A atitude diagnóstica enquanto instrumento de análise de ação educativa

A investigação realizada encontra-se inserida na área das Ciências de Educação, teve como objetivo principal compreender a atitude diagnóstica no quadro das situações educativas e pedagógicas desenvolvidas pelas educadoras de alguns jardins-de-infância, do distrito de Évora e como finalidade construir uma teoria de médio alcance elaborada numa estrutura explicativa do conjunto de fenómenos em contexto. Em educação de infância, o ato de cuidar estabelece-se numa relação de ajuda à criança e orienta-se para objetivos como promover o bem-estar, o conforto e o desenvolvimento em todas as dimensões. Isto implica conhecer e compreender cada criança ou grupo de crianças e as situações educativas e pedagógicas, em contexto. Compreende um exercício prático e para o qual se projeta uma prática de diagnóstico conciliadora da compreensão dos fenómenos sociais, estruturados em comportamentos, ações e atitudes específicas. Verificam-se lacunas quanto à forma como este exercício se cumpre e evolui nas diferentes fases. Repetem-se fragilidades quanto à mobilização de saberes, atitudes e competências a cada momento do agir. Constatam-se conceitos psicologizados e estruturas muito ténues e, por isso, necessitam ser estudadas, documentadas e teorizadas, particularmente numa dimensão praxiológica do conhecimento. O estudo inseriu-se no quadro das metodologias qualitativas, seguiu o paradigma interpretativo e o raciocínio indutivo. O referencial metodológico reuniu os princípios e procedimentos da Grounded Theory. A colheita de dados efetuou-se em jardins-de-infância da rede pública; a amostra teórica envolveu seis educadoras de infância e as crianças com idades compreendidas entre os três e os seis anos. Adotámos o uso de multitécnicas, entre as quais, a observação, a entrevista e a narrativa escrita. Fizemos vinte observações, repartidas pelos dois períodos do dia (manhã e tarde); vinte e seis entrevistas e seis narrativas escritas. Da análise dos dados emergiu a Atitude Diagnóstica como uma predisposição que caracteriza o ato de agir e as suas características foram-se tornando evidentes com o desenvolvimento da caracterização do processo de diagnóstico. Desta emergiu o modelo teórico definido em três eixos fundamentais. O “Processo de avaliação diagnóstica e planeamento” representativo das etapas, segundo as quais o educador desenvolve um conjunto de ações propiciadoras de um conhecimento previamente organizado, visando o bem-estar, o conforto, a segurança e o desenvolvimento. Em concomitância emerge o segundo, “Processo de intervenção educativa e pedagógica”, expressivo do conjunto de ações coerentes e evolutivas, empreendidas com vista à execução dos objetivos do ensino aprendizagem. Trata-se de dois processos sistematizados e perspetivados sob as dimensões diacrónica e sincrónica, compostos por uma sequência de pensamentos, permanentemente averbados pela “Atitude Diagnóstica” que dá um caráter coerente e evolutivo às tomadas de decisão nas ações educativas. Estes dois eixos integrados e entrelaçados são auxiliados por um terceiro, o “Processo de relação” que os harmoniza e dá especificidade a cada situação experienciada. A relação consolida-se e assume-se uma ajuda na confiabilidade necessária para a promoção da confiança entre os pares e o conhecimento vai evoluindo gradualmente em função do tempo e dos compromissos. O educador age com intencionalidade e para cada ator traça objetivos a cada momento do agir. A gestão do tempo, dos sentimentos e emoções funciona como variável importante na relação orientada sob a tríade: educador, criança e família e é concomitante com o Desenvolvimento pessoal e profissional do educador; ### ABSTRACT: The Diagnostic Attitude as an Analysis Instrument in Educational Action The conducted investigation is inserted in the area of Education Sciences. Its main aim was to understand the diagnostic attitude in the frame of the educative and pedagogical activities developed by the educators of some kindergartens in the district of Évora, and its purpose was to build a medium range theory elaborated in a structure explaining the whole of the phenomena in context. In child education, the act of caring is established in a relationship of help towards the child and is oriented towards goals as specific as promoting the well-being, the comfort and the development in all dimensions. This implies knowing and understanding each child or group of children and the educational and pedagogical situations in context. It includes a practical exercise that determines a complex scenario and for which we project a conciliating diagnostic practice towards the understanding of the social phenomena, structured in specific behaviors, actions and attitudes. We recognize some gaps regarding the way how this exercise is fulfilled and evolves in the different phases. Weaknesses regarding the mobilization of knowledge, attitudes and competences in each acting moment are repeated. We notice psichologized concepts and very superficial structures that need thus to be studied, documented and theorized, particularly in a praxeological dimension of knowledge. The study is inserted in the frame of qualitative methodologies, following an interpretative paradigm and an inductive reasoning. The methodological referential has gathered the principles and procedures of the Grounded Theory. The gathering of data was done in public kindergartens; the theoretical sample involved six child educators and children aged between three and six years. Several techniques were used, such as observation, interview and written narrative. We did twenty observations, divided between the two periods of the day (morning and afternoon); twenty-six interviews and six written narratives. The analysis of the data resulted in the Diagnostic attitude, like a predisposition that characterizes the act of acting and its characteristics became evident with the development of the characterization of the diagnostic process. From this rose the theoretical model defined in three fundamental axes. The Process of diagnostic evaluation and planning that represents the stages according to which the educator develops a group of actions that allow the transmission of a previously organized knowledge that aims well-being, comfort, safety and development. Concomitantly arises the second, Process of educative and pedagogic intervention, that expresses a group of coherent and evolving actions, undertaken to reach the goals of the teaching-learning process. These are two systematized processes, perspectivated under the diachronical and synchronical dimensions, composed by a sequence of thought, permanently confirmed by the Diagnostic attitude that gives a coherent and evolving character to the decision making in educative actions. These two integrated and intertwined axis are aided by a third one, Process of relation that harmonizes them and gives specificity to each experienced situation. The relation is consolidated and one assumes a kind of help in the trustworthiness necessary for the promotion of the trust between pairs and the knowledge keeps evolving gradually according to time and commitments. The educator acts with intent and sets goals for each actor at each acting moment. Time, feeling and emotion management works as an important variable in the relation oriented according to the triad educator, child and family, being also concomitant with the Personal and professional development of the educator.

