Enregistrement des fluctuations de la pression intraoculaire sur 24 heures par une lentille de contact intégrant un capteur: tolérance et résultats chez 10 sujets sains

AbstractPurpose: to evaluate the tolerability, comfort and precision of the signal transmission of an ocular Sensor used for 24-hour intraocular pressure fluctuation monitoring in humans.Patients and methods: In this uncontrolled open trial involving 10 healthy volunteers an 8.7 mm radius prototype ocular telemetry Sensor (SENSIMED Triggerfish®, Lausanne, Switzerland) and an orbital bandage containing a loop antenna were applied and connected to a portable recorder after full eye examination. Best corrected visual acuity and position, surface wetting ability and mobility of the Sensor were assessed after 5 and 30 minutes, 4, 12 and 24 hours. Subjective wearing comfort was scored and activities documented in a logbook. After Sensor removal a full eye examination was repeated and the recorded signal analyzed.Results: The comfort score was high and did not fluctuate significantly over time. The mobility of the Sensor was limited across follow-up visits and its surface wetting ability remained good. Best corrected visual acuity was significantly reduced during Sensor wear and immediately after its removal (from 1.07 before, to 0.85 after, P-value 0.008). Three subjects developed a mild, transient corneal abrasion. In all but one participant we obtained usable data of a telemetric signal recording with sufficient sensitivity to depict ocular pulsation.Conclusions: This 24-hour- trial has encouraging results on the tolerability and functionality of the ocular telemetric Sensor for intraocular pressure fluctuation monitoring. Further studies with different Sensor radii conducted on a larger study population are needed to improve comfort, precision and interpretation of the telemetric signal.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policyoperates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bondmarket. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits andthen consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account forthis behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal taxpolicy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debthas the same or less persistence than other variables in the economyand declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, ifgovernments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets),debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases inresponse to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramseybehavior, US data conflicts.

Unemployment in an estimated new Keynesian model

We reformulate the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework by embedding the theory of unemployment proposed in Galí (2011a,b). Weestimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treatingthe unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of identification of wage markup and laborsupply shocks highlighted by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2008) intheir criticism of New Keynesian models, and allows us to estimate a"correct" measure of the output gap. In addition, the estimated modelcan be used to analyze the sources of unemployment fluctuations.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

On the sources of business cycles in the G-7

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source output, inflation and term structure fluctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources at different horizons.

Does money matter in shaping domestic business cycles? An international investigation (with appendices)

We study the contribution of money to business cycle fluctuations in the US,the UK, Japan, and the Euro area using a small scale structural monetary business cycle model. Constrained likelihood-based estimates of the parameters areprovided and time instabilities analyzed. Real balances are statistically importantfor output and inflation fluctuations. Their contribution changes over time. Models giving money no role provide a distorted representation of the sources of cyclicalfluctuations, of the transmission of shocks and of the events of the last 40 years.

Japan's lost decade: Does money have a role?

We study the contribution of the stock of money to the macroeconomic outcomesof the 1990s in Japan using a small scale structural model. Likelihood-basedestimates of the parameters are provided and time stabilities of the structural relationshipsanalyzed. Real balances are statistically important for output and inflationfluctuations and their role has changed over time. Models which give moneyno role give a distorted representation of the sources of cyclical fluctuations. Thesevere stagnation and the long deflation are driven by different causes.

ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering theWest, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of theMediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980.Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence coexist are local and transitory. The cyclicaloutlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West.

Aggregate consequences of limited contract enforceability

We study a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance investment with optimal financial contracts. Because of enforceability problems, contracts are constrained efficient. We show that limited enforceability amplifies the impact of technological innovations on aggregate output. More generally, we show that lower enforceability of contracts will be associated with greater aggregate volatility. A key assumption for this result is that defaulting entrepreneurs are not excluded from the market.

Embodied technical change and the fluctuations of wages and unemployment

The paper shows that a matching model where technological change is partially embodied in the job match is successful in explaining the variability of unemployment and vacancies. If we incorporate long-term wage contracts into the model, it also explains a number of stylized facts on the dynamics of real wages, which have been found in the empirical labor literature.

The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varyingcoefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables andin the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility,while a combination of technology, demand and monetary shocks explain variations inthe persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect changes over time in the transmission of technology shocks and in the variance of technology and of monetary policyshocks. Hours and labor productivity always increase in response to technology shocks.