A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

Effect of Earnings Volatility on Cost of Debt: The case of Swedish Limited Companies

The paper empirically tests the relationship between earnings volatility and cost of debt with a sample of more than 77,000 Swedish limited companies over the period 2006 to 2013 observing more than 677,000 firm years. As called upon by many researchers recently that there is very limited evidence of the association between earnings volatility and cost of debt this paper contributes greatly to the existing literature of earnings quality and debt contracts, especially on the consequence of earnings quality in the debt market. Earnings volatility is a proxy used for earnings quality while cost of debt is a component of debt contract. After controlling for firms’ profitability, liquidity, solvency, cashflow volatility, accruals volatility, sales volatility, business risk, financial risk and size this paper studies the effect of earnings volatility measured by standard deviation of Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) on Cost of Debt. Overall finding suggests that lenders in Sweden does take earnings volatility into consideration while determining cost of debt for borrowers. But a deeper analysis of various industries suggest earnings volatility is not consistently used by lenders across all the industries. Lenders in Sweden are rather more sensitive to borrowers’ financial risk across all the industries. It may also be stated that larger borrowers tend to secure loans at a lower interest rate, the results are consistent with majority of the industries. Swedish debt market appears to be well prepared for financial crises as the debt crisis seems to have no or little adverse effect borrowers’ cost of capital. This study is the only empirical evidence to study the association between earnings volatility and cost of debt. Prior indirect research suggests earnings volatility has a negative effect on cost debt (i.e. an increase in earnings volatility will increase firm’s cost of debt). Our direct evidence from the Swedish debt market is consistent for some industries including media, real estate activities, transportation & warehousing, and other consumer services.

Volatilidade dos retornos e governança: um estudo de eventos da crise do subprime

The financial crisis that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008, known as the subprime crisis, has highlighted the governance of companies in Brazil and worldwide. To monitor the financial risk, quantitative tools of risk management were created in the 1990s, after several financial disasters. The market turmoil has also led companies to invest in the development and use of information, which are applied as tools to support process control and decision making. Numerous empirical studies on informational efficiency of the market have been made inside and outside Brazil, revealing whether the prices reflect the information available instantly. The creation of different levels of corporate governance on BOVESPA, in 2000, made the firms had greater impairment in relation to its shareholders with greater transparency in their information. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the subprime financial crisis has affected, between January 2007 and December 2009, the volatility of stock returns in the BM&BOVESPA of companies with greater liquidity at different levels of corporate governance. From studies of time series and through the studies of events, econometric tests were performed by the EVIEWS, and through the results obtained it became evident that the adoption of good practices of corporate governance affect the volatility of returns of companies

The Meanings of New Money: Social Constructions of Value in the Rise of Digital Currencies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Metodología para la medición del riesgo de liquidez en una cooperativa financiera

Este trabajo plantea la implementación de una metodología para la medición del riego de liquidez al modelo interno adoptado por CONFIAR Cooperativa Financiera, haciendo énfasis en proyecciones estadísticas de los depósitos y retiros de cuentas de ahorro a la vista, depósitos y retiros de aportes sociales, captaciones en contratos de depósito a término, captaciones en depósitos contractuales y los desembolsos de créditos, a través del modelo de series de tiempo para la construcción del flujo de caja, conforme a lo exigido por la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia.

Volatilidade dos retornos e governança: um estudo de eventos da crise do subprime

The financial crisis that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008, known as the subprime crisis, has highlighted the governance of companies in Brazil and worldwide. To monitor the financial risk, quantitative tools of risk management were created in the 1990s, after several financial disasters. The market turmoil has also led companies to invest in the development and use of information, which are applied as tools to support process control and decision making. Numerous empirical studies on informational efficiency of the market have been made inside and outside Brazil, revealing whether the prices reflect the information available instantly. The creation of different levels of corporate governance on BOVESPA, in 2000, made the firms had greater impairment in relation to its shareholders with greater transparency in their information. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the subprime financial crisis has affected, between January 2007 and December 2009, the volatility of stock returns in the BM&BOVESPA of companies with greater liquidity at different levels of corporate governance. From studies of time series and through the studies of events, econometric tests were performed by the EVIEWS, and through the results obtained it became evident that the adoption of good practices of corporate governance affect the volatility of returns of companies

