Applying Stafford and Warr’s Reconceptualization of Deterrence Theory to drug driving : can it predict those likely to offend?

In December 2007, random roadside drug testing commenced in Queensland, Australia. Subsequently, the aim of this study was to explore the preliminary impact of Queensland’s drug driving legislation and enforcement techniques by applying Stafford and Warr’s [Stafford, M. C., & Warr, M. (1993). A reconceptualization of general and specific deterrence. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 30, 123-135] reconceptualization of deterrence theory. Completing a comprehensive drug driving questionnaire were 899 members of the public, university students, and individuals referred to a drug diversion program. Of note was that approximately a fifth of participants reported drug driving in the past six months. Additionally, the analysis indicated that punishment avoidance and vicarious punishment avoidance were predictors of the propensity to drug drive in the future. In contrast, there were indications that knowing of others apprehended for drug driving was not a sufficient deterrent. Sustained testing and publicity of the legislation and countermeasure appears needed to increase the deterrent impact for drug driving.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Axial shortening in reinforced concrete members using vibration characteristics - Part 1 - Theory

Differential axial shortening in vertical members of reinforced concrete high-rise buildings occurs due to shrinkage, creep and elastic shortening, which are time dependent effects of concrete. This has to be quantified in order to make adequate provisions and mitigate its adverse effects. This paper presents a novel procedure for quantifying the axial shortening of vertical members using the variations in vibration characteristics of the structure, in lieu of using gauges which can pose problems in use during and after the construction. This procedure is based on the changes in the modal flexiblity matrix which is expressed as a function of the mode shapes and the reciprocal of the natural frequencies. This paper will present the development of this novel procedure.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Mesenchymal stem cells in osteoarthritis therapy : current status of theory, technology, and applications

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic, non-inflammatory type of arthritis, which usually affects the movable and weight bearing joints of the body. It is the most common joint disease in human beings and common in elderly people. Till date, there are no safe and effective diseases modifying OA drugs (DMOADs) to treat the millions of patients suffering from this serious and debilitating disease. However, recent studies provide strong evidence for the use of mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy in curing cartilage related disorders. Due to their natural differentiation properties, MSCs can serve as vehicles for the delivery of effective, targeted treatment to damaged cartilage in OA disease. In vitro, MSCs can readily be tailored with transgenes with anti-catabolic or pro-anabolic effects to create cartilage-friendly therapeutic vehicles. On the other hand, tissue engineering constructs with scaffolds and biomaterials holds promising biological cartilage therapy. Many of these strategies have been validated in a wide range of in vitro and in vivo studies assessing treatment feasibility or efficacy. In this review, we provide an outline of the rationale and status of stem-cell-based treatments for OA cartilage, and we discuss prospects for clinical implementation and the factors crucial for maintaining the drive towards this goal.

Numerical methods for second-order stochastic differential equations

We seek numerical methods for second‐order stochastic differential equations that reproduce the stationary density accurately for all values of damping. A complete analysis is possible for scalar linear second‐order equations (damped harmonic oscillators with additive noise), where the statistics are Gaussian and can be calculated exactly in the continuous‐time and discrete‐time cases. A matrix equation is given for the stationary variances and correlation for methods using one Gaussian random variable per timestep. The only Runge–Kutta method with a nonsingular tableau matrix that gives the exact steady state density for all values of damping is the implicit midpoint rule. Numerical experiments, comparing the implicit midpoint rule with Heun and leapfrog methods on nonlinear equations with additive or multiplicative noise, produce behavior similar to the linear case.

Revised reinforcement sensitivity theory : the impact of FFFS and stress on driving

This study investigated the effect of a fear-based personality trait, as conceptualised in Gray’s revised reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) by the strength of the fight/flight/freeze system (FFFS), on young people’s driving simulator performance under induced psychosocial stress. Seventy-one young drivers completed the Jackson-5 questionnaire of RST traits, followed by a psychosocial stress or relaxation induction procedure (random allocation to groups) and then a city driving simulator task. Some support was found for the hypothesis that higher FFFS sensitivity would result in poorer driving performance under stress, in terms of significantly poorer hazard responses, possibly due to an increased attentional focus on the aversive cues inherent in the stress induction leaving reduced attentional capacity for the driving task. These results suggest that stress may lead to riskier driving behaviour in individuals with fearful RST personality styles.

