Integrating drivers influencing the detection of plant pests carried in the international cut flower trade

This paper analyses the cut flower market as an example of an invasion pathway along which species of non-indigenous plant pests can travel to reach new areas. The paper examines the probability of pest detection by assessing information on pest detection and detection effort associated with the import of cut flowers. We test the link between the probability of plant pest arrivals as a precursor to potential invasion, and volume of traded flowers using count data regression models. The analysis is applied to the UK import of specific genera of cut flowers form Kenya between 1996 and 2004. There is a link between pest detection and the Genus of cut flower imported. Hence, pest detection efforts should focus on identifying and targeting those imported plants with a high risk of carrying pest species. For most of the plants studied efforts allocated to inspection have a significant influence on the probabilty of pest detction. However, by better targetting inspection efforts, it is shown that plant inspection effort could be reduced without increasing the risk of pest entry. Similarly, for most of the plants analysed, an increase in volume traded will not necessarily lead to an increase in the number of pests entering the UK. For some species, such as conclude that analysis at the rank of plant Genus is important both to understand the effectiveness of plant pest detection efforts and consequently to manage the risk of introduction of non-indigenous species.

A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Fluctuating abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a calving ground off coastal Brazil

The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population that uses Abrolhos Bank, off the east coast of Brazil as a breeding ground is increasing. To describe temporal changes in the relative abundance of humpback whales around Abrolhos, seven years (1998-2004) of whale count data were collected during July through to November. During one-hour-scans, observers determined group size within 9.3 km (5 n.m.) of a land-based observing station. A total Of 930 scans, comprising 7996 sightings of adults and 2044 calves were analysed using generalized linear models that included variables for time of day, day of the season, years and two-way interactions as possible predictors. The pattern observed was the gradual build-up and decline in whale counts within seasons. Patterns and peaks of adult and calf counts varied among years. Although fluctuation was observed, there was generally an increasing trend in adult counts among years. Calf counts increased only in 2004. These fluctuations may have been caused by some environmental conditions in humpback whales` summering grounds and also by changes in spatial-temporal concentrations in Abrolhos Bank. The general pattern observed within the study area mirrored what was observed in the whole Abrolhos Bank. Knowledge of the consistency with which humpback whales use this important nursing area should prove beneficial for designing future monitoring programmes especially related to whale watching activities around Abrolhos Archipelago.

Power series generalized nonlinear models

We introduce in this paper a new class of discrete generalized nonlinear models to extend the binomial, Poisson and negative binomial models to cope with count data. This class of models includes some important models such as log-nonlinear models, logit, probit and negative binomial nonlinear models, generalized Poisson and generalized negative binomial regression models, among other models, which enables the fitting of a wide range of models to count data. We derive an iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood and discuss inference on the parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated with an application to a real data set. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ATIVIDADE MICROBIANA E PROPRIEDADES BIOQUÍMICAS do SOLO RESULTANTES da APLICAÇÃO DE GESSO AGRÍCOLA NA CULTURA do REPOLHO

Conselho Nacional do Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Resistance of cattle of various genetic groups to the tick Rhipicephalus microplus and the relationship with coat traits

