953 resultados para What-if Analysis
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This study investigated, retrospectively, whether recidivism in a sample of court-ordered'graduates of an alcohol education and awareness program could be predicted. This alcohol education program was based on adult education principles and was philosophically akin to the thoughts of Drs. Jack Mezirow, Stephen Brookfield, and Patricia Cranton. Data on the sample of 214 Halton IDEA (Impaired Driver Education and Awareness) graduates were entered into a spread sheet. Descriptive statistics were generated. Each of the 214 program graduates had taken several tests during the course of the IDEA program. These tests measured knowledge, attitude about impaired driving, and degree of alcohol involvement. Test scores were analyzed to determine whether those IDEA graduates who recidivated differed in any measurable way from those who had no further criminal convictions after a period of at least three years. Their criminal records were obtained from the Canadian Police Information Centre (CPIC). Those program graduates who reoffended were compared to the vast majority who did not reoffend. Results of the study indicated that there was no way to determine who would recidivate from the data that were collected. Further studies could use a qualitative model. Follow-up interviews could be used to determine what impact, if any, attendance at the IDEA program had on the life of the graduates.
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Ten pieces originally published in the Columbian Centinel. A later edition with imprint New York, Printed for E. Sargeant, 1809, contains two additional pieces.
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Mickey Mouse, one of the world's most recognizable cartoon characters, did not wear a shirt in his earliest incarnation in theatrical shorts and, for many years, Donald Duck did not wear pants and still rarely does so. Especially when one considers the era in which these figures were first created by the Walt Disney Studio, in the 1920s and 1930s, why are they portrayed without full clothing? The obvious answer, of course, is that they are animals, and animals do not wear clothes. But these are no ordinary animals: in most cases, they do wear clothing - some clothing, at least - and they walk on two legs, talk in a more or less intelligible fashion, and display a number of other anthropomorphic traits. If they are essentially animals, why do they wear clothing at all? On the other hand, if these characters are more human than animal, as suggested by other behavioral traits - they walk, talk, work, read, and so on - why are they not more often fully clothed? To answer these questions I undertook three major research strategies used to gather evidence: interpretive textual analysis of 321 cartoons; secondary analysis of interviews conducted with the animators who created the Disney characters; and historical and archival research on the Disney Company and on the times and context in which it functioned. I was able to identify five themes that played a large part in what kind of clothing a character wore; first, the character's gender and/or sexuality; second, what species or "race" the character was; third, the character's socio-economic status; fourth, the degree to which the character was anthropomorphized; and, fifth, the context in which the character and its clothing appeared in a particular scene or narrative. I concluded that all of these factors played a part in determining, to some extent, the clothing worn by particular characters at particular times. However, certain patterns emerged from the analysis that could not be explained by these factors alone or in combination. Therefore, my analysis also investigates the individual and collective attitudes and desires of the men in the Disney studio who were responsible for creating these characters and the cultural conditions under which they were created. Drawing on literature from the psychoanalytic approach to film studies, I argue that the clothing choices spoke to an idealized fantasy world to which the animators (most importantly, Walt Disney himself), and possibly wider society, wanted to return.
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Underdeclarations Are Typical When Alcohol, Tobacco and Gambling Consumptions Are Questioned in Surveys. Recent Surveys on Expenditures on Lotteries Have Similar Problems: the Declared Expenditures Equal Between 60 to 65 Percent of the Revenues of the Various State-Run Lottery Entreprises. by Using the Relatively Accurate Data on the Revenue Side of This Industry One Can Deal with the Problem of Underdeclarations of Consumption Patterns in Suveys and Obtain Better Income Elasticity Estimates. the Statistical Analysis Permits to Test Specific Hypotheses on a Lottery Model Developed by Brenner, and Suggests Broader Implications Both for Future Econometric Analysis and the Confidence One Gives to Elasticity Estimates Derived From Aggregate Sectorial Data for All Consumption Expenditures.
