Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management and viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An important winemaking region is the Portuguese Douro Valley, which is known by its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between atmospheric factors and wine parameters is of great relevance for the region. A multivariate linear regression analysis of a long wine production series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall and cool temperatures during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development (February-March) and warm temperatures during flowering and berry development (May) are generally favourable to high production. The probabilities of occurrence of three production categories (low, normal and high) are also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show that both statistical models are valuable tools for predicting the production in a given year with a lead time of 3–4 months prior to harvest. These statistical models are applied to an ensemble of 16 regional climate model experiments following the SRES A1B scenario to estimate possible future changes. Wine production is projected to increase by about 10 % by the end of the 21st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25 % to over 60 %. Nevertheless, further model development will be needed to include other aspects that may shape production in the future. In particular, the rising heat stress and/or changes in ripening conditions could limit the projected production increase in future decades.

Variation on the effects of the 2003 CAP reform and regional differences in the Italian olive oil sector

This paper analyses the impacts of the 2003 CAP reform on the production of Italian olive oil controlling for the regional differences in olive oil production as well as for the differences between years. Italian olive oil production time series data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network for the 2000-2010 period at regional level is used to examine the effect of the 2003 Fischler reform on the production of olive oil. Production costs and payments received by farmers to support their income are considered. The data were collected at micro level based on a sample of farms representative of the production systems in the country. In order to consider the differences in production among the regions, eight representative regions in terms of surveyed farms are considered: Liguria, Toscana, Umbria, Lazio, Campania, Calabria, Puglia and Sicilia. We found that the most important factors affecting the production of olive oil are the area under olive groves and labour productivity. Results also show no evidence that the level of payments have an impact to the level of production, however, the type of payments has. Future work should explore the impact of the 2003 reform into the technical and production efficiency of the Italian olive oil farmers. It would be interesting to link the measures introduced by the cross compliance and the management practices of the different farms to have a more complete picture of the various parameters influencing the production of olive oil.

Impact of Laptev Sea flaw polynyas on the atmospheric boundary layer and ice production using idealized mesoscale simulations

The interaction between polynyas and the atmospheric boundary layer is examined in the Laptev Sea using the regional, non-hydrostatic Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) atmosphere model. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is used to consider the response of sea-ice surface temperature to idealized atmospheric forcing. The idealized regimes represent atmospheric conditions that are typical for the Laptev Sea region. Cold wintertime conditions are investigated with sea-ice–ocean temperature differences of up to 40 K. The Laptev Sea flaw polynyas strongly modify the atmospheric boundary layer. Convectively mixed layers reach heights of up to 1200 m above the polynyas with temperature anomalies of more than 5 K. Horizontal transport of heat expands to areas more than 500 km downstream of the polynyas. Strong wind regimes lead to a more shallow mixed layer with strong near-surface modifications, while weaker wind regimes show a deeper, well-mixed convective boundary layer. Shallow mesoscale circulations occur in the vicinity of ice-free and thin-ice covered polynyas. They are forced by large turbulent and radiative heat fluxes from the surface of up to 789 W m−2, strong low-level thermally induced convergence and cold air flow from the orographic structure of the Taimyr Peninsula in the western Laptev Sea region. Based on the surface energy balance we derive potential sea-ice production rates between 8 and 25 cm d−1. These production rates are mainly determined by whether the polynyas are ice-free or covered by thin ice and by the wind strength.

Simulation of Photovoltaic Panel Production as Complement to Ground Source Heat Pump System

