the females of Ny. intermedia predominated (63.3%) over those of Ny. neivai (36.7%). Seventy percent of the specimens of both species were captured between 18 and 24 h. Females of Ny. intermedia presented the highest peak at 19-20 h, and those of Ny. neivai at 20-21 h. The highest hourly average for females of Ny. intermedia on the black trap occurred in the winter and that for males in the summer. For Ny. neivai, both sexes predominated in the summer. The two species probably transmit the cutaneous leishmaniasis in the area due to their great predominance.

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O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o equilíbrio muscular dos flexores e extensores (RFE) de joelho ao longo de uma temporada de treinamento em jogadores de futebol categoria sub-20. Fizeram parte da amostra 15 sujeitos pertencentes à equipe sub-20 da Associação Atlética Ponte Preta de Campinas. Os atletas participaram de um macrociclo de preparação (MP) de 29 semanas, composto por período preparatório e competitivo que foram divididos em quatro mesociclos: etapa geral (M1), etapa especial (M2), etapa pré-competitiva (M3) e etapa competitiva (M4). A RFE de ambos os membros foi determinada em dinamômetro isocinético utilizando o pico de torque (PT) obtido em três séries consecutivas de cinco repetições com velocidade de 60º/s. Avaliação isocinética foi realizada em quatro momentos ao longo do MP, sempre ao final de cada mesociclo (M1, M2, M3 e M4). Para análise estatística, foi empregado teste Friedman de medidas repetidas, seguida do teste de Wilcoxon e teste U de Mann-Whitney, com nível de significância de p<0,05. O PT nos músculos flexores de joelho, em ambos os membros, no M2 e M3 foram superiores aos observados em M1 e M4. O PT dos extensores de joelho em M1 foi significantemente inferior aos demais momentos do estudo (M2, M3 e M4), em ambos os membros. A RFE, em ambos os membros, foi inferior em M1 quando comparado a M2 e M3. A comparação da RFE entre os membros não revelou diferenças significantes em nenhum dos momentos do estudo (M1, M2, M3 e M4). Os resultados encontrados na presente investigação indicaram existência de alterações na magnitude da RFE, porém dentro da normalidade, e, manutenção da proporcionalidade entre os membros ao longo do MP. Esses resultados sugerem que não existem períodos sensíveis para a ocorrência de lesões em virtude de desequilíbrios musculares ao longo do MP em jogadores de futebol da categoria sub-20.

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A new criterion has been recently proposed combining the topological instability (lambda criterion) and the average electronegativity difference (Delta e) among the elements of an alloy to predict and select new glass-forming compositions. In the present work, this criterion (lambda.Delta e) is applied to the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd ternary systems and its predictability is validated using literature data for both systems and additionally, using own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The compositions with a high lambda.Delta e value found in each ternary system exhibit a very good correlation with the glass-forming ability of different alloys as indicated by their supercooled liquid regions (Delta T(x)) and their critical casting thicknesses. In the case of the Al-La-Ni system, the alloy with the largest lambda.Delta e value, La(56)Al(26.5)Ni(17.5), exhibits the highest glass-forming ability verified for this system. Therefore, the combined lambda.Delta e criterion is a simple and efficient tool to select new glass-forming compositions in Al-Ni-RE systems. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3563099]

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Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

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The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

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Aspergillus fumigatus is a common mould whose spores are a component of the normal airborne flora. Immune dysfunction permits developmental growth of inhaled spores in the human lung causing aspergillosis, a significant threat to human health in the form of allergic, and life-threatening invasive infections. The success of A. fumigatus as a pathogen is unique among close phylogenetic relatives and is poorly characterised at the molecular level. Recent genome sequencing of several Aspergillus species provides an exceptional opportunity to analyse fungal virulence attributes within a genomic and evolutionary context. To identify genes preferentially expressed during adaptation to the mammalian host niche, we generated multiple gene expression profiles from minute samplings of A. fumigatus germlings during initiation of murine infection. They reveal a highly co-ordinated A. fumigatus gene expression programme, governing metabolic and physiological adaptation, which allows the organism to prosper within the mammalian niche. As functions of phylogenetic conservation and genetic locus, 28% and 30%, respectively, of the A. fumigatus subtelomeric and lineage-specific gene repertoires are induced relative to laboratory culture, and physically clustered genes including loci directing pseurotin, gliotoxin and siderophore biosyntheses are a prominent feature. Locationally biased A. fumigatus gene expression is not prompted by in vitro iron limitation, acid, alkaline, anaerobic or oxidative stress. However, subtelomeric gene expression is favoured following ex vivo neutrophil exposure and in comparative analyses of richly and poorly nourished laboratory cultured germlings. We found remarkable concordance between the A. fumigatus host-adaptation transcriptome and those resulting from in vitro iron depletion, alkaline shift, nitrogen starvation and loss of the methyltransferase LaeA. This first transcriptional snapshot of a fungal genome during initiation of mammalian infection provides the global perspective required to direct much-needed diagnostic and therapeutic strategies and reveals genome organisation and subtelomeric diversity as potential driving forces in the evolution of pathogenicity in the genus Aspergillus.

