Chances and risks of publication of quality data - the perspectives of Swiss physicians and nurses

Background The release of quality data from acute care hospitals to the general public is based on the aim to inform the public, to provide transparency and to foster quality-based competition among providers. Due to the expected mechanisms of action and possibly the adverse consequences of public quality comparison, it is a controversial topic. The perspective of physicians and nurses is of particular importance in this context. They are mainly responsible for the collection of quality-control data, and are directly confronted with the results of public comparison. The research focus of this qualitative study was to discover what the views and opinions of the Swiss physicians and nurses were regarding these issues. It was investigated as to how the two professional groups appraised the opportunities as well as the risks of the release of quality data in Switzerland. Methods A qualitative approach was chosen to answer the research question. For data collection, four focus groups were conducted with physicians and nurses who were employed in Swiss acute care hospitals. Qualitative content analysis was applied to the data. Results The results revealed that both occupational groups had a very critical and negative attitude regarding the recent developments. The perceived risks were dominating their view. In summary, their main concerns were: the reduction of complexity, the one-sided focus on measurable quality variables, risk selection, the threat of data manipulation and the abuse of published information by the media. An additional concern was that the impression is given that the complex construct of quality can be reduced to a few key figures, and it that it is constructed from a false message which then influences society and politics. This critical attitude is associated with the different value system and the professional self-concept that both physicians and nurses have, in comparison to the underlying principles of a market-based economy and the economic orientation of health care business. Conclusions The critical and negative attitude of Swiss physicians and nurses must, under all conditions, be heeded to and investigated regarding its impact on work motivation and identification with the profession. At the same time, the two professional groups are obligated to reflect upon their critical attitude and take a proactive role in the development of appropriate quality indicators for the publication of quality data in Switzerland.

DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

Ozone and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies and Comparison to a Multi-City Study (The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study)

While many time-series studies of ozone and daily mortality identified positive associations,others yielded null or inconclusive results. We performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 time-series studies, and estimated pooled effects by lags, age groups,cause-specific mortality, and concentration metrics. We compared results to estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), a time-series study of 95 large U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Both meta-analysis and NMMAPS results provided strong evidence of a short-term association between ozone and mortality, with larger effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, the elderly, and current day ozone exposure as compared to other single day lags. In both analyses, results were not sensitive to adjustment for particulate matter and model specifications. In the meta-analysis we found that a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone is associated with a 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 1.12%) increase in total mortality, whereas the corresponding NMMAPS estimate is 0.25%(0.12, 0.39%). Meta-analysis results were consistently larger than those from NMMAPS,indicating publication bias. Additional publication bias is evident regarding the choice of lags in time-series studies, and the larger heterogeneity in posterior city-specific estimates in the meta-analysis, as compared with NMAMPS.

Full publication of results initially presented in abstracts

BACKGROUND: Abstracts of presentations at scientific meetings are usually available only in conference proceedings. If subsequent full publication of abstract results is based on the magnitude or direction of study results, publication bias may result. Publication bias, in turn, creates problems for those conducting systematic reviews or relying on the published literature for evidence. OBJECTIVES: To determine the rate at which abstract results are subsequently published in full, and the time between meeting presentation and full publication. To assess the association between study characteristics and full publication. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index, reference lists, and author files. Date of most recent search: June 2003. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all reports that examined the subsequent full publication rate of biomedical results initially presented as abstracts or in summary form. Follow-up of abstracts had to be at least two years. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers extracted data. We calculated the weighted mean full publication rate and time to full publication. Dichotomous variables were analyzed using relative risk and random effects models. We assessed time to publication using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. MAIN RESULTS: Combining data from 79 reports (29,729 abstracts) resulted in a weighted mean full publication rate of 44.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 43.9 to 45.1). Survival analyses resulted in an estimated publication rate at 9 years of 52.6% for all studies, 63.1% for randomized or controlled clinical trials, and 49.3% for other types of study designs.'Positive' results defined as any 'significant' result showed an association with full publication (RR = 1.30; CI 1.14 to 1.47), as did 'positive' results defined as a result favoring the experimental treatment (RR =1.17; CI 1.02 to 1.35), and 'positive' results emanating from randomized or controlled clinical trials (RR = 1.18, CI 1.07 to 1.30).Other factors associated with full publication include oral presentation (RR = 1.28; CI 1.09 to 1.49); acceptance for meeting presentation (RR = 1.78; CI 1.50 to 2.12); randomized trial study design (RR = 1.24; CI 1.14 to 1.36); and basic research (RR = 0.79; CI 0.70 to 0.89). Higher quality of abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials was also associated with full publication (RR = 1.30, CI 1.00 to 1.71). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Only 63% of results from abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials are published in full. 'Positive' results were more frequently published than not 'positive' results.