This master thesis presents a new technological combination of two environmentally friendly sources of energy in order to provide DHW, and space heating. Solar energy is used for space heating, and DHW production using PV modules which supply direct current directly to electrical heating elements inside a water storage tank. On the other hand a GSHP system as another source of renewable energy provides heat in the water storage tank of the system in order to provide DHW and space heating. These two sources of renewable energy have been combined in this case-study in order to obtain a more efficient system, which will reduce the amount of electricity consumed by the GSHP system.The key aim of this study is to make simulations, and calculations of the amount ofelectrical energy that can be expected to be produced by a certain amount of PV modules that are already assembled on a house in Vantaa, southern Finland. This energy is then intended to be used as a complement to produce hot water in the heating system of the house beside the original GSHP system. Thus the amount of electrical energy purchased from the grid should be reduced and the compressor in the GSHP would need fewer starts which would reduce the heating cost of the GSHP system for space heating and providing hot water.The produced energy by the PV arrays in three different circuits will be charged directly to three electrical heating elements in the water storage tank of the existing system to satisfy the demand of the heating elements. The excess energy can be used to heat the water in the water storage tank to some extent which leads to a reduction of electricity consumption by the different components of the GSHP system.To increase the efficiency of the existing hybrid system, optimization of different PV configurations have been accomplished, and the results are compared. Optimization of the arrays in southern and western walls shows a DC power increase of 298 kWh/year compared with the existing PV configurations. Comparing the results from the optimization of the arrays on the western roof if the intention is to feed AC power to the components of the GSHP system shows a yearly AC power production of 1,646 kWh.This is with the consideration of no overproduction by the PV modules during the summer months. This means the optimized PV systems will be able to cover a larger part of summer demand compared with the existing system.

The priority of temporal aspects in L2-Swedish prosody : Studies in perception and production

Foreign accent can be everything from hardly detectable to rendering the second language speech unintelligible. It is assumed that certain aspects of a specific target language contribute more to making the foreign accented speech intelligible and listener friendly, than others. The present thesis examines a teaching strategy for Swedish pronunciation in second language education. The teaching strategy “Basic prosody” or BP, gives priority to temporal aspects of Swedish prosody, which means the temporal phonological contrasts word stress and quantity, as well as the durational realizations of these contrasts. BP does not prescribe any specific tonal realizations. This standpoint is based on the great regional variety in realization and distribution of Swedish word accents. The teaching strategy consists virtually of three directives: · Stress the proper word in the sentence. · Stress proper syllables in stressed words and make them longer. · Lengthen the proper segment – vowel or subsequent consonant – in the stressed syllable. These directives reflect the view that all phonological length is stress-induced, and that vowel length and consonant length are equally important as learning goals. BP is examined in the light of existing findings in the field of second language pronunciation and with respect to the phonetic correlates of Swedish stress and quantity. Five studies examine the relation between segment durations and the categorization made by native Swedish listeners. The results indicate that the postvocalic consonant duration contributes to quantity categorization as well as giving the proper duration to stressed syllables. Furthermore, native Swedish speakers are shown to apply the complementary /V: C/ - /VC:/ pattern also when speaking English and German, by lengthening postvocalic consonants. The correctness of the priority is not directly addressed but important aspects of BP are supported by earlier findings as well as the results from the present studies.

Trade or investment? location decisions under regional integration

This paper studies the production and trade patterns that may arise between two different countries if plant location is introduced as a first step in the producers' decision making. A three-stage game is used: the first deals with location and the next two with capacity and final sales decisions. Demand and cost structures differ by country, and the latter contain specific elements related to the foreign operation. The structure of possible Nash-equilibria is examined and an analysis of the changes in the solution, if the countries engage in an integration process, is made. As in previous models, though global welfare gains may not be very high, single country ones may be considerable, due to changes in the location of the plants. However, even if full integration takes place, global Marshallian welfare may decrease. Conditions which determine a tendency towards multinationalisation are obtained. Assuming a move toward integration, conditions are also provided to characterize when exporting will be preferred to local production. The fact that producers may retain a certain discriminating power, notwithstanding the elimination of barriers to arbitrage, creates a tendency to locate production in the country where prices are higher. This explains why welfare gains may not be obvious. An empirical illustration, with real data from two MERCOSUL countries (Brazil and Argentina) illustrates the possible outcomes.

