A Variance-Minimizing Filter for Large-Scale Applications

A truly variance-minimizing filter is introduced and its per for mance is demonstrated with the Korteweg– DeV ries (KdV) equation and with a multilayer quasigeostrophic model of the ocean area around South Africa. It is recalled that Kalman-like filters are not variance minimizing for nonlinear model dynamics and that four - dimensional variational data assimilation (4DV AR)-like methods relying on per fect model dynamics have dif- ficulty with providing error estimates. The new method does not have these drawbacks. In fact, it combines advantages from both methods in that it does provide error estimates while automatically having balanced states after analysis, without extra computations. It is based on ensemble or Monte Carlo integrations to simulate the probability density of the model evolution. When obser vations are available, the so-called importance resampling algorithm is applied. From Bayes’ s theorem it follows that each ensemble member receives a new weight dependent on its ‘ ‘distance’ ’ t o the obser vations. Because the weights are strongly var ying, a resampling of the ensemble is necessar y. This resampling is done such that members with high weights are duplicated according to their weights, while low-weight members are largely ignored. In passing, it is noted that data assimilation is not an inverse problem by nature, although it can be for mulated that way . Also, it is shown that the posterior variance can be larger than the prior if the usual Gaussian framework is set aside. However , i n the examples presented here, the entropy of the probability densities is decreasing. The application to the ocean area around South Africa, gover ned by strongly nonlinear dynamics, shows that the method is working satisfactorily . The strong and weak points of the method are discussed and possible improvements are proposed.

Using Distributed Temperature Sensing to monitor field scale dynamics of ground surface temperature and related substrate heat flux

We present one of the first studies of the use of Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) along fibre-optic cables to purposely monitor spatial and temporal variations in ground surface temperature (GST) and soil temperature, and provide an estimate of the heat flux at the base of the canopy layer and in the soil. Our field site was at a groundwater-fed wet meadow in the Netherlands covered by a canopy layer (between 0-0.5 m thickness) consisting of grass and sedges. At this site, we ran a single cable across the surface in parallel 40 m sections spaced by 2 m, to create a 40×40 m monitoring field for GST. We also buried a short length (≈10 m) of cable to depth of 0.1±0.02 m to measure soil temperature. We monitored the temperature along the entire cable continuously over a two-day period and captured the diurnal course of GST, and how it was affected by rainfall and canopy structure. The diurnal GST range, as observed by the DTS system, varied between 20.94 and 35.08◦C; precipitation events acted to suppress the range of GST. The spatial distribution of GST correlated with canopy vegetation height during both day and night. Using estimates of thermal inertia, combined with a harmonic analysis of GST and soil temperature, substrate and soil-heat fluxes were determined. Our observations demonstrate how the use of DTS shows great promise in better characterising area-average substrate/soil heat flux, their spatiotemporal variability, and how this variability is affected by canopy structure. The DTS system is able to provide a much richer data set than could be obtained from point temperature sensors. Furthermore, substrate heat fluxes derived from GST measurements may be able to provide improved closure of the land surface energy balance in micrometeorological field studies. This will enhance our understanding of how hydrometeorological processes interact with near-surface heat fluxes.

Can site and landscape-scale environmental attributes buffer bird populations against weather events?

Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climate-driven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitating inter-population movements. A reduction in the obstacles to species’ range expansion, may also allow species to track changing conditions better through shifts to new locations, either regionally or locally. However, despite a strong theoretical base, there is limited empirical evidence to support these management interventions. This makes it difficult for conservationists to decide on the most appropriate strategy for different circumstances. Here extensive data from long-term monitoring of woodland birds at individual sites are used to examine the two-way interactions between habitat and both weather and population count in the previous year. This tests the extent to which site-scale and landscape-scale habitat attributes may buffer populations against variation in winter weather (a key driver of woodland bird population size) and facilitate subsequent population growth. Our results provide some support for the prediction that landscape-scale attributes (patch isolation and area of woodland habitat) may influence the ability of some woodland bird species to withstand weather-mediated population declines. These effects were most apparent among generalist woodland species. There was also evidence that several, primarily specialist, woodland species are more likely to increase following population decline where there is more woodland at both site and landscape scales. These results provide empirical support for the concept that landscape-scale conservation efforts may make the populations of some woodland bird species more resilient to climate change. However in isolation, management is unlikely to provide a universal benefit to all species.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

Influence of multi-scale landscape structure on the occurrence of carnivorous mammals in a human-modified savanna, Brazil

So Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and contains few fragments of native ecosystems, generally surrounded by intensive agriculture lands. Despite this, some areas still shelter large native animals. We aimed at understanding how medium and large carnivores use a mosaic landscape of forest/savanna and agroecosystems, and how the species respond to different landscape parameters (percentage of landcover and edge density), in a multi-scale perspective. The response variables were: species richness, carnivore frequency and frequency for the three most recorded species (Puma concolor, Chrysocyon brachyurus and Leopardus pardalis). We compared 11 competing models using Akaike`s information criterion (AIC) and assessed model support using weight of AIC. Concurrent models were combinations of landcover types (native vegetation, ""cerrado"" formations, ""cerrado"" and eucalypt plantation), landscape feature (percentage of landcover and edge density) and spatial scale. Herein, spatial scale refers to the radius around a sampling point defining a circular landscape. The scales analyzed were 250 (fine), 1,000 (medium) and 2,000 m (coarse). The shape of curves for response variables (linear, exponential and power) was also assessed. Our results indicate that species with high mobility, P. concolor and C. brachyurus, were best explained by edge density of the native vegetation at a coarse scale (2,000 m). The relationship between P. concolor and C. brachyurus frequency had a negative power-shaped response to explanatory variables. This general trend was also observed for species richness and carnivore frequency. Species richness and P. concolor frequency were also well explained by a second concurrent model: edge density of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. A different response was recorded for L. pardalis, as the frequency was best explained for the amount of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. The curve of response was linearly positive. The contrasting results (P. concolor and C. brachyurus vs L. pardalis) may be due to the much higher mobility of the two first species, in comparison with the third. Still, L. pardalis requires habitat with higher quality when compared with other two species. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when evaluating species responses to different habitats. An important and new finding was the prevalence of edge density over the habitat extension to explain overall carnivore distribution, a key information for planning and management of protected areas.

A Parallel Hardware Architecture for Scale and Rotation Invariant Feature Detection

This paper proposes a parallel hardware architecture for image feature detection based on the Scale Invariant Feature Transform algorithm and applied to the Simultaneous Localization And Mapping problem. The work also proposes specific hardware optimizations considered fundamental to embed such a robotic control system on-a-chip. The proposed architecture is completely stand-alone; it reads the input data directly from a CMOS image sensor and provides the results via a field-programmable gate array coupled to an embedded processor. The results may either be used directly in an on-chip application or accessed through an Ethernet connection. The system is able to detect features up to 30 frames per second (320 x 240 pixels) and has accuracy similar to a PC-based implementation. The achieved system performance is at least one order of magnitude better than a PC-based solution, a result achieved by investigating the impact of several hardware-orientated optimizations oil performance, area and accuracy.

PAIN IN FIBROMYALGIA AND DISCRIMINATIVE POWER OF THE INSTRUMENTS: VISUAL ANALOG SCALE, DOLORIMETRY AND THE MCGILL PAIN QUESTIONNAIRE

Objective: The aim of this study was to verify the discriminative power of the most widely used pain assessment instruments. Methods: The sample consisted of 279 subjects divided into Fibromyalgia Group (FM- 205 patients with fibromyalgia) and Control Group (CG-74 healthy subjects), mean age 49.29 +/- 10.76 years. Only 9 subjects were male, 6 in FM and 3 in CG. FM were outpatients from the Rheumatology Clinic of the University of Sao Paulo - Hospital das Clinicas (HCFMUSP); the CG included people accompanying patients and hospital staff with similar socio-demographic characteristics. Three instruments were used to assess pain: the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ), the Visual Analog Scale (VAS), and the Dolorimetry, to measure pain threshold on tender points (generating the TP index). In order to assess the discriminative power of the instruments, the measurements obtained were submitted to descriptive analysis and inferential analysis using ROC Curve - sensibility (S), specificity (S I) and area under the curve (AUC) - and Contingence tables with Chi-square Test and odds ratio. Significance level was 0.05. Results: Higher sensibility, specificity and area under the curve was obtained by VAS (80%, 80% and 0.864, respectively), followed by Dolorimetry (S 77%, S177% and AUC 0.851), McGill Sensory (S 72%, S167% and AUC 0.765) and McGill Affective (S 69%, S1 67% and AUC 0.753). Conclusions: VAS presented the higher sensibility, specificity and AUC, showing the greatest discriminative power among the instruments. However, these values are considerably similar to those of Dolorimetry.