Electromechanical properties of engineered lead free potassium sodium niobate based materials

K0.5Na0.5NbO3 (KNN), is the most promising lead free material for substituting lead zirconate titanate (PZT) which is still the market leader used for sensors and actuators. To make KNN a real competitor, it is necessary to understand and to improve its properties. This goal is pursued in the present work via different approaches aiming to study KNN intrinsic properties and then to identify appropriate strategies like doping and texturing for designing better KNN materials for an intended application. Hence, polycrystalline KNN ceramics (undoped, non-stoichiometric; NST and doped), high-quality KNN single crystals and textured KNN based ceramics were successfully synthesized and characterized in this work. Polycrystalline undoped, non-stoichiometric (NST) and Mn doped KNN ceramics were prepared by conventional ceramic processing. Structure, microstructure and electrical properties were measured. It was observed that the window for mono-phasic compositions was very narrow for both NST ceramics and Mn doped ceramics. For NST ceramics the variation of A/B ratio influenced the polarization (P-E) hysteresis loop and better piezoelectric and dielectric responses could be found for small stoichiometry deviations (A/B = 0.97). Regarding Mn doping, as compared to undoped KNN which showed leaky polarization (P-E) hysteresis loops, B-site Mn doped ceramics showed a well saturated, less-leaky hysteresis loop and a significant properties improvement. Impedance spectroscopy was used to assess the role of Mn and a relation between charge transport – defects and ferroelectric response in K0.5Na0.5NbO3 (KNN) and Mn doped KNN ceramics could be established. At room temperature the conduction in KNN which is associated with holes transport is suppressed by Mn doping. Hence Mn addition increases the resistivity of the ceramic, which proved to be very helpful for improving the saturation of the P-E loop. At high temperatures the conduction is dominated by the motion of ionized oxygen vacancies whose concentration increases with Mn doping. Single crystals of potassium sodium niobate (KNN) were grown by a modified high temperature flux method. A boron-modified flux was used to obtain the crystals at a relatively low temperature. XRD, EDS and ICP analysis proved the chemical and crystallographic quality of the crystals. The grown KNN crystals exhibit higher dielectric permittivity (29,100) at the tetragonal-to-cubic phase transition temperature, higher remnant polarization (19.4 μC/cm2) and piezoelectric coefficient (160 pC/N) when compared with the standard KNN ceramics. KNN single crystals domain structure was characterized for the first time by piezoforce response microscopy. It could be observed that <001> - oriented potassium sodium niobate (KNN) single crystals reveal a long range ordered domain pattern of parallel 180° domains with zig-zag 90° domains. From the comparison of KNN Single crystals to ceramics, It is argued that the presence in KNN single crystal (and absence in KNN ceramics) of such a long range order specific domain pattern that is its fingerprint accounts for the improved properties of single crystals. These results have broad implications for the expanded use of KNN materials, by establishing a relation between the domain patterns and the dielectric and ferroelectric response of single crystals and ceramics and by indicating ways of achieving maximised properties in KNN materials. Polarized Raman analysis of ferroelectric potassium sodium niobate (K0.5Na0.5)NbO3 (KNN) single crystals was performed. For the first time, an evidence is provided that supports the assignment of KNN single crystals structure to the monoclinic symmetry at room temperature. Intensities of A′, A″ and mixed A′+A″ phonons have been theoretically calculated and compared with the experimental data