Mobile commerce : percepção de risco do consumidor na compra

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais

Análisis sistémico de los riesgos de servicio y financiero en la cadena de abastecimiento

Partiendo de un modelo desarrollado por medio de la dinámica de sistemas, que representa una cadena de abastecimiento, este trabajo tiene como finalidad establecer una aproximación sistémica a la gestión de los riesgos de servicio y financiero, teniendo en cuenta la toma de decisiones desde el área operativa y su influencia sobre el riesgo en otras áreas de la empresa.

The significant role of third-party logistics (3pl) operators as fosterers of organizational performance in colombian companies

La eliminación de barreras entre países es una consecuencia que llega con la globalización y con los acuerdos de TLC firmados en los últimos años. Esto implica un crecimiento significativo del comercio exterior, lo cual se ve reflejado en un aumento de la complejidad de la cadena de suministro de las empresas. Debido a lo anterior, se hace necesaria la búsqueda de alternativas para obtener altos niveles de productividad y competitividad dentro de las empresas en Colombia, ya que el entorno se ha vuelto cada vez más complejo, saturado de competencia no sólo nacional, sino también internacional. Para mantenerse en una posición competitiva favorable, las compañías deben enfocarse en las actividades que le agregan valor a su negocio, por lo cual una de las alternativas que se están adoptando hoy en día es la tercerización de funciones logísticas a empresas especializadas en el manejo de estos servicios. Tales empresas son los Proveedores de servicios logísticos (LSP), quienes actúan como agentes externos a la organización al gestionar, controlar y proporcionar actividades logísticas en nombre de un contratante. Las actividades realizadas pueden incluir todas o parte de las actividades logísticas, pero como mínimo la gestión y ejecución del transporte y almacenamiento deben estar incluidos (Berglund, 2000). El propósito del documento es analizar el papel de los Operadores Logísticos de Tercer nivel (3PL) como promotores del desempeño organizacional en las empresas colombianas, con el fin de informar a las MIPYMES acerca de los beneficios que se obtienen al trabajar con LSP como un medio para mejorar la posición competitiva del país.

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Automotive manufacturers' cost/revenue, financial and risk analysis: projected impact of automobile manufacturing on the plastics industry. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

A survey of value-at-risk and its role in the banking industry

This paper discusses the various aspects of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the VaR-based risk management process as it pertains to the banking industry. Since its inception in the 1990’s, VaR has become the industry standard by which market risk is both measured and managed by financial institutions today. However, there has been much debate regarding VaR’s validity and the extent of its role within the banking industry. Yet, now that it is an integral part of the regulatory framework, establishing VaR’s legitimacy is more important than ever. Therefore, this paper examines the recent literature on VaR’s use as a market risk management tool within the banking environment in an attempt to clarify some of the more contentious issues which have been raised by researchers. The discussion begins by highlighting the underlying theory on which VaR is based, specific aspects which have proven controversial and its use from a regulatory perspective. The focus then turns to what little literature exists on the subject of VaR and asset returns in an attempt to provide some direction for future research.

The development of the private equity industry since the 2008 financial crisis

The private equity industry was experiencing a phenomenal boom at the turn of the century but collapsed abruptly in 2008 with the onset of the financial crisis. Considered one of the worst crises since the Great Depression of the 1930s, it had sent ripples around the world threatening the collapse of financial institutions and provoking a liquidity crunch followed by a huge downturn in economic activity and recession. Furthermore, the physiognomy of the financial landscape had considerably altered with banks retracting from the lending space, accompanied by a hardening of financial regulation that sought to better contain systemic risk. Given the new set of changes and challenges that had arisen from this period of financial turmoil, private equity found itself having to question current practices and methods of operation in order to adjust to the harsh realities of a new post-apocalyptic world. Consequently, this paper goes on to explore how the private equity business, management and operation model has evolved since the credit crunch with a specific focus on mature markets such as the United States and Europe. More specifically, this paper will aim to gather insights on the development of the industry since the crisis in Western Europe through a case study approach using as a base interviews with professionals working in the industry and those external to the sector but who have/have had considerable interaction with PE players from 2007 to the present.