Electrical neuroimaging in the time domain

A publication entitled “A default mode of brain function” initiated a new way of looking at functional imaging data. In this PET study the authors discussed the often-observed consistent decrease of brain activation in a variety of tasks as compared with the baseline. They suggested that this deactivation is due to a task-induced suspension of a default mode of brain function that is active during rest, i.e. that there exists intrinsic well-organized brain activity during rest in several distinct brain regions. This suggestion led to a large number of imaging studies on the resting state of the brain and to the conclusion that the study of this intrinsic activity is crucial for understanding how the brain works. The fact that the brain is active during rest has been well known from a variety of EEG recordings for a very long time. Different states of the brain in the sleep–wake continuum are characterized by typical patterns of spontaneous oscillations in different frequency ranges and in different brain regions. Best studied are the evolving states during the different sleep stages, but characteristic EEG oscillation patterns have also been well described during awake periods (see Chapter 1 for details). A highly recommended comprehensive review on the brain's default state defined by oscillatory electrical brain activities is provided in the recent book by György Buzsaki, showing how these states can be measured by electrophysiological procedures at the global brain level as well as at the local cellular level.

Lag Camera: A Moving Multi-Camera Array for Scene-Acquisition

Many applications, such as telepresence, virtual reality, and interactive walkthroughs, require a three-dimensional(3D)model of real-world environments. Methods, such as lightfields, geometric reconstruction and computer vision use cameras to acquire visual samples of the environment and construct a model. Unfortunately, obtaining models of real-world locations is a challenging task. In particular, important environments are often actively in use, containing moving objects, such as people entering and leaving the scene. The methods previously listed have difficulty in capturing the color and structure of the environment while in the presence of moving and temporary occluders. We describe a class of cameras called lag cameras. The main concept is to generalize a camera to take samples over space and time. Such a camera, can easily and interactively detect moving objects while continuously moving through the environment. Moreover, since both the lag camera and occluder are moving, the scene behind the occluder is captured by the lag camera even from viewpoints where the occluder lies in between the lag camera and the hidden scene. We demonstrate an implementation of a lag camera, complete with analysis and captured environments.

Initiation and continuation of randomized trials after the publication of a trial stopped early for benefit asking the same study question: STOPIT-3 study design

BACKGROUND Randomized control trials (RCTs) stopped early for benefit (truncated RCTs) are increasingly common and, on average, overestimate the relative magnitude of benefit by approximately 30%. Investigators stop trials early when they consider it is no longer ethical to enroll patients in a control group. The goal of this systematic review is to determine how investigators of ongoing or planned RCTs respond to the publication of a truncated RCT addressing a similar question. METHODS/DESIGN We will conduct systematic reviews to update the searches of 210 truncated RCTs to identify similar trials ongoing at the time of publication, or started subsequently, to the truncated trials ('subsequent RCTs'). Reviewers will determine in duplicate the similarity between the truncated and subsequent trials. We will analyze the epidemiology, distribution, and predictors of subsequent RCTs. We will also contact authors of subsequent trials to determine reasons for beginning, continuing, or prematurely discontinuing their own trials, and the extent to which they rely on the estimates from truncated trials. DISCUSSION To the extent that investigators begin or continue subsequent trials they implicitly disagree with the decision to stop the truncated RCT because of an ethical mandate to administer the experimental treatment. The results of this study will help guide future decisions about when to stop RCTs early for benefit.