in dependence of crystal rotation, which allowed the precise determination of the Raman tensor coefficients for (non-leaking) modes in monoclinic KNN. In relation to the previous literature, this study clarifies that assigning monoclinic phase is more suitable than the orthorhombic one. In addition, this study is the basis for non-destructive assessments of domain distribution by Raman spectroscopy in KNN-based lead-free ferroelectrics with complex structures. Searching a deeper understanding of the electrical behaviour of both KNN single crystal and polycrystalline materials for the sake of designing optimized KNN materials, a comparative study at the level of charge transport and point defects was carried out by impedance spectroscopy. KNN single crystals showed lower conductivity than polycrystals from room temperature up to 200 ºC, but above this temperature polycrystalline KNN displays lower conductivity. The low temperature (T < 200 ºC) behaviour reflects the different processing conditions of both ceramics and single crystals, which account for less defects prone to charge transport in the case of single crystals. As temperature increases (T > 200 ºC) single crystals become more conductive than polycrystalline samples, in which grain boundaries act as barriers to charge transport. For even higher temperatures the conductivity difference between both is increased due to the contribution of ionic conduction in single crystals. Indeed the values of activation energy calculated to the high temperature range (T > 300 ºC) were 1.60 and 0.97 eV, confirming the charge transport due to ionic conduction and ionized oxygen vacancies in single crystals and polycrystalline KNN, respectively. It is suggested that single crystals with low defects content and improved electromechanical properties could be a better choice for room temperature applications, though at high temperatures less conductive ceramics may be the choice, depending on the targeted use. Aiming at engineering the properties of KNN polycrystals towards the performance of single crystals, the preparation and properties study of (001) – oriented (K0.5Na0.5)0.98Li0.02NbO3 (KNNL) ceramics obtained by templated grain growth (TGG) using KNN single crystals as templates was undertaken. The choice of KNN single crystals templates is related with their better properties and to their unique domain structure which were envisaged as a tool for templating better properties in KNN ceramics too. X-ray diffraction analysis revealed for the templated ceramics a monoclinic structure at room temperature and a Lotgering factor (f) of 40% which confirmed texture development. These textured ceramics exhibit a long range ordered domain pattern consisting of 90º and 180º domains, similar to the one observed in the single crystals. Enhanced dielectric (13017 at TC), ferroelectric (2Pr = 42.8 μC/cm2) and piezoelectric (d33 = 280 pC/N) properties are observed for textured KNNL ceramics as compared to the randomly oriented ones. This behaviour is suggested to be due to the long range ordered domain patterns observed in the textured ceramics. The obtained results as compared with the data previously reported on texture KNN based ceramics confirm that superior properties were found due to ordered repeated domain pattern. This study provides an useful approach towards properties improvement of KNN-based piezoelectric ceramics. Overall, the present results bring a significant contribution to the pool of knowledge on the properties of sodium potassium niobate materials: a relation between the domain patterns and di-, ferro-, and piezo-electric response of single crystals and ceramics was demonstrated and ways of engineering maximised properties in KNN materials, for example by texturing were established. This contribution is envisaged to have broad implications for the expanded use of KNN over the alternative lead-based materials.

Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Methoxypyrazine removal in grape juice: Development of a removal system using odorant and pheromone binding proteins coupled with bentonite fining

Multicoloured Asian Lady Beetles (MALB) and 7-spot Lady Beetles that infect vineyards can secrete alkyl-methoxypyrazines when they are processed with the grapes, resulting in wines containing a taint. The main methoxypyrazine associated with this taint is 3-isopropyl-2-methoxypyrazine (IPMP). The wines are described as having aroma and flavours of peanut butter, peanut shells, asparagus and earthy which collectively, have become known as “ladybug taint”. To date, there are no known fining agents used commercially added to juice or wine that are effective in removing this taint. The goal of this project was to use previously identified proteins with an ability to bind to methoxypyrazines at low pH, and subsequently develop a binding assay to test the ability of these proteins to bind to and remove methoxypyrazines from grape juice. The piglet odorant binding protein (plOBP) and mouse major urinary protein (mMUP) were identified, cloned and expressed in the Pichia pastoris expression system. Protein expression was induced using methanol and the proteins were subsequently purified from the induction media using anion exchange chromatography. The purified proteins were freeze-dried and rehydrated prior to use in the methoxypyrazine removal assay. The expression and purification system resulted in yields of approximately 78% of purified plOBP and 62% of purified mMUP from expression to rehydration. Purified protein values were 87 mg of purified plOPB per litre of induction media and 19 mg of purified mMUP per litre of induction medium. In order to test the ability of the protein to bind to the MPs, an MP removal assay was developed. In the assay, the purified protein is incubated with either IPMP or 3-isobutyl-2-methoxypyrazine (IBMP) for two hours in either buffer or grape juice. Bentonite is then used to capture the protein-MP complex and the bentonite-protein-MP complex is then removed from solution by filtration. Residual MP is measured in solution following the MP removal assay and compared to that in the starting solution by Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (GC/MS). GC/MS results indicated that the mMUP was capable of removing IBMP and IPMP from 300 ng/L in buffer pH 4.0, buffer pH 3.5 and Riesling Juice pH 3.5 down to the limit of quantification of the instrument, which is 6ng/L and 2ng/L for IBMP and IPMP, respectively. The results for the plOBP showed that although it could remove some IBMP, it was only approximately 50-70 ng/L more than bentonite treatment followed by filtration, resulting in approximately 100 ng/L of the MPs being left in solution. pIOBP was not able to remove IPMP in buffer pH 3.5 using this system above that removed by bentonite alone. As well, the pIOBP was not able to remove any additional MPs from Chardonnay juice pH 3.5 above that already removed by the bentonite and filtration alone. The mouse MUP was shown to be a better candidate protein for removal of MPs from juice using this system.