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Many studies have focused on the concept of humanization of birth in normal pregnancy cases or at low obstetric risk, but no studies, at our knowledge, have so far specifically focused on the humanization of birth in both high-risk, and low risk pregnancies, in a highly specialized hospital setting. The present study thus aims to: 1) define the specific components of the humanized birth care model which bring satisfaction to women who seek obstetrical care in highly specialized hospitals; and 2) explore the organizational and cultural dimensions which act as barriers or facilitators for the implementation of humanized birth care practices in a highly specialized, university affiliated hospital in Quebec. A single case study design was chosen for this thesis. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews, field notes, participant observations, selfadministered questionnaire, relevant documents, and archives. The samples comprised: 11 professionals from different disciplines, 6 administrators from different hierarchical levels within the hospital, and 157 women who had given birth at the hospital during the study. The performed analysis covered both quantitative descriptive and qualitative deductive and inductive content analyses. The thesis comprises three articles. In the first article, we proposed a conceptual framework, based on Allaire and Firsirotu’s (1984) organizational culture theory. It attempts to examine childbirth patterns as an organizational cultural phenomenon. In our second article, we answered the following specific question: according to the managers and multidisciplinary professionals practicing in a highly specialized hospital as well as the women seeking perinatal care in this hospital setting, what is the definition of humanized care? Analysis of the data collected uncovered the following themes which explained the perceptions of what humanized birth was: personalized care, recognition of women’s rights, humanly care for women, family-centered care,women’s advocacy and companionship, compromise of security, comfort and humanity, and non-stereotyped pregnancies. Both high and low risk women felt more satisfied with the care they received if they were provided with informed choices, were given the right to participate in the decision-making process and were surrounded by competent care providers. These care providers who humanly cared for them were also able to provide relevant medical intervention. The professionals and administrators’ perceptions of humanized birth, on the other hand, mostly focused on personalized and family-centered care. In the third article of the thesis, we covered the dimensions of the internal and external components of an institution which can act as factors that facilitate or barriers that prevent, a specialized and university affiliated hospital in Quebec from adopting a humanized child birthing care. The findings revealed that both the external dimensions of a highly specialized hospital -including its history, society, and contingency-; and its internal dimensions -including culture, structure, and the individuals present in the hospital-, can all affect the humanization of birth care in such an institution, whether separately, simultaneously or in interaction. We thus hereby conclude that the humanization of birth care in a highly specialized hospital setting, should aim to meet all the physiological, as well as psychological aspects of birth care, including respect of the fears, beliefs, values, and needs of women and their families. Integration of competent and caring professionals and the use of obstetric technology to enhance the level of certainty and assurance in both high-risk and low risk women are both positive factors for the implementation of humanized care in a highly specialized hospital. Finally, the humanization of birth care approach in a highly specialized and university affiliated hospital setting demands a new healthcare policy. Such policy must offer a guarantee for women to have the place of birth, and the health care professional of their choice as well as those, which will enable women to make informed choices from the beginning of their pregnancy.
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La réflexion est considérée comme un élément significatif de la pédagogie et de la pratique médicales sans qu’il n’existe de consensus sur sa définition ou sur sa modélisation. Comme la réflexion prend concurremment plusieurs sens, elle est difficile à opérationnaliser. Une définition et un modèle standard sont requis afin d’améliorer le développement d’applications pratiques de la réflexion. Dans ce mémoire, nous identifions, explorons et analysons thématiquement les conceptualisations les plus influentes de la réflexion, et développons de nouveaux modèle et définition. La réflexion est définie comme le processus de s’engager (le « soi » (S)) dans des interactions attentives, critiques, exploratoires et itératives (ACEI) avec ses pensées et ses actions (PA), leurs cadres conceptuels sous-jacents (CC), en visant à les changer et en examinant le changement lui-même (VC). Notre modèle conceptuel comprend les cinq composantes internes de la réflexion et les éléments extrinsèques qui l’influencent.
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We take stock of the present position of compositional data analysis, of what has been achieved in the last 20 years, and then make suggestions as to what may be sensible avenues of future research. We take an uncompromisingly applied mathematical view, that the challenge of solving practical problems should motivate our theoretical research; and that any new theory should be thoroughly investigated to see if it may provide answers to previously abandoned practical considerations. Indeed a main theme of this lecture will be to demonstrate this applied mathematical approach by a number of challenging examples
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The low levels of unemployment recorded in the UK in recent years are widely cited as evidence of the country’s improved economic performance, and the apparent convergence of unemployment rates across the country’s regions used to suggest that the longstanding divide in living standards between the relatively prosperous ‘south’ and the more depressed ‘north’ has been substantially narrowed. Dissenters from these conclusions have drawn attention to the greatly increased extent of non-employment (around a quarter of the UK’s working age population are not in employment) and the marked regional dimension in its distribution across the country. Amongst these dissenters it is generally agreed that non-employment is concentrated amongst older males previously employed in the now very much smaller ‘heavy’ industries (e.g. coal, steel, shipbuilding). This paper uses the tools of compositiona l data analysis to provide a much richer picture of non-employment and one which challenges the conventional analysis wisdom about UK labour market performance as well as the dissenters view of the nature of the problem. It is shown that, associated with the striking ‘north/south’ divide in nonemployment rates, there is a statistically significant relationship between the size of the non-employment rate and the composition of non-employment. Specifically, it is shown that the share of unemployment in non-employment is negatively correlated with the overall non-employment rate: in regions where the non-employment rate is high the share of unemployment is relatively low. So the unemployment rate is not a very reliable indicator of regional disparities in labour market performance. Even more importantly from a policy viewpoint, a significant positive relationship is found between the size of the non-employment rate and the share of those not employed through reason of sickness or disability and it seems (contrary to the dissenters) that this connection is just as strong for women as it is for men
