A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.

Proving a market for a startup befor scaling using the hypothesis-driven entrepreneurship process

The year is 2015 and the startup and tech business ecosphere has never seen more activity. In New York City alone, the tech startup industry is on track to amass $8 billion dollars in total funding – the highest in 7 years (CB Insights, 2015). According to the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurship (2015), this figure represents just 20% of the total funding in the United States. Thanks to platforms that link entrepreneurs with investors, there are simply more funding opportunities than ever, and funding can be initiated in a variety of ways (angel investors, venture capital firms, crowdfunding). And yet, in spite of all this, according to Forbes Magazine (2015), nine of ten startups will fail. Because of the unpredictable nature of the modern tech industry, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly why 90% of startups fail – but the general consensus amongst top tech executives is that “startups make products that no one wants” (Fortune, 2014). In 2011, author Eric Ries wrote a book called The Lean Startup in attempts to solve this all-too-familiar problem. It was in this book where he developed the framework for The Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, an iterative process that aims at proving a market before actually launching a product. Ries discusses concepts such as the Minimum Variable Product, the smallest set of activities necessary to disprove a hypothesis (or business model characteristic). Ries encourages acting briefly and often: if you are to fail, then fail fast. In today’s fast-moving economy, an entrepreneur cannot afford to waste his own time, nor his customer’s time. The purpose of this thesis is to conduct an in-depth of analysis of Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, in order to test market viability of a reallife startup idea, ShowMeAround. This analysis will follow the scientific Lean Startup approach; for the purpose of developing a functional business model and business plan. The objective is to conclude with an investment-ready startup idea, backed by rigorous entrepreneurial study.

Why do females mate with multiple males ? The sexually selected sperm hypothesis

One debated issues in evolutionary biology is, why in many species females mate with multiple males. Several hypotheses have been put forward, yet the benefits of multiple mating (here defined as mating with several males) remain unclear in many cases. The sperm sexual selection (SSS) hypothesis has been developed to account for the widespread occurrence of multiple mating in females. It argues that multiple mating by females may rapidly spread, when initially a small fraction of the females mate multiply, and if there is a heritable difference among males in one or several of the four characteristics: (1) the quantity of sperm they produce; (2) the success of their sperm in reaching and fertilizing an egg; (3) their ability to displace the sperm that females stored during previous mating; and (4) their ability to prevent any other male from subsequently introducing sperm (e.g., differential efficiency of mating plugs).

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

A hypothesis for the geochemical anomaly in the North Creek Watershed /

A regional geochemical reconnaissance by bottom stream sediment sampling, has delineated an area of high metal content in the north central sector of the North Creek Watershed. Development of a geochemical model, relating to the relative chemical concentrations derived from the chemical analyses of bottom sediments, suspended sediments, stream waters and well waters collected from the north central sector, was designed to discover the source of the anomaly. Samples of each type of material were analysed by the A.R.L. Direct Reading Multi-element Emission Spectrograph Q.A. 137 for elements: Na, K, Ca, Sr, Si, As, Pb, Zn, Cd, Ni, Ti, Ag, Mo, Be, Fe, AI, Mn, Cu, Cr, P and Y. Anomalous results led to the discovery of a spring, the waters of which carried high concentrations of Zn, Cd, Pb, As, Ni, Ti, Ag, Sr and Si. In addition, the spring waters had high concentrations of Na, Ca, Mg, 504 , alkalinity, N03' and low concentrations of K, Cl and NH3. Increased specific conductivity (up to 2500 ~mho/cm.) was noted in the spring waters as well as increased calculated total dissolved solids (up to 2047 mg/l) and increased ionic strength (up to 0.06). On the other hand, decreases were noted in water temperature (8°C), pH (pH 7.2) and Eh (+.154 volts). Piezometer nests were installed in the anomalous north central sector of the watershed. In accordance with the slope of the piezometric surface from wells cased down to the till/bedrock interface, groundwater flow is directed from the recharge area (northwest of the anomaly) towards the artesian spring via the highly fractured dolostone aquifer of the Upper Eramosa Member. The bedrock aquifer is confined by the overlying Halton till and the underlying Lower Eramosa Member (Vinemount Shale). The oxidation of sphalerite and galena and the dissolution of gypsum, celestite, calcite, and dolomite within the Eramosa Member, contributed its highly, dissolved constituents to the circulating groundwaters, the age of which is greater than 20 years as determined by tritium dating. Groundwater is assumed to flow along the Vinemount Shale and discharge as an artesian spring where the shale unit becomes discontinuous. The anomaly is located on a topographic low where bedrock is close to the surface. Thermodynamic evaluation of the major ion speciation from the anomalous spring and surface waters, showed gypsum to be supersaturated in these spring waters. Downstream from the spring, the loss of carbon dioxide from the spring waters resulted in the supersaturation with respect to calcite, aragonite, magnesite and dolomite. This corresponded with increases in Eh (+.304 volts) and pH (pH 8.5) in the anomalous surface waters. In conclusion, the interaction of groundwaters within the highly, mineralized carbonate source (Eramosa Member) resulted in the characteristic Ca*Mg*HC03*S04 spring water at the anomalous site, which appeared to be the principle effect upon controlling the anomalous surface water chemistry.

