Cost effective campaigning in social networks

Campaigners are increasingly using online social networking platforms for promoting products, ideas and information. A popular method of promoting a product or even an idea is incentivizing individuals to evangelize the idea vigorously by providing them with referral rewards in the form of discounts, cash backs, or social recognition. Due to budget constraints on scarce resources such as money and manpower, it may not be possible to provide incentives for the entire population, and hence incentives need to be allocated judiciously to appropriate individuals for ensuring the highest possible outreach size. We aim to do the same by formulating and solving an optimization problem using percolation theory. In particular, we compute the set of individuals that are provided incentives for minimizing the expected cost while ensuring a given outreach size. We also solve the problem of computing the set of individuals to be incentivized for maximizing the outreach size for given cost budget. The optimization problem turns out to be non trivial; it involves quantities that need to be computed by numerically solving a fixed point equation. Our primary contribution is, that for a fairly general cost structure, we show that the optimization problems can be solved by solving a simple linear program. We believe that our approach of using percolation theory to formulate an optimization problem is the first of its kind. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Educação como política pública : por que os retornos políticos merecem ser avaliados

Os retornos que a educação brasileira traz em termos de comportamentos políticos favoráveis à convivência democrática, como participação e apoio à democracia, têm sido decrescentes. Apesar dos desafios envolvidos, essa é uma faceta das políticas públicas da educação que merece ser sistematicamente avaliada, a exemplo do que a faz a OCDE.

Decomposing the Gender Wage Gap: The effect of firms, occupations and Job Stratification

This paper presents new evidence on the role of segregation into firms, occupations within a firm and stratification into professional categories within firm-occupations in explaining the gender wage gap. I use a generalized earnings model that allows observed and unobserved group characteristics to have different impact on wages of men and women within the same group. The database is a large sample of individual wage data from the 1995 Spanish Wage Structure Survey. Results indicate that firm segregation in our sample accounts for around one-fifth of the raw gender wage gap. Occupational segregation within firms accounts for about one-third of the raw wage gap, and stratification into different professional categories within firms and occupations explains another one-third of it. The remaining one-fifth of the overall gap arises from better outcomes of men relative to women within professional categories. It is also found that rewards to both observable and unobservable skills, particularly those related to education, are higher for males than for females within the same group. Finally, mean wages in occupations or job categories with a higher fraction of female co-workers are lower, but the negative impact of femaleness in higher for women.

Los programas de fidelización como plataforma de venta directa: clasificación de los titulares según la redención de billetes aéreos

[ES] Cada vez son más numerosos los programas de fidelización que ofrecen al titular la posibilidad de comprar puntos o conseguir premios, viajes o billetes aéreos pagando una parte de los mismos con dinero. Dicha característica, unida a la propia estructura y dinámica de los programas de fidelización y a la actual coyuntura del sector turístico, ha permitido desarrollar plataformas de venta directa desde las que ofrecer servicios a los titulares.

A note on bargaining power and managerial delegation in multimarket oligopolies

In a two-stage delegation game model with Nash bargaining between a manager and an owner, an equivalence result is found between this game and Fershtman and Judd's strategic delegation game (Fershtman and Judd, 1987). Interestingly, although both games are equivalent in terms of profits under certain conditions, managers obtain greater rewards in the bargaining game. This results in a redistribution of profits between owners and managers.

Characterization of the neural mechanisms supporting the implementation of cognitive control in human decision making

Humans are particularly adept at modifying their behavior in accordance with changing environmental demands. Through various mechanisms of cognitive control, individuals are able to tailor actions to fit complex short- and long-term goals. The research described in this thesis uses functional magnetic resonance imaging to characterize the neural correlates of cognitive control at two levels of complexity: response inhibition and self-control in intertemporal choice. First, we examined changes in neural response associated with increased experience and skill in response inhibition; successful response inhibition was associated with decreased neural response over time in the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, a region widely implicated in cognitive control, providing evidence for increased neural efficiency with learned automaticity. We also examined a more abstract form of cognitive control using intertemporal choice. In two experiments, we identified putative neural substrates for individual differences in temporal discounting, or the tendency to prefer immediate to delayed rewards. Using dynamic causal models, we characterized the neural circuit between ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an area involved in valuation, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in self-control in intertemporal and dietary choice, and found that connectivity from dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to ventromedial prefrontal cortex increases at the time of choice, particularly when delayed rewards are chosen. Moreover, estimates of the strength of connectivity predicted out-of-sample individual rates of temporal discounting, suggesting a neurocomputational mechanism for variation in the ability to delay gratification. Next, we interrogated the hypothesis that individual differences in temporal discounting are in part explained by the ability to imagine future reward outcomes. Using a novel paradigm, we imaged neural response during the imagining of primary rewards, and identified negative correlations between activity in regions associated the processing of both real and imagined rewards (lateral orbitofrontal cortex and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, respectively) and the individual temporal discounting parameters estimated in the previous experiment. These data suggest that individuals who are better able to represent reward outcomes neurally are less susceptible to temporal discounting. Together, these findings provide further insight into role of the prefrontal cortex in implementing cognitive control, and propose neurobiological substrates for individual variation.

