Análise de perdas na rede de distribuição de água em um subsetor da cidade de Presidente Prudente - SP

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS

Determinantes de la salida de IED y efectos en el país emisor: evidencia de América Latina

Desde el inicio de los años 2000, la inversión extranjera directa (IED) realizada por compañías latinoamericanas viene creciendo de manera pronunciada. Si bien la mayoría de los flujos de inversiones corresponden a empresas radicadas en las grandes economías (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, México y Colombia), las pequeñas economías también han sido testigos de la creciente internacionalización de sus empresas locales. Este documento tiene dos aportes principales. En primer lugar, se analizan las estrategias adoptadas por las empresas multinacionales de América Latina cuando deciden invertir en otros países, y se hace hincapié en las diferencias detectadas según el sector y el tamaño del país de origen. Con este objeto, se creó una nueva base de datos, que contiene información cuantitativa acerca de las principales operaciones llevadas a cabo en el extranjero por las empresas latinoamericanas (tanto la inversión en nuevas plantas como las fusiones y adquisiciones), sobre la base del banco de datos fDi Markets y la información de Thomson Reuters Datastream. En segundo lugar, se examinan los efectos que tiene en el país emisor la salida de IED mediante el estudio de un caso correspondiente a Costa Rica, por medio de una muestra representativa de empresas que invierten en otros países.

A new sampling strategy for the Shewhart control chart monitoring a process with wandering mean

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Qualidade das medidas antropométricas produzidas em unidades de atenção básica à saúde da região de Botucatu-SP, Brasil

The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of weight measurements produced in Primary Health Care Centers in Botucatu and surroundings. 14 Health Care Centers were included, all of them located in four towns in the area of Botucatu (4,555; 5,656; 18,761 and 128,397 inhabitants). General conditions and scale calibration conditions found in those Health Care Centers were evaluated. In order to evaluate the weight accuracy obtained by the local team, 10 adult users of each Center were addressed by the rater during the service routine in order to get a new weight evaluation, immediately after the measurement made by the team. The statistic method applied for checking the weight measurement held in the Heath Care Center and the scales accuracy was the measurement error technique (MET). The results have showed that out of 19 scales, 6 of them overestimated the weight by 50 grams, 1 of them underestimated the weight by 200 grams and the others were accurate. Evaluated as a group, the result of the scale MET was 44.3g. Regarding the conformity of the measures obtained by the MET of the adults weighing in the Health Care Centers compared to the ones obtained by the researcher, the expected result was obtained in only one Center (< 100g). The results have showed data compromise, rather due to lack of health team training than due to the conditions of the equipment used for the measurement.

Cross-cultural adaptation and assessment of the reliability and validity of the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) for the Brazilian-Portuguese language

The use of patient-orientated questionnaires is of utmost importance in assessing the outcome of spine surgery. Standardisation, using a common set of outcome measures, is essential to aid comparisons across studies/in registries. The Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) is a short, multidimensional outcome instrument validated for patients with spinal disorders. This study aimed to produce a Brazilian-Portuguese version of the COMI. A cross-cultural adaptation of the COMI into Brazilian-Portuguese was carried out using established guidelines. 104 outpatients with chronic LBP (> 3 months) were recruited from a Public Health Spine Medical Care Centre. They completed a questionnaire booklet containing the newly translated COMI, and other validated symptom-specific questionnaires: Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and Roland Morris disability scale (RM), and a pain visual analogue scale. All patients completed a second questionnaire within 7-10 days to assess reproducibility. The COMI summary score displayed minimal floor and ceiling effects. On re-test, the responses for each individual domain of the COMI were within 1 category in 98% patients for the domain 'function', 96% for 'symptom-specific well-being', 97% for 'general quality of life', 99% for 'social disability' and 100% for 'work disability'. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC2,1) for COMI pain and COMI summary scores were 0.91-0.96, which compared favourably with the corresponding values for the RM (ICC, 0.99) and ODI (ICC, 0.98). The standard error of measurement for the COMI was 0.6, giving a "minimum detectable change" (MDC95%) of approximately 1.7 points i.e., the minimum change to be considered "real change" beyond measurement error. The COMI scores correlated as hypothesised (Rho, 0.4-0.8) with the other symptom-specific questionnaires. The reproducibility of the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the COMI was comparable to that of other language versions. The COMI scores correlated in the expected manner with existing but longer symptom-specific questionnaires suggesting good convergent validity for the COMI. The Brazilian-Portuguese COMI represents a valuable tool for Brazilian study-centres in future multicentre clinical studies and surgical registries.

