Effects of study precision and risk of bias in networks of interventions: a network meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.

What is the influence of randomisation sequence generation and allocation concealment on treatment effects of physical therapy trials? A meta-epidemiological study.

OBJECTIVE To determine if adequacy of randomisation and allocation concealment is associated with changes in effect sizes (ES) when comparing physical therapy (PT) trials with and without these methodological characteristics. DESIGN Meta-epidemiological study. PARTICIPANTS A random sample of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) included in meta-analyses in the PT discipline were identified. INTERVENTION Data extraction including assessments of random sequence generation and allocation concealment was conducted independently by two reviewers. To determine the association between sequence generation, and allocation concealment and ES, a two-level analysis was conducted using a meta-meta-analytic approach. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES association between random sequence generation and allocation concealment and ES in PT trials. RESULTS 393 trials included in 43 meta-analyses, analysing 44 622 patients contributed to this study. Adequate random sequence generation and appropriate allocation concealment were accomplished in only 39.7% and 11.5% of PT trials, respectively. Although trials with inappropriate allocation concealment tended to have an overestimate treatment effect when compared with trials with adequate concealment of allocation, the difference was non-statistically significant (ES=0.12; 95% CI -0.06 to 0.30). When pooling our results with those of Nuesch et al, we obtained a pooled statistically significant value (ES=0.14; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.26). There was no difference in ES in trials with appropriate or inappropriate random sequence generation (ES=0.02; 95% CI -0.12 to 0.15). CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that when evaluating risk of bias of primary RCTs in PT area, systematic reviewers and clinicians implementing research into practice should pay attention to these biases since they could exaggerate treatment effects. Systematic reviewers should perform sensitivity analysis including trials with low risk of bias in these domains as primary analysis and/or in combination with less restrictive analyses. Authors and editors should make sure that allocation concealment and random sequence generation are properly reported in trial reports.

Patient safety in dialysis access: education and research.

Today, a growing activity to improve patient safety in all domains of medicine is reality. This chapter deals with patient safety research in general, but is also about strategies to implement this evidence in the daily clinical work treating patients on dialysis. Good clinical research practice has been well established for some years. In the domain of dialysis access, further basic, clinical, epidemiological and health service research will be important to further improve patient safety as a whole.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer metastases

Introduction. Breast cancer is a highly variable disease, and long-term outcomes for individual patients are difficult to predict. We evaluated a retrospective cohort of early stage breast cancer (ESBC) patients based on a variety of clinical and epidemiological factors, specifically looking at the distribution of metastasis and associations with these clinical and epidemiological factors. ^ Methods. Patients were derived from the Early Stage Breast Cancer Repository (ESBCR) with a breast cancer diagnosed between 1985 and 2000. We conducted univariate and multivariate analysis of the data to evaluate associations between characteristics and occurrence of overall, visceral, and bone metastasis. Visceral metastasis was defined as lung, liver, peritoneal, lymph node (thoracic, abdominal, pelvis), and contralateral breast cancer. ^ Results. Overall, 394 (16%) patients developed a metastasis. Of these, 83% were visceral and 17% were bone. Multivariate analyses identified the following variables to be associated with metastasis: Any metastasis: age at diagnosis, stage, ER/PR status, hormone treatment, and type of surgery (1)Visceral metastasis: age at diagnosis, stage, hormone treatment, and type of surgery (2) Bone metastasis –Alcohol use, stage, and ER/PR status ^ Discussion/conclusion. ER-/PR- status has previously been found to be associated with bone metastasis, as we confirm in our cohort. We report an association between alcohol use and bone metastasis whereas previous studies find an association with recurrence. Distribution of metastases varies from previous studies. Typically, previous studies reported bone metastasis >30%, yet our study found 17%. Previous studies varied in design, and definition of visceral metastasis. Future research is needed to further elucidate prognostic factors associated with specific metastases A more thorough understanding of what might predict which ESBC patients will develop metastases can help direct future treatment. Future studies of this nature could include the Perou intrinsic subtypes, biomarkers like Ki-67, and genetic analyses such as Oncotype DX or MammaPrint.^