Schmiede ─ Heiligtum ─ Wassermühle. Cham-Hagendorn (Kanton Zug) in römischer Zeit. Ausgrabungen 1944/45 und 2003/04

1944/1945 wurde in Cham-Hagendorn eine Wassermühle ausgegraben, die dank ihrer aussergewöhnlich guten Holzerhaltung seit langem einen prominenten Platz in der Forschung einnimmt. 2003 und 2004 konnte die Kantonsarchäologie Zug den Platz erneut archäologisch untersuchen. Dabei wurden nicht nur weitere Reste der Wassermühle, sondern auch Spuren älterer und jüngerer Anlagen geborgen: eine ältere und eine jüngere Schmiedewerkstatt (Horizont 1a/Horizont 3) sowie ein zweiphasiges Heiligtum (Horizonte 1a/1b). All diese Anlagen lassen sich nun in das in den neuen Grabungen erkannte stratigraphische Gerüst einhängen (s. Beil. 2). Dank der Holzerhaltung können die meisten Phasen dendrochronologisch datiert werden (s. Abb. 4.1/1a): Horizont 1a mit Schlagdaten zwischen 162(?)/173 und 200 n. Chr., Horizont 1b um 215/218 n. Chr. und Horizont 2 um 231 n. Chr. Ferner konnten in den neuen Grabungen Proben für mikromorphologische und archäobotanische Untersuchungen entnommen werden (Kap. 2.2; 3.11). In der vorliegenden Publikation werden der Befund und die Baustrukturen vorgelegt, (Kap. 2), desgleichen sämtliche stratifizierten Funde und eine umfassende Auswahl der 1944/1945 geborgenen Funde (Kap. 3). Dank anpassender Fragmente, sog. Passscherben, lassen sich diese zum Teil nachträglich in die Schichtenabfolge einbinden. Die mikromorphologischen und die archäobotanischen Untersuchungen (Kap. 2.2; 3.11) zeigen, dass der Fundplatz in römischer Zeit inmitten einer stark vom Wald und dem Fluss Lorze geprägten Landschaft lag. In unmittelbarer Nähe können weder eine Siedlung noch einzelne Wohnbauten gelegen haben. Die demnach nur gewerblich und sakral genutzten Anlagen standen an einem Bach, der vermutlich mit jenem Bach identisch ist, der noch heute das Groppenmoos entwässert und bei Cham-Hagendorn in die Lorze mündet (s. Abb. 2.4/1). Der antike Bach führte wiederholt Hochwasser ─ insgesamt sind fünf grössere Überschwemmungsphasen auszumachen (Kap. 2.2; 2.4). Wohl anlässlich eines Seehochstandes durch ein Überschwappen der Lorze in den Bach ausgelöst, müssen diese Überschwemmungen eine enorme Gewalt entwickelt haben, der die einzelnen Anlagen zum Opfer fielen. Wie die Untersuchung der Siedlungslandschaft römischer Zeit rund um den Zugersee wahrscheinlich macht (Kap. 6 mit Abb. 6.2/2), dürften die Anlagen von Cham-Hagendorn zu einer in Cham-Heiligkreuz vermuteten Villa gehören, einem von fünf grösseren Landgütern in diesem Gebiet. Hinweise auf Vorgängeranlagen fehlen, mit denen die vereinzelten Funde des 1. Jh. n. Chr. (Kap. 4.5) in Verbindung gebracht werden könnten. Diese dürften eher von einer der Überschwemmungen bachaufwärts weggerissen und nach Cham-Hagendorn eingeschwemmt worden sein. Die Nutzung des Fundplatzes (Horizont 1a; s. Beil. 6) setzte um 170 n. Chr. mit einer Schmiedewerkstatt ein (Kap. 2.5.1). Der Fundanfall, insbesondere die Schmiedeschlacken (Kap. 3.9) belegen, dass