Julien Macho et sa contribution à la vie culturelle de Lyon

Cette thèse veut déterminer la contribution de Julien Macho, membre de l’Ordre des ermites de saint Augustin de Lyon, à la vie culturelle de son époque. Son œuvre n’est pas, à proprement parler, une œuvre originale, mais un ensemble de traductions du latin au français, de corrections et d’éditions de textes religieux ou moraux. Ses livres ont été publiés dans une courte période, entre 1473 et 1480, et plusieurs rééditions, de la fin du 15e s. et du début du 16e s., sont connues. Il est question, à cette époque, à Lyon comme ailleurs en France, d’un grand désordre dans l’organisation religieuse et les critiques se font entendre de part et d’autre du pays. Devant la décadence de l’Église, la piété privée commence à se développer, une piété qui a besoin d’un nouveau support pour rendre accessibles les enseignements moraux à une population bourgeoise de plus en plus lettrée. Or, conscient de ces récents développements, Macho oriente tout son travail dans le but précis de rejoindre, en langue vernaculaire, un vaste auditoire. L’objectif de cette thèse de doctorat est d’analyser une partie de l’œuvre de Macho dans le but de mieux comprendre les intentions de l’auteur. Ce but premier permettra aussi de documenter, par un biais nouveau, une période charnière du développement intellectuel occidental, le passage du Moyen Âge à la Renaissance. Le travail comporte trois parties. Dans la première partie, il a fallu entreprendre une étude approfondie des contextes social, historique et intellectuel de cette période : tout d’abord, l’histoire de l’Ordre des ermites de saint Augustin et de l’enseignement offert à leurs membres, dans le contexte de la spiritualité en France à la fin du 15e siècle; par la suite, il convenait de présenter un survol de la ville de Lyon, de son Église et du développement de l’imprimerie dans cette ville. La deuxième partie porte sur les œuvres attribuées, à tort ou à raison, à Macho, vu la carence de recherches sur Julien Macho lui-même, et sur une enquête systématique pour apporter une preuve de l’existence de ce traducteur. La troisième partie s’attache à une lecture de deux œuvres de l’augustin lyonnais : une de longue tradition littéraire, Ésope, l’adaptation d’un recueil de fables, et une religieuse, rattachée à la pratique religieuse contemporaine, le Mirouer de la redemption de lumain lignage. Ésope est l’œuvre la plus originale de Macho, c’est-à-dire l’ouvrage où il est le plus intervenu comparativement au texte original. La comparaison avec sa source, l’Äsop latin-allemand d’Heinrich Steinhöwel, a montré comment le fabuliste lyonnais s’en est détaché pour ajouter à son texte un grand nombre de proverbes. Le Mirouer de la redemption de lumain lignage, une somme de toutes les observances de la vie religieuse et des lectures qu’un chrétien doit connaître, intègre des parties d’une autre œuvre bien connue, la Légende dorée, une pratique que l’on ne retrouve pas dans les autres traductions françaises du Speculum humanae salvationis. Loin d’être une analyse exhaustive de l’œuvre, la compilation des citations et du contenu même du texte permet de cerner en quoi consistait une certaine pratique de la religion au 15e siècle. Il en résulte un panorama du contexte culturel dans lequel vivait Julien Macho, théologien, prieur et traducteur et des œuvres qui lui sont attribuée. Un personnage dont l’étude montre un intellectuel représentatif de son époque, la fin du 15e siècle.