Educational mismathc in Italian an European labour markets (starting from the UK)

The present doctoral thesis is structured as a collection of three essays. The first essay, “SOC(HE)-Italy: a classification for graduate occupations” presents the conceptual basis, the construction, the validation and the application to the Italian labour force of the occupational classification termed SOC(HE)-Italy. I have developed this classification under the supervision of Kate Purcell during my period as a visiting research student at the Warwick Institute for Emplyment Research. This classification links the constituent tasks and duties of a particular job to the relevant knowledge and skills imparted via Higher Education (HE). It is based onto the SOC(HE)2010, an occupational classification first proposed by Kate Purcell in 2013, but differently constructed. In the second essay “Assessing the incidence and wage effects of overeducation among Italian graduates using a new measure for educational requirements” I utilize this classification to build a valid and reliable measure for job requirements. The lack of an unbiased measure for this dimension constitutes one of the major constraints to achieve a generally accepted measurement of overeducation. Estimations of overeducation incidence and wage effects are run onto AlmaLaurea data from the survey on graduates career paths. I have written this essay and obtained these estimates benefiting of the help and guidance of Giovanni Guidetti and Giulio Pedrini. The third and last essay titled “Overeducation in the Italian labour market: clarifying the concepts and addressing the measurement error problem” addresses a number of theoretical issues concerning the concepts of educational mismatch and overeducation. Using Istat data from RCFL survey I run estimates of the ORU model for the whole Italian labour force. In my knowledge, this is the first time ever such model is estimated on such population. In addition, I adopt the new measure of overeducation based onto the SOC(HE)-Italy classification.

Body Mass Index and Cancer Risk: The Evidence for Causal Association

Increased body mass index (BMI), as an approximation of body adiposity, is a risk factor for developing several adult malignancies. To quantify these risks, we reported a comprehensive systematic review (Lancet 2008; 371: 569-78) of prospective observational studies determining associations between BMI and risk of incident cancer for 20 cancer types. We demonstrated that associations are: (i) sex-specific; (ii) exist for a wider range of malignancies than previously thought; and (iii) are broadly consistent across geographic populations. In the present paper, we tested these data against the Bradford-Hill criteria of causal association, and argue that the available data support strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence and probably analogy. However, the experimental evidence supporting reversibility is currently lacking, though indirect evidence from longitudinal data in cohort studies and long-term follow-up post-bariatric surgery is emerging. We additionally assessed these data against appropriate adjustment for available confounding factors; measurement error and study design; and residual confounding; and found lack of alternative explanations. We conclude that there is considerable evidence to support a causal association between BMI and risk for many cancer types, but in order to establish the role of weight control in cancer prevention, there is a need to develop trial frameworks in which to better test reversibility.