hier nur hin und wieder Geräte hergestellt und repariert wurden (Kap. 5.2). Diese Werkstatt war vermutlich schon aufgelassen und dem Verfall preisgegeben, als man 200 n. Chr. (Kap. 4.2.4) auf einer Insel zwischen dem Bach und einem Lorzearm ein Heiligtum errichtete (Kap. 5.3). Beleg für den sakralen Status dieser Insel ist in erster Linie mindestens ein eigens gepflanzter Pfirsichbaum, nachgewiesen mit Pollen, einem Holz und über 400 Pfirsichsteinen (Kap. 3.11). Die im Bach verlaufende Grenze zwischen dem sakralen Platz und der profanen Umgebung markierte man zusätzlich mit einer Pfahlreihe (Kap. 2.5.3). In diese war ein schmaler Langbau integriert (Kap. 2.5.2), der an die oft an Temenosmauern antiker Heiligtümer angebauten Portiken erinnert und wohl auch die gleiche Funktion wie diese gehabt hatte, nämlich das Aufbewahren von Weihegaben und Kultgerät (Kap. 5.3). Das reiche Fundmaterial, das sich in den Schichten der ersten Überschwemmung fand (s. Abb. 5./5), die um 205/210 n. Chr. dieses Heiligtum zerstört hatte, insbesondere die zahlreiche Keramik (Kap. 3.2.4), und die zum Teil auffallend wertvollen Kleinfunde (Kap. 3.3.3), dürften zum grössten Teil einst in diesem Langbau untergebracht gewesen sein. Ein als Glockenklöppel interpretiertes, stratifiziertes Objekt spricht dafür, dass die fünf grossen, 1944/1945 als Stapel aufgefundenen Eisenglocken vielleicht auch dem Heiligtum zuzuweisen sind (Kap. 3.4). In diesen Kontext passen zudem die überdurchschnittlich häufig kalzinierten Tierknochen (Kap. 3.10). Nach der Überschwemmung befestigte man für 215 n. Chr. (Kap. 4.2.4) das unterspülte Bachufer mit einer Uferverbauung (Kap. 2.6.1). Mit dem Bau eines weiteren, im Bach stehenden Langbaus (Kap. 2.6.2) stellte man 218 n. Chr. das Heiligtum auf der Insel in ähnlicher Form wieder her (Horizont 1b; s. Beil. 7). Von der Pfahlreihe, die wiederum die sakrale Insel von der profanen Umgebung abgrenzte, blieben indes nur wenige Pfähle erhalten. Dennoch ist der sakrale Charakter der Anlage gesichert. Ausser dem immer noch blühenden Pfirsichbaum ist es ein vor dem Langbau aufgestelltes Ensemble von mindestens 23 Terrakottafigurinen (s. Abb. 3.6/1), elf Veneres, zehn Matres, einem Jugendlichen in Kapuzenmantel und einem kindlichen Risus (Kap. 3.6; s. auch Kap. 2.6.3). In den Sedimenten der zweiten Überschwemmung, der diese Anlage um 225/230 n. Chr. zum Opfer gefallen war, fanden sich wiederum zahlreiche Keramikgefässe (Kap. 3.2.4) und zum Teil wertvolle Kleinfunde wie eine Glasperle mit Goldfolie (Kap. 3.8.2) und eine Fibel aus Silber (Kap. 3.3.3), die wohl ursprünglich im Langbau untergebracht waren (Kap. 5.3.2 mit Abb. 5/7). Weitere Funde mit sicherem oder möglichem sakralem Charakter finden sich unter den 1944/1945 geborgenen Funden (s. Abb. 5/8), etwa ein silberner Fingerring mit Merkurinschrift, ein silberner Lunula-Anhänger, eine silberne Kasserolle (Kap. 3.3.3), eine Glasflasche mit Schlangenfadenauflage (Kap. 3.8.2) und einige Bergkristalle (Kap. 3.8.4). Im Bereich der