Films minces supramoléculaires de copolymères de PS-P4VP réalisés par trempage

Bien que ce soit un procédé industriel répandu, les films de copolymères à blocs préparés par trempage (« dip-coating ») sont moins étudiés que ceux obtenus par tournette (« spin-coating »). Pourtant, il est possible grâce à cette technique de contrôler précisément les caractéristiques de ces films. Au-delà de la méthode de fabrication, la capacité de modifier la morphologie des films trempés à l’aide d’autres facteurs externes est un enjeu primordial pour leur utilisation dans les nanotechnologies. Nous avons choisi, ici, d’étudier l’influence d’une petite molécule sur la morphologie de films supramoléculaires réalisés par « dip-coating » à partir de solutions de poly(styrène-b-4-vinyl pyridine) (PS-P4VP) dans le tétrahydrofurane (THF). En présence de 1-naphtol (NOH) et d’1-acide napthoïque (NCOOH), qui se complexent par pont hydrogène au bloc P4VP, ces films donnent, respectivement, une morphologie en nodules (sphères) et en stries (cylindres horizontaux). Des études par spectroscopie infrarouge ont permis de mesurer la quantité de petite molécule dans ces films minces, qui varie avec la vitesse de retrait mais qui s’avère être identique pour les deux petites molécules, à une vitesse de retrait donnée. Cependant, des études thermiques ont montré qu’une faible fraction de petite molécule est dispersée dans le PS (davantage de NOH que de NCOOH à cause de la plus faible liaison hydrogène du premier). La vitesse de retrait est un paramètre clé permettant de contrôler à la fois l’épaisseur et la composition du film supramoléculaire. L’évolution de l’épaisseur peut être modélisée par deux régimes récemment découverts. Aux faibles vitesses, l’épaisseur décroît (régime de capillarité), atteint un minimum, puis augmente aux vitesses plus élevées (régime de drainage). La quantité de petite molécule augmente aux faibles vitesses pour atteindre un plateau correspondant à la composition de la solution aux vitesses les plus élevées. Des changements de morphologie, à la fois liés à l’épaisseur et à la quantité de petite molécule, sont alors observés lorsque la vitesse de retrait est modifiée. Le choix du solvant est aussi primordial dans le procédé de « dip-coating » et a été étudié en utilisant le chloroforme, qui est un bon solvant pour les deux blocs. Il s’avère qu’à la fois la composition ainsi que la morphologie des films de PS-P4VP complexés sont différentes par rapport aux expériences réalisées dans le THF. Premièrement, la quantité de petite molécule reste constante avec la vitesse de retrait mais les films sont plus riches en NCOOH qu’en NOH. Deuxièmement, la morphologie des films contenant du NOH présente des stries ainsi que des lamelles à plat, tandis que seules ces dernières sont observables pour le NCOOH. Ce comportement est essentiellement dû à la quantité différente de petite molécule modulée par leur force de complexation différente avec le P4VP dans le chloroforme. Enfin, ces films ont été utilisés pour l’adsorption contrôlée de nanoparticules d’or afin de guider leur organisation sur des surfaces recouvertes de PS-P4VP. Avant de servir comme gabarits, un recuit en vapeurs de solvant permet soit d’améliorer l’ordre à longue distance des nodules de P4VP, soit de modifier la morphologie des films selon le solvant utilisé (THF ou chloroforme). Ils peuvent être ensuite exposés à une solution de nanoparticules d’or de 15 nm de diamètre qui permet leur adsorption sélective sur les nodules (ou stries) de P4VP.

A Diagnostic and Modeling Study on the Onset of Summer Monsoon over South Asia

This study focuses on the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been using a semi-objective method to define monsoon onset. The main objectives of the study are to understand the monsoon onset processes, to simulate monsoon onset in a GCM using as input the atmospheric conditions and Sea Surface Temperature, 10 days earlier to the onset, to develop a method for medium range prediction of the date of onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and to examine the possibility of objectively defining the date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK). It gives a broad description of regional monsoon systems and monsoon onsets over Asia and Australia. Asian monsoon includes two separate subsystems, Indain monsoon and East Asian monsoon. It is seen from this study that the duration of the different phases of the onset process are dependent on the period of ISO. Based on the study of the monsoon onset process, modeling studies can be done for better understanding of the ocean-atmosphere interaction especially those associated with the warm pool in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

Atmospheric downwelling longwave radiation at the surface during cloudless and overcast conditions. Measurements and modeling

