Bayesian model averaging and identification of structural breaks in time series

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used for testing for multiple break points in univariate series using conjugate normal-gamma priors. This approach can test for the number of structural breaks and produce posterior probabilities for a break at each point in time. Results are averaged over specifications including: stationary; stationary around trend and unit root models, each containing different types and number of breaks and different lag lengths. The procedures are used to test for structural breaks on 14 annual macroeconomic series and 11 natural resource price series. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in all of the natural resource series and most of the macroeconomic series. Many of the series had multiple breaks. Our findings regarding the existence of unit roots, having allowed for structural breaks in the data, are largely consistent with previous work.

Structural changes in the epithelium of the small intestine and immune cell infiltration of enteric ganglia following acute mucosal damage and local inflammation

An acute enteritis is commonly followed by intestinal neuromuscular dysfunction, including prolonged hyperexcitability of enteric neurons. Such motility disorders are associated with maintained increases in immune cells adjacent to enteric ganglia and in the mucosa. However, whether the commonly used animal model, trinitrobenzene sulphonate (TNBS)-induced enteritis, causes histological and immune cell changes similar to human enteric neuropathies is not clear. We have made a detailed study of the mucosal damage and repair and immune cell invasion following intralumenal administration of TNBS. Intestines from untreated, sham-operated and TNBS-treated animals were examined at 3 h to 56 days. At 3 h, the mucosal surface was completely ablated, by 6 h an epithelial covering was substantially restored and by 1 day there was full re-epithelialisation. The lumenal epithelium developed from a squamous cell covering to a fully differentiated columnar epithelium with mature villi at about 7 days. Prominent phagocytic activity of enterocytes occurred at 1-7 days. A surge of eosinophils and T lymphocytes associated with the enteric nerve ganglia occurred at 3 h to 3 days. However, elevated immune cell numbers occurred in the lamina propria of the mucosa until 56 days, when eosinophils were still three times normal. We conclude that the disruption of the mucosal surface that causes TNBS-induced ileitis is brief, a little more than 6 h, and causes a transient immune cell surge adjacent to enteric ganglia. This is much briefer than the enteric neuropathy that ensues. Ongoing mucosal inflammatory reaction may contribute to the persistence of enteric neuropathy.

Determination of the numerical parameters of a continuous damage model for the structural analysis of clay brick masonry

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Structural Health Monitoring in Smart Structures Through Time Series Analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A new firefly luciferase with bimodal spectrum: Identification of structural determinants of spectral pH-sensitivity in firefly luciferases

Fireflies emit flashes in the green-yellow region of the spectrum for the purpose of sexual attraction. The bioluminescence color is determined by the luciferases. It is well known that the in vitro bioluminescence color of firefly luciferases can be shifted toward the red by lower pH and higher temperature; for this reason they are classified as pH-sensitive luciferases. However, the mechanism and structural origin of pH sensitivity in fireflies remains unknown. Here we report the cloning of a new luciferase from the Brazilian twilight active firefly Macrolampis sp2, which displays an unusual bimodal spectrum. The recombinant luciferase displays a sensitive spectrum with the peak at 569 nm and a shoulder in the red region. Comparison of the bioluminescence spectra of Macrolampis, Photinus and Cratomorphus firefly luciferases shows that the distinct colors are determined by the ratio between green and red emitters under luciferase influence. Comparison of Macrolampis luciferase with the highly similar North American Photinus pyralis luciferase (91%) showed few substitutions potentially involved with the higher spectral sensitivity in Macrolampis luciferase. Site-directed mutagenesis showed that the natural substitution E354N determines the appearance of the shoulder in the red region of Macrolampis luciferase bioluminescence spectrum, helping to identify important interactions and residues involved in the pH-sensing mechanism in firefly luciferases. © 2005 American Society for Photobiology.

Identification of structural parameters for active vibration control

The study of algorithms for active vibration control in flexible structures became an area of enormous interest for some researchers due to the innumerable requirements for better performance in mechanical systems, as for instance, aircrafts and aerospace structures. Intelligent systems, constituted for a base structure with sensors and actuators connected, are capable to guarantee the demanded conditions, through the application of diverse types of controllers. For the project of active controllers it is necessary, in general, to know a mathematical model that enable the representation in the space of states, preferential in modal coordinates to permit the truncation of the system and reduction in the order of the controllers. For practical applications of engineering, some mathematical models based in discrete-time systems cannot represent the physical problem, therefore, techniques of identification of system parameters must be used. The techniques of identification of parameters determine the unknown values through the manipulation of the input (disturbance) and output (response) signals of the system. Recently, some methods have been proposed to solve identification problems although, none of them can be considered as being universally appropriate to all the situations. This paper is addressed to an application of linear quadratic regulator controller in a structure where the damping, stiffness and mass matrices were identified through Chebyshev's polynomial functions.

A new microcontrolled structural health monitoring system based on the electromechanical impedance principle

This article presents a new method to detect damage in structures based on the electromechanical impedance principle. The system follows the variations in the output voltage of piezoelectric transducers and does not compute the impedance itself. The proposed system is portable, autonomous, versatile, and could efficiently replace commercial instruments in different structural health monitoring applications. The identification of damage is performed by simply comparing the variations of root mean square voltage from response signals of piezoelectric transducers, such as lead zirconate titanate patches bonded to the structure, obtained for different frequencies of the excitation signal. The proposed system is not limited by the sampling rate of analog-to-digital converters, dispenses Fourier transform algorithms, and does not require a computer for processing, operating autonomously. A low-cost prototype based on microcontroller and digital synthesizer was built, and experiments were carried out on an aluminum structure and excellent results have been obtained. © The Author(s) 2012.