The Lower Limb Functional Index: development and clinimetric properties

Background Existing lower-limb, region-specific, patient-reported outcome measures have clinimetric limitations, including limitations in psychometric characteristics (eg, lack of internal consistency, lack of responsiveness, measurement error) and the lack of reported practical and general characteristics. A new patient-reported outcome measure, the Lower Limb Functional Index (LLFI), was developed to address these limitations. Objective The purpose of this study was to overcome recognized deficiencies in existing lower-limb, region-specific, patient-reported outcome measures through: (1) development of a new lower-extremity outcome scale (ie, the LLFI) and (2) evaluation of the clinimetric properties of the LLFI using the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) as a criterion measure. Design This was a prospective observational study. Methods The LLFI was developed in a 3-stage process of: (1) item generation, (2) item reduction with an expert panel, and (3) pilot field testing (n=18) for reliability, responsiveness, and sample size requirements for a larger study. The main study used a convenience sample (n=127) from 10 physical therapy clinics. Participants completed the LLFI and LEFS every 2 weeks for 6 weeks and then every 4 weeks until discharge. Data were used to assess the psychometric, practical, and general characteristics of the LLFI and the LEFS. The characteristics also were evaluated for overall performance using the Measurement of Outcome Measures and Bot clinimetric assessment scales. Results The LLFI and LEFS demonstrated a single-factor structure, comparable reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [2,1]=.97), scale width, and high criterion validity (Pearson r=.88, with 95% confidence interval [CI]). Clinimetric performance was higher for the LLFI compared with the LEFS on the Measurement of Outcome Measures scale (96% and 95%, respectively) and the Bot scale (100% and 83%, respectively). The LLFI, compared with the LEFS, had improved responsiveness (standardized response mean=1.75 and 1.64, respectively), minimal detectable change with 90% CI (6.6% and 8.1%, respectively), and internal consistency (α=.91 and .95, respectively), as well as readability with reduced user error and completion and scoring times. Limitations Limitations of the study were that only participants recruited from outpatient physical therapy clinics were included and that no specific conditions or diagnostic subgroups were investigated. Conclusion The LLFI demonstrated sound clinimetric properties. There was lower response error, efficient completion and scoring, and improved responsiveness and overall performance compared with the LEFS. The LLFI is suitable for assessment of lower-limb function.

First middle-atmospheric zonal wind profile measurements with a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer

We report on the wind radiometer WIRA, a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer specifically designed for the measurement of middle-atmospheric horizontal wind by observing ozone emission spectra at 142.17504 GHz. Currently, wind speeds in five levels between 30 and 79 km can be retrieved which makes WIRA the first instrument able to continuously measure horizontal wind in this altitude range. For an integration time of one day the measurement error on each level lies at around 25 m s−1. With a planned upgrade this value is expected to be reduced by a factor of 2 in the near future. On the altitude levels where our measurement can be compared to wind data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) very good agreement in the long-term statistics as well as in short time structures with a duration of a few days has been found. WIRA uses a passive double sideband heterodyne receiver together with a digital Fourier transform spectrometer for the data acquisition. A big advantage of the radiometric approach is that such instruments can also operate under adverse weather conditions and thus provide a continuous time series for the given location. The optics enables the instrument to scan a wide range of azimuth angles including the directions east, west, north, and south for zonal and meridional wind measurements. The design of the radiometer is fairly compact and its calibration does not rely on liquid nitrogen which makes it transportable and suitable for campaign use. WIRA is conceived in a way that it can be operated remotely and does hardly require any maintenance. In the present paper, a description of the instrument is given, and the techniques used for the wind retrieval based on the determination of the Doppler shift of the measured atmospheric ozone emission spectra are outlined. Their reliability was tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a time series of 11 months of zonal wind measurements over Bern (46°57′ N, 7°26′ E) is presented and compared to ECMWF wind data.

A Data-Analytic Strategy for Protein-Biomarker Discovery: Profiling of High-Dimensional Proteomic Data for Cancer Detection