Atmospheric downwelling longwave radiation is an important component of the terrestrial energy budget; since it is strongly related with the greenhouse effect, it remarkably affects the climate. In this study, I evaluate the estimation of the downwelling longwave irradiance at the terrestrial surface for cloudless and overcast conditions using a one-dimensional radiative transfer model (RTM), specifically the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART). The calculations performed by using this model were compared with pyrgeometer measurements at three different European places: Girona (NE of the Iberian Peninsula), Payerne (in the East of Switzerland), and Heselbach (in the Black Forest, Germany). Several studies of sensitivity based on the radiative transfer model have shown that special attention on the input of temperature and water content profiles must be held for cloudless sky conditions; for overcast conditions, similar sensitivity studies have shown that, besides the atmospheric profiles, the cloud base height is very relevant, at least for optically thick clouds. Also, the estimation of DLR in places where radiosoundings are not available is explored, either by using the atmospheric profiles spatially interpolated from the gridded analysis data provided by European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), or by applying a real radiosounding of a nearby site. Calculations have been compared with measurements at all sites. During cloudless sky conditions, when radiosoundings were available, calculations show differences with measurements of -2.7 ± 3.4 Wm-2 (Payerne). While no in situ radiosoundings are available, differences between modeling and measurements were about 0.3 ± 9.4 Wm-2 (Girona). During overcast sky conditions, when in situ radiosoundings and cloud properties (derived from an algorithm that uses spectral infrared and microwave ground based measurements) were available (Black Forest), calculations show differences with measurements of -0.28 ± 2.52 Wm2. When using atmospheric profiles from the ECMWF and fixed values of liquid water path and droplet effective radius (Girona) calculations show differences with measurements of 4.0 ± 2.5 Wm2. For all analyzed sky conditions, it has been confirmed that estimations from radiative transfer modeling are remarkably better than those obtained by simple parameterizations of atmospheric emissivity.

A new perspective on Southern hemisphere storm-tracks.

A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.

The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses

The behavior of the Asian summer monsoon is documented and compared using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) Reanalysis. In terms of seasonal mean climatologies the results suggest that, in several respects, the ERA is superior to the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis. The overall better simulation of the precipitation and hence the diabatic heating field over the monsoon domain in ERA means that the analyzed circulation is probably nearer reality. In terms of interannual variability, inconsistencies in the definition of weak and strong monsoon years based on typical monsoon indices such as All-India Rainfall (AIR) anomalies and the large-scale wind shear based dynamical monsoon index (DMI) still exist. Two dominant modes of interannual variability have been identified that together explain nearly 50% of the variance. Individually, they have many features in common with the composite flow patterns associated with weak and strong monsoons, when defined in terms of regional AIR anomalies and the large-scale DMI. The reanalyses also show a common dominant mode of intraseasonal variability that describes the latitudinal displacement of the tropical convergence zone from its oceanic-to-continental regime and essentially captures the low-frequency active/break cycles of the monsoon. The relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability has been investigated by considering the probability density function (PDF) of the principal component of the dominant intraseasonal mode. Based on the DMI, there is an indication that in years with a weaker monsoon circulation, the PDF is skewed toward negative values (i,e., break conditions). Similarly, the PDFs for El Nino and La Nina years suggest that El Nino predisposes the system to more break spells, although the sample size may limit the statistical significance of the results.

A note on atmospheric predictability

Using the method of Lorenz (1982), we have estimated the predictability of a recent version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model using two different estimates of the initial error corresponding to 6- and 24-hr forecast errors, respectively. For a 6-hr forecast error of the extratropical 500-hPa geopotential height field, a potential increase in forecast skill by more than 3 d is suggested, indicating a further increase in predictability by another 1.5 d compared to the use of a 24-hr forecast error. This is due to a smaller initial error and to an initial error reduction resulting in a smaller averaged growth rate for the whole 7-d forecast. A similar assessment for the tropics using the wind vector fields at 850 and 250 hPa suggests a huge potential improvement with a 7-d forecast providing the same skill as a 1-d forecast now. A contributing factor to the increase in the estimate of predictability is the apparent slow increase of error during the early part of the forecast.