Conditioned responses in the reticular formation

Unit activity was recorded from the midbrain and pons of 40 freely moving rats in an appetitive classical conditioning situation. Responses to auditory stimuli were observed from 100 units before and during a conditioning procedure in which presentation of food occurred 1 sec after the onset of the auditory stimulus. Conditioned unit responses (i.e., spike rate accelerations or decelerations) were considered to be positive when 1) no similar responses appeared prior to conditioning, and 2) latencies were equal to or less than those of sensory responses derived from the inferior colliculus. Such short latency conditioned unit responses were recorded from 11 probes located in the mid-lateral pert of the ventral region of the brain stem. This region was differentiated from paramedian, far lateral and dorsal parts of the brain stem reticular formation. Conditioned unit responses of considerably longer latencies were recorded from 76 probe located in these other regions. Among the longer latency responses interesting differences appeared in experiments conducted after the first conditioning series was completed. With additional training, units in the "reticular activating system" of midbrain and pons tended to yield stabilized responses in the early portion of the CS-US interval closely related in time to the orientation responses evoked by the CS. In contrast, the responses of units in the limbic midbrain tended to stabilize in the later part of the CS-US interval closely related in time to preparatory responses tied to the US. During extinction when the auditory stimulus was no longer followed by presentation of food, many of the responses were reduced to their pre-conditioning levels. However, there was a tendency for units which had displayed short latency responses on the first conditioning day to be more resistant to extinction than units which had displayed longer latency conditioned responses. The data were interpreted as indicating a local correlate of learning in the reticular formation of midbrain end pons and a separation of the midbrain system into at least two areas: 1) the classical "reticular activating system" related to orienting reactions, and 2) the limbic midbrain areas related to drives and rewards. Because the ventral and mid-lateral area with very short latency conditioned responses was not clearly tied to either of these; it was considered as possibly representing a third division.

Prevalência de transtornos mentais comuns : estresse no ambiente de trabalho e atividade física em militares

Esta tese inclui dois artigos que tiveram por objetivo investigar a relação de estresse no ambiente de trabalho com a prevalência de transtornos mentais comuns (TMC) e a relação de ambos com os níveis de prática de atividade física em militares do Exército Brasileiro. No primeiro artigo, a variável dependente foi TMC e a primeira variável independente foi o estresse no ambiente de trabalho, avaliado sob o modelo esforço-recompensa em desequilíbrio (effort-reward imbalance: ERI). TMC foram avaliados por meio do General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Foram estimadas razões de prevalência (RP) por regressão de Poisson para imprimir robustez aos intervalos de confiança (95%). A prevalência de TMC foi de 33,2% (IC95%:29,1;37,3). O estudo mostrou, após ajuste por idade, educação, renda, estilo de vida, autopercepção de saúde, agravos à saúde autorreferidos e características ocupacionais, que estresse no ambiente de trabalho estava forte e independentemente associado a TMC, exibindo razões de prevalências (RP) que variaram entre os níveis de estresse, oscilando de 1,60 a 2,01. O posto de tenente estava associado a TMC, mesmo após ajuste pelas covariáveis (RP = 2,06; IC95% 1,2 4,1). Os resultados indicaram que excesso de comprometimento é um componente importante do estresse no trabalho. Estes achados foram consistentes com a literatura e contribuem com o conhecimento sobre o estado de saúde mental dos militares das Forças Armadas no Brasil, destacando que o estresse no ambiente de trabalho e que o desempenho das funções ocupacionais, do posto de Tenente, podem significar risco maior para TMC nesse tipo de população. O segundo artigo teve por objetivo investigar a associação de estresse no ambiente de trabalho e TMC com a prática de atividade física habitual entre militares das Forças Armadas. A atividade física (variável dependente) foi estimada por meio do Questionário de Baecke, um dos instrumentos mais utilizados em estudos epidemiológicos sobre atividade física. Estresse no ambiente de trabalho, TMC e posto foram as variáveis independentes, avaliadas conforme descrição mencionada acima. Buscou-se avaliar a associação destas variáveis e com a prática de atividade física no pessoal militar. Para tanto, utilizou-se o método de regressão linear múltipla, via modelos lineares generalizados. Após controlar por características socioeconomicas e demográficas, estresse no ambiente de trabalho, caracterizado por "altos esforços e baixa recompensas", permaneceu associado a mais atividade física ocupacional (b = 0,224 IC95% 0,098; 0,351) e a menos atividade física no lazer (b = -0,198; IC95% -0,384; -0,011). TMC permaneceram associados a menores níveis de atividade física nos esportes/exercícios no lazer (b = -0,184; IC95% -0,321; -0,046). Posto permaneceu associado a maiores níveis de atividade física ocupacional (b = 0,324 IC95% 0,167; 0,481). Até onde se sabe, este foi o primeiro estudo a avaliar a relação de aspectos psicossociais e ocupacionais envolvidos na prática de atividade física em militares no Brasil e no exterior. Os resultados sugerem que o ambiente de trabalho e a saúde mental estão associados à prática de atividade física de militares, que se relaciona com a condição de aptidão física.

