Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Regular vine copulas are multivariate dependence models constructed from pair-copulas (bivariate copulas). In this paper, we allow the dependence parameters of the pair-copulas in a D-vine decomposition to be potentially time-varying, following a nonlinear restricted ARMA(1,m) process, in order to obtain a very flexible dependence model for applications to multivariate financial return data. We investigate the dependence among the broad stock market indexes from Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40), Britain (FTSE 100), the United States (S&P 500) and Brazil (IBOVESPA) both in a crisis and in a non-crisis period. We find evidence of stronger dependence among the indexes in bear markets. Surprisingly, though, the dynamic D-vine copula indicates the occurrence of a sharp decrease in dependence between the indexes FTSE and CAC in the beginning of 2011, and also between CAC and DAX during mid-2011 and in the beginning of 2008, suggesting the absence of contagion in these cases. We also evaluate the dynamic D-vine copula with respect to Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting accuracy in crisis periods. The dynamic D-vine outperforms the static D-vine in terms of predictive accuracy for our real data sets.

Effects of litter and fine root composition on their decomposition in a Rhodic Paleustalf under different land uses

Plant litter and fine roots are important in maintaining soil organic carbon (C) levels as well as for nutrient cycling. The decomposition of surface-placed litter and fine roots of wheat ( Triticum aestivum ), lucerne ( Medicago sativa ), buffel grass ( Cenchrus ciliaris ), and mulga ( Acacia aneura ), placed at 10-cm and 30-cm depths, was studied in the field in a Rhodic Paleustalf. After 2 years, = 60% of mulga roots and twigs remained undecomposed. The rate of decomposition varied from 4.2 year -1 for wheat roots to 0.22 year -1 for mulga twigs, which was significantly correlated with the lignin concentration of both tops and roots. Aryl+O-aryl C concentration, as measured by 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, was also significantly correlated with the decomposition parameters, although with a lower R 2 value than the lignin concentration. Thus, lignin concentration provides a good predictor of litter and fine root decomposition in the field.

Kinetic study on thermal decomposition of woods in oxidative environment

The purpose of this work is to gain knowledge on kinetics of biomass decomposition under oxidative atmospheres, mainly examining effect of heating rate on different biomass species. Two sets of experiments are carried out: the first set of experiments is thermal decomposition of four different wood particles, namely aspens, birch, oak and pine under an oxidative atmosphere and analysis with TGA; and the second set is to use large size samples of wood under different heat fluxes in a purpose-built furnace, where the temperature distribution, mass loss and ignition characteristics are recorded and analyzed by a data post-processing system. The experimental data is then used to develop a two-step reactions kinetic scheme with low and high temperature regions while the activation energy for the reactions of the species under different heating rates is calculated. It is found that the activation energy of the second stage reaction for the species with similar constituent fractions tends to converge to a similar value under the high heating rate.

Studies on the thermal decomposition behaviour, kinetics and electrical conductivity of the non-isothermal decomposition of pyridine mono carboxylic acids and some of their transition metal complexes