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Resistance of beef cattle of two genetic groups to ectoparasites and gastrointestinal nematodes in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The resistance to infestations by ectoparasites and infections by gastrointestinal nematodes was studied in 45 animals (males and females) of two genetic groups: purebred Nelore (NI, n=28) and Three-Cross (1/2 Angus+1/4 Canchim+1/4 Nelore - TC, n=17). The animals were monitored for 24months, during which they were left to graze in tropical pastures without receiving treatment for parasites. Each month the animals were examined for infestations by external parasites, to count the numbers of cattle ticks Rhipicephalus microplus with diameter greater than 4.5mm present on the left side, horn flies (Haematobia irritans) present in the lumbar region and botfly larvae (Dermatobia hominis) present on the entire body. The H. irritans counts were performed with the aid of digital photographs. At the time of examination, fecal samples were collected to count the eggs per gram (EPG) and to perform coprocultures, and peripheral blood samples were drawn to determine the packed cell volume (PCV) and to count the eosinophils. For statistical analysis, the count data were transformed into log10 (n+1), where n is the number of parasites. For PCV, significant effects (P<0.05) were found for collection month (CO), genetic group (GG) and gender (SX), with means and respective standard errors of 41.5±0.65% for the NI animals, 39.3±0.83% for the TC, 41.5±0.72% for the females and 39.3±0.77% for the males. Regarding the eosinophil counts, only the effect of sex was significant (P<0.01), with means and respective standard errors of 926.0±46.2/μL, for males and 1088.0±43.8/μL of blood, for females. The NI animals presented lower mean counts for all the external parasites compared to the TC animals (P<0.01). For ticks, the transformed means followed by standard errors for the NI and TC animals were 0.06±0.01 and 0.34±0.02, while for horn flies these were 0.92±0.05 and 1.36±0.06 and for botfly larvae they were 0.05±0.03 and 0.45±0.05, respectively. The average EPG values were only influenced by CO (P<0.01). The coprocultures revealed the presence of the following endoparasites: Haemonchus spp., Cooperia spp., Oesophagostomum spp. and Trichostrongylus spp., the last in smaller proportion. There were no significant differences between the genetic groups for the endoparasite loads, except for Cooperia spp., which were present in greater number (P<0.05) in the NI group. The results obtained in this experiment confirm previous findings of greater susceptibility of the Nelore breed to Cooperia spp. and high resistance to ectoparasites. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Dryinidae (Hymenoptera, Chrysidoidea) da estação ecológica de Jataí, Luiz Antônio, SP, Brasil

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Entomologia Agrícola) - FCAV

Distribuição espacial do percevejo-marrom, Euschistus heros (Fabricius, 1798) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), na cultura da soja, utilizando geoestatística

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV

Genetic parameters and investigation of genotype x environment interactions in Nellore x Hereford crossbred for resistance to cattle ticks in different regions of Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Factors associated with physical-activity performance by older individuals in a medium-sized city in São Paulo State, Brazil

Physical activity has been scientifically discussed as fundamental in the process of healthy ageing. Hence, this study aimed at determining the factors that influence older people to perform physical activities. The complete IPAQ (International Physical Activity Questionnaire) was applied to a population-based sample consisting of 364 elderly persons in the city of Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil. Days of physical activity performed by the older people were considered by taking into account household and leisure activities. Models for count data were fitted by including socio-demographic variables as well as those related to life satisfaction. It was shown that housework physical-activity performance is associated with female, who predominantly showed to be more active in all levels. Male seemed to be more predisposed to perform lighter recreation, sports and leisure-time physical activities, such as walking. Additionally, poor schooling showed to be decisive for not performing physical activities both at home and during leisure.

Modelos lineares generalizados bayesianos para dados longitudinais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Decentralization and corruption: evidence from primary health-care programmes

The aim of this article is to evaluate whether there is an association between decentralization and corruption. In order to do so we analyse Brazilian health-care programmes that are run locally. To construct objective measures of corruption, we use the information from the reports of the auditing programme of the local governments of Brazil. Results point that there is no relationship between decentralization and corruption, whatever the measure of decentralization used.

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.

Recent shift from forest to savanna burning in the Amazon Basin observed by satellite

The numbers of fires detected on forest, savanna and transition lands during the 2002-10 biomass burning seasons in Amazonia are shown using fire count data and co-located land cover classifications from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The ratio of forest fires to savanna fires has varied substantially over the study period, with a maximum ratio of 0.65:1 in 2005 and a minimum ratio of 0.27:1 in 2009, with the four lowest years occurring in 2007-10. The burning during the droughts of 2007 and 2010 is attributed to a higher number of savanna fires relative to the drought of 2005. A decrease in the regional mean single scattering albedo of biomass burning aerosols, consistent with the shift from forest to savanna burning, is also shown. During the severe drought of 2010, forest fire detections were lower in many areas compared with 2005, even though the drought was more severe in 2010. This result suggests that improved fire management practices, including stricter burning regulations as well as lower deforestation burning, may have reduced forest fires in 2010 relative to 2005 in some areas of the Amazon Basin.