With recent advances in mass spectrometry techniques, it is now possible to investigate proteins over a wide range of molecular weights in small biological specimens. This advance has generated data-analytic challenges in proteomics, similar to those created by microarray technologies in genetics, namely, discovery of "signature" protein profiles specific to each pathologic state (e.g., normal vs. cancer) or differential profiles between experimental conditions (e.g., treated by a drug of interest vs. untreated) from high-dimensional data. We propose a data analytic strategy for discovering protein biomarkers based on such high-dimensional mass-spectrometry data. A real biomarker-discovery project on prostate cancer is taken as a concrete example throughout the paper: the project aims to identify proteins in serum that distinguish cancer, benign hyperplasia, and normal states of prostate using the Surface Enhanced Laser Desorption/Ionization (SELDI) technology, a recently developed mass spectrometry technique. Our data analytic strategy takes properties of the SELDI mass-spectrometer into account: the SELDI output of a specimen contains about 48,000 (x, y) points where x is the protein mass divided by the number of charges introduced by ionization and y is the protein intensity of the corresponding mass per charge value, x, in that specimen. Given high coefficients of variation and other characteristics of protein intensity measures (y values), we reduce the measures of protein intensities to a set of binary variables that indicate peaks in the y-axis direction in the nearest neighborhoods of each mass per charge point in the x-axis direction. We then account for a shifting (measurement error) problem of the x-axis in SELDI output. After these pre-analysis processing of data, we combine the binary predictors to generate classification rules for cancer, benign hyperplasia, and normal states of prostate. Our approach is to apply the boosting algorithm to select binary predictors and construct a summary classifier. We empirically evaluate sensitivity and specificity of the resulting summary classifiers with a test dataset that is independent from the training dataset used to construct the summary classifiers. The proposed method performed nearly perfectly in distinguishing cancer and benign hyperplasia from normal. In the classification of cancer vs. benign hyperplasia, however, an appreciable proportion of the benign specimens were classified incorrectly as cancer. We discuss practical issues associated with our proposed approach to the analysis of SELDI output and its application in cancer biomarker discovery.

A Mechanistic Latent Variable Model for Estimating Drug Concentrations in the Male Genital Tract

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical methodology to facilitate indirect estimation of the concentration of antiretroviral drugs and viral loads in the prostate gland and the seminal vesicle. The differences in antiretroviral drug concentrations in these organs may lead to suboptimal concentrations in one gland compared to the other. Suboptimal levels of the antiretroviral drugs will not be able to fully suppress the virus in that gland, lead to a source of sexually transmissible virus and increase the chance of selecting for drug resistant virus. This information may be useful selecting antiretroviral drug regimen that will achieve optimal concentrations in most of male genital tract glands. Using fractionally collected semen ejaculates, Lundquist (1949) measured levels of surrogate markers in each fraction that are uniquely produced by specific male accessory glands. To determine the original glandular concentrations of the surrogate markers, Lundquist solved a simultaneous series of linear equations. This method has several limitations. In particular, it does not yield a unique solution, it does not address measurement error, and it disregards inter-subject variability in the parameters. To cope with these limitations, we developed a mechanistic latent variable model based on the physiology of the male genital tract and surrogate markers. We employ a Bayesian approach and perform a sensitivity analysis with regard to the distributional assumptions on the random effects and priors. The model and Bayesian approach is validated on experimental data where the concentration of a drug should be (biologically) differentially distributed between the two glands. In this example, the Bayesian model-based conclusions are found to be robust to model specification and this hierarchical approach leads to more scientifically valid conclusions than the original methodology. In particular, unlike existing methods, the proposed model based approach was not affected by a common form of outliers.

Algorithms for spacecraft formation flying navigation based on wireless positioning system measurements

