Detecting offsets in GPS time series: first results from the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment

The accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) time series is degraded by the presence of offsets. To assess the effectiveness of methods that detect and remove these offsets, we designed and managed the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment. We simulated time series that mimicked realistic GPS data consisting of a velocity component, offsets, white and flicker noises (1/f spectrum noises) composed in an additive model. The data set was made available to the GPS analysis community without revealing the offsets, and several groups conducted blind tests with a range of detection approaches. The results show that, at present, manual methods (where offsets are hand picked) almost always give better results than automated or semi‒automated methods (two automated methods give quite similar velocity bias as the best manual solutions). For instance, the fifth percentile range (5% to 95%) in velocity bias for automated approaches is equal to 4.2 mm/year (most commonly ±0.4 mm/yr from the truth), whereas it is equal to 1.8 mm/yr for the manual solutions (most commonly 0.2 mm/yr from the truth). The magnitude of offsets detectable by manual solutions is smaller than for automated solutions, with the smallest detectable offset for the best manual and automatic solutions equal to 5 mm and 8 mm, respectively. Assuming the simulated time series noise levels are representative of real GPS time series, robust geophysical interpretation of individual site velocities lower than 0.2–0.4 mm/yr is therefore certainly not robust, although a limit of nearer 1 mm/yr would be a more conservative choice. Further work to improve offset detection in GPS coordinates time series is required before we can routinely interpret sub‒mm/yr velocities for single GPS stations.

Ramadan school holidays as a natural experiment : impacts of seasonality on school dropout in Bangladesh

In 2000, Ramadan school vacation coincided with the original annual exam period of December in Bangladesh. This forced schools to pre-pone their final exam schedules in November, which was the month before the harvest begins. 'Ramadan 2000' is a natural experiment that reduced the labor demand for children during the exam period. Using household level panel data of 2000 and 2003, and after controlling for various unobservable variations including individual fixed effects, aggregate year effects, and subdistrict-level year effects, this paper finds evidence of statistically significant impact of seasonal labor demand on school dropout in Bangladesh among the children from agricultural households.

Interface between culturally based preferences and genetic preferences: female mate choice in Poecilia reticulata.

The relative contribution of genetic and socio-cultural factors in the shaping of behavior is of fundamental importance to biologists and social scientists, yet it has proven to be extremely difficult to study in a controlled, experimental fashion. Here I describe experiments that examined the strength of genetic and cultural (imitative) factors in determining female mate choice in the guppy, Poecilia reticulata. Female guppies from the Paria River in Trinidad have a genetic, heritable preference for the amount of orange body color possessed by males. Female guppies will, however, also copy (imitate) the mate choice of other females in that when two males are matched for orange color, an "observer" female will copy the mate choice of another ("model") female. Three treatments were undertaken in which males differed by an average of 12%, 24%, or 40% of the total orange body color. In all cases, observer females viewed a model female prefer the less colorful male. When males differed by 12% or 24%, observer females preferred the less colorful male and thus copied the mate choice of others, despite a strong heritable preference for orange body color in males. When males differed by 40% orange body color, however, observer females preferred the more colorful male and did not copy the mate choice of the other female. In this system, then, imitation can "override" genetic preferences when the difference between orange body color in males is small or moderate, but genetic factors block out imitation effects when the difference in orange body color in males is large. This experiment provides the first attempt to experimentally examine the relative strength of cultural and genetic preferences for a particular trait and suggests that these two factors moderate one another in shaping social behavior.

The economics of machinery choice in corn production /

Cover title.

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Center of shelf attention:understanding the role of visual attention on product choice

Two eye-tracking studies and an offline experiment explored the effect of central shelf location on attention and choice. Investigation of the attention process revealed that the central gaze cascade effect, progressively increasing attention focused on the central option predicted choice.

