Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.

Cracking the language code : NAPLAN numeracy tests in years 7 and 9

Focusing on the use of language is a crucial strategy in good mathematics teaching and a teacher’s guidance can assist students to master the language of mathematics. This article discusses the statements with reference to recent year 7 and 9 NAPLAN numeracy tests. It draws the readers’ attention to the complexities of language in the field of mathematics. Although this article refers to NAPLAN numeracy tests it also offers advice about good teaching practice.

Lateral distortional buckling tests of a new hollow flange channel beam

The LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new hollow flange channel section developed by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills using their patented dual electric resistance welding and automated continuous roll-forming process. It has a unique geometry consisting of torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a relatively slender web. The LSBs are commonly used as flexural members in buildings. However, the LSB flexural members are subjected to lateral distortional buckling, which reduces their member moment capacities. Unlike the commonly observed lateral torsional buckling of steel beams, the lateral distortional buckling of LSBs is characterised by simultaneous lateral deflection, twist, and cross sectional change due to web distortion. An experimental study including more than 50 lateral buckling tests was therefore conducted to investigate the behaviour and strength of LSB flexural members. It included the available 13 LSB sections with spans ranging from 1200 to 4000 mm. Lateral buckling tests based on a quarter point loading were conducted using a special test rig designed to simulate the required simply supported and loading conditions accurately. Experimental moment capacities were compared with the predictions from the design rules in the Australian cold-formed steel structures standard. The new design rules in the standard were able to predict the moment capacities more accurately than previous design rules. This paper presents the details of lateral distortional buckling tests, in particular the features of the lateral buckling test rig, the results and the comparisons. It also includes the results of detailed studies into the mechanical properties and residual stresses of LSBs.

Vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete columns subjected to vehicular impacts

Columns are one of the key load bearing elements that are highly susceptible to vehicle impacts. The resulting severe damages to columns may leads to failures of the supporting structure that are catastrophic in nature. However, the columns in existing structures are seldom designed for impact due to inadequacies of design guidelines. The impact behaviour of columns designed for gravity loads and actions other than impact is, therefore, of an interest. A comprehensive investigation is conducted on reinforced concrete column with a particular focus on investigating the vulnerability of the exposed columns and to implement mitigation techniques under low to medium velocity car and truck impacts. The investigation is based on non-linear explicit computer simulations of impacted columns followed by a comprehensive validation process. The impact is simulated using force pulses generated from full scale vehicle impact tests. A material model capable of simulating triaxial loading conditions is used in the analyses. Circular columns adequate in capacity for five to twenty story buildings, designed according to Australian standards are considered in the investigation. The crucial parameters associated with the routine column designs and the different load combinations applied at the serviceability stage on the typical columns are considered in detail. Axially loaded columns are examined at the initial stage and the investigation is extended to analyse the impact behaviour under single axis bending and biaxial bending. The impact capacity reduction under varying axial loads is also investigated. Effects of the various load combinations are quantified and residual capacity of the impacted columns based on the status of the damage and mitigation techniques are also presented. In addition, the contribution of the individual parameter to the failure load is scrutinized and analytical equations are developed to identify the critical impulses in terms of the geometrical and material properties of the impacted column. In particular, an innovative technique was developed and introduced to improve the accuracy of the equations where the other techniques are failed due to the shape of the error distribution. Above all, the equations can be used to quantify the critical impulse for three consecutive points (load combinations) located on the interaction diagram for one particular column. Consequently, linear interpolation can be used to quantify the critical impulse for the loading points that are located in-between on the interaction diagram. Having provided a known force and impulse pair for an average impact duration, this method can be extended to assess the vulnerability of columns for a general vehicle population based on an analytical method that can be used to quantify the critical peak forces under different impact durations. Therefore the contribution of this research is not only limited to produce simplified yet rational design guidelines and equations, but also provides a comprehensive solution to quantify the impact capacity while delivering new insight to the scientific community for dealing with impacts.

Digit recognition using trispectral features

Features derived from the trispectra of DFT magnitude slices are used for multi-font digit recognition. These features are insensitive to translation, rotation, or scaling of the input. They are also robust to noise. Classification accuracy tests were conducted on a common data base of 256× 256 pixel bilevel images of digits in 9 fonts. Randomly rotated and translated noisy versions were used for training and testing. The results indicate that the trispectral features are better than moment invariants and affine moment invariants. They achieve a classification accuracy of 95% compared to about 81% for Hu's (1962) moment invariants and 39% for the Flusser and Suk (1994) affine moment invariants on the same data in the presence of 1% impulse noise using a 1-NN classifier. For comparison, a multilayer perceptron with no normalization for rotations and translations yields 34% accuracy on 16× 16 pixel low-pass filtered and decimated versions of the same data.