Spacecraft formation flying navigation continues to receive a great deal of interest. The research presented in this dissertation focuses on developing methods for estimating spacecraft absolute and relative positions, assuming measurements of only relative positions using wireless sensors. The implementation of the extended Kalman filter to the spacecraft formation navigation problem results in high estimation errors and instabilities in state estimation at times. This is due tp the high nonlinearities in the system dynamic model. Several approaches are attempted in this dissertation aiming at increasing the estimation stability and improving the estimation accuracy. A differential geometric filter is implemented for spacecraft positions estimation. The differential geometric filter avoids the linearization step (which is always carried out in the extended Kalman filter) through a mathematical transformation that converts the nonlinear system into a linear system. A linear estimator is designed in the linear domain, and then transformed back to the physical domain. This approach demonstrated better estimation stability for spacecraft formation positions estimation, as detailed in this dissertation. The constrained Kalman filter is also implemented for spacecraft formation flying absolute positions estimation. The orbital motion of a spacecraft is characterized by two range extrema (perigee and apogee). At the extremum, the rate of change of a spacecraft’s range vanishes. This motion constraint can be used to improve the position estimation accuracy. The application of the constrained Kalman filter at only two points in the orbit causes filter instability. Two variables are introduced into the constrained Kalman filter to maintain the stability and improve the estimation accuracy. An extended Kalman filter is implemented as a benchmark for comparison with the constrained Kalman filter. Simulation results show that the constrained Kalman filter provides better estimation accuracy as compared with the extended Kalman filter. A Weighted Measurement Fusion Kalman Filter (WMFKF) is proposed in this dissertation. In wireless localizing sensors, a measurement error is proportional to the distance of the signal travels and sensor noise. In this proposed Weighted Measurement Fusion Kalman Filter, the signal traveling time delay is not modeled; however, each measurement is weighted based on the measured signal travel distance. The obtained estimation performance is compared to the standard Kalman filter in two scenarios. The first scenario assumes using a wireless local positioning system in a GPS denied environment. The second scenario assumes the availability of both the wireless local positioning system and GPS measurements. The simulation results show that the WMFKF has similar accuracy performance as the standard Kalman Filter (KF) in the GPS denied environment. However, the WMFKF maintains the position estimation error within its expected error boundary when the WLPS detection range limit is above 30km. In addition, the WMFKF has a better accuracy and stability performance when GPS is available. Also, the computational cost analysis shows that the WMFKF has less computational cost than the standard KF, and the WMFKF has higher ellipsoid error probable percentage than the standard Measurement Fusion method. A method to determine the relative attitudes between three spacecraft is developed. The method requires four direction measurements between the three spacecraft. The simulation results and covariance analysis show that the method’s error falls within a three sigma boundary without exhibiting any singularity issues. A study of the accuracy of the proposed method with respect to the shape of the spacecraft formation is also presented.

Analysis of in-cylinder pressure transducer data quality utilizing a SIDI turbocharged engine

In-cylinder pressure transducers have been used for decades to record combustion pressure inside a running engine. However, due to the extreme operating environment, transducer design and installation must be considered in order to minimize measurement error. One such error is caused by thermal shock, where the pressure transducer experiences a high heat flux that can distort the pressure transducer diaphragm and also change the crystal sensitivity. This research focused on investigating the effects of thermal shock on in-cylinder pressure transducer data quality using a 2.0L, four-cylinder, spark-ignited, direct-injected, turbo-charged GM engine. Cylinder four was modified with five ports to accommodate pressure transducers of different manufacturers. They included an AVL GH14D, an AVL GH15D, a Kistler 6125C, and a Kistler 6054AR. The GH14D, GH15D, and 6054AR were M5 size transducers. The 6125C was a larger, 6.2mm transducer. Note that both of the AVL pressure transducers utilized a PH03 flame arrestor. Sweeps of ignition timing (spark sweep), engine speed, and engine load were performed to study the effects of thermal shock on each pressure transducer. The project consisted of two distinct phases which included experimental engine testing as well as simulation using a commercially available software package. A comparison was performed to characterize the quality of the data between the actual cylinder pressure and the simulated results. This comparison was valuable because the simulation results did not include thermal shock effects. All three sets of tests showed the peak cylinder pressure was basically unaffected by thermal shock. Comparison of the experimental data with the simulated results showed very good correlation. The spark sweep was performed at 1300 RPM and 3.3 bar NMEP and showed that the differences between the simulated results (no thermal shock) and the experimental data for the indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) and the pumping mean effective pressure (PMEP) were significantly less than the published accuracies. All transducers had an IMEP percent difference less than 0.038% and less than 0.32% for PMEP. Kistler and AVL publish that the accuracy of their pressure transducers are within plus or minus 1% for the IMEP (AVL 2011; Kistler 2011). In addition, the difference in average exhaust absolute pressure between the simulated results and experimental data was the greatest for the two Kistler pressure transducers. The location and lack of flame arrestor are believed to be the cause of the increased error. For the engine speed sweep, the torque output was held constant at 203 Nm (150 ft-lbf) from 1500 to 4000 RPM. The difference in IMEP was less than 0.01% and the PMEP was less than 1%, except for the AVL GH14D which was 5% and the AVL GH15DK which was 2.25%. A noticeable error in PMEP appeared as the load increased during the engine speed sweeps, as expected. The load sweep was conducted at 2000 RPM over a range of NMEP from 1.1 to 14 bar. The difference in IMEP values were less 0.08% while the PMEP values were below 1% except for the AVL GH14D which was 1.8% and the AVL GH15DK which was at 1.25%. In-cylinder pressure transducer data quality was effectively analyzed using a combination of experimental data and simulation results. Several criteria can be used to investigate the impact of thermal shock on data quality as well as determine the best location and thermal protection for various transducers.