Adaptive dynamic path re-planning RRT algorithms with game theory for UAVs

The main aim of this paper is to describe an adaptive re-planning algorithm based on a RRT and Game Theory to produce an efficient collision free obstacle adaptive Mission Path Planner for Search and Rescue (SAR) missions. This will provide UAV autopilots and flight computers with the capability to autonomously avoid static obstacles and No Fly Zones (NFZs) through dynamic adaptive path replanning. The methods and algorithms produce optimal collision free paths and can be integrated on a decision aid tool and UAV autopilots.

Managing memory and reducing I/O cost for correlation matrix calculation in bioinformatics

The generation of a correlation matrix from a large set of long gene sequences is a common requirement in many bioinformatics problems such as phylogenetic analysis. The generation is not only computationally intensive but also requires significant memory resources as, typically, few gene sequences can be simultaneously stored in primary memory. The standard practice in such computation is to use frequent input/output (I/O) operations. Therefore, minimizing the number of these operations will yield much faster run-times. This paper develops an approach for the faster and scalable computing of large-size correlation matrices through the full use of available memory and a reduced number of I/O operations. The approach is scalable in the sense that the same algorithms can be executed on different computing platforms with different amounts of memory and can be applied to different problems with different correlation matrix sizes. The significant performance improvement of the approach over the existing approaches is demonstrated through benchmark examples.

Mainstreaming therapeutic jurisprudence and the adversarial paradigm—incommensurability and the possibility of a shared disciplinary matrix

Problem-solving courts appear to achieve outcomes that are not common in mainstream courts. There are increasing calls for the adoption of more therapeutic and problem-solving practices by mainstream judges in civil and criminal courts in a number of jurisdictions, most notably in the United States and Australia. Currently, a judge who sets out to exercise a significant therapeutic function is likely to be doing so in a specialist court or jurisdiction, outside the mainstream court system, and arguably, outside the adversarial paradigm itself. To some extent, this work is tolerated but marginalised. However, do therapeutic and problem-solving functions have the potential to help define, rather than simply complement, the role of judicial officers? The core question addressed in this thesis is whether the judicial role could evolve to be not just less adversarial, but fundamentally non-adversarial. In other words, could we see—or are we seeing—a juristic paradigm shift not just in the colloquial, casual sense of the word, but in the strong, worldview changing sense meant by Thomas Kuhn? This thesis examines the current relationship between adversarialism and therapeutic jurisprudence in the context of Kuhn’s conception of the transition from periods of ‘normal science’, through periods of anomaly and disciplinary crises to paradigm shifts. It considers whether therapeutic jurisprudence and adversarialism are incommensurable in the Kuhnian sense, and if so, what this means for the relationship between the two, and for the agenda to mainstream therapeutic jurisprudence. The thesis asserts that Kuhnian incommensurability is, in fact, a characteristic of the relationship between adversarialism and therapeutic jurisprudence, but that the possibility of a therapeutic paradigm shift in law can be reconciled with many adversarial and due process principles by relating this incommensurability to a broader disciplinary matrix.

Theory-based self-management programs for promoting recovery in community-dwelling stroke survivors : a systematic review

Background Post-stroke recovery is demanding. Increasing studies have examined the effectiveness of self-management programs for stroke survivors. However no systematic review has been conducted to summarize the effectiveness of theory-based stroke self-management programs. Objectives The aim is to present the best available research evidence about effectiveness of theory-based self-management programs on community-dwelling stroke survivors’ recovery. Inclusion criteria Types of participants All community-residing adults aged 18 years or above, and had a clinical diagnosis of stroke. Types of interventions Studies which examined effectiveness of a self-management program underpinned by a theoretical or conceptual framework for community-dwelling stroke survivors. Types of studies Randomized controlled trials. Types of outcomes Primary outcomes included health-related quality of life and self-management behaviors. Secondary outcomes included physical (activities of daily living), psychological (self-efficacy, depressive symptoms), and social outcomes (community reintegration, perceived social support). Search Strategy A three-step approach was adopted to identify all relevant published and unpublished studies in English or Chinese. Methodological quality The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for experimental studies. Data Collection A standardized JBI data extraction form was used. There was no disagreement between the two reviewers on the data extraction results. Data Synthesis There were incomplete details about the number of participants and the results in two studies, which makes it impossible to perform meta-analysis. A narrative summary of the effectiveness of stroke self-management programs is presented. Results Three studies were included. The key issues of concern in methodological quality included insufficient information about random assignment, allocation concealment, reliability and validity of the measuring instruments, absence of intention-to-treat analysis, and small sample sizes. The three programs were designed based on the Stanford Chronic Disease Self-management program and were underpinned by the principles of self-efficacy. One study showed improvement in the intervention group in family and social roles three months after program completion, and work productivity at six months as measured by the Stroke Specific Quality of Life Scale (SSQOL). The intervention group also had an increased mean self-efficacy score in communicating with physicians six months after program completion. The mean changes from baseline in these variables were significantly different from the control group. No significant difference was found in time spent in aerobic exercise between the intervention and control groups at three and six months after program completion. Another study, using SSQOL, showed a significant interaction effect by treatment and time on family roles, fine motor tasks, self-care, and work productivity. However there was no significant interaction by treatment and time on self-efficacy. The third study showed improvement in quality of life, community participation, and depressive symptoms among the participants receiving the stroke self-management program, Stanford Chronic Disease Self-management program, or usual care six months after program completion. However, there was no significant difference between the groups. Conclusions There is inconclusive evidence about the effectiveness of theory-based stroke self-management programs on community-dwelling stroke survivors’ recovery. However the preliminary evidence suggests potential benefits in improving stroke survivors’ quality of life and self-efficacy.