Greetings: 50 years of Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission–Radiation Effects Research Foundation studies

The Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission was established in Hiroshima in 1947 and in Nagasaki in 1948 under the auspices of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences to initiate a long-term and comprehensive epidemiological and genetic study of the atomic bomb survivors. It was replaced in 1975 by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation which is a nonprofit Japanese foundation binationally managed and supported with equal funding by the governments of Japan and the United States. Thanks to the cooperation of the survivors and the contributions of a multitude of scientists, these studies flourish to this day in what must be the most successful long-term research collaboration between the two countries. Although these studies are necessarily limited to the effects of acute, whole-body, mixed gamma-neutron radiation from the atom bombs, their comprehensiveness and duration make them the most definitive descriptions of the late effects of radiation in humans. For this reason, the entire world relies heavily on these data to set radiation standards. As vital as the study results are, they still represent primarily the effects of radiation on older survivors. Another decade or two should correct this deficiency and allow us to measure definitively the human risk of heritable mutation from radiation. We look to the worldwide radiation and risk community as well as to the survivors who have contributed so much to what has been done already to accomplish this goal.

Epidemiological follow-up of the New Jersey radium cases...progress report to...

"Contract AT(30-1)-2181."

Epidemiological analysis of electroconvulsive therapy in Victoria, Australia

Objective: To determine the population-based utilization rate of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in Victoria between 1998-1999, to examine the characteristics of the ECT treated group, and to identify patient factors independently associated with differential rates of ECT treatment. Method: Electroconvulsive therapy is reported under statute in Victoria, Australia. Crude, age-adjusted and age-sex specific utilization rates were calculated using this statutory data for the 1998-1999 financial year and estimated mid-year populations from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive characteristics of those treated with ECT were derived from the statutory data. Patient factors associated with an increased likelihood of ECT in the public sector were explored with logistic regression analysis, using non-ECT treated mental health patients from the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register as the reference population. Results: The crude treated-person and age-adjusted rates for the State (both public and private sectors) were 39.9 and 44.0 persons per 100 000 resident population per annum, respectively. The crude and age-adjusted administration rates were 330.3 and 362.6 ECT administrations per 100 000 resident population per annum, respectively. Age-sex specific rates varied by age and sex, with rates generally increasing with age and female sex. Overall, 62.8% of the treated group were women, 32.9% aged over 64, and 75.2% had depression. Diagnosis, age and sex each independently predicted ECT in the public sector, with diagnosis the most important factor, followed by age then sex. Conclusions: Despite decades of use, the appropriate rate of ECT utilization is still unclear. Further research should be directed at exploring the factors, including provider variables, determining ECT treatment.

The rising tide of ocean diseases: Unsolved problems and research priorities

New studies have detected a rising number of reports of diseases in marine organisms such as corals, molluscs, turtles, mammals, and echinoderms over the past three decades. Despite the increasing disease load, microbiological, molecular, and theoretical tools for managing disease in the world's oceans are underdeveloped. Review of the new developments in the study of these diseases identifies five major unsolved problems and priorities for future research: (1) detecting origins and reservoirs for marine diseases and tracing the flow of some new pathogens from land to sea; (2) documenting the longevity and host range of infectious stages; (3) evaluating the effect of greater taxonomic diversity of marine relative to terrestrial hosts and pathogens; (4) pinpointing the facilitating role of anthropogenic agents as incubators and conveyors of marine pathogens; (5) adapting epidemiological models to analysis of marine disease.

