Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al. The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous transient climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms, at the time when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere had doubled, agrees in geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern Hemisphere. The main reason to this, appear to be connected to changes in the large scale circulation, such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The low level vorticity in the hurricane genesis regions is generally reduced compared to the present climate, while the vertical tropospheric wind shear is somewhat increased. Most tropical storm regions indicate reduced surface windspeeds and a slightly weaker hydrological cycle.

Numerical simulations of intense tropical storms

A high resolution general circulation model has been used to study intense tropical storms. A five-year-long global integration with a spatial resolution of 125 km has been analysed. The geographical and seasonal distribution of tropical storms agrees remarkably well with observations. The structure of individual storms also agrees with observations, but the storms are generally more extensive in coverage and less extreme than the observed ones. A few additional calculations have also been done by a very high resolution limited-area version of the same model, where the boundary conditions successively have been interpolated from the global model. These results are very realistic in many details of the structure of the storms including simulated rain-bands and an eye structure. The global model has also been used in another five-year integration to study the influence of greenhouse warming. The sea surface temperatures have been taken from a transient climate change experiment carried out with a low resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The result is a significant reduction in the number of hurricanes, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Main reasons for this can be found in changes in the largescale circulation, i.e. a weakening of the Hadley circulation, and a more intense warming of the upper tropical troposphere. A similar effect can be seen during warm ENSO events, where fewer North Atlantic hurricanes have been reported.

Using synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-Holocene

Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models.

Methods of sensory augmentation through electro-tactile stimulation of the tongue

This paper details an investigation into sensory substitution by means of direct electrical stimulation of the tongue for the purpose of information input to the human brain. In particular, a device has been constructed and a series of trials have been performed in order to demonstrate the efficacy and performance of an electro-tactile array mounted onto the tongue surface for the purpose of sensory augmentation. Tests have shown that by using a low resolution array a computer-human feedback loop can be successfully implemented by humans in order to complete tasks such as object tracking, surface shape identification and shape recognition with no training or prior experience with the device. Comparisons of this technique have been made with visual alternatives and these show that the tongue based tactile array can match such methods in convenience and accuracy in performing simple tasks.

The drivers of projected North Atlantic sea level change

Sea level change predicted by the CMIP5 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is not spatially homogeneous. In particular, the sea level change in the North Atlantic is usually characterised by a meridional dipole pattern with higher sea level rise north of 40°N and lower to the south. The spread among models is also high in that region. Here we evaluate the role of surface buoyancy fluxes by carrying out simulations with the FAMOUS low-resolution AOGCM forced by surface freshwater and heat flux changes from CO2-forced climate change experiments with CMIP5 AOGCMs, and by a standard idealised surface freshwater flux applied in the North Atlantic. Both kinds of buoyancy flux change lead to the formation of the sea level dipole pattern, although the effect of the heat flux has a greater magnitude, and is the main cause of the spread of results among the CMIP5 models. By using passive tracers in FAMOUS to distinguish between additional and redistributed buoyancy, we show that the enhanced sea level rise north of 40°N is mainly due to the direct steric effect (the reduction of sea water density) caused by adding heat or freshwater locally. The surface buoyancy forcing also causes a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the consequent reduction of the northward ocean heat transport imposes a negative tendency on sea level rise, producing the reduced rise south of 40°N. However, unlike previous authors, we find that this indirect effect of buoyancy forcing is generally less important than the direct one, except in a narrow band along the east coast of the US, where it plays a major role and leads to sea level rise, as found by previous authors.

Baroclinic instability on hot extrasolar planets

We investigate baroclinic instability in flow conditions relevant to hot extrasolar planets. The instability is important for transporting and mixing heat, as well as for influencing large-scale variability on the planets. Both linear normal mode analysis and non-linear initial value cal- culations are carried out – focusing on the freely-evolving, adiabatic situation. Using a high- resolution general circulation model (GCM) which solves the traditional primitive equations, we show that large-scale jets similar to those observed in current GCM simulations of hot ex- trasolar giant planets are likely to be baroclinically unstable on a timescale of few to few tens of planetary rotations, generating cyclones and anticyclones that drive weather systems. The growth rate and scale of the most unstable mode obtained in the linear analysis are in qual- itative, good agreement with the full non-linear calculations. In general, unstable jets evolve differently depending on their signs (eastward or westward), due to the change in sign of the jet curvature. For jets located at or near the equator, instability is strong at the flanks – but not at the core. Crucially, the instability is either poorly or not at all captured in simulations with low resolution and/or high artificial viscosity. Hence, the instability has not been observed or emphasized in past circulation studies of hot extrasolar planets.