Low cost BIST techniques for linear and non-linear analog circuits

With the ever increasing demands for high complexity consumer electronic products, market pressures demand faster product development and lower cost. SoCbased design can provide the required design flexibility and speed by allowing the use of IP cores. However, testing costs in the SoC environment can reach a substantial percent of the total production cost. Analog testing costs may dominate the total test cost, as testing of analog circuits usually require functional verification of the circuit and special testing procedures. For RF analog circuits commonly used in wireless applications, testing is further complicated because of the high frequencies involved. In summary, reducing analog test cost is of major importance in the electronic industry today. BIST techniques for analog circuits, though potentially able to solve the analog test cost problem, have some limitations. Some techniques are circuit dependent, requiring reconfiguration of the circuit being tested, and are generally not usable in RF circuits. In the SoC environment, as processing and memory resources are available, they could be used in the test. However, the overhead for adding additional AD and DA converters may be too costly for most systems, and analog routing of signals may not be feasible and may introduce signal distortion. In this work a simple and low cost digitizer is used instead of an ADC in order to enable analog testing strategies to be implemented in a SoC environment. Thanks to the low analog area overhead of the converter, multiple analog test points can be observed and specific analog test strategies can be enabled. As the digitizer is always connected to the analog test point, it is not necessary to include muxes and switches that would degrade the signal path. For RF analog circuits, this is specially useful, as the circuit impedance is fixed and the influence of the digitizer can be accounted for in the design phase. Thanks to the simplicity of the converter, it is able to reach higher frequencies, and enables the implementation of low cost RF test strategies. The digitizer has been applied successfully in the testing of both low frequency and RF analog circuits. Also, as testing is based on frequency-domain characteristics, nonlinear characteristics like intermodulation products can also be evaluated. Specifically, practical results were obtained for prototyped base band filters and a 100MHz mixer. The application of the converter for noise figure evaluation was also addressed, and experimental results for low frequency amplifiers using conventional opamps were obtained. The proposed method is able to enhance the testability of current mixed-signal designs, being suitable for the SoC environment used in many industrial products nowadays.

A cultura do girassol como estratégia de competitividade para o agronegócio regional e nacional: importância para a agroenergia e a alimentação

Equacionar aquecimento global, escassez de alimentos e a crescente necessidade energética, tornou-se, atualmente, o grande desafio mundial. Existem diversas culturas agrícolas que podem ser exploradas de maneira estratégica e assim colaborar com a solução deste problema. Dentre elas, pode-se destacar a cultura do girassol (Helianthus Annuus). O girassol é uma das quatro maiores culturas oleaginosas no mundo, cultivado com sucesso nos cinco continentes, ocupando uma área de cultivo superior a 22 milhões de hectares. A participação do Brasil nesse montante é inferior a 1%. Acredita-se que essa pequena participação se deva a fatores sócio-econômicos e tecnológicos. Salienta-se, porém que o Brasil, por suas vantagens comparativas naturais e vantagens competitivas construídas possui condições favoráveis para seu desenvolvimento. Diante dos fatos, o objetivo deste trabalho é aprofundar o conhecimento da cadeia produtiva do girassol e através de sua utilização como estratégia de competitividade, avaliar de maneira sistêmica os impactos na matriz agrícola do País. Dentre as inúmeras vantagens dessa cultura, pode-se destacar: características agronômicas, físicas, químicas, organolépticas e versatilidade, que permitem a utilização e otimização dos fatores de produção já disponíveis; época de plantio (adaptabilidade a diferentes condições edafoclimáticas), podendo ser cultivado desde o Rio Grande do Sul até o Estado de Roraima; sistema radicular (raiz pode chegar a dois metros de profundidade), permitindo o melhor aproveitamento dos nutrientes e da água do solo e promovendo a reciclagem de nutrientes; alto teor de óleo nas sementes (30% a 55%) e; alto valor comercial dos co-produtos. Esse conjunto de características é analisado sob a ótica da teoria das vantagens competitivas e das economias de escala e escopo, demonstrando que com inteligência e pragmatismo, a cultura do girassol pode repetir, com vantagens, o que a soja representou para o agronegócio brasileiro.