The properties of the International Classification of the External Cause of Injury when used as an instrument for injury prevention research

Objective: To demonstrate properties of the International Classification of the External Cause of Injury (ICECI) as a tool for use in injury prevention research. Methods: The Childhood Injury Prevention Study (CHIPS) is a prospective longitudinal follow up study of a cohort of 871 children 5 - 12 years of age, with a nested case crossover component. The ICECI is the latest tool in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) family and has been designed to improve the precision of coding injury events. The details of all injury events recorded in the study, as well as all measured injury related exposures, were coded using the ICECI. This paper reports a substudy on the utility and practicability of using the ICECI in the CHIPS to record exposures. Interrater reliability was quantified for a sample of injured participants using the Kappa statistic to measure concordance between codes independently coded by two research staff. Results: There were 767 diaries collected at baseline and event details from 563 injuries and exposure details from injury crossover periods. There were no event, location, or activity details which could not be coded using the ICECI. Kappa statistics for concordance between raters within each of the dimensions ranged from 0.31 to 0.93 for the injury events and 0.94 and 0.97 for activity and location in the control periods. Discussion: This study represents the first detailed account of the properties of the ICECI revealed by its use in a primary analytic epidemiological study of injury prevention. The results of this study provide considerable support for the ICECI and its further use.

Advances in (poly)phenol research: novel sources, bioavailability, bioaccumulation and bioactivity

In the last decades, increasing scientific evidence has correlated the regular consumption of (poly)phenol-rich foods to a potential reduction of chronic disease incidence and mortality. However, epidemiological evidence on the role of (poly)phenol intake against the risk of some chronic diseases is promising, but not conclusive. In this framework a proper approach to (poly)phenol research is requested, using a step by step strategy. The plant kingdom produces an overwhelming array of structurally diverse secondary metabolites, among which flavonoids and related phenolic and (poly)phenolic compounds constitute one of the most numerous and widely distributed group of natural products. To date, more than 8000 structures have been classified as members of the phytochemical class of (poly)phenol, and among them over 4000 flavonoids have been identified. For this reason, a detailed food (poly)phenolic characterization is essential to identify the compounds that will likely enter the human body upon consumption, to predict the metabolites that will be generated and to unravel the potential effects of phenolic rich food sources on human health. In the first part of this work the attention was focused on the phenolic characterization of fruit and vegetable supplements, considering the increasing attention recently addressed to the so called "nutraceuticals", and on the main coffee industry by-product, namely coffee silverskin. The interest oriented toward (poly)phenols is then extended to their metabolism within the human body, paramount in the framework of their putative health promoting effects. Like all nutrients and non-nutrients, once introduced through the diet, (poly)phenols are subjected to an intense metabolism, able to convert the native compounds into similar conjugated, as well as smaller and deeply modified molecules, which in turn could be further conjugated. Although great strides have been made in the last decades, some steps of the (poly)phenol metabolism remain unclear and are interesting points of research. In the second part of this work the research was focused on a specific bran fraction, namely aleurone, added in feed pellets and in bread to investigate the absorption, metabolism and bioavailability of its phenolic compounds in animal and humans, with a preliminary in vitro step to determine their potential bioaccesibility. This part outlines the best approaches to assess the bioavailability of specific phenolics in several experimental models. The physiological mechanisms explaining the epidemiological and observational data on phenolics and health, are still far from being unraveled or understood in full. Many published results on phenolic actions at cell levels are biased by the fact that aglycones or native compounds have been used, not considering the previously mentioned chemical and biological transformations. In the last part of this thesis work, a new approach in (poly)phenol bioactivity investigation is proposed, consisting of a medium-long term treatment of animals with a (poly)phenol source, in this specific case resveratrol, the detection of its metabolites to determine their possible specific tissue accumulation, and the evaluation of specific parameters and/or mechanism of action at target tissue level. To conclude, this PhD work has contributed to advancing the field, as novel sources of (poly)phenols have been described, the bioavailability of (poly)phenols contained in a novel specific bran fraction used as ingredient has been evaluated in animal and in humans, and, finally, the tissue accumulation of specific (poly)phenol metabolites and the evaluation of specific parameters and/or mechanism of action has been carried out. For these reasons, this PhD work should be considered an example of adequate approach to the investigation of (poly)phenols and of their bioactivity, unavoidable in the process of unequivocally defining their effects on human health.