The thesis is divided into four chapters. They are: introduction, experimental, results and discussion about the free ligands and results and discussion about the complexes. The First Chapter, the introductory chapter, is a general introduction to the study of solid state reactions. The Second Chapter is devoted to the materials and experimental methods that have been used for carrying out tile experiments. TIle Third Chapter is concerned with the characterisations of free ligands (Picolinic acid, nicotinic acid, and isonicotinic acid) by using elemental analysis, IR spectra, X-ray diffraction, and mass spectra. Additionally, the thermal behaviour of free ligands in air has been studied by means of thermogravimetry (TG), derivative thermogravimetry (DTG), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) measurements. The behaviour of thermal decomposition of the three free ligands was not identical Finally, a computer program has been used for kinetic evaluation of non-isothermal differential scanning calorimetry data according to a composite and single heating rate methods in comparison with the methods due to Ozawa and Kissinger methods. The most probable reaction mechanism for the free ligands was the Avrami-Erofeev equation (A) that described the solid-state nucleation-growth mechanism. The activation parameters of the decomposition reaction for free ligands were calculated and the results of different methods of data analysis were compared and discussed. The Fourth Chapter, the final chapter, deals with the preparation of cobalt, nickel, and copper with mono-pyridine carboxylic acids in aqueous solution. The prepared complexes have been characterised by analyses, IR spectra, X-ray diffraction, magnetic moments, and electronic spectra. The stoichiometry of these compounds was ML2x(H20), (where M = metal ion, L = organic ligand and x = water molecule). The environments of cobalt, nickel, and copper nicotinates and the environments of cobalt and nickel picolinates were octahedral, whereas the environment of copper picolinate [Cu(PA)2] was tetragonal. However, the environments of cobalt, nickel, and copper isonicotinates were polymeric octahedral structures. The morphological changes that occurred throughout the decomposition were followed by SEM observation. TG, DTG, and DSC measurements have studied the thermal behaviour of the prepared complexes in air. During the degradation processes of the hydrated complexes, the crystallisation water molecules were lost in one or two steps. This was also followed by loss of organic ligands and the metal oxides remained. Comparison between the DTG temperatures of the first and second steps of the dehydration suggested that the water of crystallisation was more strongly bonded with anion in Ni(II) complexes than in the complexes of Co(II) and Cu(II). The intermediate products of decomposition were not identified. The most probable reaction mechanism for the prepared complexes was also Avrami-Erofeev equation (A) characteristic of solid-state nucleation-growth mechanism. The tempemture dependence of conductivity using direct current was determined for cobalt, nickel, Cl.nd copper isonicotinates. An activation energy (ΔΕ), the activation energy (ΔΕ ) were calculated.The ternperature and frequency dependence of conductivity, the frequency dependence of dielectric constant, and the dielectric loss for nickel isonicotinate were determined by using altemating current. The value of s paralneter and the value of'density of state [N(Ef)] were calculated. Keyword Thermal decomposition, kinetic, electrical conduclion, pyridine rnono~ carboxylic acid, cOlnplex, transition metal compJex.

Singular Solutions with Exponential Growth for the (3+1)-D Wave Equation

Недю И. Попиванов, Тодор П. Попов, Рудолф Шерер - Разглеждат се четиримерни гранични задачи за нехомогенното вълново уравнение. Те са предложени от М. Протер като многомерни аналози на задачата на Дарбу в равнината. Известно е, че единственото обобщено решение може да има силна степенна особеност само в една гранична точка. Тази сингулярност е изолирана във върха на характеристичния конус и не се разпространява по конуса. Друг аспект на проблема е, че задачата не е фредхолмова, тъй като има безкрайномерно коядро. Предишни резултати сочат, че решението може да има най-много експоненциален ръст, но оставят открит въпроса дали наистина съществуват такива решения. Показваме, че отговора на този въпрос е положителен и строим обобщено решение на задачата на Протер с експоноциална особеност.

Singular Solutions of Protter’s Problem for a Class of 3-D Hyperbolic Equations

Недю Иванов Попиванов, Алексей Йорданов Николов - През 1952 г. М. Протър формулира нови гранични задачи за вълновото уравнение, които са тримерни аналози на задачите на Дарбу в равнината. Задачите са разгледани в тримерна област, ограничена от две характеристични конуса и равнина. Сега, след като са минали повече от 50 години, е добре известно, че за безброй гладки функции в дясната страна на уравнението тези задачи нямат класически решения, а обобщеното решение има силна степенна особеност във върха на характеристичния конус, която е изолирана и не се разпространява по конуса. Тук ние разглеждаме трета гранична задача за вълновото уравнение с младши членове и дясна страна във формата на тригонометричен полином. Дадена е по-нова от досега известната априорна оценка за максимално възможната особеност на решенията на тази задача. Оказва се, че при по-общото уравнение с младши членове възможната сингулярност е от същия ред като при чисто вълновото уравнение.