Photovoltaic System Design for a Contaminated Area in Falun – Comparison of South and East- West Layout

In this thesis the solar part of a large grid-connected photovoltaic system design has been done. The main purpose was to size and optimize the system and to present figures helping to evaluate the prospective project rationality, which can potentially be constructed on a contaminated area in Falun. The methodology consisted in PV market study and component selection, site analysis and defining suitable area for solar installation; and system configuration optimization based on PVsyst simulations and Levelized Cost of Energy calculations. The procedure was mainly divided on two parts, preliminary and detailed sizing. In the first part the objective was complex, which included the investigation of the most profitable component combination and system optimization due to tilt and row distance. It was done by simulating systems with different components and orientations, which were sized for the same 100kW inverter in order to make a fair comparison. For each simulated result a simplified LCOE calculation procedure was applied. The main results of this part show that with the price of 0.43 €/Wp thin-film modules were the most cost effective solution for the case with a great advantage over crystalline type in terms of financial attractiveness. From the results of the preliminary study it was possible to select the optimal system configuration, which was used in the detailed sizing as a starting point. In this part the PVsyst simulations were run, which included full scale system design considering near shadings created by factory buildings. Additionally, more complex procedure of LCOE calculation has been used here considered insurances, maintenance, time value of money and possible cost reduction due to the system size. Two system options were proposed in final results; both cover the same area of 66000 m2. The first one represents an ordinary South faced design with 1.1 MW nominal power, which was optimized for the highest performance. According to PVsyst simulations, this system should produce 1108 MWh/year with the initial investment of 835,000 € and 0.056 €/kWh LCOE. The second option has an alternative East-West orientation, which allows to cover 80% of occupied ground and consequently have 6.6 MW PV nominal power. The system produces 5388 MWh/year costs about 4500,000 € and delivers electricity with the same price of 0.056 €/kWh. Even though the EW solution has 20% lower specific energy production, it benefits mainly from lower relative costs for inverters, mounting and annual maintenance expenses. After analyzing the performance results, among the two alternatives none of the systems showed a clear superiority so there was no optimal system proposed. Both, South and East-West solutions have own advantages and disadvantages in terms of energy production profile, configuration, installation and maintenance. Furthermore, the uncertainty due to cost figures assumptions restricted the results veracity.

Performance and economic indicators of a large scale fish farming in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Performance and economic indicators of a large scale fish farm that produces round fish, located in Mato Grosso State, Brazil, were evaluated. The 130.8 ha-water surface area was distributed in 30 ponds. Average total production costs and the following economic indicators were calculated: gross income (GI), gross margin (GM), gross margin index (GMI), profitability index (PI) and profit (P) for the farm as a whole and for ten ponds individually. Production performance indicators were also obtained, such as: production cycle (PC), apparent feed conversion (FC), average biomass storage (ABS), survival index (SI) and final average weight (FAW). The average costs to produce an average 2.971 kg.ha-1 per year were: R$ 2.43, R$ 0.72 and R$ 3.15 as average variable, fixed and total costs, respectively. Gross margin and profit per year per hectare of water surface were R$ 2,316.91 and R$ 180.98, respectively. The individual evaluation of the ponds showed that the best pond performance was obtained for PI 38%, FC 1.7, ABS 0.980 kg.m-2, TS 56%, FAW 1.873 kg with PC of 12.3 months. The worst PI was obtained for the pond that displayed losses of 138%, FC 2.6, ABS 0.110 kg.m-2, SI 16% and FAW 1.811 kg. However, large scale production of round-fish in farms is economically feasible. The studied farm displays favorable conditions to improve performance and economic indicators, but it is necessary to reproduce the breeding techniques and performance indicators achieved in few ponds to the entire farm.

Distribuição de probabilidade de ocorrência de Orthezia praelonga Douglas (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Ortheziidae) na cultura de citros

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Magnetic susceptibility to identify landscape segments on a detailed scale in the region of Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Eficácia da utilização de grânulos de argila como veículo para a aplicação aérea de sulfentrazone e isoxaflutole em área de implantação de eucalipto

Realizou-se um experimento em uma área de implantação da cultura do eucalipto no município de São Miguel Arcanjo-SP, com o objetivo de avaliar a eficácia da aplicação aérea de grânulos de argila como veículo dos herbicidas sulfentrazone e isoxaflutole, no controle de plantas daninhas. Foi realizada aplicação aérea dos herbicidas sulfentrazone, nas doses de 500 e 750 g i.a. ha-1, e isoxaflutole, nas doses de 150 e 225 g i.a. ha-1, utilizando-se como veículo grânulos de argila com densidade de 1,05 g cm ³, alta capacidade de absorção (24 mL 100 g-1), alta resistência ao desgaste e tamanho das partículas entre 500 mícrons e 1 mm. Também foram feitas aplicações via líquida dos mesmos herbicidas e doses com um pulverizador convencional, acoplado a um trator. Além desses tratamentos, foi mantida uma parcela testemunha, sem aplicação dos herbicidas. Nas parcelas experimentais foram semeadas as espécies de plantas daninhas Brachiaria decumbens, Ipomoea grandifolia, Merremia cissoides e Panicum maximum, sendo realizadas avaliações visuais de controle aos 75 e 110 dias após a aplicação. em geral, foram observados, nas plantas daninhas avaliadas, resultados de controle semelhantes ou superiores para a aplicação aérea (via grânulos) até 75 DAA e superiores para essa modalidade de aplicação aos 110 DAA, indicando uma extensão no período do efeito do residual dos herbicidas estudados.