Un estudio del crédito a través de plataformas de internet

[ES]La presente investigación ha tenido como objetivo el estudio de las características o factores pertenecientes a los proyectos crowdfunding y su influencia, ya sea negativa o positiva, en la recaudación de fondos. En particular, de las características de los proyectos CF del tipo recompensa. Para ello, se partió de una base de datos originalmente creada por Verkami.com, de la cual se seleccionaron 208 proyectos para la muestra. Dicha muestra fue posteriormente ampliada y completada con otras variables que se consideraron podían ser influyentes. En este estudio se presentan cronológicamente varios modelos econométricos distintos, los cuales sufren cambios en la forma funcional con la intención de corregir problemas de especificación. Respecto a los resultados, encontramos una correlación positiva y significativa entre la cantidad recaudada y los patrocinadores (backers), algo por una parte lógico. Mientras que por otra parte, también resultaron ser significativas para explicar la variación en la variable dependiente, la variable cualitativa “Cine” dentro de las que hacían referencia a la tipología de los proyectos y la variable cualitativa “Madrid” dentro de las que estudiaban la influencia de la ubicación.

Natural actor and belief critic: Reinforcement algorithm for learning parameters of dialogue systems modelled as POMDPs

This article presents a novel algorithm for learning parameters in statistical dialogue systems which are modeled as Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). The three main components of a POMDP dialogue manager are a dialogue model representing dialogue state information; a policy that selects the system's responses based on the inferred state; and a reward function that specifies the desired behavior of the system. Ideally both the model parameters and the policy would be designed to maximize the cumulative reward. However, while there are many techniques available for learning the optimal policy, no good ways of learning the optimal model parameters that scale to real-world dialogue systems have been found yet. The presented algorithm, called the Natural Actor and Belief Critic (NABC), is a policy gradient method that offers a solution to this problem. Based on observed rewards, the algorithm estimates the natural gradient of the expected cumulative reward. The resulting gradient is then used to adapt both the prior distribution of the dialogue model parameters and the policy parameters. In addition, the article presents a variant of the NABC algorithm, called the Natural Belief Critic (NBC), which assumes that the policy is fixed and only the model parameters need to be estimated. The algorithms are evaluated on a spoken dialogue system in the tourist information domain. The experiments show that model parameters estimated to maximize the expected cumulative reward result in significantly improved performance compared to the baseline hand-crafted model parameters. The algorithms are also compared to optimization techniques using plain gradients and state-of-the-art random search algorithms. In all cases, the algorithms based on the natural gradient work significantly better. © 2011 ACM.