Time domain decomposition for European options in financial modelling

Finance is one of the fastest growing areas in modern applied mathematics with real world applications. The interest of this branch of applied mathematics is best described by an example involving shares. Shareholders of a company receive dividends which come from the profit made by the company. The proceeds of the company, once it is taken over or wound up, will also be distributed to shareholders. Therefore shares have a value that reflects the views of investors about the likely dividend payments and capital growth of the company. Obviously such value will be quantified by the share price on stock exchanges. Therefore financial modelling serves to understand the correlations between asset and movements of buy/sell in order to reduce risk. Such activities depend on financial analysis tools being available to the trader with which he can make rapid and systematic evaluation of buy/sell contracts. There are other financial activities and it is not an intention of this paper to discuss all of these activities. The main concern of this paper is to propose a parallel algorithm for the numerical solution of an European option. This paper is organised as follows. First, a brief introduction is given of a simple mathematical model for European options and possible numerical schemes of solving such mathematical model. Second, Laplace transform is applied to the mathematical model which leads to a set of parametric equations where solutions of different parametric equations may be found concurrently. Numerical inverse Laplace transform is done by means of an inversion algorithm developed by Stehfast. The scalability of the algorithm in a distributed environment is demonstrated. Third, a performance analysis of the present algorithm is compared with a spatial domain decomposition developed particularly for time-dependent heat equation. Finally, a number of issues are discussed and future work suggested.

A class of domain decomposition preconditioners for hp-discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods

In this article we address the question of efficiently solving the algebraic linear system of equations arising from the discretization of a symmetric, elliptic boundary value problem using hp-version discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods. In particular, we introduce a class of domain decomposition preconditioners based on the Schwarz framework, and prove bounds on the condition number of the resulting iteration operators. Numerical results confirming the theoretical estimates are also presented.

Noises: a Nuisance and a Resource. Development of New Decomposition Methods of Noisy Data

Noise is constant presence in measurements. Its origin is related to the microscopic properties of matter. Since the seminal work of Brown in 1828, the study of stochastic processes has gained an increasing interest with the development of new mathematical and analytical tools. In the last decades, the central role that noise plays in chemical and physiological processes has become recognized. The dual role of noise as nuisance/resource pushes towards the development of new decomposition techniques that divide a signal into its deterministic and stochastic components. In this thesis I show how methods based on Singular Spectrum Analysis have the right properties to fulfil the previously mentioned requirement. During my work I applied SSA to different signals of interest in chemistry: I developed a novel iterative procedure for the denoising of powder X-ray diffractograms; I “denoised” bi-dimensional images from experiments of electrochemiluminescence imaging of micro-beads obtaining new insight on ECL mechanism. I also used Principal Component Analysis to investigate the relationship between brain electrophysiological signals and voice emission.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Prognostic Value Of Dna And Mrna E6/e7 Of Human Papillomavirus In The Evolution Of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 2.

This study aimed at evaluating whether human papillomavirus (HPV) groups and E6/E7 mRNA of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45 are prognostic of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 outcome in women with a cervical smear showing a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This cohort study included women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 who were followed up for 12 months, with cervical smear and colposcopy performed every three months. Women with a negative or low-risk HPV status showed 100% CIN 2 regression. The CIN 2 regression rates at the 12-month follow-up were 69.4% for women with alpha-9 HPV versus 91.7% for other HPV species or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). For women with HPV 16, the CIN 2 regression rate at the 12-month follow-up was 61.4% versus 89.5% for other HPV types or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). The CIN 2 regression rate was 68.3% for women who tested positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA versus 82.0% for the negative results, but this difference was not statistically significant. The expectant management for women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 and previous cytological tests showing LSIL exhibited a very high rate of spontaneous regression. HPV 16 is associated with a higher CIN 2 progression rate than other HPV infections. HPV E6/E7 mRNA is not a prognostic marker of the CIN 2 clinical outcome, although this analysis cannot be considered conclusive. Given the small sample size, this study could be considered a pilot for future larger studies on the role of predictive markers of CIN 2 evolution.

Predictive Value Of Phase I Trials For Safety In Later Trials And Final Approved Dose: Analysis Of 61 Approved Cancer Drugs.