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At CoDaWork'03 we presented work on the analysis of archaeological glass composi- tional data. Such data typically consist of geochemical compositions involving 10-12 variables and approximates completely compositional data if the main component, sil- ica, is included. We suggested that what has been termed `crude' principal component analysis (PCA) of standardized data often identi ed interpretable pattern in the data more readily than analyses based on log-ratio transformed data (LRA). The funda- mental problem is that, in LRA, minor oxides with high relative variation, that may not be structure carrying, can dominate an analysis and obscure pattern associated with variables present at higher absolute levels. We investigate this further using sub- compositional data relating to archaeological glasses found on Israeli sites. A simple model for glass-making is that it is based on a `recipe' consisting of two `ingredients', sand and a source of soda. Our analysis focuses on the sub-composition of components associated with the sand source. A `crude' PCA of standardized data shows two clear compositional groups that can be interpreted in terms of di erent recipes being used at di erent periods, re ected in absolute di erences in the composition. LRA analysis can be undertaken either by normalizing the data or de ning a `residual'. In either case, after some `tuning', these groups are recovered. The results from the normalized LRA are di erently interpreted as showing that the source of sand used to make the glass di ered. These results are complementary. One relates to the recipe used. The other relates to the composition (and presumed sources) of one of the ingredients. It seems to be axiomatic in some expositions of LRA that statistical analysis of compositional data should focus on relative variation via the use of ratios. Our analysis suggests that absolute di erences can also be informative
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We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.
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Se formula y resuelve un modelo de cambio tecnológico ahorrador de factores de producción que considera tres factores: capital, trabajo y energía. El modelo cuenta con características específicas con respecto a la interacción n entre la energía (la cual, de acuerdo a su fuente puede ser renovable y no renovable) y el capital. Una vez esta economía se ha definido, se supone que evoluciona en tres etapas luego de su industrialización, durante las cuales el carácter renovable o no renovable de la energía influye su precio relativo, eficiencia y afecta también el nivel agregado de consumo y producción de la economía, sin que esta evolución lleve al colapso del sistema económico.
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Incluye anexo
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We run a standard income convergence analysis for the last decade and confirm an already established finding in the growth economics literature. EU countries are converging. Regions in Europe are also converging. But, within countries, regional disparities are on the rise. At the same time, there is probably no reason for EU Cohesion Policy to be concerned with what happens inside countries. Ultimately, our data shows that national governments redistribute well across regions, whether they are fiscally centralised or decentralised. It is difficult to establish if Structural and Cohesion Funds play any role in recent growth convergence patterns in Europe. Generally, macroeconomic simulations produce better results than empirical tests. It is thus possible that Structural Funds do not fully realise their potential either because they are not efficiently allocated or are badly managed or are used for the wrong investments, or a combination of all three. The approach to assess the effectiveness of EU funds should be consistent with the rationale behind the post-1988 EU Cohesion Policy. Standard income convergence analysis is certainly not sufficient and should be accompanied by an assessment of the changes in the efficiency of the capital stock in the recipient countries or regions as well as by a more qualitative assessment. EU funds for competitiveness and employment should be allocated by looking at each region’s capital efficiency to maximise growth generating effects or on a pure competitive.
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Populations of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) have declined markedly in North America since the early 1980s. When considering alternatives for achieving population recovery, it would be useful to understand how the rate of population growth is functionally related to the underlying vital rates and which vital rates affect population growth rate the most if changed (which need not be those that influenced historical population declines). To establish a more quantitative basis for learning about life history and population dynamics of Lesser Scaup, we summarized published and unpublished estimates of vital rates recorded between 1934 and 2005, and developed matrix life-cycle models with these data for females breeding in the boreal forest, prairie-parklands, and both regions combined. We then used perturbation analysis to evaluate the effect of changes in a variety of vital-rate statistics on finite population growth rate and abundance. Similar to Greater Scaup (Aythya marila), our modeled population growth rate for Lesser Scaup was most sensitive to unit and proportional change in adult female survival during the breeding and non-breeding seasons, but much less so to changes in fecundity parameters. Interestingly, population growth rate was also highly sensitive to unit and proportional changes in the mean of nesting success, duckling survival, and juvenile survival. Given the small samples of data for key aspects of the Lesser Scaup life cycle, we recommend additional research on vital rates that demonstrate a strong effect on population growth and size (e.g., adult survival probabilities). Our life-cycle models should be tested and regularly updated in the future to simultaneously guide science and management of Lesser Scaup populations in an adaptive context.