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Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

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Aims. We report the discovery of CoRoT-8b, a dense small Saturn-class exoplanet that orbits a K1 dwarf in 6.2 days, and we derive its orbital parameters, mass, and radius. Methods. We analyzed two complementary data sets: the photometric transit curve of CoRoT-8b as measured by CoRoT and the radial velocity curve of CoRoT-8 as measured by the HARPS spectrometer**. Results. We find that CoRoT-8b is on a circular orbit with a semi-major axis of 0.063 +/- 0.001 AU. It has a radius of 0.57 +/- 0.02 R(J), a mass of 0.22 +/- 0.03 M(J), and therefore a mean density of 1.6 +/- 0.1 g cm(-3). Conclusions. With 67% of the size of Saturn and 72% of its mass, CoRoT-8b has a density comparable to that of Neptune (1.76 g cm(-3)). We estimate its content in heavy elements to be 47-63 M(circle plus), and the mass of its hydrogen-helium envelope to be 7-23 M(circle plus). At 0.063 AU, the thermal loss of hydrogen of CoRoT-8b should be no more than similar to 0.1% over an assumed integrated lifetime of 3 Ga.

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Total phenolic contents, antioxidant activity and chemical composition of propolis samples from three localities of Minas Gerais state (southeast Brazil) were determined. Total phenolic contents were determined by the Folin-Ciocalteau method, antioxidant activity was evaluated by DPPH, using BHT as reference, and chemical composition was analyzed by GC/MS. Propolis from Itapecerica and Paula Candido municipalities were found to have high phenolic contents and pronounced antioxidant activity. From these extracts, 40 substances were identified, among them were simple phenylpropanoids, prenylated phenylpropanoids, sesqui- and diterpenoids. Quantitatively, the main constituent of both samples was allyl-3-prenylcinnamic acid. A sample from Virginopolis municipality had no detectable phenolic substances and contained mainly triterpenoids, the main constituents being alpha-and beta-amyrins. Methanolic extracts from Itapecerica and Paula Candido exhibited pronounced scavenging activity towards DPPH, indistinguishable from BHT activity. However, extracts from Virginopolis sample exhibited no antioxidant activity. Total phenolic substances, GC/MS analyses and antioxidant activity of samples from Itapecerica collected monthly over a period of 1 year revealed considerable variation. No correlation was observed between antioxidant activity and either total phenolic contents or contents of artepillin C and other phenolic substances, as assayed by CG/MS analysis.

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In Natural Language Processing (NLP) symbolic systems, several linguistic phenomena, for instance, the thematic role relationships between sentence constituents, such as AGENT, PATIENT, and LOCATION, can be accounted for by the employment of a rule-based grammar. Another approach to NLP concerns the use of the connectionist model, which has the benefits of learning, generalization and fault tolerance, among others. A third option merges the two previous approaches into a hybrid one: a symbolic thematic theory is used to supply the connectionist network with initial knowledge. Inspired on neuroscience, it is proposed a symbolic-connectionist hybrid system called BIO theta PRED (BIOlogically plausible thematic (theta) symbolic-connectionist PREDictor), designed to reveal the thematic grid assigned to a sentence. Its connectionist architecture comprises, as input, a featural representation of the words (based on the verb/noun WordNet classification and on the classical semantic microfeature representation), and, as output, the thematic grid assigned to the sentence. BIO theta PRED is designed to ""predict"" thematic (semantic) roles assigned to words in a sentence context, employing biologically inspired training algorithm and architecture, and adopting a psycholinguistic view of thematic theory.