Tributação de energia elétrica e bem-estar social: uma análise regional

Os reflexos da tributação sobre o setor elétrico ultrapassam as questões meramente arrecadatórias de estados, municípios e União, envolvem toda a produção do país e o bem-estar de sua população. Neste contexto, e com o intuito de trazer as questões de eficiência e redistributividade ao ambiente de tributação de energia elétrica, o presente trabalho pretende apresentar um panorama da tributação atual do consumo residencial de energia elétrica, principalmente em relação ao ICMS, juntamente com um cálculo simplificado de alíquotas considerando dois modelos de tributação ótima, estabelecidos por F. R. Ramsey e Diamond e Mirrlees, a partir dos quais é possível realizar comparações em relação ao modelo atual e sintetizar uma visão nacional de uma tributação realizada em sua maior parte regionalmente. O primeiro modelo considera apenas eficiência na definição das alíquotas aplicadas aos produtos, partindo da premissa de que todos os consumidores são idênticos e não há preocupações com equidade. As elasticidades necessárias para aplicação do critério de Ramsey são estimadas a partir de dados em painel das 64 distribuidoras de energia elétrica do país, utilizando um modelo em dois estágios com variável instrumental. O segundo modelo, proposto por Diamond e Mirrlees, incorpora a equidade na modelagem, introduzindo a diferenciação entre os indivíduos.

Da bancada ao Bureau: análise do desenvolvimento da biotecnologia no Nordeste Brasileiro sob o enfoque de Sistema Regional de Inovação

The starting point of the present work consisted of investigating the development of biotechnology in the Northeast region of Brazil from the perspective of a Regional Innovation System (RIS). The theoretical framework adopted relied on the approaches and concepts presented by the Neo-Schumpeterian perspective. This framework was chosen because, by means of the Innovation System concept, this literature allows us to analyze the relationships and configurations of actors, as well as the role of the state and of social, science and technology, and economic policies in the studied region. The analysis considered four selected dimensions: physical infrastructure, human capital, scientific production, and funding. These variables were chosen because they allow us to verify the possibilities and limitations of developing a biotechnology RIS in the Northeast of Brazil, and these elements would help in answering the question behind this dissertation. The location of the physical infrastructure was determined by means of bibliographic and documental research and interviews with heads of institutions that do biotechnology research. Regarding human capital, the analysis focused on resource training in biotechnology, highlighting graduate courses and research groups in the area. To measure knowledge production, we delimited scientific collaboration among researchers in the field of biotechnology as the focus of this category. For the funding dimension, information was gathered from reports available at the websites of national and state funding agencies. The data was analyzed through method triangulation, involving quantitative and qualitative research stages. To back the analyses, we revisited the integration policies in the area of Science, Technology and Innovation. Our analysis has shown that these policies play a crucial role in the development of biotechnology in the region being studied. The data revealed that the physical infrastructure is concentrated in only three states (Bahia, Ceará, and Pernambuco). In this regard, the Northeast Biotechnology Network (Renorbio) stands out as a strategic actor, enabling states with poor infrastructure to develop research through partnerships with institutions located in another state. We have also verified that the practices involving human resource training and knowledge production are factors that enable the emergence of a regional system for biotechnology in the studied region. As limitations, we have verified the low immersion level of regional actors, the heterogeneity of socioeconomic indicators, the lack of financial resources, and a low innovation culture in the business sector. Overall, we have concluded that the development of a Regional Innovation System in Biotechnology, based on the current regional dynamics, depends on an effective change in the behavior of the social agents involved, both in the national and regional dimensions as well as in the public and private spheres

Bioenergia e exclusão regional: a não política nacional agroenergética e os girassóis do RN

This doctoral thesis presents an analysis of the production of bicarbonates and related regional development in Brazil. It is widely believed that one of Brazil s vocations lies in the agro-energy sector. However, current national agro-energy policies, together with the experience of Petrobras (the national oil company) in rural settlements in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, show that Brazil has fallen short of effectively including the North and Northeast regions of the country, let alone small-scale rural producers (residing in rural settlements or not), in the development process and related benefits from the country s participation in the current world energy grid. The methodology entails secondary research related to the theme, such as books, official documents, websites and statistical databases from diverse sources, in addition to an analysis of statements from interviews of Petrobras representatives and other important scientific, institutional and labor union authorities, in relation to agro-energy issues and the socio-economic participation of family-based agriculture in this process. Principal findings show a correlation between agro-energy and regional development, creating the potential for numerous opportunities and challenges. Findings demonstrate the possibility of reversing/reducing historically rooted indices of hunger and poverty that continue to devastate the North and Northeast regions. At the same time, the thesis points to a potentially catastrophic increase in regional disparities, should the present historic moment not be seized upon so as to include these regions. Classic examples of non-policy at the federal level are presented as evidence of the absence of a regionally focused agroenergy policy in the current government, reinforced by the experiences of Petrobras in the Rio Grande do Norte rural settlements. Finally, the thesis concludes that there is an urgent need to create a government-sponsored enterprise (with a structure similar to Petrobras) with the purpose of implementing a truly broad and inclusive development process for the bicarbonates production sector, while remaining attentive to Brazil s opportune and critical role in the world s current agro-energy scenario.

