Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

Why evolutionary realism underpins evolutionary economic analysis and theory

This paper offers a reply to Jochen Runde's critical appraisal of the ontological framework underpinning Dopfer and Potts's (2008) General Theory of Economic Evolution. We argue that Runde's comprehensive critique contains several of what we perceive to be misunderstandings in relation to the key concepts of ‘generic’ and ‘meso’ that we seek here to unpack and redress.

School education as social and economic governance : responsibilising communities through industry-school engagement

This article examines shifts in educational and social governance taking place in Queensland, Australia, through Industry School Engagement Strategy of Education Queensland and its Gateway Schools program. This significant educational initiative is set within the context of the social investment agenda first articulated in the education policy framework, Queensland State Education-2010. The article traces the historic extension of this governmental strategy through establishment of the Gateway Schools concept that brokers industry-school partnerships with global players in the Queensland economy. Industry sectors forming the partnerships include Minerals and Energy, Aerospace, Wine Tourism, Agribusiness, Manufacturing and Engineering, Building and Construction and ICT. We argue that this ‘post-bureaucratic’ model of schooling represents a new social settlement of neoliberal governance, in which educational outcomes align with economic objectives, and frame the conditions for community self-governance.

Social Procurement: Promoting the sustainability of NPOs through the transformation of economic, social and cultural capital

Social procurement provides a key source of income for the Third Sector, and is vital for the sustainability of many nonprofit organisations. Social procurement involves the exchange of economic capital from one organisation, typically government (although for-profit and non-profit organisations can also purchase), with a nonprofit organisations in order to deliver other forms of. It is this transformation of economic capital into other forms of capital (cultural, human, social) in the social procurement process, which is the focus of this paper. Four case studies, which are representative of the four main types of social procurement, will be examined in order to trace how economic capital is transformed into other types of capital in each of these cases. In so doing, the paper will advance our understanding of social procurement theoretically, and lead to a wider discussion about the role of social procurement in ensuring the sustainability of nonprofit organisations, and the civil societies in which they operate.

Fashion localisation in a global aesthetic market

This paper investigates how fashion circulates globally and is adapted and localised by consumers. The rise of fashion blogs, social networking, on-line retail and on-line streaming of fashion shows has exponentially increased the availability of fashion images globally, enabling a further multiplication of styles and looks. The geographical dispersion of production systems in third world countries, and the concentration of management and finance in first world countries are increasingly acknowledged as having an uneven social and economic effect. However, processes of hibridisation and creolisation give rise to new cultural forms where the local and the foreign are mixed in interesting ways. I argue that the current circulation of fashion must be understood as adaptation in which “outside aesthetic influence is integrated into and becomes part of an existing style tradition” (Lynch and Strauss, 2007, p. 154). This emergence of new local and eclectic styles denies assumptions in which consumers are disengaged while duped by a system of commodification. The paper argues that, through a process of “deterritorialisation”, “displacement” and “repatriation” (Appadurai 1996, p. 32), creative ordinary consumers are able to engage with fashion, reinventing it in the context of their local cultures.

Socio-economic differences in takeaway food consumption among adults

To examine socioeconomic differences in the frequency and types of takeaway foods consumed. Cross-sectional postal survey. Participants were asked about their usual consumption of overall takeaway food (< four times a month, or ≥ four times a month) and 22 specific takeaway food items (< once a month, or ≥ once a month): these latter foods were grouped into “healthy” and “less healthy” choices. Socioeconomic position was measured using education and equivalised household income and differences in takeaway food consumption were assessed by calculating prevalence ratios using log binomial regression. Adults aged 25–64 years from Brisbane, Australia were randomly selected from the electoral roll (N = 903, 63.7% response rate). Compared with their more educated counterparts, the least educated were more regular consumers of overall takeaway food, fruit/vegetable juice, and less regular consumers of sushi. For the “less healthy” items, the least educated more regularly consumed potato chips, savoury pies, fried chicken, and non-diet soft drinks; however, the least educated were less likely to consume curry. Household income was not associated with overall takeaway consumption. The lowest income group were more regular consumers of fruit/vegetable juice compared with the highest income group. Among the “less healthy” items, the lowest income group were more regular consumers of fried fish, ice-cream, and milk shakes, while curry was consumed less regularly. The frequency and types of takeaway foods consumed by socioeconomically disadvantaged groups may contribute to inequalities in overweight/obesity and chronic disease.

Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Economic growth and suicide rate changes : a case in China from 1982 to 2005

It is to estimate the trend of suicide rate changes during the past three decades in China and try to identify its social and economic correlates. Official data of suicide rates and economic indexes during 1982–2005 from Shandong Province of China were analyzed. The suicide data were categorized for the rural / urban location and gender, and the economic indexes include GDP, GDP per capita, rural income, and urban income, all adjusted for inflation. We found a significant increase of economic development and decrease of suicide rates over the past decades under study. The suicide rate decrease is correlated with the tremendous growth of economy. The unusual decrease of Chinese suicide rates in the past decades is accounted for within the Chinese cultural contexts and maybe by the Strain Theory of Suicide.

Property investment, construction and economic growth : the case of Malaysia

It is generally accepted that there is a close relationship between property investment and construction activity. The construction sector plays a crucial role in economic development, especially for a developing nation such as Malaysia. However, the volume of new properties added to the property market is only a fraction of the total volume of the property market. Is the conventional assumption of the relationship between property investment and construction supported by empirical data? This paper revisits the tripartite relationships between economic growths, property investment and construction activities with official Malaysian 2000Q1-2010Q4 quarterly time series data. The Granger causality tests are used to establish the causality runs from the GDP to the value of property transactions, and the growth of construction activities to GDP growth. The result is expected to be useful for policymakers and industrial practitioners in formulating industrial policies and corporate strategies.

Impact of the Corporate Law Economic Reform Program Act 1999 on initial public offering prospectus earnings forecasts

Commencing 13 March 2000, the Corporate Law Economic Reform Program Act 1999 (Cth) introduced changes to the regulation of corporate fundraising in Australia. In particular, it effected a reduction in the litigation risk associated with initial public offering prospectus disclosure.We find that the change is associated with a reduction in forecast frequency and an increase in forecast value relevance, but not with forecast error or bias. These results confirm previous findings that changes in litigation risk affect the level but not the quality of disclosure. They also suggest that the reforms’ objectives of reducing fundraising costs while improving investor protection, have been achieved.

Genesis and role of standards : theoretical foundations and socio-economical model for the construction and use of standards

A key issue in the economic development and performance of organizations is the existence of standards. Their definition and control are sources of power and it is important to understand their concept, as it gives standards their direction and their legitimacy, and to explore how they are represented and applied. The difficulties posed by classical micro-economics in establishing a theory of standardization that is compatible with its fundamental axiomatic are acknowledged. We propose to reconsider the problem by taking the opposite perspective in questioning its theoretical base and by reformulating assumptions about the independent and autonomous decisions taken by actors. The Theory of Conventions will offer us a theoretical framework and tools enabling us to understand the systemic dimension and dynamic structure of standards. These will be seen as a special case of conventions. This work aims to provide a sound basis and promote a better consciousness in the development of global project management standards. It aims also to emphasize that social construction is not a matter of copyright but a matter of open minds, collective cognitive process and freedom for the common wealth.

Genesis and role of standards : theoretical foundations and socio-economical model for the construction and use of standards

A key issue for the economic development and for performance of organizations is the existence of standards. As their definitions and control are source of power, it seems to be important to understand the concept and to wonder about the representations authorized by the concept which give their direction and their legitimacy. The difficulties of classical microeconomics of establishing a theory of standardisation compatible with its fundamental axiomatic are underlined. We propose to reconsider the problem by carrying out the opposite way: to question the theoretical base, by reformulating assumptions on the autonomy of the choice of the actors. The theory of conventions will offer us both a theoretical framework and tools, enabling us to understand the systemic dimension and dynamic structure of standards seen as special case of conventions. This work aims thus to provide a sound basis and promote a better consciousness in the development of global project management standards, aiming also to underline that social construction is not a matter of copyright but a matter of open minds, collective cognitive process and freedom for the common wealth.