Design and implementation of wireless sensor networks for impedance-based structural health monitoring using ZigBee and Global System for Mobile Communications

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Structural Investigation of Anti-Trypanosoma cruzi 2-Iminothiazolidin-4-ones Allows the Identification of Agents with Efficacy in Infected Mice

We modified the thiazolidinic ring at positions N3, C4, and C5, yielding compounds 6-24. Compounds with a phenyl at position N3, 15-19, 22-24, exhibited better inhibitory properties for cruzain and against the parasite than 2-iminothiazolidin-4-one S. We were able to identify one high-efficacy trypanocidal compound, 2-minothiazolidin-4-one 18, which inhibited the activity of cruzain and the proliferation of epirnastigotes and was cidal for trypomastigotes but was not toxic for splenocytes. Having located some of the structural determinants of the trypanocidal properties, we subsequently wished to determine if the exchange of the thiazolidine for a thiazole ring leaves the functional properties unaffected. We therefore tested thiazoles 26-45 and observed that they did not inhibit cruzain, but they exhibited trypanocidal effects. Parasite development was severely impaired when treated with 18, thus reinforcing the notion that this class of heterocycles can lead to useful cidal agents for Chagas disease.

Optimization of anti-Trypanosoma cruzi oxadiazoles leads to identification of compounds with efficacy in infected mice

We recently showed that oxadiazoles have anti-Trypanosoma cruzi activity at micromolar concentrations. These compounds are easy to synthesize and show a number of clear and interpretable structure-activity relationships (SAR), features that make them attractive to pursue potency enhancement. We present here the structural design, synthesis, and anti-T. cruzi evaluation of new oxadiazoles denoted 5a-h and 6a-h. The design of these compounds was based on a previous model of computational docking of oxadiazoles on the T. cruzi protease cruzain. We tested the ability of these compounds to inhibit catalytic activity of cruzain, but we found no correlation between the enzyme inhibition and the antiparasitic activity of the compounds. However, we found reliable SAR data when we tested these compounds against the whole parasite. While none of these oxadiazoles showed toxicity for mammalian cells, oxadiazoles 6c (fluorine), 6d (chlorine), and 6e (bromine) reduced epimastigote proliferation and were cidal for trypomastigotes of T. cruzi Y strain. Oxadiazoles 6c and 6d have IC50 of 9.5 +/- 2.8 and 3.5 +/- 1.8 mu M for trypomastigotes, while Benznidazole, which is the currently used drug for Chagas disease treatment, showed an IC50 of 11.3 +/- 2.8 mu M. Compounds 6c and 6d impair trypomastigote development and invasion in macrophages, and also induce ultrastructural alterations in trypomastigotes. Finally, compound 6d given orally at 50 mg/kg substantially reduces the parasitemia in T. cruzi-infected BALB/c mice. Our drug design resulted in potency enhancement of oxadiazoles as anti-Chagas disease agents, and culminated with the identification of oxadiazole 6d, a trypanosomicidal compound in an animal model of infection. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic approaches in civil engineering: generation of random fields and structural identification with genetic algorithms

The inherent stochastic character of most of the physical quantities involved in engineering models has led to an always increasing interest for probabilistic analysis. Many approaches to stochastic analysis have been proposed. However, it is widely acknowledged that the only universal method available to solve accurately any kind of stochastic mechanics problem is Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the key parts in the implementation of this technique is the accurate and efficient generation of samples of the random processes and fields involved in the problem at hand. In the present thesis an original method for the simulation of homogeneous, multi-dimensional, multi-variate, non-Gaussian random fields is proposed. The algorithm has proved to be very accurate in matching both the target spectrum and the marginal probability. The computational efficiency and robustness are very good too, even when dealing with strongly non-Gaussian distributions. What is more, the resulting samples posses all the relevant, welldefined and desired properties of “translation fields”, including crossing rates and distributions of extremes. The topic of the second part of the thesis lies in the field of non-destructive parametric structural identification. Its objective is to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of constituent bars in existing truss structures, using static loads and strain measurements. In the cases of missing data and of damages that interest only a small portion of the bar, Genetic Algorithm have proved to be an effective tool to solve the problem.

Creep and damage models for the service behaviour of structural members

Deformability is often a crucial to the conception of many civil-engineering structural elements. Also, design is all the more burdensome if both long- and short-term deformability has to be considered. In this thesis, long- and short-term deformability has been studied from the material and the structural modelling point of view. Moreover, two materials have been handled: pultruded composites and concrete. A new finite element model for thin-walled beams has been introduced. As a main assumption, cross-sections rigid are considered rigid in their plane; this hypothesis replaces that of the classical beam theory of plane cross-sections in the deformed state. That also allows reducing the total number of degrees of freedom, and therefore making analysis faster compared with twodimensional finite elements. Longitudinal direction warping is left free, allowing describing phenomena such as the shear lag. The new finite-element model has been first applied to concrete thin-walled beams (such as roof high span girders or bridge girders) subject to instantaneous service loadings. Concrete in his cracked state has been considered through a smeared crack model for beams under bending. At a second stage, the FE-model has been extended to the viscoelastic field and applied to pultruded composite beams under sustained loadings. The generalized Maxwell model has been adopted. As far as materials are concerned, long-term creep tests have been carried out on pultruded specimens. Both tension and shear tests have been executed. Some specimen has been strengthened with carbon fibre plies to reduce short- and long- term deformability. Tests have been done in a climate room and specimens kept 2 years under constant load in time. As for concrete, a model for tertiary creep has been proposed. The basic idea is to couple the UMLV linear creep model with a damage model in order to describe nonlinearity. An effective strain tensor, weighting the total and the elasto-damaged strain tensors, controls damage evolution through the damage loading function. Creep strains are related to the effective stresses (defined by damage models) and so associated to the intact material.