Indústria cultural e forró eletrônico no Rio Grande do Norte

The present study aimed to understand how and to what extent the electronic forró, currently hegemonic in the music market in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, establishes and maintains relations of domination in the social contexts in which it is produced, transmitted and received. Based, in significant form-content, on the writings of the first generation of theorists of the so-called Frankfurt School (Critical Theory), particularly with Theodor W. Adorno, and systematically using the contributions of the Cultural Studies (from the Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies of Birmingham) and of the sociology of Pierre Bourdieu, this study aimed to perform, in the fertile intersection of these references, a critical possibility of interpretation of the electronic forró predominantly spread in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. To this end, aiming at a better apprehension of the so-called capital circuits/culture circuits , this study resulted from a qualitative investment of research, based on structured interviews with musicians, entrepreneurs of the sector and music consumers, as well as on the analysis of the themes contained in the official discography of the electronic forró band called Garota Safada (Shameless Girl). As a general empirical conclusion, it was possible to infer that far from the significant presence of domination or mere prevalence of oppositions, there is a relational pluralism of forms of domination and ways of resistances present in the production and consumption of electronic forró, regardless of gender, age, income, education or place of residence. However, the artifices of the cultural industry has been shown to be efficient: from large-scale businessmen to small producers enabled by the so-called open markets . The currentness of the concept of cultural industry is based on the idea that its products are offered systematically (the systematic insistence of everything to everyone) and on the notion that its production primarily meets the administrative criteria of control over the effects on the receiver (capacity of prescription of desires). Thus, the Adornian reflection on the pseudo-individualization leads to the inference that even in some of the most apparent ways of negotiation and/or refusal regarding the consumption of forró, certain behaviors of the cultural industry still prevail both in the very (re)interpretation of the forró and in the choice of other music genres also standardized, rationalized and massified. Therefore, despite the absence of cause-effect relation and the recognition of the popular capacity of re-elaboration and contestation of the media consumption, some world views prevailing in relation to the electronic forró establish or, at least, support some hegemonic ideologies, especially those concerning the life style, consumption and genre relations (fun by all means). Therefore, due the massification of certain songs, some ways of dissemination of values, beliefs and feelings are potentially experienced from the electronic forró. So, it is presumable that in the current advance of the process of semiformation (Halbbildung), the habitus of a part of the youth from the state of Rio Grande do Norte reinforces and is reinforced by the centrality of the trinomial fun, love and sex present in the songs, emphasized in some constructive practices of sense and in certain flows of social significance

As cidades medias no desenvolvimento regional: um estudo sobre Pau dos Ferros (RN)