Terrakotten kamen ferner mehrere Münzen (Kap. 3.7) zum Vorschein, die vielleicht dort niedergelegt worden waren. Nach der zweiten Überschwemmung errichtete man um 231 n. Chr. am Bach eine Wassermühle (Horizont 2; Kap. 2.7; Beil. 8; Abb. 2.7/49). Ob das Heiligtum auf der Insel wieder aufgebaut oder aufgelassen wurde, muss mangels Hinweisen offen bleiben. Für den abgehobenen Zuflusskanal der Wassermühle verwendete man mehrere stehen gebliebene Pfähle der vorangegangenen Anlagen der Horizonte 1a und 1b. Obwohl die Wassermühle den 28 jährlichen Überschwemmungshorizonten (Kap. 2.2) und den Funden (Kap. 4.3.2; 4.4.4; 45) zufolge nur bis um 260 n. Chr., während gut einer Generation, bestand, musste sie mindestens zweimal erneuert werden – nachgewiesen sind drei Wasserräder, drei Mühlsteinpaare und vermutlich drei Podeste, auf denen jeweils das Mahlwerk ruhte. Grund für diese Umbauten war wohl der weiche, instabile Untergrund, der zu Verschiebungen geführt hatte, so dass das Zusammenspiel von Wellbaum bzw. Sternnabe und Übersetzungsrad nicht mehr funktionierte und das ganze System zerbrach. Die Analyse von Pollen aus dem Gehhorizont hat als Mahlgut Getreide vom Weizentyp nachgewiesen (Kap. 3.11.4). Das Abzeichen eines Benefiziariers (Kap. 3.3.2 mit Abb. 3.3/23,B71) könnte dafür sprechen, dass das verarbeitete Getreide zumindest zum Teil für das römische Militär bestimmt war (s. auch Kap. 6.2.3). Ein im Horizont 2 gefundener Schreibgriffel und weitere stili sowie eine Waage für das Wägen bis zu 35-40 kg schweren Waren aus dem Fundbestand von 1944/1945 könnten davon zeugen, dass das Getreide zu wägen und zu registrieren war (Kap. 3.4.2). Kurz nach 260 n. Chr. fiel die Wassermühle einem weiteren Hochwasser zum Opfer. Für den folgenden Horizont 3 (Beil. 9) brachte man einen Kiesboden ein und errichtete ein kleines Gebäude (Kap. 2.8). Hier war wohl wiederum eine Schmiede untergebracht, wie die zahlreichen Kalottenschlacken belegen (Kap. 3.9), die im Umfeld der kleinen Baus zum Vorschein kamen. Aufgrund der Funde (Kap. 4.4.4; 4.5) kann diese Werkstatt nur kurze Zeit bestanden haben, höchstens bis um 270 n. Chr., bevor sie einem weiteren Hochwasser zum Opfer fiel. Von der jüngsten Anlage, die wohl noch in römische Zeit datiert (Horizont 4; Beil. 10), war lediglich eine Konstruktion aus grossen Steinplatten zu fassen (Kap. 2.9.1). Wozu sie diente, muss offen bleiben. Auch der geringe Fundanfall spricht dafür, dass die Nutzung des Platzes, zumindest für die römische Zeit, allmählich ein Ende fand (Kap. 4.5). Zu den jüngsten Strukturen gehören mehrere Gruben (Kap. 2.9.2), die vielleicht der Lehmentnahme dienten. Mangels Funden bleibt ihre Datierung indes ungewiss. Insbesondere wissen wir nicht, ob sie noch in römische Zeit datieren oder jünger sind. Spätestens mit der fünften Überschwemmung, die zur endgültigen Verlandung führte und wohl schon in die frühe Neuzeit zu setzen ist, wurde der Platz aufgelassen und erst mit dem Bau der bestehenden Fensterfabrik Baumgartner wieder besetzt.

Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland

SUMMARY Campylobacteriosis has been the most common food-associated notifiable infectious disease in Switzerland since 1995. Contact with and ingestion of raw or undercooked broilers are considered the dominant risk factors for infection. In this study, we investigated the temporal relationship between the disease incidence in humans and the prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012. We use a time-series approach to describe the pattern of the disease by incorporating seasonal effects and autocorrelation. The analysis shows that prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers, with a 2-week lag, has a significant impact on disease incidence in humans. Therefore Campylobacter cases in humans can be partly explained by contagion through broiler meat. We also found a strong autoregressive effect in human illness, and a significant increase of illness during Christmas and New Year's holidays. In a final analysis, we corrected for the sampling error of prevalence in broilers and the results gave similar conclusions.

Time Variable Gravity: Contributions of GOCE Satellite Data to Monthly and Bi-monthly GRACE Gravity Estimates

A feasibility study by Pail et al. (Can GOCE help to improve temporal gravity field estimates? In: Ouwehand L (ed) Proceedings of the 4th International GOCE User Workshop, ESA Publication SP-696, 2011b) shows that GOCE (‘Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer’) satellite gravity gradiometer (SGG) data in combination with GPS derived orbit data (satellite-to-satellite tracking: SST-hl) can be used to stabilize and reduce the striping pattern of a bi-monthly GRACE (‘Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment’) gravity field estimate. In this study several monthly (and bi-monthly) combinations of GRACE with GOCE SGG and GOCE SST-hl data on the basis of normal equations are investigated. Our aim is to assess the role of the gradients (solely) in the combination and whether already one month of GOCE observations provides sufficient data for having an impact in the combination. The estimation of clean and stable monthly GOCE SGG normal equations at high resolution ( >  d/o 150) is found to be difficult, and the SGG component, solely, does not show significant added value to monthly and bi-monthly GRACE gravity fields. Comparisons of GRACE-only and combined monthly and bi-monthly solutions show that the striping pattern can only be reduced when using both GOCE observation types (SGG, SST-hl), and mainly between d/o 45 and 60.

Time relevance, citation of reporting guidelines, and breadth of literature search in systematic reviews in orthodontics

INTRODUCTION As the importance of systematic review (SR) conclusions relies upon the scientific rigor of methods and the currency of evidence, we aimed to investigate the currency of orthodontic SRs using as proxy the time from the initial search to publication. Additionally, SR information regarding reporting guidelines, registration, and literature searches were recorded when available. MATERIALS AND METHODS A systematic PubMed search was carried out using the Clinical Queries page to identify orthodontic SRs cited between 1 January 2008 and 7 November 2013. Data related to reporting guidelines, review registration, dates of review processing, literature search, and abstract reporting were retrieved and classified by journal type. Survival analysis was used to assess the time to reach predefined manuscript stages for orthodontic and non-orthodontic journals. RESULTS One hundred twenty seven of the originally identified 585 SRs were considered eligible. The median interval from search until publication was 13.2 months (interquartile range: IQR = 9.7 months) irrespective of the journal type. There was evidence (P = 0.05) that SRs published by non-orthodontic journals appeared in PubMed faster than in orthodontic journals (non-orthodontic: median = 6.5 months; IQR = 5.7 months; orthodontic: median = 10.2 months; IQR = 5.6 months) from submission to publication and from acceptance to publication (non-orthodontic: median = 1.5 months; IQR = 2.4 months; orthodontic: median = 6.0 months; IQR = 6.2 months; P < 0.001). More than half of these SRs did not cite adherence to any reporting guidelines, whereas all but five studies were not prospectively registered. Search of unpublished research was undertaken in approximately 21 per cent and 29 per cent of the SRs published in non-orthodontic and orthodontic periodicals, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that SR users should be aware that median time for orthodontic SRs from search to publication is 13.2 months. SRs published in non-orthodontic journals are likely to be more current in terms of submission until time to publication and acceptance until time to publication compared with those published in orthodontic journals.