Perceptual learning, roving and the unsupervised bias

Perceptual learning improves perception through training. Perceptual learning improves with most stimulus types but fails when . certain stimulus types are mixed during training (roving). This result is surprising because classical supervised and unsupervised neural network models can cope easily with roving conditions. What makes humans so inferior compared to these models? As experimental and conceptual work has shown, human perceptual learning is neither supervised nor unsupervised but reward-based learning. Reward-based learning suffers from the so-called unsupervised bias, i.e., to prevent synaptic " drift" , the . average reward has to be exactly estimated. However, this is impossible when two or more stimulus types with different rewards are presented during training (and the reward is estimated by a running average). For this reason, we propose no learning occurs in roving conditions. However, roving hinders perceptual learning only for combinations of similar stimulus types but not for dissimilar ones. In this latter case, we propose that a critic can estimate the reward for each stimulus type separately. One implication of our analysis is that the critic cannot be located in the visual system. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

On-line policy optimisation of spoken dialogue systems via live interaction with human subjects

Statistical dialogue models have required a large number of dialogues to optimise the dialogue policy, relying on the use of a simulated user. This results in a mismatch between training and live conditions, and significant development costs for the simulator thereby mitigating many of the claimed benefits of such models. Recent work on Gaussian process reinforcement learning, has shown that learning can be substantially accelerated. This paper reports on an experiment to learn a policy for a real-world task directly from human interaction using rewards provided by users. It shows that a usable policy can be learnt in just a few hundred dialogues without needing a user simulator and, using a learning strategy that reduces the risk of taking bad actions. The paper also investigates adaptation behaviour when the system continues learning for several thousand dialogues and highlights the need for robustness to noisy rewards. © 2011 IEEE.

The Effect of Motivation on Movement: A Study of Bradykinesia in Parkinson's Disease

Background: Bradykinesia is a cardinal feature of Parkinson's disease (PD). Despite its disabling impact, the precise cause of this symptom remains elusive. Recent thinking suggests that bradykinesia may be more than simply a manifestation of motor slowness, and may in part reflect a specific deficit in the operation of motivational vigour in the striatum. In this paper we test the hypothesis that movement time in PD can be modulated by the specific nature of the motivational salience of possible action-outcomes. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed a novel movement time paradigm involving winnable rewards and avoidable painful electrical stimuli. The faster the subjects performed an action the more likely they were to win money (in appetitive blocks) or to avoid a painful shock (in aversive blocks). We compared PD patients when OFF dopaminergic medication with controls. Our key finding is that PD patients OFF dopaminergic medication move faster to avoid aversive outcomes (painful electric shocks) than to reap rewarding outcomes (winning money) and, unlike controls, do not speed up in the current trial having failed to win money in the previous one. We also demonstrate that sensitivity to distracting stimuli is valence specific. Conclusions/Significance: We suggest this pattern of results can be explained in terms of low dopamine levels in the Parkinsonian state leading to an insensitivity to appetitive outcomes, and thus an inability to modulate movement speed in the face of rewards. By comparison, sensitivity to aversive stimuli is relatively spared. Our findings point to a rarely described property of bradykinesia in PD, namely its selective regulation by everyday outcomes. © 2012 Shiner et al.

Serotonin selectively modulates reward value in human decision-making.

Establishing a function for the neuromodulator serotonin in human decision-making has proved remarkably difficult because if its complex role in reward and punishment processing. In a novel choice task where actions led concurrently and independently to the stochastic delivery of both money and pain, we studied the impact of decreased brain serotonin induced by acute dietary tryptophan depletion. Depletion selectively impaired both behavioral and neural representations of reward outcome value, and hence the effective exchange rate by which rewards and punishments were compared. This effect was computationally and anatomically distinct from a separate effect on increasing outcome-independent choice perseveration. Our results provide evidence for a surprising role for serotonin in reward processing, while illustrating its complex and multifarious effects.

Altruistic learning.

The origin of altruism remains one of the most enduring puzzles of human behaviour. Indeed, true altruism is often thought either not to exist, or to arise merely as a miscalculation of otherwise selfish behaviour. In this paper, we argue that altruism emerges directly from the way in which distinct human decision-making systems learn about rewards. Using insights provided by neurobiological accounts of human decision-making, we suggest that reinforcement learning in game-theoretic social interactions (habitisation over either individuals or games) and observational learning (either imitative of inference based) lead to altruistic behaviour. This arises not only as a result of computational efficiency in the face of processing complexity, but as a direct consequence of optimal inference in the face of uncertainty. Critically, we argue that the fact that evolutionary pressure acts not over the object of learning ('what' is learned), but over the learning systems themselves ('how' things are learned), enables the evolution of altruism despite the direct threat posed by free-riders.