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We use the density functional theory/local-density approximation (DFT/LDA)-1/2 method [L. G. Ferreira , Phys. Rev. B 78, 125116 (2008)], which attempts to fix the electron self-energy deficiency of DFT/LDA by half-ionizing the whole Bloch band of the crystal, to calculate the band offsets of two Si/SiO(2) interface models. Our results are similar to those obtained with a ""state-of-the-art"" GW approach [R. Shaltaf , Phys. Rev. Lett. 100, 186401 (2008)], with the advantage of being as computationally inexpensive as the usual DFT/LDA. Our band gap and band offset predictions are in excellent agreement with experiments.

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The roles of herbivory and predation in determining the structure and diversity of communities have been tested across most intertidal systems. In contrast, the importance of omnivorous consumers remains untested in many rocky shore communities. We tested the role of a small omnivorous crab in an intertidal food web on rocky shores of the sub-tropical southwest Atlantic. Exclusion of the grapsid crab Pachygrapsus transversus in the field resulted in significant changes in the abundance of functional groups in the sublittoral fringe of sheltered shores, where the dominant cover changed from a suite of macroalgae to an assemblage of filter-feeding animals (ascidians, sponges, mussels). In contrast, limpets, whelks, large crabs and fish did not significantly affect community composition of the assemblage. To examine the omnivorous feeding pattern of P. transversus, we did laboratory experiments to test its foraging behaviour among animal and algal groups. The crab showed selective behaviour, preferring invertebrate groups to macroalgae, and opportunistic behaviour among types of prey within those major groups. According to our results, the role of slow-moving and large fast-moving consumers is apparently negligible compared to the effect of an omnivorous consumer. P. transversus plays an important role in determining the intertidal community composition on these subtropical rocky shores, causing changes in the balance of functional groups and controlling invasive species.

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Background and Aims Floral development of Cedrela and Toona, the genera comprising the basal tribe Cedreleae of the sub-family Swietenioideae of Meliaceae, is described. The focus was on three endangered, ecologically and economically important species: Cedrela fissilis, Cedrela odorata and Toona ciliata. The aims of the study were to characterize the patterns of floral development in the tribe and to establish apomorphic and plesiomorphic floral characters in relation to other taxa within the family based on the current molecular phylogeny of Meliaceae. Methods A detailed floral structural and developmental study was completed using both scanning electron microscopy and visualization of microtome sections with a light microscope. Key Results Twelve floral developmental stages were identified. The initial development of the pentamerous flowers of both Toona and Cedrela is strikingly similar. The morphological differences observed between them are due to differential patterns of organ elongation and adnation/connation occurring late in development. Additionally, the formation of functionally male and female flowers was found to occur at specific positions within the inflorescence. Conclusions Due to the basal position of the tribe Cedreleae in the phylogeny of Meliaceae, functionally either male or female pentamerous flowers and the presence of (at least partially) free stamens may be considered plesiomorphic traits within the family. In contrast, sympetaly and the absence of nectaries in Cedrela species are synapomorphies.

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This paper deals with the problem of state prediction for descriptor systems subject to bounded uncertainties. The problem is stated in terms of the optimization of an appropriate quadratic functional. This functional is well suited to derive not only the robust predictor for descriptor systems but also that for usual state-space systems. Numerical examples are included in order to demonstrate the performance of this new filter. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The results of a combined experimental program and numerical modeling program to evaluate the behavior of ungrouted hollow concrete blocks prisms under uniaxial compression are addressed. In the numerical program, three distinct approaches have been considered using a continuum model with a smeared approach, namely plane-stress, plane-strain and three-dimensional conditions. The response of the numerical simulations is compared with experimental data of masonry prisms using concrete blocks specifically designed for this purpose. The elastic and inelastic parameters were acquired from laboratory tests on concrete and mortar samples that constitute the blocks and the bed joint of the prisms. The results from the numerical simulations are discussed with respect to the ability to reproduce the global response of the experimental tests, and with respect to the failure behavior obtained. Good agreement between experimental and numerical results was found for the peak load and for the failure mode using the three-dimensional model, on four different sets of block/mortar types. Less good agreement was found for plain stress and plain strain models.