The impact of *experience, industry characteristics, and individual differences on audit risk and the extent of testing decisions: An empirical investigation

The first part of the study examined the effect of industry risk changes on perceived audit risk at the financial statement level and whether these changes depended on individual differences such as experience and tolerance for ambiguity. ^ Forty-eight auditors from two offices of one of the “Big 5” CPA firms participated in this study. The ANOVA results supported the effect of industry risk in the assessment of audit risk at the financial statement level. Higher industry risk was associated with higher perceived audit risk. Tolerance for ambiguity was also significant in explaining the changes in the assessment of audit risk. Auditors with a high tolerance for ambiguity perceived lower audit risk than auditors with a low tolerance for ambiguity. Although ANOVA results did not find experience to be significant, a t-test for experience showed it to be marginally significant and inversely related to audit risk. ^ The second part of this study examined whether differences in perceived audit risk at the financial statement level altered the extent, nature or timing of the planned auditing procedures. The results of the MANOVA suggested an overall audit risk effect at the financial statement level. Perceived audit risk was significant in explaining the variation in the number of hours planned for the total cycle and the number of hours p1anned for the tests of balances and details. Perceived audit risk was not significant in determining the analytical review procedures planned, but assessed inherent risk at the cycle level was significant. The higher the inherent risk the more analytical procedures were planned. Perceived audit risk was not significant in explaining the timing of the procedures, but individual differences were significant. The results showed that experienced auditors and those with a high tolerance for ambiguity were less likely to postpone the performance of the interim procedures or the time at which the majority of audit work would be done. ^

An ecological assessment of secondary poisoning risk in the Australian sugarcane industry

Rodenticide use in agriculture can lead to the secondary poisoning of avian predators. Currently the Australian sugarcane industry has two rodenticides, Racumin® and Rattoff®, available for in-crop use but, like many agricultural industries, it lacks an ecologically-based method of determining the potential secondary poisoning risk the use of these rodenticides poses to avian predators. The material presented in this thesis addresses this by: a. determining where predator/prey interactions take place in sugar producing districts; b. quantifying the amount of rodenticide available to avian predators and the probability of encounter; and c. developing a stochastic model that allows secondary poisoning risk under various rodenticide application scenarios to be investigated. Results demonstrate that predator/prey interactions are highly constrained by environmental structure. Rodents used crops that provided high levels of canopy cover and therefore predator protection and poorly utilised open canopy areas. In contrast, raptors over-utilised areas with low canopy cover and low rodent densities, but which provided high accessibility to prey. Given this pattern of habitat use, and that industry baiting protocols preclude rodenticide application in open canopy crops, these results indicate that secondary poisoning can only occur if poisoned rodents leave closed canopy crops and become available for predation in open canopy areas. Results further demonstrate that after in-crop rodenticide application, only a small proportion of rodents available in open areas are poisoned and that these rodents carry low levels of toxicant. Coupled with the low level of rodenticide use in the sugar industry, the high toxic threshold raptors have to these toxicants and the low probability of encountering poisoned rodents, results indicate that the risk of secondary poisoning events occurring is minimal. A stochastic model was developed to investigate the effect of manipulating factors that might influence secondary poisoning hazard in a sugarcane agro-ecosystem. These simulations further suggest that in all but extreme scenarios, the risk of secondary poisoning is also minimal. Collectively, these studies demonstrate that secondary poisoning of avian predators associated with the use of the currently available rodenticides in Australian sugar producing districts is minimal. Further, the ecologically-based method of assessing secondary poisoning risk developed in this thesis has broader applications in other agricultural systems where rodenticide use may pose risks to avian predators.