Strategies to optimize the impact of nutritional surveys and epidemiological studies

The development of nutrition and health guidelines and policies requires reliable scientific information. Unfortunately, theoretical considerations and empirical evidence indicate that a large percentage of science-based claims rely on studies that fail to replicate. The session "Strategies to Optimize the Impact of Nutrition Surveys and Epidemiological Studies" focused on the elements of design, interpretation, and communication of nutritional surveys and epidemiological studies to enhance and encourage the production of reliable, objective evidence for use in developing dietary guidance for the public. The speakers called for more transparency of research, raw data, consistent data-staging techniques, and improved data analysis. New approaches to collecting data are urgently needed to increase the credibility and utility of findings from nutrition epidemiological studies. Such studies are critical for furthering our knowledge and understanding of the effects of diet on health.

Tooth wear in Irish teenagers: a laboratory and epidemiological study

Aim: To investigate the characteristics, development and determinants of toothwear among Irish schoolchildren. Methods: A cross-sectional (examination at 16-years-old) and longitudinal (examinations at 5-,12-,14-years) study were conducted. Two indices were used to measure toothwear, children/parents completed a demographic profile and questionnaire on oral hygiene and dietary practices, health, and lifestyle in both studies. Saliva was collected from consenting 16-year-olds. The explanatory variables for the cross-sectional and longitudinal study were derived from children/parents responses. Differences in salivary profiles were determined for subsets; the protein concentration was determined with Bradford protein assay and protein carbonyl concentration (a protein oxidation marker) was determined spectrophotometrically. Gel-electrophoresis and mass spectrometry determined proteins and ion chromatography inorganic ions. Statistical significance was accepted at p<0.05. Results: At 16-years-old the prevalence of toothwear with dentine visible was 44%. No difference in salivary flow rates existed. In unstimulated saliva a higher mean, protein carbonyl (p<0.0001) and total calcium concentration (p<0.002) existed for the group with moderate toothwear. In stimulated saliva the moderate toothwear group had a lower mean protein concentration(p<0.0001). The 2-DE protein spots prepared for a sub-group differed between those with toothwear and without. Mass spectrometry, identified one of the different proteins as IgA. For 16-year-olds, the self-reported factors indicated that brushing after breakfast was associated with lower toothwear scores(p<0.03). Nail-biting, being asthmatic or reporting a dry mouth were associated with higher toothwear scores(all p<0.05). Eating an apple daily or less was associated with less toothwear(p<0.002). In the longitudinal study toothwear into dentine at age five or 12-years was associated with more toothwear at age 14(all p<0.05). Discussion: The results illustrate the multifactorial aetiology of toothwear. The biochemical and physical correlates of saliva with toothwear requires further research. Conclusion: The impact of previous toothwear, salivary, dietary and personal factors on toothwear in the early permanent dentition is demonstrated.

Observational research on golf-related injuries

The determination of aetiological factors in sports injuries is challenging. Recently, investigators have devoted significant attention to this topic. A reasonable amount of studies provides information on the occurrence, aetiology, and severity of golf-related injuries. However, gaps of evidence still limit the understanding of the injury problem in golf and the comparability of epidemiological findings. Observational studies using surveys and medical records were reviewed. Surveys are suited to find precise occurrence patterns of golf-related injuries, but fail to adequately ascertain the levels of exposure and aetiological factors. Due to the proximity to the injury event, medical records are able to clearly identify the aetiology and severity of golf-related injuries. While reviewing observational studies using surveys a comment was provided on the methodological quality and risk of bias. Overall, these studies seem to be disturbed on their ability to produce generalizations and comparison of study findings. With the information obtained from reviewing observational studies and the collaboration of a panel of internationally recognised experts on golf science and sports injury research, a web-based bilingual questionnaire was developed and tested for one of the provided languages. The bilingual nature of the questionnaire is also expected to facilitate the acceptance of the scientific community and enable the translation to different languages. A standardised questionnaire applied in different cultural contexts is expected to help and further improve the comparability of epidemiological findings. The questionnaire was proficient in capturing information on golf-related injuries and participation habits of golfers. While using a wider outcome definition focusing on any type of physical complaints, episodes of injury could be recognized despite onset and level of severity. Questions on the need for medical attention, time loss, and impact on performance also enabled additional categorisation of severity.