Think before you eat: Calories and exercise equivalents presented on menus at point-of-choice

Although calorie information at the point-of-purchase at fast food restaurants is proposed as a method to decrease calorie choices and combat obesity, research results have been mixed. Much of the supportive research has weak methodology, and is limited. There is a demonstrated need to develop better techniques to assist consumers to make lower calorie food choices. Eating at fast food restaurants has been positively associated with weight gain. The current study explored the possibility of adding exercise equivalents (EE) (physical activity required to burn off the calories in the food), along with calorie information as a possible way to facilitate lower calorie choice at the point-of-choice in fast food restaurants. This three-group experimental study, in 18-34 year old, overweight and obese women, examines whether presenting caloric information in the form of EE at the point-of-choice at fast food restaurants, will lead to lower calorie food choices compared to presenting simple caloric information or no information at all. Methods. A randomized repeated measures experiment was conducted. Participants ordered a fast food meal from Burger King with menus that contained only the names of the food choices (Lunch 1). One week later (Lunch 2), study participants were given one of three menus that varied: no information, calorie information, or calorie information and EE. Study participants included 62 college aged students. Additionally, the study controlled for dietary restraint by blocking participants, before randomization, to the three groups. Results. A repeated measures analysis of variance was conducted. The study was not sufficiently powered, and while the study was designed to determine large effect sizes, a small effect size of .026, was determined. No significant differences were found in the foods ordered among the various menu conditions. Conclusion. Menu labeling alone might not be enough to reduce calories at the point-of-choice at restaurants. Additional research is necessary to determine if calorie information and EE at the point-of-choice would lead to fewer calories chosen at a meal. Studies should also look at long-term, repeated exposure to determine the effectiveness of calories and or EE at the point-of-choice at fast food restaurants.

Think Before You Eat: Calories and Exercise Equivalents Presented on Menus at Point-of-Choice

Although calorie information at the point-of-purchase at fast food restaurants is proposed as a method to decrease calorie choices and combat obesity, research results have been mixed. Much of the supportive research has weak methodology, and is limited. There is a demonstrated need to develop better techniques to assist consumers to make lower calorie food choices. Eating at fast food restaurants has been positively associated with weight gain. The current study explored the possibility of adding exercise equivalents (EE) (physical activity required to burn off the calories in the food), along with calorie information as a possible way to facilitate lower calorie choice at the point-of-choice in fast food restaurants. This three-group experimental study, in 18-34 year old, overweight and obese women, examines whether presenting caloric information in the form of EE at the point-of-choice at fast food restaurants, will lead to lower calorie food choices compared to presenting simple caloric information or no information at all. Methods: A randomized repeated measures experiment was conducted. Participants ordered a fast food meal from Burger King with menus that contained only the names of the food choices (Lunch 1). One week later (Lunch 2), study participants were given one of three menus that varied: no information, calorie information, or calorie information and EE. Study participants included 62 college aged students. Additionally, the study controlled for dietary restraint by blocking participants, before randomization, to the three groups. Results: A repeated measures analysis of variance was conducted. The study was not sufficiently powered, and while the study was designed to determine large effect sizes, a small effect size of .026, was determined. No significant differences were found in the foods ordered among the various menu conditions. Conclusion: Menu labeling alone might not be enough to reduce calories at the point-of-choice at restaurants. Additional research is necessary to determine if calorie information and EE at the point-of-choice would lead to fewer calories chosen at a meal. Studies should also look at long-term, repeated exposure to determine the effectiveness of calories and or EE at the point-of-choice at fast food restaurants.

A field experiment on a steel Gerber-truss bridge for damage detection utilizing vehicle-induced vibrations