Control of an underactuated-slender-hull unmanned underwater vehicle using Port-Hamiltonian theory

This paper presents a control design for tracking of attitude and speed of an underactuated slender-hull unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). The control design is based on Port-Hamiltonian theory. The target dynamics (desired dynamic response) is shaped with particular attention to the target mass matrix so that the influence of the unactuated dynamics on the controlled system is suppressed. This results in achievable dynamics independent of uncontrolled states. Throughout the design, insight of the physical phenomena involved is used to propose the desired target dynamics. The performance of the design is demonstrated through simulation with a high-fidelity model.

Polarized infrared absorption spectrum of matrix-isolated methylperoxyl radicals, CH3OO (X)over-tilde 2A ''

We have used a tandem pair of supersonic nozzles to produce clean samples of CH3OO radicals in cryogenic matrices. One hyperthermal nozzle decomposes azomethane (CH3NNCH3) to generate intense pulses of CH3 radicals, While the second nozzle alternately fires a burst Of O-2/Ar at the 20 K matrix. The CH3/O-2/20 K argon radical sandwich acts to produce target methylperoxyl radicals: CH3 + O-2 --> CH3OO. The absorption spectra of the radicals are monitored with a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer. We report 10 of the 12 fundamental infrared bands of the methylperoxyl radical CH3OO, (X) over tilde (2)A", in an argon matrix at 20 K. The experimental frequencies (cm(-1)) and polarizations follow: the a' modes are 3032, 2957, 1448, 1410, 1180, 1109, 90, 492, while the a" modes are 3024 and 1434. We cannot detect the asymmetric CH3 rocking mode, nu(11), nor the torsion, nu(12). The infrared spectra of (CH3OO)-O-18-O-18, (CH3OO)-C-13, and CD3OO have been measured as well in order to determine the isotopic shifts. The experimental frequencies, {nu}, for the methylperoxyl radicals are compared to harmonic frequencies, {omega}, resulting from a UB3LYP/6-311G(d,p) electronic structure calculation. Linear dichroism spectra were measured with photooriented radical samples in order to establish the experimental polarizations of most vibrational bands. The methylperoxyl radical matrix frequencies listed above are within +/-2% of the gas-phase vibrational frequencies. A final set of vibrational frequencies for the H radical, are recommended. See also http://ellison.colorado.edu/methylperoxyl.

Random projections on manifolds of symmetric positive definite matrices for image classification

Recent advances suggest that encoding images through Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices and then interpreting such matrices as points on Riemannian manifolds can lead to increased classification performance. Taking into account manifold geometry is typically done via (1) embedding the manifolds in tangent spaces, or (2) embedding into Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). While embedding into tangent spaces allows the use of existing Euclidean-based learning algorithms, manifold shape is only approximated which can cause loss of discriminatory information. The RKHS approach retains more of the manifold structure, but may require non-trivial effort to kernelise Euclidean-based learning algorithms. In contrast to the above approaches, in this paper we offer a novel solution that allows SPD matrices to be used with unmodified Euclidean-based learning algorithms, with the true manifold shape well-preserved. Specifically, we propose to project SPD matrices using a set of random projection hyperplanes over RKHS into a random projection space, which leads to representing each matrix as a vector of projection coefficients. Experiments on face recognition, person re-identification and texture classification show that the proposed approach outperforms several recent methods, such as Tensor Sparse Coding, Histogram Plus Epitome, Riemannian Locality Preserving Projection and Relational Divergence Classification.