Esta tese versa sobre as cidades médias no atual contexto do desenvolvimento urbano brasileiro e nordestino. Na região Nordeste, o processo de urbanização foi lento, atomizado, geográfico e economicamente disperso, o que resultou numa rede urbana truncada, constituída principalmente por suas nove capitais regionais e cerca de duas dezenas de cidades de porte médio, em sua maioria, interiorizadas. Foi a partir dessa rede urbana nordestina interiorizada que nos propomos a estudar Pau dos Ferros, no Rio Grande do Norte e o papel que ela desempenha na rede urbana nordestina e potiguar. Compreender os determinantes da produção do espaço urbano-regional de Pau dos Ferros que o caracterizam como cidade média, com fins a refletir sobre o seu papel no desenvolvimento regional foi o objetivo geral desta pesquisa. Nossa hipótese é que, a despeito de um contingente populacional pequeno, Pau dos Ferros vem desempenhando na rede urbana do Nordeste e do Rio Grande do Norte as funções de cidade média, particularmente, na oferta dos serviços de educação superior e saúde, além da oferta de empregos, notadamente no comércio e nos serviços públicos, o que nos permitiu tratá-la à priori, a partir do conceito de cidade (inter) média. Para esta investigação, partimos da proposta de estudo e do pensamento de autores como Faria (1978), Benko (1999) e Brandão (2007), os quais propõem o estudo do urbano a partir de situações concretas que permitam compreender os fenomenos em sua múltiplas causalidades. Dessa forma, o fio condutor desta análise foi o modo como vem se reconfigurando as cidades médias e como essa reconfiguração tem afetado de diferentes formas as relações entre as cidades e entre as cidades e as regiões. Os resultados das análises apontaram que os investimentos públicos em saúde e educação têm contribuído para a atração de investimentos privados em suas respectivas áreas, e também em outras, o que tem ajudado a dinamizar a economia da cidade, inclusive modificado parcialmente sua estrutura ocupacional. Pau dos Ferros se destacou como um polo comercial e de serviços na rede urbana potiguar, formando um outlier no Alto Oeste, organizando uma bacia de empregos na sua área de influência que constatamos ser composta por 55 municípios do RN, CE e PB. Ao se consolidar como polo regional na oferta dos serviços de saúde e de educação superior, ampliou-se o fluxo de pessoas que realizam movimento pendular para trabalho e estudo. Em síntese, constatou-se que, a despeito do pequeno contingente populacional, a configuração urbano-regional de Pau dos Ferros, tanto em termos de sua dinâmica urbana, como de sua abrangência regional, fazem dela uma cidade média na rede urbana nordestina interiorizada

Biomassa e desenvolvimento sustentável e sócio regional no Brasil: uma análise à luz da Constituição Federal de 1988

It is verified worldwide an increasing concern with the protection of natural resources in the planet, a fact that became relevant in Brazil since the promulgation of the Constitution of 1988, based on the viewpoint of sustainable development, which seeks to promote economic activities in the country according to the need for conservation and preservation of natural resources for the use of present and future generations. In addition, we seek to reduce the differences that occur in our society by determining as a fundamental objective to be persecuted by the Federative Republic of Brazil the reduction of social and regional inequalities. A value that should also be observed in the context of economic activities developed here, since it is a general principle of financial and economic order of the country. Therefore, considering the exhaustion of world s reserves of fossil fuels, as well as the impacts on the environment, especially for the large emission of greenhouse effect gases, the debate about the need to change the global energy matrix increases while alternative energy sources appears as a bet to fulfill the contemporary aspirations for sustainability, and Brazil emerges in a very favorable position, because it has the essential natural conditions to allow this sector s full development. In this perspective, the work has the scope to analyze how the production of alternative energy sources may act in the search for concretization of constitutional values, to promote sustainable development for present and future generations, and to reduce regional and social inequalities in an attempt to improve the quality of life of the population. It will also be observed the current regulatory framework of alternative energy sources in the national laws to verify the existence of legal and institutional security, which is necessary to guarantee the full development of the sector in the country. And to investigate the expected results, it will be observed through the concrete evaluation of specific practices adopted in the industry, analyzing their actual compliance with the constitutional provisions under analysis, based on the examination of the possibility of using renewable biomass sources for biofuel production, promoting development to the country, indicating the opening lines about how this important sector can act to solve the energy challenge today

Gestão da satisfação e fidelidade do cliente :um estudo dos fatores que influenciam a satisfação e a fidelidade no turismo regional

This Thesis presents a contribution to the study of models of customer satisfaction, analyzing the relationship between construct satisfaction and its antecedents and consequences, carrying through a survey with tourists who live in states of northeast region, had used to travel by bus or their own car and used hotel of Natal in the period from march to june at 2004. The theory research is focused in concepts of customer satisfaction and loyalty, quality management system models and customer satisfaction measurement index models. For the field survey was applied a model with questions based on the norwegian customer satisfaction barometer - NCSB considered for Johnson et al., 2001 with 92 tourists. The results gotten for the multiple regression evidence that tourist satisfaction with respect to the hotel suffer fort influences of six drivers of quality and complaints management. However the factors that influencing tourist loyalty with hotel are affective commitment, satisfaction with the hotel and the complaints management