The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reduced-order modelling of a high-voltage oscillatory impulse generator

The design of high-voltage equipment encompasses the study of oscillatory surges caused by transients such as those produced by switching. By obtaining a model, the response of which reconstructs that observed in the actual system, simulation studies and critical tests can be carried out on the model rather than on the equipment itself. In this paper, methods for the construction of simplified models are described and it is shown how the use of a complex model does not necessarily result in superior response pattern reconstruction.

Multiple PID mapping using neural networks in a MIMO steam generator system

A neural network was used to map three PID operating regions for a two-input two-output steam generator system. The network was used in stand alone feedforward operation to control the whole operating range of the process, after being trained from the PID controllers corresponding to each control region. The network inputs are the plant error signals, their integral, their derivative and a 4-error delay train.

Mixed multiplicities and the minimal number of generator of modules

Let (R, m) be a d-dimensional Noetherian local ring. In this work we prove that the mixed Buchsbaum-Rim multiplicity for a finite family of R-submodules of R(p) of finite colength coincides with the Buchsbaum-Rim multiplicity of the module generated by a suitable superficial sequence, that is, we generalize for modules the well-known Risler-Teissier theorem. As a consequence, we give a new proof of a generalization for modules of the fundamental Rees` mixed Multiplicity theorem, which was first proved by Kirby and Rees in (1994, [8]). We use the above result to give an upper bound for the minimal number of generators of a finite colength R-submodule of R(p) in terms of mixed multiplicities for modules, which generalize a similar bound obtained by Cruz and Verma in (2000, [5]) for m-primary ideals. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Single Synapse Information Coding in Intraburst Spike Patterns of Central Pattern Generator Motor Neurons

Burst firing is ubiquitous in nervous systems and has been intensively studied in central pattern generators (CPGs). Previous works have described subtle intraburst spike patterns (IBSPs) that, despite being traditionally neglected for their lack of relation to CPG motor function, were shown to be cell-type specific and sensitive to CPG connectivity. Here we address this matter by investigating how a bursting motor neuron expresses information about other neurons in the network. We performed experiments on the crustacean stomatogastric pyloric CPG, both in control conditions and interacting in real-time with computer model neurons. The sensitivity of postsynaptic to presynaptic IBSPs was inferred by computing their average mutual information along each neuron burst. We found that details of input patterns are nonlinearly and inhomogeneously coded through a single synapse into the fine IBSPs structure of the postsynaptic neuron following burst. In this way, motor neurons are able to use different time scales to convey two types of information simultaneously: muscle contraction (related to bursting rhythm) and the behavior of other CPG neurons (at a much shorter timescale by using IBSPs as information carriers). Moreover, the analysis revealed that the coding mechanism described takes part in a previously unsuspected information pathway from a CPG motor neuron to a nerve that projects to sensory brain areas, thus providing evidence of the general physiological role of information coding through IBSPs in the regulation of neuronal firing patterns in remote circuits by the CNS.

Bioluminescent sensor for naphthalene in air: Cell immobilization and evaluation with a dynamic standard atmosphere generator

A dynamic atmosphere generator with a naphthalene emission source has been constructed and used for the development and evaluation of a bioluminescence sensor based on the bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44 immobilized in 2% agar gel (101 cell mL(-1)) placed in sampling tubes. A steady naphthalene emission rate (around 7.3 nmol min(-1) at 27 degrees C and 7.4 mLmin(-1) of purified air) was obtained by covering the diffusion unit containing solid naphthalene with a PTFE filter membrane. The time elapsed from gelation of the agar matrix to analyte exposure (""maturation time"") was found relevant for the bioluminescence assays, being most favorable between 1.5 and 3 h. The maximum light emission, observed after 80 min, is dependent on the analyte concentration and the exposure time (evaluated between 5 and 20 min), but not on the flow rate of naphthalene in the sampling tube, over the range of 1.8-7.4 nmol min(-1). A good linear response was obtained between 50 and 260 nmol L-1 with a limit of detection estimated in 20 nmol L-1 far below the recommended threshold limit value for naphthalene in air. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Unified Load Generator for Geographically Distributed Generation ofNetwork Traffic

During the last decade, the Internet usage has been growing at an enormous rate which has beenaccompanied by the developments of network applications (e.g., video conference, audio/videostreaming, E-learning, E-Commerce and real-time applications) and allows several types ofinformation including data, voice, picture and media streaming. While end-users are demandingvery high quality of service (QoS) from their service providers, network undergoes a complex trafficwhich leads the transmission bottlenecks. Considerable effort has been made to study thecharacteristics and the behavior of the Internet. Simulation modeling of computer networkcongestion is a profitable and effective technique which fulfills the requirements to evaluate theperformance and QoS of networks. To simulate a single congested link, simulation is run with asingle load generator while for a larger simulation with complex traffic, where the nodes are spreadacross different geographical locations generating distributed artificial loads is indispensable. Onesolution is to elaborate a load generation system based on master/slave architecture.

Studie av subsynkron interaktion (SSTI) mellan ett HVDC system med spänningsstyva strömriktare och en närliggande generator

Syftet med examensarbetet är att studera den subsynkrona interaktionen (subsynchronous torsional interaktion, SSTI) mellan ett HVDC system med spänningsstyva strömriktare och en närliggande generator. Studien utförs med hjälp av datorsimuleringar och fokuserar på att studera dämpkaraktäristiken för SSTI. Studien ska visa hur faktorer såsom den överförda effektens storlek och riktning, vald driftmod och kraftsystemets kortslutningseffekt påverkar dämpkaraktäristiken. Rapporten beskriver subsynkron oscillation (SSO) och tillvägagångssättet vid en SSTI undersökning. En kort introduktion till HVDC Light ges. Studien visar att HVDC Light ökar dämpningen för det frekvensområde som är intressant. Resultaten presenteras som diagram med beräknad dämpkaraktäristik.

Design of a reconfigurable pseudorandom number generator for use in intelligent systems

This paper deals with the design of a network-on-chip reconfigurable pseudorandom number generation unit that can map and execute meta-heuristic algorithms in hardware. The unit can be configured to implement one of the following five linear generator algorithms: a multiplicative congruential, a mixed congruential, a standard multiple recursive, a mixed multiple recursive, and a multiply-with-carry. The generation unit can be used both as a pseudorandom and a message passing-based server, which is able to produce pseudorandom numbers on demand, sending them to the network-on-chip blocks that originate the service request. The generator architecture has been mapped to a field programmable gate array, and showed that millions of numbers in 32-, 64-, 96-, or 128-bit formats can be produced in tens of milliseconds. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The generator coordinate method for a reaction coordinate coupled to a harmonic oscillator bath

This paper investigates the usefulness of the generator coordinate method (GCM) for treating the dynamics of a reaction coordinate coupled to a bath of harmonic degrees of freedom. Models for the unimolecular dissociation and isomerization process (proton transfer) are analyzed. The GCM results, presented in analytical form, provide a very good description and are compared to other methods Like the basis set method and multiconfiguration time dependent self-consistent field. (C) 1998 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(98)50934-8].