The bees of Niagara: a test of the intermediate disturbance hypothesis /

This study examined the bee fauna of the Carolinian Zone in Ontario, Canada. In 2003, 15687 individuals from 152 species of bees were collected. Tliere were many rare species but few abundant species. There were three distinct bee seasons. The Niagara bee assemblage was less diverse compared to other Carolinian Zone assemblages and types of landscapes. This study also examined how anthropogenic disturbance affects the diversity of bee assemblages. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) was tested by selecting field sites subject to low, intermediate, and high disturbance. Intermediate disturbance had the highest species richness (SR=1 15) and most bees (N=556I), followed by low disturbance (SR= 100, N=2975), then high disturbance (SR=72, N=1364), supporting the IDH. Increased species richness in areas of intermediate disturbance was due to higher abundance, possibly because more blooming flowers were found there. Bees were larger in high disturbance areas but smaller in areas of high and intermediate disturbance.

Child care by choice or by default? : examining the experiences of unregulated home-based child care for women in paid work and training

This thesis aims to uncover the dynamics, causes and outcomes of women's reliance on unregulated home-based child care in Ontario, Canada, and the implications ofthis form of care for women's equality. Drawing on a longitudinal qualitative study, I examine the diverse experience of 14 women using home-based child care and engaged in both paid work/training and care work for children under the age of six, and draw comparisons with users of other forms of child care. I argue that home-based child care involves high levels of instability for continuity of care and is chosen largely as a default position based on economic considerations. It represents a compromise between the demands of social reproduction and paid work/training that entangles mothers in relations of exploitation with care providers. Doing so leaves both mothers and care providers socially and economically vulnerable and relying on social networks to fill in the gaps.

Morphonotactic and phonotactic processing in German-speaking adults

Based on the theoretical framework of Dressler and Dziubalska-Kołaczyk (2006a,b), the Strong Morphonotactic Hypothesis will be tested. It assumes that phonotactics helps in decomposition of words into morphemes: if a certain sequence occurs only or only by default over a morpheme boundary and is thus a prototypical morphonotactic sequence, it should be processed faster and more accurately than a purely phonotactic sequence. Studies on typical and atypical first language acquisition in English, Lithuanian and Polish have shown significant differences between the acquisition of morphonotactic and phonotactic consonant clusters: Morphonotactic clusters are acquired earlier and faster by typically developing children, but are more problematic for children with Specific Language Impairment. However, results on acquisition are less clear for German. The focus of this contribution is whether and how German-speaking adults differentiate between morphonotactic and phonotactic consonant clusters and vowel-consonant sequences in visual word recognition. It investigates whether sub-lexical letter sequences are found faster when the target sequence is separated from the word stem by a morphological boundary than when it is a part of a morphological root. An additional factor that is addressed concerns the position of the target cluster in the word. Due to the bathtub effect, sequences in peripheral positions in a word are more salient and thus facilitate processing more than word-internal positions. Moreover, for adults the primacy effect most favors word-initial position (whereas for young children the recency effect most favors word- final position). Our study discusses effects of phonotactic vs. morphonotactic cluster status and of position within the word.

The law of psychic phenomena : working hypothesis for the systematic study of hypnotism. spiritism, mental therapeutic, etc.

UANL

Valuing Sovereign Default Risk - A Pricing Formula and its Empirical Results for the Mexican External Debt.

Rapport de recherche

The Hygiene Hypothesis and the risk of Crohn’s disease : a case-control study utilizing prospectively-collected exposure data from an administrative database

La maladie de Crohn (MC) pédiatrique a des conséquences majeures sur la qualité de vie des patients atteints (troubles de croissance, absentéisme scolaire, etc). L’étiologie de la MC est inconnue. La théorie de l’hygiène (TH) stipule que les conditions de vie sanitaires des pays industrialisés préviennent l’exposition antigénique et empêchent le développement de la tolérance immunitaire chez les enfants. Ceci mènerait à une réaction excessive du système immunitaire lors d’expositions subséquentes et engendrerait le développement de maladies inflammatoires chroniques telles la MC. Objectif: Analyser l’association entre la fréquence, la temporalité et le type d’infections infantiles (indicateurs d’environnements pourvus d’antigènes) et le risque de MC pédiatrique. Une étude cas-témoin fût réalisée, les cas de MC provenant d’un centre hospitalier tertiaire montréalais. Les témoins, provenant des registres de la Régie d’assurance maladie du Québec (RAMQ), furent appariés aux cas selon leur âge, sexe et lieu de résidence. L’exposition aux infections fût déterminée grâce aux codes de diagnostic ICD-9 inscrits dans la base de données de la RAMQ. Un modèle de régression logistique conditionnelle fût construit afin d’analyser l’association entre infections et MC. Des ratios de cotes (RC) et intervalles de confiance à 95% (IC 95%) furent calculés. Résultats: 409 cas et 1621 témoins furent recrutés. Les résultats de l’analyse suggèrent un effet protecteur des infections infantiles sur le risque de MC (RC: 0,67 [IC: 0,48-0,93], p=0,018), plus particulièrement au cours des 5 premières années de vie (RC: 0.74 [IC: 0,57-0,96], p=0,025). Les infections rénales et urinaires, ainsi que les infections des voies orales et du système nerveux central (virale), semblent particulièrement associées à l’effet protecteur. Les résultats de l’étude appuient la théorie de l’hygiène: l’exposition aux infections infantiles pourrait réduire le risque de MC pédiatrique.

Neuroticism, intelligence, and intra-individual variability in elementary cognitive tasks : Testing the mental noise hypothesis. 'Neuroticismo, inteligencia y variabilidad intra-individual en tareas cognitivas elementales : contraste de la hip??tesis del ruido neuronal'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n