Phase I trials use a small number of patients to define a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and the safety of new agents. We compared data from phase I and registration trials to determine whether early trials predicted later safety and final dose. We searched the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website for drugs approved in nonpediatric cancers (January 1990-October 2012). The recommended phase II dose (R2PD) and toxicities from phase I were compared with doses and safety in later trials. In 62 of 85 (73%) matched trials, the dose from the later trial was within 20% of the RP2D. In a multivariable analysis, phase I trials of targeted agents were less predictive of the final approved dose (OR, 0.2 for adopting ± 20% of the RP2D for targeted vs. other classes; P = 0.025). Of the 530 clinically relevant toxicities in later trials, 70% (n = 374) were described in phase I. A significant relationship (P = 0.0032) between increasing the number of patients in phase I (up to 60) and the ability to describe future clinically relevant toxicities was observed. Among 28,505 patients in later trials, the death rate that was related to drug was 1.41%. In conclusion, dosing based on phase I trials was associated with a low toxicity-related death rate in later trials. The ability to predict relevant toxicities correlates with the number of patients on the initial phase I trial. The final dose approved was within 20% of the RP2D in 73% of assessed trials.

Value Of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy In Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Initial Results Of A Prospective Trial.

The objectives of the study were to evaluate the performance of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in detecting occult metastases in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and to correlate their presence to tumor and patient characteristics. Twenty-three clinically node-negative PTC patients (21 females, mean age 48.4 years) were prospectively enrolled. Patients were submitted to sentinel lymph node (SLN) lymphoscintigraphy prior to total thyroidectomy. Ultrasound-guided peritumoral injections of (99m)Tc-phytate (7.4 MBq) were performed. Cervical single-photon emission computed tomography and computed tomography (SPECT/CT) images were acquired 15 min after radiotracer injection and 2 h prior to surgery. Intra-operatively, SLNs were located with a gamma probe and removed along with non-SLNs located in the same neck compartment. Papillary thyroid carcinoma, SLNs and non-SLNs were submitted to histopathology analysis. Sentinel lymph nodes were located in levels: II in 34.7 % of patients; III in 26 %; IV in 30.4 %; V in 4.3 %; VI in 82.6 % and VII in 4.3 %. Metastases in the SLN were noted in seven patients (30.4 %), in non-SLN in three patients (13.1 %), and in the lateral compartments in 20 % of patients. There were significant associations between lymph node (LN) metastases and the presence of angio-lymphatic invasion (p = 0.04), extra-thyroid extension (p = 0.03) and tumor size (p = 0.003). No correlations were noted among LN metastases and patient age, gender, stimulated thyroglobulin levels, positive surgical margins, aggressive histology and multifocal lesions. Sentinel lymph node biopsy can detect occult metastases in PTC. The risk of a metastatic SLN was associated with extra-thyroid extension, larger tumors and angio-lymphatic invasion. This may help guide future neck dissection, patient surveillance and radioiodine therapy doses.

The Value Of Audiovisual Archives.

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Taxonomic value of foliar characters in Dahlstedtia Malme: Leguminosae, Papilionoideae, Millettieae

Dahlstedtia Malme (Leguminosae) is a neotropical genus, native to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, and comprises two species, D. pinnata (Benth.) Malme and D. pentaphylla (Taub.) Burk., although it has been considered a monotypic genus by some authors. Leaf anatomy was compared to verify the presence of anatomical characters to help delimit species. Foliar primordium, leaflet, petiolule, petiole and pulvinus were collected from cultivated plants (Campinas, SP, Brazil) and from natural populations (Picinguaba, Ubatuba and Caraguatatuba, SP, Brazil - D. pinnata; Antonina, PR, Brazil - D. pentaphylla). Studies on leaflet surface assessment (Scanning Electron Microscopy), as well as histology and venation analyses were carried out of dehydrated, fresh and fixed material from two species. Leaflet material was macerated for stomatal counts. Histological sections, obtained by free-hand cut or microtome, were stained with Toluidine Blue, Safranin/Alcian Blue, Ferric Chloride, Acid Phloroglucin. Secretory cavities are present in the lamina, petiolule, petiole, pulvinus and leaf primordium in D. pentaphylla, but not in D. pinnata, and can be considered an important character for species diagnosis. Other leaf characters were uninformative in delimiting Dahlstedtia species. There is cambial activity in the petiolule, petiole and pulvinus. This study, associated with other available data, supports the recognition of two species in Dahlstedtia.