The importance of accurate wind resource assessment for evaluating the economic viability of small wind turbines

The techno-economic performance of a small wind turbine is very sensitive to the available wind resource. However, due to financial and practical constraints installers rely on low resolution wind speed databases to assess a potential site. This study investigates whether the two site assessment tools currently used in the UK, NOABL or the Energy Saving Trust wind speed estimator, are accurate enough to estimate the techno-economic performance of a small wind turbine. Both the tools tend to overestimate the wind speed, with a mean error of 23% and 18% for the NOABL and Energy Saving Trust tool respectively. A techno-economic assessment of 33 small wind turbines at each site has shown that these errors can have a significant impact on the estimated load factor of an installation. Consequently, site/turbine combinations which are not economically viable can be predicted to be viable. Furthermore, both models tend to underestimate the wind resource at relatively high wind speed sites, this can lead to missed opportunities as economically viable turbine/site combinations are predicted to be non-viable. These results show that a better understanding of the local wind resource is a required to make small wind turbines a viable technology in the UK.

Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data

The susceptibility of a catchment to flooding is affected by its soil moisture prior to an extreme rainfall event. While soil moisture is routinely observed by satellite instruments, results from previous work on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into hydrologic models have been mixed. This may have been due in part to the low spatial resolution of the observations used. In this study, the remote sensing aspects of a project attempting to improve flow predictions from a distributed hydrologic model by assimilating soil moisture measurements are described. Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath data were used to measure soil moisture as, unlike low resolution microwave data, they have sufficient resolution to allow soil moisture variations due to local topography to be detected, which may help to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Surface soil moisture content (SSMC) was measured over the catchments of the Severn and Avon rivers in the South West UK. To reduce the influence of vegetation, measurements were made only over homogeneous pixels of improved grassland determined from a land cover map. Radar backscatter was corrected for terrain variations and normalized to a common incidence angle. SSMC was calculated using change detection. To search for evidence of a topographic signal, the mean SSMC from improved grassland pixels on low slopes near rivers was compared to that on higher slopes. When the mean SSMC on low slopes was 30–90%, the higher slopes were slightly drier than the low slopes. The effect was reversed for lower SSMC values. It was also more pronounced during a drying event. These findings contribute to the scant information in the literature on the use of high resolution SAR soil moisture measurement to improve hydrologic models.

The climate and environment of Byzantine Anatolia: integrating science, history, and archaeology

The integration of high-resolution archaeological, textual, and environmental data with longer-term, low-resolution data affords greater precision in identifying some of the causal relationships underlying societal change. Regional and microregional case studies about the Byzantine world—in particular, Anatolia, which for several centuries was the heart of that world—reveal many of the difficulties that researchers face when attempting to assess the influence of environmental factors on human society. The Anatolian case challenges a number of assumptions about the impact of climatic factors on socio-political organization and medium-term historical evolution, highlighting the importance of further collaboration between historians, archaeologists, and climate scientists.

Electronic structure of Pd multi-layers on Re(0001): the role of charge transfer

Understanding the origin of the properties of metal-supported metal thin films is important for the rational design of bimetallic catalysts and other applications, but it is generally difficult to separate effects related to strain from those arising from interface interactions. Here we use density functional (DFT) theory to examine the structure and electronic behavior of few-layer palladium films on the rhenium (0001) surface, where there is negligible interfacial strain and therefore other effects can be isolated. Our DFT calculations predict stacking sequences and interlayer separations in excellent agreement with quantitative low-energy electron diffraction experiments. By theoretically simulating the Pd core-level X-ray photoemission spectra (XPS) of the films, we are able to interpret and assign the basic features of both low-resolution and high-resolution XPS measurements. The core levels at the interface shift to more negative energies, rigidly following the shifts in the same direction of the valence d-band center. We demonstrate that the valence band shift at the interface is caused by charge transfer from Re to Pd, which occurs mainly to valence states of hybridized s-p character rather than to the Pd d-band. Since the d-band filling is roughly constant, there is a correlation between the d-band center shift and its bandwidth. The resulting effect of this charge transfer on the valence d-band is thus analogous to the application of a lateral compressive strain on the adlayers. Our analysis suggests that charge transfer should be considered when describing the origin of core and valence band shifts in other metal / metal adlayer systems.

Combining structure and dynamics: non-denaturing high-pressure effect on lysozyme in solution

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and elastic and quasi-elastic neutron scattering techniques were used to investigate the high-pressure-induced changes on interactions, the low-resolution structure and the dynamics of lysozyme in solution. SAXS data, analysed using a global-fit procedure based on a new approach for hydrated protein form factor description, indicate that lysozyme completely maintains its globular structure up to 1500 bar, but significant modi. cations in the protein-protein interaction potential occur at approximately 600-1000 bar. Moreover, the mass density of the protein hydration water shows a clear discontinuity within this pressure range. Neutron scattering experiments indicate that the global and the local lysozyme dynamics change at a similar threshold pressure. A clear evolution of the internal protein dynamics from diffusing to more localized motions has also been probed. Protein structure and dynamics results have then been discussed in the context of protein-water interface and hydration water dynamics. According to SAXS results, the new configuration of water in the first hydration layer induced by pressure is suggested to be at the origin of the observed local mobility changes.