Quantification of the accuracy of MRI generated 3D models of long bones compared to CT generated 3D models

Orthopaedic fracture fixation implants are increasingly being designed using accurate 3D models of long bones based on computer tomography (CT). Unlike CT, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) does not involve ionising radiation and is therefore a desirable alternative to CT. This study aims to quantify the accuracy of MRI-based 3D models compared to CT-based 3D models of long bones. The femora of five intact cadaver ovine limbs were scanned using a 1.5T MRI and a CT scanner. Image segmentation of CT and MRI data was performed using a multi-threshold segmentation method. Reference models were generated by digitising the bone surfaces free of soft tissue with a mechanical contact scanner. The MRI- and CT-derived models were validated against the reference models. The results demonstrated that the CT-based models contained an average error of 0.15mm while the MRI-based models contained an average error of 0.23mm. Statistical validation shows that there are no significant differences between 3D models based on CT and MRI data. These results indicate that the geometric accuracy of MRI based 3D models was comparable to that of CT-based models and therefore MRI is a potential alternative to CT for generation of 3D models with high geometric accuracy.

Using Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors for vertical displacement measurement of bridges

In many bridges, vertical displacements are one of the most relevant parameters for structural health monitoring in both the short and long terms. Bridge managers around the globe are always looking for a simple way to measure vertical displacements of bridges. However, it is difficult to carry out such measurements. On the other hand, in recent years, with the advancement of fiber-optic technologies, fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors are more commonly used in structural health monitoring due to their outstanding advantages including multiplexing capability, immunity of electromagnetic interference as well as high resolution and accuracy. For these reasons, using FBG sensors is proposed to develop a simple, inexpensive and practical method to measure vertical displacements of bridges. A curvature approach for vertical displacement measurement using curvature measurements is proposed. In addition, with the successful development of a FBG tilt sensors, an inclination approach is also proposed using inclination measurements. A series of simulation tests of a full-scale bridge was conducted. It shows that both the approaches can be implemented to determine vertical displacements for bridges with various support conditions, varying stiffness (EI) along the spans and without any prior known loading. These approaches can thus measure vertical displacements for most of slab-on-girder and box-girder bridges. Moreover, with the advantages of FBG sensors, they can be implemented to monitor bridge behavior remotely and in real time. Further recommendations of these approaches for developments will also be discussed at the end of the paper.

The use of semantic priming as a paradigm for the detection of faking on self-report psychological tests

It is recognised that individuals do not always respond honestly when completing psychological tests. One of the foremost issues for research in this area is the inability to detect individuals attempting to fake. While a number of strategies have been identified in faking, a commonality of these strategies is the latent role of long term memory. Seven studies were conducted in order to examine whether it is possible to detect the activation of faking related cognitions using a lexical decision task. Study 1 found that engagement with experiential processing styles predicted the ability to fake successfully, confirming the role of associative processing styles in faking. After identifying appropriate stimuli for the lexical decision task (Studies 2A and 2B), Studies 3 to 5 examined whether a cognitive state of faking could be primed and subsequently identified, using a lexical decision task. Throughout the course of these studies, the experimental methodology was increasingly refined in an attempt to successfully identify the relevant priming mechanisms. The results were consistent and robust throughout the three priming studies: faking good on a personality test primed positive faking related words in the lexical decision tasks. Faking bad, however, did not result in reliable priming of negative faking related cognitions. To more completely address potential issues with the stimuli and the possible role of affective priming, two additional studies were conducted. Studies 6A and 6B revealed that negative faking related words were more arousing than positive faking related words, and that positive faking related words were more abstract than negative faking related words and neutral words. Study 7 examined whether the priming effects evident in the lexical decision tasks occurred as a result of an unintentional mood induction while faking the psychological tests. Results were equivocal in this regard. This program of research aligned the fields of psychological assessment and cognition to inform the preliminary development and validation of a new tool to detect faking. Consequently, an implicit technique to identify attempts to fake good on a psychological test has been identified, using long established and robust cognitive theories in a novel and innovative way. This approach represents a new paradigm for the detection of individuals responding strategically to psychological testing. With continuing development and validation, this technique may have immense utility in the field of psychological assessment.