Entwicklung einer real-time RT-PCR zum Nachweis von equinem Influenzavirus

Equine Influenza ist eine durch Influenza A-Viren verursachte, kontagiöse Respirationserkrankung beim Pferd. In dieser Arbeit wurde eine real-time RT-PCR in einem konservierten Abschnitt des Matrix-Segments des viralen Genoms für die schnelle und sensitive Diagnose von equinen Influenzaviren (EIV) und je eine RT-PCR Methode im Matrix- und im HA-Segment für die molekular-epidemiologische Charakterisierung der Viren entwickelt. Die Primer der real-time RT-PCR sind zu 99.4% der bekannten EIV-Sequenzen und zu 97.7% aller Influenza A-Sequenzen homolog. Die Homologie der Minor Groove Binder (MGB)-Sonde lag bei 99.3% und 99.6%. Diese hohen Werte ermöglichen die Anwendung des Assays für Influenzaviren bei anderen Spezies. Die diagnostische Eignung der Methode wurde mit Hilfe von 20 equinen, 11 porcinen sowie 2 aviären Proben verifiziert. Eine hohe Spezifität für Influenzaviren wurde experimentell und mittels Software-Simulation gezeigt. Die analytische Sensitivität des Tests lag bei 102–103 RNA-Kopien und 100–101 DNA-Kopien, was den Virusnachweis auch bei geringer Virusausscheidung ermöglicht. Alle amplifizierten EIV-Sequenzen konnten phylogenetisch den bekannten Linien zugeordnet werden.

Irrational Beliefs and Psychological Distress: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Since the cognitive revolution of the early 1950s, cognitions have been discussed as central components in the understanding and treatment of mental illnesses. Even though there is an extensive literature on the association between therapy-related cognitions such as irrational beliefs and psychological distress over the past 60 years, there is little meta-analytical knowledge about the nature of this association. Methods: The relationship between irrational beliefs and distress was examined based on a systematic review that included 100 independent samples, gathered in 83 primary studies, using a random-effect model. The overall effects as well as potential moderators were examined: (a) distress measure, (b) irrational belief measure, (c) irrational belief type, (d) method of assessment of distress, (e) nature of irrational beliefs, (f) time lag between irrational beliefs and distress assessment, (g) nature of stressful events, (h) sample characteristics (i.e. age, gender, income, and educational, marital, occupational and clinical status), (i) developer/validator status of the author(s), and (k) publication year and country. Results: Overall, irrational beliefs were positively associated with various types of distress, such as general distress, anxiety, depression, anger, and guilt (omnibus: r = 0.38). The following variables were significant moderators of the relationship between the intensity of irrational beliefs and the level of distress: irrational belief measure and type, stressful event, age, educational and clinical status, and developer/validator status of the author. Conclusions: Irrational beliefs and distress are moderately connected to each other; this relationship remains significant even after controlling for several potential covariates.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland: A nationwide study.

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that infections may be involved and that mini-epidemics thereof could result in space-time clustering of incident cases. Most previous studies support spatio-temporal clustering for leukaemia, while results for other diagnostic groups remain mixed. Few studies have corrected for uneven regional population shifts which can lead to spurious detection of clustering. We examined whether there is space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland identifying cases diagnosed at age <16 years between 1985 and 2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Knox tests were performed on geocoded residence at birth and diagnosis separately for leukaemia, acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL), lymphomas, tumours of the central nervous system, neuroblastomas and soft tissue sarcomas. We used Baker's Max statistic to correct for multiple testing and randomly sampled time-, sex- and age-matched controls from the resident population to correct for uneven regional population shifts. We observed space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia at birth (Baker's Max p = 0.045) but not at diagnosis (p = 0.98). Clustering was strongest for a spatial lag of <1 km and a temporal lag of <2 years (Observed/expected close pairs: 124/98; p Knox test = 0.003). A similar clustering pattern was observed for ALL though overall evidence was weaker (Baker's Max p = 0.13). Little evidence of clustering was found for other diagnostic groups (p > 0.2). Our study suggests that childhood leukaemia tends to cluster in space-time due to an etiologic factor present in early life.