Combined Crystallographic and Solution Molecular Dynamics Study of Allosteric Effects in Ester and Ketone p-tert-Butylcalix[4]arene Derivatives and Their Complexes with Acetonitrile, Cd(II), and Pb(II)

We describe here a procedure to bridge the gap in the field of calixarene physicochemistry between solid-state atomic-resolution structural information and the liquid-state low-resolution thermodynamics and spectroscopic data. We use MD simulations to study the kinetics and energetics involved in the complexation of lower rim calix[4]arene derivatives (L), containing bidentate ester (1) and ketone (2) pendant groups, with acetonitrile molecule (MeCN) and Cd2+ and Pb2+ ions (M2+) in acetonitrile solution. On one hand, we found that the prior inclusion of MeCN into the calix to form a L(MeCN) adduct has only a weak effect in preorganizing the hydrophilic cavity toward metal ion binding. On the other hand, the strong ion-hydrophilic cavity interaction produces a wide open calix which enhances the binding of one MeCN molecule (allosteric effect) to stabilize the whole (M2+)1(MeCN) bifunctional complex. We reach two major conclusions: (i) the MD results for the (M2+)1(MeCN) binding are in close agreement with the ""endo"", fully encapsulated, metal complex found by X-ray diffraction and in vacuo MD calculations, and (ii) the MD structure for the more flexible 2 ligand, however, differs from the also endo solid-state molecule. In fact, it shows strong solvation effects at the calixarene lower bore by competing MeCN molecules that share the metal coordination sphere with the four C=O oxygens of an ""exo"" (M2+)2(MeCN) complex.

Effects of Extrusion on the Emulsifying Properties of Rumen and Soy Protein

Defatted rumen protein and soy protein concentrate were extruded in a 15.5:1 L/D single-screw extruder at the optimum conditions for their expansion (150A degrees C and 35% moisture, and 130A degrees C and 35% moisture, respectively). Emulsions were produced with these proteins and studied by rheology and time domain low-resolution (1)H nuclear magnetic resonance (TD-NMR). Extrusion increased storage modulus of rumen protein emulsions. The opposite was observed for soy protein. Mechanical relaxation showed the existence of three relaxing components in the emulsions whose relative contributions were changed by extrusion. Likewise, spin-spin relaxation time constants (T (2)) measured by TD-NMR also showed three major distinct populations of protons in respect to their mobility that were also altered by extrusion. Extrusion increased surface hydrophobicity of both rumen and soy protein. Solubility of rumen protein increased with extrusion whereas soy protein had its solubility decreased after processing. Extrusion promoted molecular reorganization of protein, increasing its superficial hydrophobicity, affecting its interfacial properties and improving its emulsifying behavior. The results show that extrusion can promote the use of rumen, a by-product waste from the meat industry, in human nutrition by replacing soy protein in food emulsions.

Nuclear magnetic resonance characterization of metabolite disorder in orange trees caused by citrus sudden death disease

Citrus sudden death (CSD) is a new disease of sweet orange and mandarin trees grafted on Rangpur lime and Citrus volkameriana rootstocks. It was first seen in Brazil in 1999, and has since been detected in more than four million trees. The CSD causal agent is unknown and the current hypothesis involves a virus similar to Citrus tristeza virus or a new virus named Citrus sudden death-associated virus. CSD symptoms include generalized foliar discoloration, defoliation and root death, and, in most cases, it can cause tree death. One of the unique characteristics of CSD disease is the presence of a yellow stain in the rootstock bark near the bud union. This region also undergoes profound anatomical changes. In this study, we analyse the metabolic disorder caused by CSD in the bark of sweet orange grafted on Rangpur lime by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and imaging. The imaging results show the presence of a large amount of non-functional phloem in the rootstock bark of affected plants. The spectroscopic analysis shows a high content of triacylglyceride and sucrose, which may be related to phloem blockage close to the bud union. We also propose that, without knowing the causal CSD agent, the determination of oil content in rootstock bark by low-resolution NMR can be used as a complementary method for CSD diagnosis, screening about 300 samples per hour.

Nuclear magnetic resonance water relaxation time changes in bananas during ripening: a new mechanism

BACKGROUND: Nuclear magnetic resonance studies of banana fragments during ripening show an increase on the water transverse relaxation time (T(2)) and a decrease in water self-diffusion coefficient (D). As T(2) and D are normally directly correlated, we studied these two properties in intact bananas during ripening, in an attempt to rule out the effect of injury on the apparent discrepancies in the behavior of T(2) and D. RESULTS: The results show that injury in bananas causes a decrease in T(2) of the water in vacuoles (T(2vac)). They also show that T(2vac) increased and D decreased during ripening, ruling out the injury effect. To explain the apparent discrepancies, we propose a new hypothesis for the increase in T(2) values, based on the reduction of Fe(3+) ions to Fe(2+) by galacturonic acid, produced by the hydrolysis of pectin and a decrease in internal oxygen concentration during ripening. CONCLUSION: As injury alters T(2) values it is necessary to use intact bananas to study relaxation times during ripening. The novel interpretation for the increase in T(2vac) based on reduction of Fe(+3) and O(2) concentration is an alternative mechanism to that based on the hydrolysis of starch in amyloplasts. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry