Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities

This master’s thesis examines budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities; an issue that has not received a lot of attention in the academic literature. Furthermore, this thesis investigates whether the current budgeting decision-making practices could be improved by using a new kind of budget decision-making tool that is based on presenting multiple investment or divestment alternatives simultaneously to the decision makers as a frontier, rather than one by one. In the empirical part of the thesis, the results from three case interviews are introduced in order to answer the research questions of the study. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that there is a need for the presented budgeting decision-making tool in Finnish municipalities. The current routine is seen as good even though the interviewees would warmly welcome the alternative method that would function as a linkage be-tween strategy and the budget. The results also indicate that even though municipalities are left with a lot of room in their budgeting decision-making routine, the routine closely, though not always purposely, follows given guidelines and legislation. The major problem in the current practices seems to be the lack of understanding, as the decision-makers find it hard fully to understand the multiplicative effects of the budget-related decisions.

Business intelligence viewpoint on managerial decision-making : Ill-structured problems and decision support systems

Vaikka liiketoimintatiedon hallintaa sekä johdon päätöksentekoa on tutkittu laajasti, näiden kahden käsitteen yhteisvaikutuksesta on olemassa hyvin rajallinen määrä tutkimustietoa. Tulevaisuudessa aiheen tärkeys korostuu, sillä olemassa olevan datan määrä kasvaa jatkuvasti. Yritykset tarvitsevat jatkossa yhä enemmän kyvykkyyksiä sekä resursseja, jotta sekä strukturoitua että strukturoimatonta tietoa voidaan hyödyntää lähteestä riippumatta. Nykyiset Business Intelligence -ratkaisut mahdollistavat tehokkaan liiketoimintatiedon hallinnan osana johdon päätöksentekoa. Aiemman kirjallisuuden pohjalta, tutkimuksen empiirinen osuus tunnistaa liiketoimintatiedon hyödyntämiseen liittyviä tekijöitä, jotka joko tukevat tai rajoittavat johdon päätöksentekoprosessia. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen osuus johdattaa lukijan tutkimusaiheeseen kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla. Keskeisimmät tutkimukseen liittyvät käsitteet, kuten Business Intelligence ja johdon päätöksenteko, esitetään relevantin kirjallisuuden avulla – tämän lisäksi myös dataan liittyvät käsitteet analysoidaan tarkasti. Tutkimuksen empiirinen osuus rakentuu tutkimusteorian pohjalta. Tutkimuksen empiirisessä osuudessa paneudutaan tutkimusteemoihin käytännön esimerkein: kolmen tapaustutkimuksen avulla tutkitaan sekä kuvataan toisistaan irrallisia tapauksia. Jokainen tapaus kuvataan sekä analysoidaan teoriaan perustuvien väitteiden avulla – nämä väitteet ovat perusedellytyksiä menestyksekkäälle liiketoimintatiedon hyödyntämiseen perustuvalle päätöksenteolle. Tapaustutkimusten avulla alkuperäistä tutkimusongelmaa voidaan analysoida tarkasti huomioiden jo olemassa oleva tutkimustieto. Analyysin tulosten avulla myös yksittäisiä rajoitteita sekä mahdollistavia tekijöitä voidaan analysoida. Tulokset osoittavat, että rajoitteilla on vahvasti negatiivinen vaikutus päätöksentekoprosessin onnistumiseen. Toisaalta yritysjohto on tietoinen liiketoimintatiedon hallintaan liittyvistä positiivisista seurauksista, vaikka kaikkia mahdollisuuksia ei olisikaan hyödynnetty. Tutkimuksen merkittävin tulos esittelee viitekehyksen, jonka puitteissa johdon päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan arvioida sekä analysoida. Despite the fact that the literature on Business Intelligence and managerial decision-making is extensive, relatively little effort has been made to research the relationship between them. This particular field of study has become important since the amount of data in the world is growing every second. Companies require capabilities and resources in order to utilize structured data and unstructured data from internal and external data sources. However, the present Business Intelligence technologies enable managers to utilize data effectively in decision-making. Based on the prior literature, the empirical part of the thesis identifies the enablers and constraints in computer-aided managerial decision-making process. In this thesis, the theoretical part provides a preliminary understanding about the research area through a literature review. The key concepts such as Business Intelligence and managerial decision-making are explored by reviewing the relevant literature. Additionally, different data sources as well as data forms are analyzed in further detail. All key concepts are taken into account when the empirical part is carried out. The empirical part obtains an understanding of the real world situation when it comes to the themes that were covered in the theoretical part. Three selected case companies are analyzed through those statements, which are considered as critical prerequisites for successful computer-aided managerial decision-making. The case study analysis, which is a part of the empirical part, enables the researcher to examine the relationship between Business Intelligence and managerial decision-making. Based on the findings of the case study analysis, the researcher identifies the enablers and constraints through the case study interviews. The findings indicate that the constraints have a highly negative influence on the decision-making process. In addition, the managers are aware of the positive implications that Business Intelligence has for decision-making, but all possibilities are not yet utilized. As a main result of this study, a data-driven framework for managerial decision-making is introduced. This framework can be used when the managerial decision-making processes are evaluated and analyzed.

Before internationalisation : reflections of lateral rigidity on managerial decision making

The purpose of the study is to analyse lateral rigidity in the framework of pre-internationalisation to find out its reflections on managerial decision making. The interest of the study lies in the intersection of the meaningful but relatively stagnant concept of lateral rigidity, and the pre-internationalisation phase of companies that has received only a limited amount of research attention. The theoretical basis for the study is drawn from managerial decision making and internationalisation literatures. Firstly, the study aims to define the concept of lateral rigidity in order to secondly find out how it influences managers’ pre-internationalisation decision making. The study is theoretical in nature, and is based solely on literature examination. Concept analysis method is used to determine the attributes of lateral rigidity for the purpose of recognising the concept in the pre-internationalisation framework. The attributes that are found to comprise lateral rigidity are culture, know-how, uncertainty and attitude. Furthermore, these attributes are more specifically found to consist of environmental, personal and operational matters. Through the analysis of the pre-internationalisation literature it is discovered that all the attributes appear there, and present a variety of influences on pre-internationalisation decision making that can be characterised as being negative. The study finds that culture influences managers’ decision making via subjective reasoning and behaviour that stem from a domestic inclination, and via unfamiliarity with foreign markets. Against assumption, home cultural factors, e.g. values and customs, do not appear to have an influence. Know-how is found to influence decision making via managers’ previous experiences, subjective abiding perceptions, and the usage of previous operation patterns. Uncertainty, then again, influences managers’ risk perception, unfamiliarity avoidance, and the scope of potential international operations. Attitude is found to have a robust influence on managerial decision making via the usage of familiar processes and decision regimes, subjective preference of convention, and plausible results of operations. Ergo, the effects of lateral rigidity on managers show to represent an encumbrance in the pre-internationalisation phase; even though internationalisation would take place, the related decisions and actions are highly constrained. Especially the subjectivity of managers is seen to have a meaningful role in the decision making process.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Impact of Word-of-Mouth on consumer decision-making: An information processing perspective in the context of a high-involvement service

This doctoral study conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of Word-of-Mouth (WOM) on marketing-relevant outcomes such as attitudes and consumer choice, during a high-involvement and complex service decision. Due to its importance to decisionmaking, WOM has attracted interest from academia and practitioners for decades. Consumers are known to discuss products and services with one another. These discussions help consumers to form an evaluative opinion, as WOM reduces perceived risk, simplifies complexity, and increases the confidence of consumers in decisionmaking. These discussions are also highly impactful as WOM is a trustworthy source of information, since it is independent from the company or brand. In responding to the calls for more research on what happens after WOM information is received, and how it affects marketing-relevant outcomes, this dissertation extends prior WOM literature by investigating how consumers process information in a highinvolvement service domain, in particular higher-education. Further, the dissertation studies how the form of WOM influences consumer choice. The research contributes to WOM and services marketing literature by developing and empirically testing a framework for information processing and studying the long-term effects of WOM. The results of the dissertation are presented in five research publications. The publications are based on longitudinal data. The research leads to the development of a proposed theoretical framework for the processing of WOM, based on theories from social psychology. The framework is specifically focused on service decisions, as it takes into account evaluation difficulty through the complex nature of choice criteria associated with service purchase decisions. Further, other gaps in current WOM literature are taken into account by, for example, examining how the source of WOM and service values affects the processing mechanism. The research also provides implications for managers aiming to trigger favorable WOM through marketing efforts, such as advertising and testimonials. The results provide suggestions on how to design these marketing efforts by taking into account the mechanism through which information is processed, or the form of social influence.

Gendered attitudes and family planning decision-making in Honduras

This study examines gendered attitudes and family planning in the Central American country of Honduras using a feminist perspective. Specifically, this study investigates the relationships between gendered attitudes (i.e., male oriented or non-male oriented attitudes) and who makes decisions about contraceptive use and family size among married and common-law Hondurans. This study also attempts to account for social elements such as gendered attitudes, education, economics, environment and demographics that may act to limit or enhance women's agency in reproductive decisionmaking. Furthermore, gender is examined to determine whether these relationships depend on the gender of the respondents. Two national Honduran surveys from 2001 are used in a secondary analysis, specifically muUinomial logisfic regression. Findings indicate that women reporting non-male oriented attitudes are significantly more likely to indicate that they (the wives) make the contraceptive decisions. Moreover, both men and women reporting non-male oriented attitudes are significantly more likely to indicate making contraceptive decisions together. Both of these effects remain significant when other social factors included in the analyses, though part of the effect is explained by education and economics. Similar effects are found in terms of family size decisions. Limitations and directions for future research are discussed.

Factors affecting treatment decision making for women with breast cancer

This study examined the factors affecting treatment decision making for young women with early stage breast cancer. Thirty women, aged 35 to 52 years, were presented information about two equally effective chemotherapy treatments following surgery for breast cancer using an educational instrument called a "decision board." Although equally effective, the treatments differ with regards to side effects and treatment schedule. The purpose of this research was to investigate what factors affect the decision-making process. Following administration of the decision board, women were given a take-home version to review and asked to return one to two weeks later with a decision, at which time they completed a questionnaire. theoretical framework for this study was constructed from the literature on self-directed learning and critical thinking. The Overall, the factors rated most important to the treatment decision were related to quality of life, side effects, and length of treatment. Five factors were found to be rated significantly different by the women who chose one treatment versus the other in terms of importance to their decision. These were side effects in general, vomiting, hair loss, family role, and the number of trips to the cancer centre required for treatment.Implications and recommendations for patient education, research, and practice evolved from the findings of this study.

Educational Technology Decision-Making: A Case Study on Technology Acquisition for 746,000 Ontario Students

Very little research has examined K–12 educational technology decision-making in Canada. This collective case study explores the technology procurement process in Ontario’s publicly funded school districts to determine if it is informed by the relevant research, grounded in best practices, and enhances student learning. Using a qualitative approach, 10 senior leaders (i.e., chief information officers, superintendents, etc.) were interviewed. A combination of open-ended and closed-ended questions were used to reveal the most important factors driving technology acquisition, research support, governance procedures, data use, and assessment and return on investment (ROI) measures utilized by school districts in their implementation of educational technology. After participants were interviewed, the data were transcribed, member checked, and then submitted to “Computer-assisted NCT analysis” (Friese, 2014) using ATLAS.ti. The findings show that senior leaders are making acquisitions that are not aligned with current scholarship and not with student learning as the focus. It was also determined that districts struggle to use data-driven decision-making to support the governance of educational technology spending. Finally, the results showed that districts do not have effective assessment measures in place to determine the efficacy or ROI of a purchased technology. Although data are limited to the responses of 10 senior leaders, findings represent the technology leadership for approximately 746,000 Ontario students. The study is meant to serve as an informative resource for senior leaders and presents strategic and research-validated approaches to technology procurement. Further, the study has the potential to refine technology decision-making, policies, and practices in K–12 education.

A theoretical and experimental dissociation of two models of decision‐making

La prise de décision est un processus computationnel fondamental dans de nombreux aspects du comportement animal. Le modèle le plus souvent rencontré dans les études portant sur la prise de décision est appelé modèle de diffusion. Depuis longtemps, il explique une grande variété de données comportementales et neurophysiologiques dans ce domaine. Cependant, un autre modèle, le modèle d’urgence, explique tout aussi bien ces mêmes données et ce de façon parcimonieuse et davantage encrée sur la théorie. Dans ce travail, nous aborderons tout d’abord les origines et le développement du modèle de diffusion et nous verrons comment il a été établi en tant que cadre de travail pour l’interprétation de la plupart des données expérimentales liées à la prise de décision. Ce faisant, nous relèveront ses points forts afin de le comparer ensuite de manière objective et rigoureuse à des modèles alternatifs. Nous réexaminerons un nombre d’assomptions implicites et explicites faites par ce modèle et nous mettrons alors l’accent sur certains de ses défauts. Cette analyse servira de cadre à notre introduction et notre discussion du modèle d’urgence. Enfin, nous présenterons une expérience dont la méthodologie permet de dissocier les deux modèles, et dont les résultats illustrent les limites empiriques et théoriques du modèle de diffusion et démontrent en revanche clairement la validité du modèle d'urgence. Nous terminerons en discutant l'apport potentiel du modèle d'urgence pour l'étude de certaines pathologies cérébrales, en mettant l'accent sur de nouvelles perspectives de recherche.

Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

Emociones y toma de decisiones éticas: desarrollo e implicaciones para la empresa

Los líderes organizacionales se deben enfrentar a retos ambientales del mundo de los negocios y diversas presiones que los ponen día a día en un alto riesgo ético. Sortear dichos riesgos ha demandado cambios sustanciales en las dinámicas de las organizaciones contemporáneas, por lo que las exigencias a los directivos de tomar decisiones acertadas en situaciones de alta complejidad moral son cada vez mayores. Estas decisiones involucran un comportamiento ético de quien las toma, lo cual a su vez está mediado por sus emociones.

La disonancia cognitiva y trampa de la memoria en decisiones de Inversión: caso colombiano

Este documento es el resultado de una investigación bajo el enfoque de Finanzas Corporativas del Comportamiento, disciplina relevante en el mundo financiero desde el 2002 y que hasta el momento poco se ha investigado en Colombia. Esta difiere del supuesto tradicional de la racionalidad de los individuos en la toma de decisiones financieras, ya que pueden ser influenciadas por sesgos cognitivos y emocionales que la teoría ortodoxa no tiene en cuenta en sus supuestos. Esta investigación busca indagar, desde el punto de vista conceptual y mediante el análisis de resultados de estudio de campo con operadores del mercado bursátil colombiano, sobre la posible presencia de elementos comportamentales en las decisiones de inversión. Los sesgos que se evaluaron fueron: disonancia cognitiva, heurístico de disponibilidad y sesgo de confirmación. Para la recolección de fuentes primarias, una encuesta fue enviada a los operadores Colombianos, categorizados en operadores con experiencia y operadores jóvenes. Después del filtro, 142 encuestas fueron seleccionadas para el análisis. Los principales hallazgos fueron que los jóvenes son más propensos a experimentar disonancia cognitiva y heurístico de disponibilidad y en ambas categorías, los sesgos analizados influencian medianamente la toma de decisiones de inversión.

Autoconcepto académico y toma de decisiones en el alumnado de bachillerato. 'Academic self-concept and decision making of secondary school students'.

Resumen tomado de la publicación. Con el apoyo económico del departamento MIDE de la UNED. Contiene anexo de preguntas

Programa de autoayuda para la toma de decisiones al finalizar la educación secundaria obligatoria (ESO) : CESOF-06 = Self-applied decision making program at the end of the compulsory secondary education (ESO) : CESOF-06.

Resumen basado en el del autor