Global observations and forecast skill

The impact of selected observing systems on forecast skill is explored using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40) system. Analyses have been produced for a surface-based observing system typical of the period prior to 1945/1950, a terrestrial-based observing system typical of the period 1950-1979 and a satellite-based observing system consisting of surface pressure and satellite observations. Global prediction experiments have been undertaken using these analyses as initial states, and which are available every 6 h, for the boreal winters of 1990/1991 and 2000/2001 and the summer of 2000, using a more recent version of the ECMWF model. The results show that for 500-hPa geopotential height, as a representative field, the terrestrial system in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is only slightly inferior to the control system, which makes use of all observations for the analysis, and is also more accurate than the satellite system. There are indications that the skill of the terrestrial system worsens slightly and the satellite system improves somewhat between 1990/1991 and 2000/2001. The forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by the satellite information and this dominance is larger in the latter period. The overall skill is only slightly worse than that of the Northern Hemisphere. In the tropics (20 degrees S-20 degrees N), using the wind at 850 and 250 hPa as representative fields, the information content in the terrestrial and satellite systems is almost equal and complementary. The surface-based system has very limited skill restricted to the lower troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere. Predictability calculations show a potential for a further increase in predictive skill of 1-2 d in the extratropics of both hemispheres, but a potential for a major improvement of many days in the tropics. As well as the Eulerian perspective of predictability, the storm tracks have been calculated from all experiments and validated for the extratropics to provide a Lagrangian perspective.

Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

Distribution and statistics of African mesoscale convective weather systems based on the ISCCP Meteosat imagery

This paper provides for the first time an objective short-term (8 yr) climatology of African convective weather systems based on satellite imagery. Eight years of infrared International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-European Space Agency's Meteorological Satellite (ISCCP-Meteosat) satellite imagery has been analyzed using objective feature identification, tracking, and statistical techniques for the July, August, and September periods and the region of Africa and the adjacent Atlantic ocean. This allows various diagnostics to be computed and used to study the distribution of mesoscale and synoptic-scale convective weather systems from mesoscale cloud clusters and squall lines to tropical cyclones. An 8-yr seasonal climatology (1983-90) and the seasonal cycle of this convective activity are presented and discussed. Also discussed is the dependence of organized convection for this region, on the orography, convective, and potential instability and vertical wind shear using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data.

New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks

The aim of this paper is to explore the use of both an Eulerian and system-centered method of storm track diagnosis applied to a wide range of meteorological fields at multiple levels to provide a range of perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter transient motions and to give new insight into the storm track organization and behavior. The data used are primarily from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses project extended with operational analyses to the period 1979-2000. This is supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Goddard Earth Observing System 1 reanalyses. The range of fields explored include the usual mean sea level pressure and the lower- and upper-tropospheric height, meridional wind, vorticity, and temperature, as well as the potential vorticity (PV) on a 330-K isentropic surface (PV330) and potential temperature on a PV = 2 PVU surface (theta(PV2)). As well as reporting the primary analysis based on feature tracking, the standard Eulerian 2-6-day bandpass filtered variance analysis is also reported and contrasted with the tracking diagnostics. To enable the feature points to be identified as extrema for all the chosen fields, a planetary wave background structure is removed at each data time. The bandpass filtered variance derived from the different fields yield a rich picture of the nature and comparative magnitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, and of the Siberian and Mediterranean candidates for storm tracks. The feature tracking allows the cyclonic and anticyclonic activities to be considered seperately. The analysis indicates that anticyclonic features are generally much weaker with less coherence than the cyclonic systems. Cyclones and features associated with them are shown to have much greater coherence and give tracking diagnostics that create a vivid storm track picture that includes the aspects highlighted by the variances as well as highlighting aspects that are not readily available from Eulerian studies. In particular, the upper-tropospheric features as shown by negative theta(PV2), for example, occur in a band spiraling around the hemisphere from the subtropical North Atlantic eastward to the high latitudes of the same ocean basin. Lower-troposphere storm tracks occupy more limited longitudinal sectors, with many of the individual storms possibly triggered from the upper-tropospheric disturbances in the spiral band of activity.