Implicit and explicit evaluations: a declaration of dependence

This section presents abstracts of three studies on how consumer choices can be influenced by the name letter effect of brands without decision makers being aware of this influence. The first paper examined whether making brand names similar to consumers' names increases the likelihood that consumers will choose the brand. One prediction is that people will prefer and be more likely to choose products or services whose names prominently feature the letters in their own first or last names. The results showed that subjects' preference rankings and evaluations of name letter matching brands were higher than those of non-name letter matching brands. The second paper tested the possibility of using subliminal priming to activate a concept that a persuasive communicator could take advantage of. To examine the idea, two experiments were presented. In the first experiment, participants' level of thirst were manipulated and then subliminally presented them with either thirst-related words or control words. While the manipulations had no effect on participants' self-reported, conscious ratings of thirst, there was a significant interactive effect of the two factors on how much of the drink provided in the taste test was consumed. In a second, follow up experiment, thirsty participants were subliminally presented with either thirst-related words or control words after which they viewed advertisements for two new sports beverages. In conclusion, the research demonstrates that under certain conditions, subliminal printing techniques can enhance persuasion. The third paper hypothesized that the lack of correlations between implicit and explicit evaluations is due to measurement error.

Validation of middle-atmospheric campaign-based water vapour measured by the ground-based microwave radiometer MIAWARA-C

Middle atmospheric water vapour can be used as a tracer for dynamical processes. It is mainly measured by satellite instruments and ground-based microwave radiometers. Ground-based instruments capable of measuring middle-atmospheric water vapour are sparse but valuable as they complement satellite measurements, are relatively easy to maintain and have a long lifetime. MIAWARA-C is a ground-based microwave radiometer for middle-atmospheric water vapour designed for use on measurement campaigns for both atmospheric case studies and instrument intercomparisons. MIAWARA-C's retrieval version 1.1 (v1.1) is set up in a such way as to provide a consistent data set even if the instrument is operated from different locations on a campaign basis. The sensitive altitude range for v1.1 extends from 4 hPa (37 km) to 0.017 hPa (75 km). For v1.1 the estimated systematic error is approximately 10% for all altitudes. At lower altitudes it is dominated by uncertainties in the calibration, with altitude the influence of spectroscopic and temperature uncertainties increases. The estimated random error increases with altitude from 5 to 25%. MIAWARA-C measures two polarisations of the incident radiation in separate receiver channels, and can therefore provide two measurements of the same air mass with independent instrumental noise. The standard deviation of the difference between the profiles obtained from the two polarisations is in excellent agreement with the estimated random measurement error of v1.1. In this paper, the quality of v1.1 data is assessed for measurements obtained at two different locations: (1) a total of 25 months of measurements in the Arctic (Sodankylä, 67.37° N, 26.63° E) and (2) nine months of measurements at mid-latitudes (Zimmerwald, 46.88° N, 7.46° E). For both locations MIAWARA-C's profiles are compared to measurements from the satellite experiments Aura MLS and MIPAS. In addition, comparisons to ACE-FTS and SOFIE are presented for the Arctic and to the ground-based radiometer MIAWARA for the mid-latitude campaigns. In general, all intercomparisons show high correlation coefficients, confirming the ability of MIAWARA-C to monitor temporal variations of the order of days. The biases are generally below 13% and within the estimated systematic uncertainty of MIAWARA-C. No consistent wet or dry bias is identified for MIAWARA-C. In addition, comparisons to the reference instruments indicate the estimated random error of v1.1 to be a realistic measure of the random variation on the retrieved profile between 45 and 70 km.