Cátions hidrossolúveis na parte aérea de culturas anuais mediante aplicação de calcário e gesso em superfície

A eficiência da calagem superficial pode ser melhorada por meio de compostos orgânicos hidrossolúveis liberados por resíduos vegetais. No entanto, não se sabe se os teores desses compostos nos resíduos das culturas podem ser modificados pela aplicação de calcário e gesso em superfície. O presente trabalho objetivou avaliar os efeitos das aplicações de calcário e gesso em superfície sobre os teores de cátions solúveis nos resíduos vegetais das culturas de arroz, feijão e aveia-preta. O experimento foi realizado em um Latossolo Vermelho distroférrico de Botucatu (SP). O delineamento foi de blocos casualizados com parcelas subdivididas e quatro repetições. As parcelas foram constituídas por quatro doses de calcário dolomítico (0, 1.100, 2.700 e 4.300 kg ha-1) e as subparcelas, pela aplicação ou não de 2.100 kg ha-1 de gesso agrícola. Para as culturas de verão foi utilizado esquema de parcela subsubdividida. As subsubparcelas foram constituídas por dois cultivares de arroz de terras altas (Caiapó e IAC 202), no ano agrícola 2002/03, e dois cultivares de feijão (Pérola e Carioca), em 2003/04. A aveia-preta foi cultivada no inverno dos dois anos, utilizando apenas o cultivar Comum. Os teores de cátions solúveis na parte aérea das culturas de arroz, feijão e aveia-preta foram alterados pela aplicação de calcário e gesso em superfície. A gessagem em superfície aumentou os teores solúveis de Ca e reduziu o de Mg na parte aérea das culturas, principalmente nas primeiras safras após a aplicação. A calagem aumentou os teores de cátions solúveis na parte aérea de todas as culturas. As culturas do feijão e da aveia-preta apresentaram maiores teores de cátions solúveis nos resíduos da parte aérea, avaliados no florescimento.

Distribution of stream macroalgal communities from the mid-western region of Paraná state, southern Brazil: importance of local scale variation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Reavaliação da via aérea do paciente obeso submetido à cirurgia bariátrica após a redução do índice de massa corpórea

JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: A dificuldade na intubação traqueal é causa de mortalidade em anestesiologia e pode estar relacionada à obesidade. Diagnosticar uma intubação difícil contribui para o êxito da abordagem da via aérea, mas os parâmetros preditores de intubação difícil não estão bem estabelecidos. A classificação de Mallampati, a distância interincisivos, a circunferência do pescoço, a distância tireomentoniana e a presença da síndrome da apneia obstrutiva do sono são parâmetros que podem indicar uma intubação difícil. O tratamento cirúrgico da obesidade proporciona redução do índice de massa corpórea (IMC), com estabilização por volta de 2 anos. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi reavaliar os parâmetros descritos com os valores pré-cirúrgicos. MÉTODO: Cinquenta e um pacientes de ambos os sexos foram avaliados no período pré-operatório quanto a IMC, classificação de Mallampati, circunferência do pescoço, distância interincisivos, distância tireomentoniana e grau da síndrome de apneia obstrutiva do sono por meio da polissonografia. Após dois anos de cirurgia e redução do IMC < 35 kg.m-2, os preditores de intubação difícil foram reavaliados por outro médico anestesiologista com conhecimento do IMC prévio. Foram excluídos nove pacientes. Executou-se reavaliação dos parâmetros supracitados e, para os que não realizaram nova polissonografia, aplicou-se a escala de sonolência de Epiworth. RESULTADOS: Quarenta e dois pacientes foram reavaliados e mostraram redução do IMC e da circunferência do pescoço e aumento das distâncias interincisivos e tireomentoniana. Apenas um paciente apresentou redução na escala de Mallampati e somente quatro realizaram a polissonografia. CONCLUSÕES: A redução do IMC proporciona aumento das distâncias interincisivos e tireomentoniana e redução da circunferência do pescoço. O Mallampati permanece inalterado.