A field experiment was conducted on a real continuous steel Gerber-truss bridge with artificial damage applied. This article summarizes the results of the experiment for bridge damage detection utilizing traffic-induced vibrations. It investigates the sensitivities of a number of quantities to bridge damage including the identified modal parameters and their statistical patterns, Nair’s damage indicator and its statistical pattern and different sets of measurement points. The modal parameters are identified by autoregressive time-series models. The decision on bridge health condition is made and the sensitivity of variables is evaluated with the aid of the Mahalanobis–Taguchi system, a multivariate pattern recognition tool. Several observations are made as follows. For the modal parameters, although bridge damage detection can be achieved by performing Mahalanobis–Taguchi system on certain modal parameters of certain sets of measurement points, difficulties were faced in subjective selection of meaningful bridge modes and low sensitivity of the statistical pattern of the modal parameters to damage. For Nair’s damage indicator, bridge damage detection could be achieved by performing Mahalanobis–Taguchi system on Nair’s damage indicators of most sets of measurement points. As a damage indicator, Nair’s damage indicator was superior to the modal parameters. Three main advantages were observed: it does not require any subjective decision in calculating Nair’s damage indicator, thus potential human errors can be prevented and an automatic detection task can be achieved; its statistical pattern has high sensitivity to damage and, finally, it is flexible regarding the choice of sets of measurement points.

Street characteristics preferred for transportation walking among older adults: a choice-based conjoint analysis with manipulated photographs

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about the relationships between micro-scale environmental factors and older adults' walking for transport is limited and inconsistent. This is probably due to methodological limitations, such as absence of an accurate neighborhood definition, lack of environmental heterogeneity, environmental co-variation, and recall bias. Furthermore, most previous studies are observational in nature. We aimed to address these limitations by investigating the effects of manipulating photographs on micro-scale environmental factors on the appeal of a street for older adults' transportation walking. Secondly, we used latent class analysis to examine whether subgroups could be identified that have different environmental preferences for transportation walking. Thirdly, we investigated whether these subgroups differed in socio-demographic, functional and psychosocial characteristics, current level of walking and environmental perceptions of their own street.

METHODS: Data were collected among 1131 Flemish older adults through an online (n = 940) or an interview version of the questionnaire (n = 191). This questionnaire included a choice-based conjoint exercise with manipulated photographs of a street. These manipulated photographs originated from one panoramic photograph of an existing street that was manipulated on nine environmental attributes. Participants chose which of two presented streets they would prefer to walk for transport.

RESULTS: In the total sample, sidewalk evenness had by far the greatest appeal for transportation walking. The other environmental attributes were less important. Four subgroups that differed in their environmental preferences for transportation walking were identified. In the two largest subgroups (representing 86% of the sample) sidewalk evenness was the most important environmental attribute. In the two smaller subgroups (each comprising 7% of the sample), traffic volume and speed limit were the most important environmental attributes for one, and the presence of vegetation and a bench were the most important environmental attributes for the other. This latter subgroup included a higher percentage of service flat residents than the other subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the provision of even sidewalks should be considered a priority when developing environmental interventions aiming to stimulate older adults' transportation walking. Natural experiments are needed to confirm whether our findings can be translated to real environments and actual transportation walking behavior.

Sexual selection in a tropical fruit fly : role of a plant derived chemical in mate choice

The specific mechanisms by which selective pressures affect individuals are often difficult to resolve. In tephritid fruit flies, males respond strongly and positively to certain plant derived chemicals. Sexual selection by female choice has been hypothesized as the mechanism driving this behaviour in certain species, as females preferentially mate with males that have fed on these chemicals. This hypothesis is, to date, based on studies of only very few species and its generality is largely untested. We tested the hypothesis on different spatial scales (small cage and seminatural field-cage) using the monophagous fruit fly, Bactrocera cacuminata. This species is known to respond to methyl eugenol (ME), a chemical found in many plant species and one upon which previous studies have focused. Contrary to expectation, no obvious female choice was apparent in selecting ME-fed males over unfed males as measured by the number of matings achieved over time, copulation duration, or time of copulation initiation. However, the number of matings achieved by ME-fed males was significantly greater than unfed males 16 and 32 days after exposure to ME in small cages (but not in a field-cage). This delayed advantage suggests that ME may not influence the pheromone system of B. cacuminata but may have other consequences, acting on some other fitness consequence (e.g., enhancement of physiology or survival) of male exposure to these chemicals. We discuss the ecological and evolutionary implications of our findings to explore alternate hypotheses to explain the patterns of response of dacine fruit flies to specific plant-derived chemicals.